Unsolved Murders

There are about 10,000 unsolved murders in the United States every year. They are disproportionately Hispanic and even more disproportionately black victims, who disproportionately live in poverty-stricken, "disorganized" neighborhoods.

I suspect, but do not know, that most of these murders involve young men in gangs as both perpetrators and victims, with an occasional bystander killed in a gang shooting as well. These murders are predominantly, but not entirely, carried out with guns.

The proportion of murders that are unsolved has grown to record highs, but some of this is due to the falling number of total murders, with the unsolved part remaining relatively steady, while the more easily "solvable" murders have grown far less common.

Still, one quite plausible, potentially effective national crime strategy could be to devote far more resources to solving murders and other unsolved serious violent crimes. Incarcerating violent offenders for long periods of time (up to a point) definitely works to reduce crime.

The examples of very high clearance rates of mass shootings and for murders of law enforcement officers, and isolated case studies of communities reorganizing and changing the funding of their police departments also suggests that it is indeed possible to increase clearance rates for murders relative to the status quo, even in the "hard" cases that are going unsolved now.

It might be expensive to do this, but the returns from an investment in solving more murders with a very modest percentage of the defense budget could be quite impressive.

Also, since deterrence is driven more by the likelihood of being caught than by the severity of the sentence imposed, a modest increase in clearance rates for murders could lead to a virtuous circle of positive reinforcement, reducing the likelihood that crimes will be committed, in a way that tougher sentencing, or greater use of the death penalty, would not. Indeed, the return on shortening the longest sentences for violent offenders and using the money saved by doing so to increase the number of violent crimes that are solved, would itself probably provide positive returns.

Steps short of gun control, like mandating traceable bullets with serial numbers that can be linked to people who bought and sold that ammunition, which would increase the likelihood that murders are solved, could also help. Incidentally, this would also help in distinguishing whether law enforcement or criminals caused deaths in complicated shootouts, with after the fact forensics that are often inconclusive on that point.