The 2022 Election Preview

Going into the 2022 midterm Congressional and U.S. Senate elections, Democrats are at great risk of losing control of either the U.S. House or the U.S. Senate, although neither outcome is a foregone conclusion. 

This year will be close and big uncertainties, like how the outcome of the war in Ukraine and the potential of major conservative decisions in the U.S. Supreme Court (e.g. overturning Roe v. Wade) will impact voters only adds to the uncertainty.

Unless Democrats lose no more than four House seats and gain at least two Senate seats in 2022, we can expect two more years of legislative gridlock in Washington. If both houses are lost, there will be plenty of vetoes of Republican legislation from President Biden. If only one house is lost, it will look more like the status quo, but with less ambitious budget measures.

In a best case scenario, Democrats could gain as many as five Senate seats and about twenty House seats, which would give the Democrats and President Biden a comfortable governing majority and the two years that follow could be truly transformative politically. But this outcome would take a significant shift in the national political barometer (i.e. a shift towards Democrats of several percentage points in support) against the Republican party compared to where we stand today. 

A worst case scenario, in which Democrats lose at least one net Senate seat and at least five House seats, leaving Republicans in control of both Houses of Congress under a moderate Democratic President is very possible as well, although not as inevitable as doomsayers convinced that the incumbent President's midterm election curse is sure to doom them would have you think.

So far, President Biden has announced an intent to run for re-election in 2024, a decision that has only lukewarm support from the party faithful.  But the outcome of the midterms could influence whether that actually happens, as could factors like Biden's health. I believe that he would be the oldest Presidential nominee of all time in the U.S. if he ran. 

Nancy Pelosi, the current Speaker of the House from a safe Democratic district in San Francisco, and also one of the oldest persons to hold that post of all time, is also running for re-election and hasn't disavowed the possibility of holding onto the Speakership if Democrats can hold onto a majority in the House.

Top Colorado Races

The new, open seat in the 8th Congressional District in Colorado is the hottest race in the state (Cook's political report thinks it leans Republican) and will be one of the most closely fought in the nation.

Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet, and a Democratic nominee in the open 7th Congressional District race are likely to be won by Democrats. 

Colorado's gadfly Republican incumbent in the 3rd Congressional District is vulnerable, but much more so to a Republican primary challenger than to a Democrat.

Democrats are likely to hold on to control of both Houses of the Colorado General Assembly with the new districts, as well as to the statewide elective offices in play this year. The new 8th Congressional District will inject some uncertainty into control of the CU-Regents and the state school board which are also elected statewide.

It is early yet, but no major statewide ballot initiatives are making headlines yet this year.

The 2022 House Races

According to Cook's Political Report: All but six U.S. states have their 2022 Congressional maps in place. The laggards are: FL, LA, MO, NH, OH and WI remain. 

The states with enacted maps lean 193D and 170R (with 13 of the Democratic seats and 7 of the Republican ones rated as "toss ups"). This would involve Democrats picking up four seats (three in New York and one in Illinois, three of which are open seats) that lean Democratic but are held by Republicans, and losing five seats (two in Arizona, one in Michigan, one in New Jersey, and one in Texas, three of which are open seats) that lean Republican and are held by Democrats.

But 72 districts remain to be drawn in the six remaining states. Democrats need 25 of the remaining 72 seats to retain a majority in the U.S. House (assuming Cook's Political Report is, on average, correct in its predictions for the other races). Realistically, six to ten of those remains seats will be competitive.

Those six states had 25 Democrats in Congress in 2020 (FL-11, LA-1, MO-2, NH-2, OH-4, WI-3), which, if Democrats repeated that performance in 2022 would leave Democrats with the narrowest possible majority in the U.S. House.

Those five of those six states (FL, LA, MO, OH and WI) are states where there have been efforts to gerrymander further against Democrats and this is what is delaying the process of enacting new maps. The outcome of the redistricting fights in these five states could easily dictate the final outcome of the 2022 Congressional contests.

Historically, the incumbent President has tended to lose support in the House in midterm elections. Democrats currently hold 222 seats to 211 Republican seats in the House with 2 seats currently vacant (both previously held by Republicans, on in CA and one in MN). So, while the Democrats don't have to hold every single seat, they can only afford to lose 4 seats out of 222 in the 2022 midterms in order to maintain a majority.

On the other hand, midterm losses are typically associated with lost "coattail" seats in the previous Presidential election, and it is hard to say with confidence that President Biden had any Congressional coattails in 2020, so midterm losses can be expected to be below average in 2022.

At a minimum Biden's coattails were the weakest in 60 years according to the Washington Post, a conclusion with which the Wall Street Journal agreed concluding that Biden had none, i.e. that Democrats did no better in federal legislative races than they would have without Biden running a narrowly winning Presidential race.

538 has updates from Ohio and Wisconsin's redistricting and generally speaking, makes the case that:

redistricting has created 11 more Democratic-leaning seats nationally, six fewer Republican-leaning seats and six fewer highly competitive seats. This is due to aggressive map-drawing by Democrats in states such as New York as well as court decisions overturning Republican gerrymanders in Ohio and North Carolina.

After accounting for incumbency, however, Democrats’ gains should be smaller: Democrats will likely flip around two or three seats in 2022 due to redistricting. In addition, Republicans have helped their own cause by converting light-red districts into safer seats in states like Texas.

However, there are still a few unknowns that could change these topline takeaways. Most notably, the ultimate map in Florida — where 28 congressional seats are at stake — could be worth multiple extra seats for one party or the other. Courts may also still throw out some of the maps that are currently in place, such as Ohio’s. The Buckeye State’s latest map is not much fairer than the one that was previously struck down.

The 2022 Senate Races

In the U.S. Senate there are currently 48 Democrats, 2 independents who caucus with Democrats, and 50 Republicans. There are 35 U.S. Senate elections in 2022, of which 14 are seats held by Democrats and 21 are seats currently held by Republicans. 

Three seats held by Democrats (AZ, GA, NV) and two seats held by Republicans (PA, WI) are considered toss-ups, all of which except the PA seat, have incumbents running for re-election who are generally favored however slightly.

There is also one seat (NH) that has a Democratic incumbent running for re-election, and leans Democratic but is vulnerable. There are three seats (FL, NC and OH) that have a Republican incumbent and lean Republican but are vulnerable, with only FL's incumbent running for re-election. The NC and OH Senate seats are open races.

Of the other twenty-six Senate races, nine are solid Democratic seats, one (CO) is a "likely Democratic" seat, and sixteen are "solid" Republican seats.

Democrats need to win three toss up seats and NH to hold their 50-50 majority in the Senate (it is a majority because the Vice President is a Democrat and casts tie votes). But, Democrats need to expand their Senate majority by one or two seats to have a functional majority, because two of the members of their caucus are conservative Democrats (from WV and AZ respectively, neither of whom have to seek re-election in 2022) who have thwarted the Democratic agenda on filibuster reform, packing the Supreme Court, and partially on major fiscal bills backed by the House and the President.

Historically, the incumbent President have tended to lose support in the Senate in midterm elections. Even a single seat lost by the Democrats, however, would flip the U.S. Senate to the Republicans, and their caucus is more united than the Democratic caucus in the Senate.

Unless Democrats gain two more Senate seats and hold onto a U.S. House majority, which is possible but unlikely, the nation will be stuck with two more years of political gridlock in Washington.