02 November 2006

Safe Election Predictions

If you are going to be a prophet, it pays to stick with the easy predictions first. I offer you these today.

National:
1. Democrats will win a majority of the seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
2. Democrats will win more seats in the U.S. Senate.
3. Ohio's next Governor will be a Democrat.
4. New York's next Governor will be a Democrat.

Colorado:
1. Democrat Bill Ritter will defeat Republican Bob Beauprez by a comfortable margin in the Governor's race.
2. Democrat Ed Perlmutter will defeat Republican Rick O'Donnell in the 7th Congressional District race.
3. Amendment 38 (Petitions) will be defeated.
4. Amendment 40 (Judicial Term Limits) will be defeated.
5. Amendment 41 (Government Ethics) will pass.
6. Amendment 44 (Marijuana Possession) will fail.
7. Referendum G (Obsolete Constitutional Provisions) will pass.
8. Democrat John Salazar will defeat Scott Tipton in the 3rd Congressional District race.
9. Democrat Diana DeGette will defeat her Green Party opponent in the 1st Congressional District.
10. Reform Candidate Eric Eidness will not win the 4th Congressional District race, despite having received many newspaper endorsements and doing well in the polls for a third party candidate.
11. Democrat Mark Udall will prevail over token Republican opposition in the 2nd Congressional District.
12. Voter turnout will be lower than in a Presidential election year, but will be at levels at least comparable to the 2002 election.
13. The percentage of votes cast absentee and by early voting in 2006 will be greater than in 2002.
14. All judges other than Court of Appeals Judge Marquez will be retained.

Denver:
1. Referendum 1B (Financial Reorganization) will pass.

Of course, the flip side of the easy predictions, are the races to watch. They are:

Toss Up
Secretary of State
State Treasurer
Amendment 39 (School Spending)
Amendment 43 (Marriage)
Referendum I (Domestic Partnerships)

Leans Democratic
State School Board District 7
State House Control

Leans Republican
Attorney General
CU Regent At Large
4th Congressional District
5th Congressional District
State School Board District 4

Leans Pass:
Amendment 42 (Minimum Wage)
Referendum E (Veteran's Property Taxes)
Referendum F (Recall Deadlines)
Referendum H (Tax Deduction For Illegal Immigrant Compensation)
Referendum J (School Spending)
Denver Referendum 1A (Preschool)

Leans Fail:
Referendum K (Immigration Lawsuit v. Feds)

Likely Democratic
State Senate Control

Likely Republican
6th Congressional District
CU Regent District 3

Likely Retention
Court of Appeals Judge Marquez

For what it's worth, the race that most scares me is Amendment 39. The downside of this for Colorado would really be significant, and it is far too close to winning for comfort. None of the other close ballot issues would have such a profound negative impact on the state.

4 comments:

Dex said...

i heard on "democracy now!" yesterday morning that amend. 39 is the brainchild of no-tax and libertarian movement types, similar to the tabor spending limits. did i totally fall asleep on that - is that true? what've you heard?

Andrew Oh-Willeke said...

Yes it is. Indeed, the purpose was to undermine public schools. I'll be posting a story on the subject later today at CoCo.

tjlord said...

Andrew:

There are some background papers on Amend 39 that show it was also the product of focus group work by the chair of Overstock.com (as I remember) to find the one issue that would return republican soccer moms to the voting booth for an education based issue that R candidates could support - thereby inducing the R soccer mom (the biggest risk of voting defections) back to the booth and the R ticker. It wasn't JUST to undermine schools.

Andrew Oh-Willeke said...

I've seen the memo. (Didn't get the story posted today, alas, legal work and a sick kid beckoned.)