A Ukraine War Update

Ukrainian estimates of Russian casualties may be high, although they are certainly closer to reality than Russian claims. But, there is no doubt that the war in Ukraine is going badly for Russia at the moment and was a colossal mistake on Putin's part. 

Likewise, whatever the exact toll, Russian's conventional military capabilities in Europe have been profoundly depleted with no reasonable prospects of being replenished in the short to medium run time frame.

On the 224 of the war, the Ukrainian forces continue to advance in the east and the south while the Russian military seems to be in full retreat. 

After weeks of successful Ukrainian counteroffensives, a pattern is emerging. The Ukrainian military has been launching a two-prong attack from the north and south, aiming at an enemy-occupied city. Once it is threatening to envelop or has enveloped the city, the Russian forces retreat, often under heavy artillery fire, and the Ukrainian military captures the city and then repeats the process. . . .

The Ukrainian military now has the proper manpower and weapon systems, especially long-range precision capabilities in the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS), to fix the Russian forces on a particular position but also generate preponderant power at weak spots on the Russian defenses and achieve tactical depth penetration. . . .

Making things worse for the Russian military is the fact that with every mile that the Ukrainians advance, they are able to bring their deadly long-range weapon systems, most notably the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and its heavier cousin, the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS), closer to the frontlines and thus threaten additional Russian units and lines of communication and supply that were out of range previously.

Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Wednesday, Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 61,000 Russian troops (and wounded approximately thrice that number), destroyed 266 fighter, attack, and transport jets, 232 attack and transport helicopters, 2,435 tanks, 1,414 artillery pieces, 5,038 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 341 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 15 boats and cutters, 3,841 vehicles and fuel tanks, 177 anti-aircraft batteries, 1,032 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 132 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 246 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.

From here. 

Wikipedia sums up the data on casualties in the war here. 

It appears that the report quoted above is misinterpreting the Ukraine data which is really suggesting 61,000 Russian troops have been killed, wounded, captured, or deserted, with closer to 20,000 deaths (as the U.S. estimates) and 41,000 to 60,000 Russian forces wounded, captured, or deserted. 

The Russian losses have not been confined to rank and file soldiers either (per Wikipedia's link above):

According to BBC News Russian and the Mediazona news website, out of 6,756 Russian soldiers whose deaths they had documented by 23 September 2022, 16.9 percent (1,142) were officers, while 20.3 percent (1,370) were Motorized Rifle Troops and 16.6 percent (1,124) were members of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV).

Still, the Russian death toll is still around 13% of its initial total force size, and 40% or more of its initial force size of troops have been "lost" from availability to fight. These are losses of a scale that has been reputed to break the will of a military unit to fight, destroying its morale. 

About 7,000 Russian side forces (mostly Ukrainian separatists) were killed prior to the current war in the 2014 Russian invasion and its follow up.

About 10,000 Ukrainian forces have been killed, 30,000 wounded, 7,200 missing, and 5,600 captures. About 7,000-29,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed in the current conflict. 

About 4,500 Ukrainian forces and about 3,400 Ukrainian civilians were killed prior to the current war in the 2014 Russian invasion and its follow up.