11 September 2015

Republican Primary Race Still Wacky

CNN has averaged polls over the last two months to see who will participate in their GOP debate round (rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent):

1) Donald Trump: 23.9
2) Jeb Bush: 11.5
3) Scott Walker: 9.4
4) Ben Carson: 8.9
5) Ted Cruz: 6.3
6) Marco Rubio: 5.6
7) Mike Huckabee: 5.6
8) Rand Paul: 4.7
9) John Kasich: 3.2
10) Chris Christie: 3.1
11) Carly Fiorina: 2.2
12) Rick Perry: 1.8
13) Rick Santorum: 1.2
14) Bobby Jindal: 1.1
15) George Pataki: 0.5
16) Lindsey Graham: 0.5

Meanwhile, Rick Perry has dropped out, and Scott Walker's support is exaggerated by a two month average - his support in Iowa has fallen to 3% (down from 25% in February).

Where do the GOP candidates stand now ?

1) Donald Trump 32%
2) Ben Carson 19%
3) Jeb Bush 9%
4) Ted Cruz 7%
5) Mike Huckabee 5%
6) Scott Walker 5%

All others 3% or less (with Marco Rubio falling 5 points in the last month).

Pundit chatter about a ceiling on Trump support limited to the crazy uncles of the Republican party isn't holding true so far.  Trump is polling roughly the same on the GOP side as Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are on the Democratic Party side (supposedly, there are other candidates running for the Democratic nomination, but they have utterly failed to be noticed by anyone other than their local political base and extended family).

A majority of GOP or GOP leaning voters support someone who has never held public office in any capacity in the Presidential race.  And, at the back of the pack, another candidate with no experience in public office, Carly Fiorina, is the only candidate who is rising in the polls instead of falling.

Jeb Bush is the strongest polling candidate with any political experience, and honestly, I still think he has the best shot at winning the Republican party nomination.  But, a lot of the seasoned pols are dead in the water in the face of Trump's TV star power, and the polls are definitely not stable at this point.


Dave Barnes said...

I prefer http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary for a glimpse at poll standings.
Scotty is at 4.6%

andrew said...

Thanks the for tip.