31 March 2016

Rule 40(b) Forecloses White Knight Bid At GOP Convention In Cleveland In July

It is theoretically possible for the Republican party to change its rules to allow someone other than Trump or Cruz to be nominated (due to a rule called 40(b) that requires a nominee to have won eight states, as Trump already has, unless no one does) if no candidate gets a majority of the delegates going into the convention.

But, in practice, this is virtually impossible to do given the political realities of the GOP primary and caucus process this year.

There is no realistic chance that Kaisch will win majorities in eight states after winning only one so far, with only about a third of the states left.  But, delegates that he wins do help deny Trump a majority leaving open the possibility that non-Trump delegates would choose Cruz instead if the overwhelmingly preferred Cruz over Trump, which is certainly not a foregone conclusion and realistically, is unlikely (particularly given that the Ben Carson has already endorsed Trump).

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