The following predictions are for the period from January 20, 2017 to January 20, 2021 (i.e. President Trump's current term of office), unless otherwise stated.
War and Peace
* U.S. defense spending increases significantly: 75%
* The number of active duty U.S. military personnel is significantly increased: 70%
* The B-3 bomber program enters production: 60%
* Russia adds territory (with or without further military actions): 40%
* The U.S. enters a new ground war: 40%
* The U.S. will return to regularly using torture: 40%
* A carrier based drone fighter aircraft enters service: 35%
* All future Littoral Combat Ship purchases are canceled: 35%
* The U.S. ends military aid for Saudi Arabia and/or Egypt: 30%
* An A-10 fighter replacement program is commenced: 30%
* The U.S. recognizes greatly increased Chinese territory in the South China Sea: 30%
* There is a conventional war in Europe: 25%
* The U.S. commits at least several thousand U.S. ground troops to fighting ISIS: 25%
* The U.S. fires upon Iranian military ships or boats in the Persian Gulf: 25%
* NATO is dissolved: 20%
* The F-35 program is canceled or dramatically reduced in units purchased: 20%
* The F-22 program is reopened: 20%
* The U.S. bombs nuclear facilities in N. Korea: 15%
* The U.S. institutes a draft: 15%
* An isolated nuclear weapon (perhaps by a N. Korea or Iran, not necessarily a major nuclear power) is used: 10%
* A genuine nuclear war: 5%.
Immigration and Trade
* Increased border controls including an expanded border wall are enacted: 85%
* Anti-refugee laws are enacted: 60%
* The U.S. and the U.K. enter into a bilateral post-Brexit trade deal: 50%
* Increased deportations: 50%
* Tougher immigration laws: 45%
* The Trans-Pacific Partnership Treaty is passed: 40%
* NAFTA is terminated: 25%
* The number of undocumented non-citizens is reduced by several million: 15%
Politics and Government
* Republicans lose control of one or both houses of Congress in the 2018 election: 40%
* Civil service and.or union protections for federal workers are greatly reduced: 15%
* Trump resigns for lack of interest: 10%
* Trump is impeached: 10%
* An anti-Trump conservative party elects or wins over at least one federal politician: 10%
* There is an attempted assassination of Trump that is a publicly known near miss: 10%
* Trump successfully abrogates the constitution: 5%
* Trump is assassinated: 5%
* Enough Republican Senators defect to the Democratic party to cause it to lose control: 5%
* The Democratic party schisms between a progressive and center-left wing: 5%
Economics
* The estate tax is reduced or eliminated: 90%
* Economic inequality increases in the U.S.: 90%
* Interest rates will increase: 90%
* Unemployment increases: 85%
* The number of uninsured Americans increases significantly: 80%
* The U.S. budget deficit grows substantially: 75%
* U.S. corporate tax rates are reduced: 75%
* Obama's new overtime regulations are scrapped: 75%
* There is a recession in the U.S.: 70%
* Section 8 housing subsidies and/or public housing expenditures are cut: 60%
* Oil prices will increase: 55%
* Social security and/or Medicare are materially cut: 55%
* Food stamps are cut: 55%
* Legal rights for private sector unions will be significantly weakened: 50%
* There is a crash by October of 2017: 35%
* Economic growth will be greater than under Obama's first term: 10%
Domestic Policy
* SCOTUS regains a conservative majority: 95%
* Environmental indicators stall or get worse: 65%
* Roe v. Wade is narrowed: 60%
* The federal government abandons efforts to protect transgender individuals: 60%
* Significant amounts of federal land is transferred to the states: 55%
* Some federal gun control legislation is repealed: 50%
* Trump replaces a Justice Kennedy or a liberal SCOTUS Justice: 45%
* The federal government cracks down in recreational marijuana: 35%
* Federal civil rights/voting rights legislation is weakened: 35%
* Roe v. Wade is overturned: 25%
* Major federal sentencing reform is enacted: 20%
* SCOTUS reverses it gay rights jurisprudence: 15%
Other
* There is a rise in U.S. hate crimes and discrimination: 90%
* There is a major first family scandal: 85%
* There is a major Trump cabinet scandal: 60%
* The plan to put a woman on U.S. currency is scraped: 55%
* Trump cronies are pardoned: 40%
No comments:
Post a Comment