15 January 2008

Michigan Results

The Republican nomination is a three man race, after today's win for Romney in Michigan, unless Giuliani can overcome a string of dismal performances in Florida, which is unlikely.

With 93% of precincts reporting, the results are as follows:

Romney 39 321543
McCain 30 243972
Huckabee 16 132105
Paul 6 51276
Thompson 4 30445
Giuliani 3 23380
Uncommitted 2 16793

Romney has second place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, and a first place in Michigan. McCain has a fourth place finish in Iowa, a first place finish in New Hampshire and a second place finish in Michigan. Huckabee has a first place finish in Iowa, a third place finish in New Hampshire, and a third place finish in Michigan. Huckabee seems weakest, but may seem stronger after South Carolina and Florida.

Thompson's third place finish in Iowa didn't translate into top three finishes in either New Hampshire or Michigan. Likewise, neither Paul nor Giuliani have managed to make it into the top three in any race.

Who knows what to make of the Democratic results, in a race where the major candidates didn't campaign and only one of the three major candidates was on the ballot?


Clinton 55 302611
Uncommitted 40 216925
Kucinich 4 20478
Dodd 1 3584
Gravel 0 2223

The large vote for uncommitted does probably improve the Michigan delegation's odds of being seated, as it belies the notion that primary voters simply voted for the only candidate on the ballot.

Still prior analysis and polls in place now make Clinton and Obama each seem well ahead of Edwards, and put everyone else out of contention.

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