Ukraine War Update

The Ukraine War is nine months old.

Territorial Impact

The Russian invasion has allowed it to control a modest amount of Ukrainian territory although it has slowly but surely been losing ground. A recent map of the situation is as follows:

Economic Impact

The world has imposed severe economic, immigration, and cultural sanctions on Russia. Europe has declared it to be a state sponsor of terrorism and war crimes investigations of Russian forces are underway. Most major multinational businesses that once did business in Russia have pulled out. Sanctions on Russian petroleum exports temporary caused oil prices to spike leading to global inflation, but oil prices have returned to normal. China and India have not entirely cut off Russia, but have been lukewarm towards it. Iran has supplied Russia with drones.

De facto embargoes of shipping in the Black Sea from Ukraine and interrupted farming have impaired food supplies for many countries, especially in the Middle East and Africa. 

Natural gas supplies from Russia to Europe where it is the main supplier of many countries have been severely curtailed leading to potentially great hardship in Europe as the winter approaches.

Young adult men and the economic elite have fled the country to avoid the draft and to remain a part of the global economy. Many Russian oligarchs have had their prized private planes and yachts seized.

Protests were muted at first in Russia as the government kept a tight lid on dissent but are starting to emerge.

Casualties

There have been many civilian and soldier casualties. A reasonable estimate is that 27,000 Russian soldiers and their allies have been killed and that more than 77,000 have been wounded, captured, or a missing. The chart below is from Wikipedia:

More than ten million Ukrainians are refugees fleeing the war.

Russian Equipment Losses

Russia's equipment losses in the Ukraine War are greater than the sum of all of the equipment of most of the world's military forces.

This also does not reflect scarce military equipment resources like guided missiles that have been used and are no longer available to the Russian military. 

Neither its losses nor its spent resources are easily replaced because its industrial base is fairly weak and cut off from international markets for the most part. Russia's ability to wage conventional warfare against other countries in Europe has been greatly curtailed in the short to medium term as a result. Moreover, the credibility of the military it does have has been greatly undermined by its military defeats in the Ukraine War.

According to the Oryx blog which is prefaced as follows:

This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Small arms, ATGMs, MANPADS, loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles, trailers and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned.

Tanks (1505)

• 53 T-62
• 46 T-64
• 863 T-72
• 342 T-80
• 31 T-90
• 170 Unknown tank

Armored Fighting Vehicles (721)

• 25 BRM-1K reconnaissance vehicle
• 4 BRDM-2
• 2 BRDM-2RKhb chemical reconnaissance vehicle
• 2 BRDM-2-based ZS-82 PsyOps vehicle
• 506 MT-LB
• 1 Vityaz DT-10PM articulated tracked carrier
• 3 Vityaz DT-30 articulated tracked carrier
• 2 GAZ-3344-20 'Aleut' articulated tracked carrier
• 1 2S1 with ZU-23 AA gun
• 10 Unknown BTR-D/BMD-2
• 166 Unknown AFV

Infantry Fighting Vehicles (1758) 

• 234 BMP-1
• 648 BMP-2
• 85 Unknown BMP-1/2
• 199 BMP-3
• 5 MT-LBM 6MB
• 3 BMO-T
• 176 BMD-2
• 57 BMD-4M
• 352 BTR-82A(M)

Armored Personnel Carriers (271)

• 1 BTR-60PB
• 5 BTR-70
• 135 BTR-80
• 46 Unknown BTR-80/BTR-82A
• 2 Remdiesel Z-STS Akhmat
• 3 Ural-4320VV
• 66 BTR-D
• 13 BTR-MDM Rakushka

Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Vehicles (44)

• 22 KamAZ-63968 Typhoon
• 2 KamAZ-435029 Patrol-A
• 8 K-53949 Typhoon-K
• 12 K-53949 Linza

Infantry Mobility Vehicles (168)

Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps (1992)

Command Posts And Communications Stations (194)

Engineering Vehicles And Equipment (245)

Self-Propelled Anti-Tank Missile Systems (29)

Heavy Mortars (25)

Artillery Support Vehicles And Equipment (82)

Towed Artillery (141)

Self-Propelled Artillery (289)

Multiple Rocket Launchers (154)

Anti-Aircraft Guns (16)

Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Guns (22)

Surface-To-Air Missile Systems (80)

Radars (21)

Jammers And Deception Systems (21)

Aircraft (63)

• 1 MiG-31BM fighter aircraft
• 11 Su-30SM multirole aircraft
• 1 Su-35S multirole aircraft
• 23 Su-25 close air support aircraft
• 1 Su-24MR tactical reconnaissance aircraft
• 7 Su-24M/MR strike/tactical reconnaissance aircraft
• 16 Su-34 strike aircraft
• 1 Su-34M strike aircraft
• 1 Unknown Su-30/Su-34/Su-35
• 1 An-26 transport aircraft

Helicopters (71)

• 16 Mi-8 transport helicopter
• 3 Mi-24P attack helicopter
• 1 Mi-24V/P attack helicopter
• 6 Mi-35M attack helicopter
• 1 Mi-24P/35M attack helicopter
• 11 Mi-28 attack helicopter
• 27 Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter
• 6 Unknown helicopter

Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (4)

Reconnaissance Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (145)

Naval Ships (12)

• 1 Project 1164 Slava-class guided missile cruiser Moskva
• 5 Project 03160 Raptor-class patrol boat
• 1 Project 02510 BK-16E high-speed assault boat
• 1 Project 1171 Tapir-class landing ship Saratov (BDK-65)
• 1 Project 775 Ropucha-class landing ship
• 1 Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft
• 1 Project 22870 SB-739 Vasily Bekh rescue tug
• 1 Project 266M Natya-class minesweeper