State Governor's Races In 2020
There are 11 seats for state governor facing voters in 2020.
Real Clear politics rates 2 of the 4 seats currently held by Democrats (Delaware and Washington State) as safe, and four of the seven seats currently held by Republicans (Utah, North Dakota, Indiana and West Virginia) as safe.
Two of the seats currently held by Democrats (Montana and North Carolina) are listed as "toss ups".
Two of the seats currently held by Republicans (Missouri and New Hampshire) are rated as "leans GOP", and one of the seats currently held by a Republican (Vermont) is rated as "likely GOP".
The U.S. Senate Races In 2020
Democrats need 50 seats to control the U.S. Senate if Biden wins the Presidential race (a net gain of three seats), and 51 if Trump wins the Presidential race (a net gain of four seats). It is likely that Democrats will regain control of the U.S. Senate. (Biden has a clear lead over Trump in Presidential polling at the moment.)
If the election were held today, the Democrats would have a U.S. Senate majority, gaining six seats (Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Montana and North Carolina), and losing Alabama.
From here.
Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire and New Mexico have Democrats running for re-election in the U.S. Senate this year, all of whom are likely to win re-election.
The winner of the GOP primary in Alabama, Tommy Tuberville, led incumbent Democrat Doug Jones, by eight percentage points in the only head to head poll available at Real Clear Politics in this race, taken in in February 2020. I am certain that the race is tighter today than it was then (I've seen polls touting it as a toss up), but it is still the most likely seat for the Democrats to lose in the U.S. Senate.
Cory Gardner of Colorado is considered the most likely incumbent Republican to lose his seat in his race against John Hickenlooper.
Incumbent Republicans in Arizona, in two separate races (one for a full term and one to fill a vacancy) in Georgia (GA1, GA2), in Iowa, in Maine, in Montana, in North Carolina and even in Texas Texas, as well as the open seat in Kansas now held by a Republican, are considered vulnerable to Democratic upsets.
It is a long shot, but some polling has shown top GOP Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky in a toss up race with his Democratic challenger.
The U.S. House Races In 2020
A majority of the U.S. House is 218 seats.
Real Clear Politics rates 180 U.S. House seats held by Democrats as "safe" for the Democrats, 20 as "likely Dem" and 14 as "leans Dem" for a total of 214 seats currently held by Democrats and leaning towards ending up that way again in November.
It rates 159 U.S. House seats held by Republicans as "safe" for Republicans, 17 as "likely GOP" and 14 as "leans GOP" for a total of 190 seats currently held by Republicans and leaning towards ending up that way again in November.
The leaves 31 seats rates as "toss ups" currently held by 19 Democrats and 12 Republicans. Democrats can lose all twelve of the "toss up" seats currently held by Republicans and 15 out of 19 of the "toss up" seats currently held by Democrats and retain control of the U.S. House.
The fourth Congressional District in Colorado (Western Slope and Southern Colorado) is currently listed as a safe GOP seat, but now that the incumbent Republican Congressman was ousted in a primary to a radical right newcomer, this seat could be in play as well.
In practice, the odds of the Democrats losing control of the U.S. House in November are low.
Given the way that the political winds are blowing this year, it seems more likely that the Democrats will pick up seats in the U.S. House than it is that they will lose any net seats there. In "generic vote" polling, Democrats are preferred over Republicans for the U.S. House by 8.6 percentage points.
The seats it rates at "toss up" are:
| CA21 | CA25 | CA39 |
| GA6 | GA7 | IA1 |
| IA2 | IA3 | IL13 |
| IL14 | ME2 | MI3 |
| MN7 | NE2 | NJ3 |
| NM2 | NY2 | NY11 |
| NY22 | OK5 | PA1 |
| PA8 | PA10 | SC1 |
| TX10 | TX22 | TX23 |
| TX24 | UT4 | VA2 |
| VA7 |
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