17 December 2024

U.S. Military Spending Since 1900

U.S. military spending in 2024 was at or very near its lowest percentage of GDP since 1940 (an 84 year low). It declined incrementally during the Biden administration.


 From here.

In 2022 it was 3.45% of GDP. The all time low on this chart was 3.09% in 1999. The percentage is probably a lower in 2023 and 2024 with a projected 3.3% in 2023, and 3.0% in 2024.


From here.


From here.

The number of active duty U.S. military personnel is also at or near a record low since 1940 (without adjusting for population which has grown 2.54 times since then). There are currently 1,288,549 active duty U.S. military personnel.

The Army at 443,444 is at the lowest level since 1940. 

The Navy is at 328,774, and was lower in 2012-2015 and in 2017-2018, when it fell to as little as 321,300 in 2013, but is close to the bottom.

The Air Force is 326,065, and was lower in 2015-2018, when it fell to as little as 312,195 in 2015 (it was also lower in 1941 as part of the Army), but is still close to the bottom.

The Marine Corp was 168,032. It was lower for some period between 1945 and 1955, with a force of 74,279 in 1950.

Adjusting for population, the current number of U.S. active duty personnel is equivalent to 507,303 in 1940, when the actual number of active duty military personnel was 508,274.

11 December 2024

Foreign Born Population At Record High

Immigration was a central part of Trump's Presidential campaign. His arguments that immigration was linked to crime or terrorism or a net fiscal burden on governments or economic harm were just purely untrue. His claim that illegal immigration amounts to an "invasion" of the United States in a constitutional sense is also far outside the mainstream of legal interpretation.

But, there has indeed been a lot of immigration in the post-pandemic period (some of just replacing people who left for the pandemic and are now coming back). 

The percentage of people residing in the United States who are foreign-born is record high. It is roughly three times as great as it was when I was born (when it was at an all time low).

I'm not in the least troubled by this surge in immigration, which is on balance a good thing for the country, even the undocumented immigration, although our nation's immigration laws are definitely broken.
The combined increases of legal and illegal immigration have caused the share of the U.S. population born in another country to reach a new high, 15.2 percent in 2023, up from 13.6 percent in 2020. The previous high was 14.8 percent, in 1890.
Source: Analysis of data from the Congressional Budget Office and U.S. Census Bureau
The rate at which people immigrated to the U.S. in the last four years has also been a record high, and according to the Goldman Sachs analysis found in the New York Times article (dated today) that all of the quotations and charts in this post derive from, about 60% of net immigration in the last four years has been undocumented.
Annual net migration — the number of people coming to the country minus the number leaving — averaged 2.4 million people from 2021 to 2023, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Total net migration during the Biden administration is likely to exceed eight million people.

That’s a faster pace of arrivals than during any other period on record, including the peak years of Ellis Island traffic, when millions of Europeans came to the United States. Even after taking into account today’s larger U.S. population, the recent surge is the most rapid since at least 1850:
The numbers in the Times analysis include both legal and illegal immigration. About 60 percent of immigrants who have entered the country since 2021 have done so without legal authorization, according to a Goldman Sachs report based on government data.

The story also analyzes the reasons behind this surge in immigration:

Several factors caused the surge, starting with President Biden’s welcoming immigration policy during his first three years in office. Offended by Donald J. Trump’s harsh policies — including the separation of families at the border — Mr. Biden and other Democrats promised a different approach. “We’re a nation that says, ‘If you want to flee, and you’re fleeing oppression, you should come,’” Mr. Biden said during his 2020 presidential campaign.

After taking office, his administration loosened the rules on asylum and other immigration policies, making it easier for people to enter the United States. Some have received temporary legal status while their cases wend through backlogged immigration courts. Others have remained without legal permission.
Outside causes have also played an important role in the surge. Turmoil in Haiti, Ukraine and Venezuela caused desperate people to flee their home countries. The growth of smuggler networks run by Mexican drug cartels allowed more people to reach the U.S. border. 
But the Biden administration’s policy appears to have been the biggest factor: After Mr. Biden tightened enforcement in June, the number of people crossing the border plummeted.

10 December 2024

A Clean Slate For Property Rights, Entities, Federalism, And Related Matters

There are some economic and legal reforms which are hard to make now, but starting with a clean slate would have been better to have made differently, or which are just structural reforms.

Mineral Rights And Water Rights

* All mineral rights should be owned by the government and merely leased by firms exploiting them.

* The rights of surface owners of land over mineral rights leased by the government should follow the Colorado rule (which requires underground mining that preserves the rights to support of the surface owners) and not the Wyoming rule (which permits strip mining).

* All water rights should be owned by the government and leased annually to water users. All water users in the same watershed would pay the same lease rate based upon an auction. Market failures and transaction costs cause inefficient overallocation of water at very cheap prices to agricultural users to the detriment of fishing, recreational use, and municipal water use.

* Grazing land would be primarily publicly owned with the right to graze cattle on open ranges leased.

Wildlife Management

* To the extent possible, management of wildlife populations with natural predators, like bears, wolves, and mountain lions, would be preferred to hunting.

Real Property Rights

* Legal life estates and other present and future interests in real property should not be permitted. Someone wishing to create the equivalent to a life estate could establish a trust in which some beneficiaries had equitable life estates and others had equitable remainder interests. Existing legal life estates could be deemed to be trusts in which the present interest holder is the trustee for the benefit of themselves and all future interest holders.

* The race-notice statute should be modified so that a person with an interest in real property created by a written instrument could only benefit from the notice provisions for up to four months from the date of the instrument to gain priority over a recorded instrument creating rights in land. Written instruments creating an interest in real property that are more than four years old would be subordinate to the rights of the owners and encumbrances of record.

* Judgment liens would be possible to record against all real property in the state owned by a debtor in a single state filing.

* Ancillary probate of real estate would be replaced with a requirement to give full faith and credit to an executor, personal representative, or administrator appointed in the place of domicile, subject only to state homestead exemptions.

Property Taxes

* Education would be funded through state income, sales, and gifts and estate taxes, not through local property taxes.

* Non-profits, including churches and state government property, would not be exempt from property taxes, but state government property would be assessed at the state level rather than at the local level.

* Property tax assessors, and state and county treasurers, would be civil service appointments, not elected.

Limited Liability Entities and Judgment Liens

* Ownership interests in entities would have to be recorded with a state registrar, although this information would only be available to interested parties. 

* Trusts would be registered with the state registrar rather than with courts of probate jurisdiction.

* Trusts and estates would be treated as entities for state law purposes.

* Judgment liens should be possible to record against all interests in entities in a state with a single state filing.

* All limited liability entities would be required to be bonded against the claims of trade creditors and insured to standards established by regulation, with the bonding agent and insurers made a matter of public record. The directors, officers, managers, and partners of the entity would have joint and several personal liability for any failure to do so, guaranteed by the owners if they, collectively, were unable to satisfy any debts of the company that should have been bonded or insured.

Local v. State Authority

* Occupational licensing in the construction trades, and building codes, should be regulated at the state level, rather than the local level.

* Local governments should not be permitted to have their own courts and instead would enforce their rights, including ordinance violations, in the appropriate state courts.

* Local governments should not be permitted to enact ordinances for which incarceration is a penalty, other than contempt of court punishments for violations of injunctions previously imposed against a particular defendant in a state court proceeding brought by the local government against that particular defendant.

* Zoning and use regulation by local governments would be limited at the state level.

Copyrights and Intellectual Property

* Copyrights should have a much shorter term, such as the pre-1976 rule of 26 years from publication and an additional 26 years if a copyright registration is renewed, which a separate regime protecting the exclusive right of the authors to publish and register unpublished works. Works not published within 26 years of the death of the author would be in the public domain. This might be accomplished with a one time buyout of existing copyrights more than 52 years old at fair market value or a nominal amount for unmarketed and unappraised copyrights.

* There would be mandatory licensing of copyrighted works, handled by one or more non-profits for performances of all musical works, all orphan works, translations of works for which had not been translated into a particular language pursuant to a license within some designated period of time after the publication of the work in its original language, and almost all other derivative works.

* The scope of the derivative work right for copyrights would be greatly narrowed.

* Statutory damages for copyright violations would be abolished. Economic damages for copyright violations would be limited to unjust enrichment relative to licensing the work, or lost profits relative to licensing the work, whichever was greater.

* Common law trademark rights in trademarks not registered in the principal register under the Lanham Act (including rights under state trademark filings) would be exclusively a matter of federal law.

* Rights of publicity would be exclusively a matter of federal law.

* Royalty income from intellectual property would be taxable where the sale giving rise to the transfer takes place, not where the owner of the intellectual property is domiciled.

Federal Court Jurisdiction

* Federal court diversity jurisdiction not involving international diversity would be abolished.

* Federal question jurisdiction in cases between private parties not involving other specific grants of federal court jurisdiction (e.g. in the cases of intellectual property, civil rights, certain class actions, and election law cases) would be abolished.

* Federal crimes for matters that can be prosecuted under state law, like bank robbery, intrastate controlled substances violations, and most murders, would be repealed.

* Felonies committed in Indian Country would be governed by new Indian Country District Courts and a U.S. Court of Appeals for Indian Country, and a related Indian Country law enforcement agency, rather than by the relevant U.S. attorney's office and the FBI.

* The lowest level immigration offense of illegal entry would be made a civil offense governed primarily by the immigration courts, and decriminalized (this makes up a significant share of the total criminal docket in many U.S. District Courts).

* The immigration courts would be reformed and made Article III courts. A right to an attorney at public expense would be established in the immigration courts.

08 December 2024

Super Deadly Cow Flu Is One Mutation Away From Causing Mass Human Death

We are one random mutation away from a strain of cow flu that could kill 30% of the people who get it.
In 2021, a highly pathogenic influenza H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b virus was detected in North America that is capable of infecting a diversity of avian species, marine mammals, and humans. In 2024, clade 2.3.4.4b virus spread widely in dairy cattle in the US, causing a few mild human cases, but retaining specificity for avian receptors. Historically, this virus has caused up to 30% fatality in humans, so Lin et al. performed a genetic and structural analysis of the mutations necessary to fully switch host receptor recognition. A single glutamic acid to leucine mutation at residue 226 of the virus hemagglutinin was sufficient to enact the change from avian to human specificity. In nature, the occurrence of this single mutation could be an indicator of human pandemic risk.
Via Marginal Revolution (linking to another article calling it the most foreseeable catastrophe in human history).

Business Owners Hide Personal Expenses In Firms

The tax evasion caused by shifting personal expenses to businesses in Portugal is pretty severe. It also happens in U.S. firms, but my intuition is that the magnitude of this corruption is smaller.

I present evidence that firms serve as tax-free consumption vehicles. Drawing on a unique combination of data from an electronic invoicing program in Portugal (e-Fatura), I show that individuals who control firms shift 36% of their monthly personal expenditures to firms and 31% of their household expenditures. 
The effects are driven by owner-managers of small closely held firms through expenditure categories on the border between business and final consumption but are widespread among business managers across the whole income distribution. 
My results suggest that the government revenue losses due to consumption through the firm amount to 1% of GDP. Reallocating the tax savings and personal expenditures hidden within f irms to the reported household income of business managers increases the Gini by one percentage point and the top 1% income share by half a percentage point.

From David Leite, "The Firm As Tax Shelter" (September 2024).

MIT Students Make Up 80% of Putnam Competition Winners

One of the biggest national contests in math for college students in the U.S. and Canada is the Putnam competition. About 80% of the winners attend MIT. Many of the rest attend Harvard, a few hundred yards away. The prize is nominal, but the reputational benefits of winning and scholarships are immense for anyone interested in pursuing a career in mathematics and it can open the door to large merit scholarships as well. Per the Wikipedia link above:

It is widely considered to be the most prestigious university-level mathematics competition in the world, and its difficulty is such that the median score is often zero or one (out of 120) despite being primarily attempted by students specializing in mathematics.

The World Turns

You take a week off and the world turns.

South Korea has an attempted self-coup a.k.a. autogolpe, which failed within hours, probably irrevocably dooming the President's conservative leaning party. The attempt failed because in South Korea, even conservatives have some morals and respect the rule of law. Heads are starting to roll (figuratively) at high levels in the South Korean government, although the President has so far postponed an immediate impeachment or resignation. The brief and illegal imposition of martial law was trigged when the majority in parliament tried to impeach several corrupt prosecutors, challenged the President's personal scandals, and wouldn't agree to his budget proposals and the President wanted to shut down his legislative opposition. I fear that the U.S. will not perform as well in the near future when faced with a similar challenge. Republicans are spineless and no longer care about democracy or the rule of law.

In Syria, the thirteen year civil war has ended with the sudden collapse of the Assad regime, now that his two key sponsors, Russian and Iraq, are distracted, ending half a century of dictatorship. The U.S. continues to bomb ISIS forces in parts of Syria that neither the Assad regime, nor the main rebel groups, control.

Russia's economy is starting to seriously stumble two and three-quarters years after it restarted it war with Ukraine.

The Prime Minister of the Bahamas has rejected a request by President-elect and convicted felon awaiting sentencing, Donald Trump, to receive people he wants to deport from the U.S.

Trump has also admitted that his tariff plan will cause U.S. prices to surge, even though he was elected with a central campaign tenant of reducing inflation, and that he plans to carry out many baseless federal criminal prosecutions as a way of securing revenge against his enemies (something that President Biden could short circuit with preemptive pardons). 

Biden, of course, pardoned his son who was convicted of a federal charge, now that he is a lame duck, which is less honorable than trying to thwart Trump. If he has the guts he will commute the sentences of everyone on federal death row to life in prison, thwarting Trump's efforts to execute more people has he did in the final days of his first term. Of course, Trump won't officially be the President elect until the Presidential electors vote on December 17, 2024, although the outcome is a foregone conclusion.

Also, UnitedHealthcare's CEO was murdered in Manhattan. Murder is bad, but he surely deserved it. Behind every great fortune is a great crime.  Big health care companies murder people by spreadsheet every day.

Netflix has a new show called Jentry Chau vs. the Underworld described as follows:


But since Texas is basically hell already, and is already fully of creatures more terrifying than those in any myth, this appears to be basically an evil v. evil conflict, so it might not be all that interesting.

Quote Of The Day

 


From "A Terrified Teacher At Ghoul School" (Episode 9).