Why Is Society Unraveling?

David Brooks catalogs the myriad things going on in our society recently, which he implicitly attributes to general malaise without considering specific causes.

I'm not as prone to drop them in one bucket. I recap his parade of horribles and make efforts below to explain them, one by one, taking the path of the fox rather than the hedgehog, as is my tendency.

But, before I do that, the executive summary comes down to two big trends:

1. COVID-19 pandemic driven causes, in logical, but not always easy to foresee, ways. In many cases, this is intersecting with conservative anti-science sentiment, driven by the second factor, causing American society to react poorly to this pandemic.

2. The long run divide in our economy as white blue collar men have seen their economic prospects stagnate and grow insecure, while educated elites have prospered and their political power in addition to their economic power has dwindled, weakening families and radicalizing the American right wing. This decline, in turn, is driven by a combination of automation, offshoring of less skilled labor, low skilled immigration (mostly from Latin America) that has brought in more intelligent people with similar skills but a better work ethic competing for the same jobs, and improved employment options for women in the workforce who have also been more receptive to getting the educations that the economy needs.

Breaking this down by individual items, here's what is going on, with quoted material in block quotes and my comments in italics.

In 2020, the number of miles Americans drove fell 13 percent because of the pandemic, but the number of traffic deaths rose 7 percent. . . . in the first half of 2021, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, motor vehicle deaths were up 18.4 percent even over 2020. Contributing factors, according to the agency, included driving under the influence, speeding and failure to wear a seatbelt.

Possibly due to COVID driven declining traffic enforcement and generally increased alcohol abuse.

the number of altercations on airplanes has exploded,

New COVID rules facing pushback by conservatives who oppose them because they don't believe in science. 

the murder rate is surging in cities, 

More gun purchases driven by fear on anarchy, reduced incarceration, more drug trade driven gang conflict, more idle people, police cowed by BLM protests and pushback on bad tactics, pandemic driven economic and general stresses and chaos. 

drug overdoses are increasing, Americans are drinking more, 

Substance abuse is driven by stress and trauma (and being able to get away with it during non-employment and home employment). 

nurses say patients are getting more abusive . . .

Hospitals are being overloaded by people (enough on its own), who don't believe in the diseases they're dying from due to COVID and related conservative driven misinformation (which makes them behave badly).

Schools have seen an increase in both minor incidents, like students talking in class, and more serious issues, such as fights and gun possession. In Dallas, disruptive classroom incidents have tripled this year compared with prepandemic levels . . . 

School situations have grown chaotic with shifting modes of unfamiliar instruction from instructors not trained to do that and lots of stress at home due to COVID.

drug deaths had risen almost continuously for more than 20 years, but “overdoses shot up especially during the pandemic.” For much of this time the overdose crisis has been heavily concentrated among whites, but in 2020, the essay observed, “the Black rate exceeded the white rate for the first time.” . . . 

A twenty year trend fueled by legal opioid producers. Deaths of despair driven by a bimodal economy and pandemic driven lack of hope. About half of homeless deaths are now due to opioid overdoses. The deaths are also, in part, driven by increased illicit distribution of fentanyl, an ultra-potent opioid variant, hitting the market, possibly driven by interdiction efforts or scarce supply due to Afghanistan control driven supply shocks, that surged since it has more potency per weight, but is hence easier to screw up. 

Hate Crime Reports in U.S. Surge to the Highest Level in 12 Years, F.B.I. Says.” The F.B.I. found that between 2019 and 2020 the number of attacks targeting Black people, for example, rose to 2,871 from 1,972. . . . 

Republican power driven by a bimodal economy that has left poorly educated white men behind who fear their loss of power.

In January 2021, more than two million firearms were bought, The Washington Post reported, “an 80 percent year-over-year spike and the third-highest one-month total on record.” . . . 

Gun ownership always spikes when Democrats get elected, more conspiracy thinking on the right, and high profile murder rate growth in big cities along with BLM driven street protests contribute too.

the share of Americans who give to charity is steadily declining. In 2000, 66.2 percent of households made a charitable donation. But by 2018 only 49.6 percent did. The share who gave to religious causes dropped as worship service attendance did. But the share of households who gave to secular causes also hit a new low, 42 percent, in 2018. . . . 

The elimination of tax breaks both during life (more people qualify for the standard deduction  which is larger due to elimination of personal exemptions) and at death (due to rising gift and estate tax thresholds) for charitable giving, and declining church attendance (both as a long term trend and COVID specific) may both play a major part. 

This is not even to mention the parts of the deteriorating climate that are hard to quantify — the rise in polarization, hatred, anger and fear. . . .

Republican power driven by a bimodal economy that has left poorly educated white men behind who are resorting to new tactics and driving push-back.

“U.S. Church Membership Falls Below Majority for First Time.”

This is a long running trend driven by a more scientific and affluent and economically secure world, accentuated by COVID impairing church attendance. 

In 2019, the Pew Research Center had a report, “U.S. Has World’s Highest Rate of Children Living in Single Parent Households.”

This is a long term trend continuing since the 1970s driven by the growing economic stagnation and insecurity of blue collar men and a lack of a social safety net sensitive to that trend. It is also, in part, a function of affluence that makes it possible to have an economically viable single parent household.