15 January 2008

Super Tuesday Predictions

Three weeks from today, is Super Tuesday, the most important day of the Presidential nomination process and the day that Colorado will be holding its caucuses.

Diarist Poblano at Daily Kos has made elaborate predictions with a disclosed factual basis regarding the February 5, 2008 Democratic primary and caucus results. Bottom line:

In Colorado, Clinton will get 36% of the Colorado delegates, Obama 45%, and Edwards 18%.

Only Oklahoma and Tennessee rival Colorado in predicted support for Edwards, and Oklahoma is the only predicted second place finish for Edwards by delegates (other than the Iowa race already completed), with all other states having him as a third place finisher.

In all Feb. 5 races, Clinton will get 48.9% of delegates, Obama 45.6%, and Edwards 5.5%. Once those races are completed, a majority of the total number of delegates should be allocated.

Thus, if events proceed in this fashion, Edwards would need something more 90% of the remaining delegates to win a majority, which would be essentially impossible, given his prior performance. He could stay in, however, in hope of forcing a brokered convention and becoming a compromise candidate.

So far, Obama has won Iowa and Clinton has won New Hampshire.

State by state Poblano's first place finish predictions are as follows:

Clinton: California, New York, New Jersey, Arizona, Connecticut, Arkansas, New Mexico, Delaware, North Dakota

Obama: Illinois, Massachusetts, Georgia, Missouri, Tennessee, Colorado, Alabama, Kansas, Utah, Idaho, Alaska

Clinton-Obama Tie: Minnesota

Poblano also sees the states in the two weeks that follow February 5 as mostly being favorable to Obama. Thus, Poblano foresees a virtual tie between Clinton and Obama on February 20 when the dust settles, with Edwards effectively out of the race with his delegates therefore effectively uncommitted.

The race on the Democratic side is stable enough to give these predictions considerable credit, although I'd hate to try to make any sense of the Republican race on Super Tuesday, as it has been far more fluid.

4 comments:

Christopher said...

this prediction is probably right, looks to be shaping up just this way.

Stephen said...

SPECULATIVE RESULTS WITH A 10 POINT SWING


Obama Victories

Colorado Obama wins 33-19
Illinois Obama wins 61-12
Utah Obama wins 28-21
Missouri Obama wins 41-34
New Mexico Obama 18-7 (Richardson was accorded 45 but dropped out.)
Idaho Obama 43-21
*Tennessee Obama 30-24
*New Jersey Obama wins 42-39
Georgia Obama wins 51-35
California Obama wins 38-33
Arizona Obama wins 37-27
Alabama Obama wins 38-33
Connecticut Obama wins 37-31

Clinton Victories

*New York Clinton wins 41-35
Oklahoma Clinton wins 35-29
Arkansas Clinton 47-27
*Delaware Clinton 31-27
*Minnesota Clinton 37-32

This is what I posted at my blog based on a 10 point swing toward Obama -- asterisks for closely contested states where time and energy might change the result. All speculative.

Shane said...

Your predictions are pretty Obama slanted Stephen. Obama is not even close in New Mexico and Oklahoma. In Oklahoma in particular he is polling at 17%. I agree with the first prediction. It seems more likely.

Anonymous said...

Those predictions are ridiculous at best; you have to remember that many Obama supporters are students (requiring absentee voting) or poor (difficult to find transportation to polling offices/complacent)