The Shutdown Continues

The federal government shutdown is on day 26, the second longest of all time, and the record holder for person-days of federal employee furloughs. Trump has accounted for a majority of all days that the government has been shut down for all time.

Trump has literally demolished the East Wing of the White House to put up a ballroom (all contrary to federal law regarding how that is done).

SNAP, a.k.a. food stamps, will be shut off on November 1, 2025, out of Trump's spite because there are contingency funds in place to keep it going longer.

Trump continues to deny everyone federal disaster aid.

Trump continues to illegally murder people in boats in the Caribbean, ostensibly because they are dealing drugs, but that isn't grounds for summary execution, the basis for doing so hasn't been substantiated, and Congress hasn't authorized it.

ICE is ignoring the law and court orders in Chicago. On the bright side, someone stole two National Guard tanks in Memphis.

The No Kings Protest on October 18, 2025 extended to large attendances even in deeply red places. About 8.1 million people nationwide participated.

In a political stunt to celebrate the Marine Corps. birthday, they fired artillery rounds over Interstate Highway I-5, where some rounds exploded prematurely over the highway.

Charlie Kirk's wife appears to be deeply connected to kidnappings of Romanian children for adoptions when she was 17 years old in an activity that Trump apparently played a part in funding.

The National Young Republicans Group's racist, pro-Nazi, pro-rape group chat was exposed. The group also stiffed venues where it held events of tens of thousands of dollars more than once.

More than a third of ICE applicants can't pass basic physical fitness tests. About half of them can't pass a basic, open book test, on the part of immigration law that they need to know and the 4th Amendment.

The Toronto Blue Jays are in the World Series.

Trump increased tariffs on Canadian imports by 10% because he didn't like a truthful TV ad playing recordings of Ronald Reagan explaining how bad tariffs are.

Trump is ramping up dubious criminal prosecutions of his political opponents using illegally appointed attorneys in the Justice Department's U.S. attorneys' office.

Trump appears to have received more than a billion dollars of illegal personal gain from his office already since January 20 when he was sworn in.

Trump illegally tried to conduct layoffs during the government shutdown, which a judge halted.

Republicans are refusing to swear in a newly elected Democrat to the house from Arizona because they don't want to release the Epstein files and don't care about the continuing government shutdown.

All of this just scratches the surface of the horrible news that rains down every day.

Extinction Burst!

A video at this link explains the concept of an "Extinction Burst". People go into a rage when something that they used to be rewarded for isn't working any more, until they give up.

This is the most hopeful thing that I've seen for ages.

Could The Military Remove Trump In A Coup?

The number one trigger for military coups is the military not getting paid, which the U.S. is doing right now. And, when Trump has called up the national guard, he has done so for time periods one day short of what is necessary for them to receive full compensation for being called up. VA spending has also been slashed.

Corruption and incompetence are also major factors. But you have to go back to Andrew Jackson to find a President who rivals Trump 2.0 in those dimensions. It doesn't inspire confidence to talk about conflicts between Albania and Azerbaijan, or a European country and Cambodia. His dementia is apparent and was on full display at his unprecedented speech to all generals and admirals.

Humiliation and disrespect for the military can be factors, and Trump has shown both towards soldiers, and in particular, POWs and military casualties. The meeting of all generals and admirals where Trump, a repeat draft dodger, and a Fox News commentator, calling them out for being fat and woke, didn't help.

The meeting, met by stony eyed silence from the assembled military brass to the last man, also potentially broke down the single biggest barrier to a military coup in the U.S., which is the collective action problem of figuring out which officers are on your side. This is why numerically smaller militaries are much more likely to carry out coups. But by showing unanimity of distaste for Trump, he may have inadvertently overcome some of that barrier.

There are other signs that the military has distaste for Trump. For his birthday Army parade in D.C., he wanted a communist style show of force and got a boring historical display. Morale was brought very low when the National Guard gardened and cleared trash when occupying D.C. The National Guard has not been effective in L.A. or Chicago or Portland or Memphis at reducing crime and multiple judges have held that Trump is illegally deploying the military. But when rule of law is the only thing keeping the military subordinate to the civilian government of the U.S., Trump's flouting of the rule of law undermines that singular force. The military didn't get involved in January 6 and like most law enforcement is probably dismayed by the January 6 pardons. Trump's rogue attacks on "drug dealing" boats in international waters in the Caribbean without legal authority is another example.

The military has spent a lifetime opposing enemies like Russia, and supporting traditional allies, but Trump has turned that on his head, making war with NATO, coddling Russia, envying North Korea, threatening Greenland, Canada, and Panama.

The idea that an armed public discourages tyranny behind the Second Amendment is empirically not true historically, and obviously not true now. Gun owners in the U.S. today, not only aren't resisting tyranny, they're the ones welcoming it.

Is a coup likely? Probably not. But it is more likely now than at any other point in U.S. history.

Matter Is Binary

 

For those of you who are literal minded, this is a metaphor.

Catholic Opposition To Trump 2.0

 

In and of itself, this is a relatively minor incident in the overall sweep of Trump 2.0 politics. But Catholics are the largest voting block in the U.S. and if the Catholic church is seen as in opposition to the Trump administration, the electoral impact could be great.

The Shutdown

We are at 14 days of the shutdown (the third time that the government has shut down while Trump was President, including the longest shutdown ever). On Friday, it will surpass the 2013 shutdown during the Obama administration. A week from tomorrow, it will surpass the 1995 shutdown from the Clinton Administration. And, there is no end in sight.

The Democrats are holding out of restoring Medicaid cuts and Affordable Care Act tax subsidy cuts (not healthcare for illegal immigrants or rampant trans surgery as false GOP talking points suggest), which were including the the Trump budget to pay for tax cuts for the rich.

The fact that the Republicans haven't gone nuclear to end the shutdown shows that GOP support for those cuts in the Senate is tepid.

The foreseeable Affordable Care Act tax subsidy cuts were an important reason that I decided that I needed to seek employment with an employer who provided a group healthcare plan, rather than continuing to be self-employed.

Frogs For The Win

 

Mourning Lost Blogs

The demise of the TypePad blog hosting site has obliterated many of the blogs in my sidebar.

An Alternative History Story Idea

 This could have been pretty cool.

Around the turn of the 20th century, inexpensive meat, a product of American prosperity that had long been available to even the poorest immigrants, was suddenly in short supply. Louisiana Representative Robert F. Broussard thought he had a solution: embrace hippopotamus ranching. He even outlined the details in his “American Hippo Bill.” 

What did his plan have to do with the water hyacinth and what became of the proposed solution?

Full story at the Smithsonian Magazine.

The Tide Is Turning In Ukraine's Favor

The Ukraine War seems to have reached a turning point. Ukrainian attacks on the Russian oil and gas infrastructure, and on coal and natural gas fired electrical power plants, often deep inside Russia, are having an impact that ordinary Russian citizens can no longer ignore. And, when Russia can not longer supply oil and gas to Western Europe, European resolve to take a firm stand against Russia strengthens.

In a few cases, strikes deep in Russia have been carried out by Ukrainian special forces acting in concert with domestic minority nationalist groups, raising the specter of a Russian civil war, or at least a renewed insurgency at a time when it's military is stretched thin to beyond a breaking point.

Russia is almost completely out of heavy armored vehicles and has dramatically reduced artillery resources. Russia is still suffering about 30,000 casualties a month, a rate at which it can just barely replace the soldiers it's losing with green conscripts.

Russia's provocation of NATO countries from Poland to Hungary to Denmark is driving these countries in Europe to vigorously prepare for war and take more aggressive measures against it.

Russia is deploying huge numbers of drones, missiles, and glide bombs to Ukraine at unsustainable levels, but many of these are intercepted before they can do harm, and those that done usually result in modest Ukrainian civilian casualties that incited outrage, but have little military effect and have not broken Ukraine's spirit. And, those attacks are unsustainable because Russia's capacity to procure new drones and missiles, and the replace its military equipment losses is far lower than that of Ukraine and its Western allies.

And, while Trump's America has been a feckless ally to Ukraine, it also hasn't turned out to be the solid supporter of Russia that Putin had hoped to receive.

It isn't over, but the tide has turned definitively in favor of Ukraine.

Not All Hope Is Lost (Yet)!

Keep fighting!

Every week (there are rare days of respite) there is news so bad that I vacillate between outrage and despair over the future of our country.

On the other hand, while we have plummeted into a less free semi-democracy, and plenty of irrevocable damage has been done, we aren't yet beyond a point of no return.

The government shutdown demonstrates that Congress can do something. And, with the "nuclear option" well-established in the U.S. Senate now, the fact that the filibuster hasn't be abrogated to end the shutdown means that there is at least some tacit dissatisfaction with the administration among some Republicans in Congress, even if they are too cowardly to translate that into a roll call vote against the President.

While SCOTUS has frequently shut down lower court checks on Trump's assault on the rule of law, the lower federal courts and litigation of blue states has slowed the process down and put serious friction in the way of his bid to become a dictator.

Attempted military occupations of L.A., D.C., Chicago, and Portland (OR), have had far less shock and awe that Trump hoped. His birthday parade flopped and his rally of generals and admirals likewise demonstrated that while the military may reluctantly obey their commander in chief, that he does not have firm control of, or the loyal and enthusiastic support of, the military.

Trump's aggressive secret police style ICE tactics have undermined public backing for his immigration policies, which were a key factor in getting him and the Republicans in Congress who only have a razor thin majority as it is in the House and in the Senate, elected.

Now that the rich have gotten their tax breaks, they don't need him nearly so badly any more, and are shifting to worrying about whether his bad economic policies will deny them any profits to evade taxes on at all.

We are thirteen months away from the midterm elections, at a time when Trump's popularity has plummeted to record lows and where Democrats are vastly over performing in special vacancy elections. GOP gerrymanders are getting a response from Blue state counter-gerrymanders. And, the cost the GOP risks when it grasps for more Republican districts is that those districts may become less safe and flip as public opinion turns against Trump (primarily among disappointed Republicans and independents who voted for Trump).

It is dim, but there is still some light at the end of the tunnel.

A Fire ICE Act

ICE is rotten to the core. Basically everyone who works for it is a corrupt, racist, bad cop, with no regard for the rule of law who lacks moral character.

Democrats in Congress should sponsor the Fire ICE Act. This would:

1. Immediately terminate the employment of every single employee and contractor working for ICE.

2. Permanently bar every former ICE employee from working for any federal government agency or any federal government contractor in any capacity, even as an unpaid volunteer or as prison labor.

3. Permanently bar every former ICE employee from receiving security clearances.

4. Permanently bar every former ICE employee from receiving federal financial aid for higher education.

5. Permanently bar every former ICE employee from eligibility for SBA loans.

6. Permanently bar every former ICE employee from serving as a sponsor for any immigrant.

7. Retroactively downgrade every former ICE employee who is a military veteran to dishonorably discharged status.

8. Permanently bar every former ICE employee from receiving federal farm aid.

9. Permanently bar every former ICE employee from receiving federal housing or disaster assistance, including FHA and VA loans.

10. Revoke all non-vested employee benefits of the ICE employee from any federal government employment.

11. Extend the statute of limitations for civil liability and criminal liability committed in connection with service as an ICE agent to 50 years.

12. Create a private cause of action, including minimum statutory damages of $50,000 and attorneys' fees, for any violation of federal law committed by an ICE agent while employed by ICE or a contractor for ICE. This would include any wrongful deportation and any detention made without probable cause. And, allow any vested retirement funds or homestead property to be used to satisfy any such judgment even if it would otherwise have been exempt from creditors. Make any such debts non-dischargeable in bankruptcy.

13. Bar all companies that provided deportation transportation services to ICE from all future government  contracts.

14. Make all former ICE employees ineligible to serve on the board of any 501(c)(3) organization, or as an officer or paid employee of any such organization.

15. Revoke the visas of any ICE employee who is not a U.S. citizen.

16. Prohibit former ICE agents from owning or possessing firearms.

17. Bar former ICE officers from making new applications for federal disability benefits.

18. Prohibit federal civilian employees and federal government contractors hired in any law enforcement role from wearing masks, or enforcing the law in unmarked cars, subject to very narrow exceptions that are heavily reported upon, required all sorts of red tape, and are limited to circumstances that never include immigration enforcement.

19. Create a list of places like hospitals, court houses, churches, and immigration offices, where immigration enforcement is not allowed.

20. Allow any state or city to prohibit federal immigration enforcement from taking place in their jurisdiction, subject to very narrow exceptions for people convicted of serious felonies within the last five years.

21. End all grounds for denaturalization and punish people who secured U.S. citizenship by fraud with criminal penalties that do not revoke their U.S. citizenship.

22. Place former ICE agents at the bottom of the priority list to receive organ transplants, at at the end of the line for any Medicaid, Medicare, or VA medical benefit for which there is a waiting list.

23. Prohibit former ICE agents from receiving any honor or recognition from the federal government and revoke any honor or recognition that the former ICE agent was previously awarded by any federal government entity, military or civilian.

24. Deny former ICE agents any benefit of U.S. international child custody treaties.

25. Prohibit former ICE agents from notarizing any document used in the federal courts or submitted to a federal government agency.

26. Make former ICE agents ineligible for all federal licenses, including but not limited to, patent examiners, SEC licenses, BLM grazing permits, FCC licenses, interpreter qualifications, pilot's licenses, federal firearms dealer's licenses, and federal fishing or hunting licenses.

27. Prohibit former ICE agents from being buried in military cemeteries.

28. Prohibit former ICE agents from being granted patent or trademark applications.

29. Prohibit former ICE agents from serving as officers of any federally recognized employee unions.

30. Prohibit former ICE agents from attending any federal educational institutions.

31. Prohibit former ICE agents from making mining claims.

32. Impose a 50% excise tax on any vested, deferred compensation payable to former ICE agents on top of any other applicable taxes.

33. Enact a rebuttable presumption in any federal discrimination case that a former ICE agent intended to engage in illegal discrimination.

34. Prohibit former ICE agents from serving a registered lobbyists.

35. Require former ICE agents to disclose their employment with ICE to all future employers, in any commercial contract, in any campaign for public office, and prior to being issued a marriage license.

36. Make status as a former ICE agent an aggravating factor under the federal sentencing guidelines.

37. Prohibit former ICE agents from entering federal parks and federal landmarks.

38. Prohibit former ICE agents from serving as officers or directors of any publicly held company.

39. Prohibit former ICE agents from purchasing cyptocurrencies or selling crypocurrencies that were not owned prior to the enactment of the law.

40. Prohibit former ICE agents from obtaining any federal loan or bailout of any kind.

41. Disclose all internal ICE records and a list of all former ICE agents to the public on a publicly available database that disclosed all internal affairs information, all service information, and all contract information of former agents.

42. Immediately release everyone in ICE detention who isn't an undocumented immigrant convicted of a crime within the last five years that is a felony or worse. Transfer the rest to the federal Department of Corrections.

43. Ban all future private prison contracts of any kind.

44. Deny all de minimis tariff exemptions for former ICE agents.

45. Formally authorize private sector employers and state and local government employers to discriminate against former ICE agents.

46. Give cases in which former ICE agents are plaintiffs, the lowest scheduling priority in federal court.

47. Require disclosure of former ICE agent status in every lawsuit filed by a former ICE agent, and as part of the witness testimony of every former ICE agent in any federal court or federal administrative agency proceeding.

48. Prohibit former ICE agents from participating in clinical trials for new drugs and medical devices.

49. Prohibit former ICE agents from receiving any new federal tax credits.

50. Prohibit former ICE agents from serving as employees or unpaid volunteers in federal funded schools at any level.

If this bill is introduced as a bill in Congress, and secured enough co-sponsors in the House and Senate to have some credible chance of being seriously considered, it doesn't even matter if it passes. 

It will still powerfully discourage people considering employment with ICE from doing so. Every if some provisions are subsequently invalidated by the courts and are severed from the larger bill, the uncertainty would seriously chill anyway from applying to work for it.