More Positive Thinking

One of the biggest worries for the future of the United States has been the tendency of President Trump to make dictatorial pronouncements that threaten our institutions in violation of clear constitutional rights and democratic institutions, for example, threatening not to leave office even if not re-elected.

There has been some recent reason for hope on that point.

First, today's U.S. Supreme Court ruling by a 6-3 vote affirming that the 1964 Civil Rights Act protects gay and transgender rights is not just important because it has great impact on the merits. It is also important because it has shown a willingness of two-thirds of the conservative majority court, including two conservative justices, to show judicial independence in the fact of a Trump administration priority. 

Second, in a very pointed rebuke of President Trump who was seeking military intervention (unlawfully) in response to Black Lives Matter protests, both Defense Secretary Esper (the top civilian appointee in the Department of Defense) and Joint Chiefs Chair Milley (the highest ranking military officer in the United States) made public statements to troops reminding them to defend the Constitution and not the President.

Third, this win for gay rights comes on the heels of a widespread movement in response to the Black Lives Matters protests driven by the George Floyd case in Minneapolis, Minnesota, which has resulted in two main kinds of change.

The protests have led to reforms aimed at police misconduct (with a big legislative win in Colorado, and a smaller one in New York State, local legislation like an ordinance passed in Louisville, Kentucky in the wake of the tragic death of an innocent EMT in a botched no knock drug raid and the removal of police officers from the Denver Public Schools, and even baby steps with bipartisan federal legislation also here) and the backbone to punish bad cops under existing laws. Select court rulings have also backed up the protesters.

And, the protests have led to the widespread removal of confederate symbols (including a decision to rename the Stapleton neighborhood, named after a Colorado politician elected with KKK support and announcements from the leaders of the Air Force, the Marine Corps and the U.S. Navy - the Army has considered but not taken action) and removal of many slaveholders, racist villains, and confederate monuments (sometimes by force and sometimes by official action also here) not just across the U.S., but also in the U.K. and Belgium.

Big businesses like Starbucks, Disney and T-Mobile, when pressed, have usually taken sides against the racist right. Even NASCAR, a Southern and rural cultural icon, has banned confederate symbols without blowback from anyone that matters:

This is reflected in dramatic shifts to the left in public opinion polling across the political spectrum.

Basically moderate Republicans and independents have finally had enough of Trump and the politicians who have enabled him and of abuses by police and of Confederate symbols. It feels like we have reached a tipping point after nothing seemed like it had any impact on support for all of these things for years.

The pendulum and momentum in American politics is swinging back to the left again less than five months from the November 3, 2020 general election, which is exactly when it counts.

Fourth, polling currently strongly favors Democratic nominee Joe Biden over incumbent Republican President Trump in the 2020 general election, both by large margins in national polls, and by poll leads in excess of the margin of error in enough swing states for Biden to win the electoral college. Even the "betting odds" have flipped into Biden's favor. The protests have strengthened rather than hurt Biden. Today's summary from Real Clear Politics is as follows:

Polling also shows Democratic candidates leading in enough U.S. Senate races to regain control of the U.S. Senate. Even formerly Republican leaning states like Montana, Georgia, Kansas, Iowa and Kentucky are now polling in the too close to call range. For example, Democrats lead in U.S. Senate races in Arizona (+9.8), Colorado, Maine and North Carolina (+0.2)

This looming electoral disaster for Republicans is also undermining GOP support for President Trump in Congress, and some prominent Republicans have come out in support of Biden over Trump.