21 September 2015

Gambler's Odds On The GOP Presidential Race

Prediction markets are making the following primary nomination predictions in each of the two major parties:


Jeb Bush 34.3%
Marco Rubio 16.0% (low volume trading)
Donald Trump 12.0%
Carly Fiorina 9.7%
Scott Walker 5.7%
Ben Carson 4.6%
Chris Christie 3.8%
John Kasich 3.5%
Ted Cruz 3.1%
Mike Huckabee 2.8%

Lindsey Graham 0.4%
Rand Paul 0.3%
Bobby Jindal 0.3%
Mitt Romney 0.1%

UPDATE:  Scott Walker held a press conference to drop out of the race today after polling in the less than 0.5% zone.  Neophytes and Jeb Bush rule the roost.


Hillary Clinton 65.6%
Joe Biden 18.3%
Bernie Sanders 12.3%

Elizabeth Warren 0.8%
Al Gore 0.4%
Martin O'Malley 0.1%
Andrew Cuomo 0.1%
Lincoln Chafee 0.1%

From here.

I think that the markets are significantly overvaluing both Rubio and Biden, and while Martin OMalley's odds may be dismal he does have the edge of actually running for the office unlike four of the other candidates at the bottom of the Democratic race polling, which ought to push him up to 1.0% or so, at least.

But, I agree that the markets are probably a more accurate predictor of the outcome than the latest polling in these races. I'd also note that insincere manipulation of election futures markets is not unprecedented.

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