17 October 2005

Colorado Polls

From the Rocky Mountain News Via Colorado Pols:

When the questioning was narrowed to the 192 registered Republicans who said they are likely to vote in the primary, 47 percent said they would choose Beauprez, 13 percent picked Holtzman and a chunk were undecided. . . . Beauprez's support comes from the metro area, Weigel said. Elsewhere in Colorado, 69 percent of voters were undecided, and Holtzman and Beauprez were tied.

The margin of error on that small sample was 7.1%, which still leaves Beauprez with a very statistically significant lead. Beauprez, the 7th C.D. Congressman, also has twice the name recognition (80%) that challenger Holtzman (44%), best known as Denver University President, does. Thus, Beauprez need to gain just 10% of undecided voters to clinch a primary. Holtzman's recent campaign performance hasn't been stellar either. It appears that he has mostly won the emnity of Governor Owens and thrust the Republican party into the very "criminalization of politics" that national GOP pundits are now decrying as the Plame Affair indicts are on the verge of being released. Democratic candidate Bill Ritter has higher name recognition (63%), but few potential voters know much about him.

Early Denver Post polling puts Ritter ahead of both Beauprez (42-36) and Holtzman (41-30). Colorado's red state status may not endure too much longer, if the sinking popularity of George W. Bush and the Republican Congress persists, and state level Republicans continue to feud with each other.

More pertinent numbers are the latest poll on Referendums C and D which largely confirm prior polling. C is favored 47-44 (in July it was 43-42 in a poll by the same outfit), while D is opposed 44-45 (in July it was 39-45). The margin of error on the October 11-13 poll was 4%, and the gains are coming mostly from stronger support in Denver. Voting starts this week, and this race is likely to be a nail biter.

They Get Letters, meanwhile, aptly notes that while the leading Republican candidate in the 7th C.D. has raised more money than either Democratic candidate in that race, that the two leading Democratic candidates combined, have raised more money than the Republicans have in the race.

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