Three weeks from today, is Super Tuesday, the most important day of the Presidential nomination process and the day that Colorado will be holding its caucuses.
Diarist Poblano at Daily Kos has made elaborate predictions with a disclosed factual basis regarding the February 5, 2008 Democratic primary and caucus results. Bottom line:
In Colorado, Clinton will get 36% of the Colorado delegates, Obama 45%, and Edwards 18%.
Only Oklahoma and Tennessee rival Colorado in predicted support for Edwards, and Oklahoma is the only predicted second place finish for Edwards by delegates (other than the Iowa race already completed), with all other states having him as a third place finisher.
In all Feb. 5 races, Clinton will get 48.9% of delegates, Obama 45.6%, and Edwards 5.5%. Once those races are completed, a majority of the total number of delegates should be allocated.
Thus, if events proceed in this fashion, Edwards would need something more 90% of the remaining delegates to win a majority, which would be essentially impossible, given his prior performance. He could stay in, however, in hope of forcing a brokered convention and becoming a compromise candidate.
So far, Obama has won Iowa and Clinton has won New Hampshire.
State by state Poblano's first place finish predictions are as follows:
Clinton: California, New York, New Jersey, Arizona, Connecticut, Arkansas, New Mexico, Delaware, North Dakota
Obama: Illinois, Massachusetts, Georgia, Missouri, Tennessee, Colorado, Alabama, Kansas, Utah, Idaho, Alaska
Clinton-Obama Tie: Minnesota
Poblano also sees the states in the two weeks that follow February 5 as mostly being favorable to Obama. Thus, Poblano foresees a virtual tie between Clinton and Obama on February 20 when the dust settles, with Edwards effectively out of the race with his delegates therefore effectively uncommitted.
The race on the Democratic side is stable enough to give these predictions considerable credit, although I'd hate to try to make any sense of the Republican race on Super Tuesday, as it has been far more fluid.