09 January 2008

Steampunk


I am a real steampunk fan. This is hardly surprising.

Both my office and my home in Denver were designed in the coal age, and like my coal age predecessors I live close to where I work and can get their on sidewalks or city streets. The dominant features of the landscape that I pass en route to work, Washington Park and Speer Boulevard lining Cherry Creek, were put their in the steam era. My home furnishings are traditional, my long term shopping list includes an old fashioned wardrobe to address a house that was built with fewer closets than are common now.

My practice is also typical of the kind of practice that prevailed when our office was built. It is a referral business driven, civic minded, collegial small partnership that serves mostly privately held businesses and individuals who can afford to hire lawyers with their own money by the hour. We have not ridden either of the big late 20th century trends in the business of law, which has seen the rise on one hand of big firms serving mostly publicly held companies and the very affluent senior executives, and on the other hand, of public defenders offices and legal clinics and TV advertising driven personal injury firms that mostly serve people who can't afford lawyers with their own means.

Fastracks, Denver's massive expansion of its light rail system, is a return to its 19th century history, when neighborhoods like the one where I live were streetcar suburbs. While the military ultimately rejected the idea of building new transport airships (think Zeppelin), airships are returning to consideration of a niche means of transportation. While no one outside the Northeastern Corridor has established a high speed passenger rail line in the United States, people all over the country are considering ways to revitalize passenger rail in America. Skyscrapers, which many thought would never be built again due to the rise of the suburban office park, are going up in downtown Denver seemingly on every corner. They are building new brownstones in the Platte Valley. New Urbanism, an architectural ethos that tries to recapture many 19th century urban planning values, is one of the leading influences in how our built environment is changing.

A lot of this interest is being driven by the recognition that the days of our oil based economy are numbered, and so we a revisiting the technologies in place immediately prior to that oil based economy. More than coal produces electicity these days, but a shift to an economy where electricity is a cheaper driving force than oil brings us back to steam age technologies. After all, despite all the hype about electric cars as new technology, there were lots of electric car models being considered at the dawn of the 20th century. The electric car was killed by Ford with the Model T before it was killed by General Motors the second time around.

I could make an exhaustive list of pseudo-Victorian settings in fiction and theater (the Harry Potter series and the Golden Compass series jump to the top of that list), but the wikipedia link suffices to describe them.

My retro instincts go back well before Denver, however. My college experiences were at institutions still defined to a significant extent by their 19th century founding experiences. When I was taking physics at a local college my senior year in college, I used logarithm tables and infinite series approximations of circular functions instead of a scientific calculator, even on tests, as a personal eccentricity. I tried contacts briefly, but relied on glasses rather than trying laser eye surgery or return to much improved contract lenses.

I am also mystified by the completely oblivious to fashion practices of computer manufacturers given the fact that computers, a product sold in large quantities to successful and affluent companies and individuals, in addition to being tools, are also household and office furnishings in which customers expect a wide variety of choices. There are a few niche box conversion operations (one of which is a couple of blocks from my office on Speer Boulevard), but probably 99% of the market share for computer equipment belongs to cheap metal and plastic products in black or white or gray, with no ability of a consumer to choose even from those colors. The wireless revolution is being driven in part because wires all over the place are ugly.

Hat Tip to Non-Prophet for bringing the thought to mind.

08 January 2008

The Candidates On Nuclear Power

According to a New Hampshire source, this is what the candidates have to say about nuclear power:

Republican candidates Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, John McCain, Fred Thompson and Rudolph Giuliani all support a "nuclear renaissance," the massively funded push by the nuclear industry to build a fleet of new reactors. . . .

Edwards says there is "no place" for nuclear power in his plans for America's energy future. In 2002 Edwards voted in favor of a national waste repository proposed for Yucca Mountain, Nevada, but has since strongly opposed that project and all federal funding for the expansion of atomic power. . . . This past weekend, according to Erin Placey of the New Hampshire AFSC, Edwards has reconfirmed his opposition in his public speeches and to her personally.

In her signature statement during a You Tube debate on June 23, Hillary Clinton said she was "agnostic" on nuclear power. "Until we figure out what we're going to do about waste and the cost, it's very hard to see nuclear as part of our future," she said. "But that's where American technology comes in. Let's figure out what we're going to do about the waste and the cost." At a rally in South Carolina, Clinton added that "I think nuclear power has to be part of our energy solution.... I don't have any preconceived opposition. I just want to be sure that we do it right, as carefully as we can." . . .

In that same YouTube debate, Obama said, "I actually think we should explore nuclear power as part of the energy mix. . . . . I don't think we can take nuclear power off the table," says Obama. "If we can resolve the waste and safety issues, then we should pursue it, and if we can't, we should not."

The Other Estrogen

Estrogen, which we normally think of as the female sex hormone (although men also have it in smaller amounts), impacts two different systems in the body, one called alpha receptors associated mostly with cell growth, and another called beta receptors, discovered in the late 1990s, whose purposes we are just discovering, according to Science News.

[T]he beta receptor has been found to protect against cancer, keep the immune system in check, help serious trauma patients survive their injuries, and keep people from being too anxious. A recent spate of studies on the receptor could lead to a new generation of hormone-based drugs for infertility, breast cancer, irritable bowel syndrome, depression, and a myriad of other conditions.


This second system may regulate ovulation timing, may be behind the cancer preventing properties of coffee and soy, control inflamation, help fight infections, and set pain thresholds. It may also be associated with many of the symptoms associated with menopause. There are also compounds called estrogen receptor beta agonists, in addition to estrogen, that activate only this system of the body, and other compounds called agonists that impact only the alpha receptors.

Thus a wide range of physical symptoms previously considered unrelated may now be understood to be part of a single system susceptible to treatment with a single class of drugs.

Best Headline of the Day, So Far

Each year, 101,000 Americans die needlessly because they're not French.

Progress

I've mentioned before that I'm not terribly comfortable with the political label "progressive." In part this is because I feel that the progressive movement of the early 20th century was a decidedly mixed blessing.

On the issue of how government should be structured, they were basically wrong. Their deep distrust of authority that led to the citizen initiative, long ballots, more widespread election of judges, division of power at the state and local level among multiple executive branch officials, odd ball institutions like grand juries called by petition in Kansas, and overly strict civil service and public contracting rules that have hobbled the efficiency and effectiveness of the public sector in the United States fueling our strong privatization movement. Their distrust of political parties which led them to greatly weaking their institutional power, has also been mostly a bad thing. And, then there is prohibition, which they fervantly supported, which brought us gangsters, organized crime and public corruption.

Not everything the progressive did was bad, but enough that I'm not thrilled about the modern incarnation. Also, my politics now differ in a number of areas from the progressive orthodoxy.

But, perhaps the defining thing that makes me a Democrat and a liberal is that I do believe that we can make progress. I believe that physics will untangle most of the mysteries of dark matter, dark energy, quantum mechanics and general relativity, if not in my lifetime, in that of my children. I believe that medicine will largely conquer cancer and a host of other serious diseases and will have a much more biochemical/neurological understanding of our personalities and mental illness as well, in the same time frame. I believe that public policy changes can dramatically reduce crime on a sustained basis. I believe that private sector economic efforts combined with reformed public policies can and will make our economy far more productive. I believe that most legislation has a net positive effect on our society. I believe that the human race will develop a sustainable modern post-oil economy. I believe that we will survive global warming and will not be wiped out by some new epidemic. I believe that political institutions can end war in large regions for sustained periods of time and that we are moving incrementally towards that end in large portions of the world. I believe that the human race will not be obliterated by war and that humanity could regain its current technological and social sophistication after just a couple hundred years even in the face of a catastrophy that destroyed 99% of the human population. I believe that the population of the world will slowly follow the lead of Europe and become more secular, although that may go by fits and starts and take a few centuries to reach its apex.

We have learned the power of empirical evidence and analysis of it, and if we follow that star, we can continue to make dramatic strides forward.

I blog, and I am political, because I have the hope that positive change is possible and feel an obligation to do what I can to assist in that process. So, in that sense, I guess that I am a progressive.

Four Weeks Until Caucus

In four weeks, Colorado voters who a registered to vote and affiliated with a political party in that registration will go to their caucuses. Most notably, they will have a say in nominating each party's respective Presidential nominee.

Colorado has not, at least in recent memory, had such an early say in the process. This year's Presidential primary season is more front loaded than ever. Iowa and the Wyoming GOP have already had their say at their caucuses. New Hampshire voters cast their votes in the first in the nation primary today. South Carolina and Nevada will make their decisions before Colorado does. Michigan and Florida will as well, but on the Democratic side, those races will be irrelevant because the candidates are not campaigning there and their delegates will not be seated.

February 5, when Colorado decides, will be the biggest day of the primary season. It will also set in motion the process of nominating other candidates to be on the primary ballot in August. Primaries are possible, but unlikely, in the U.S. Senate race, are likely in the Second Congressional District race for the Democrats, and are also likely in the Fifth Congressional District race for the Republicans (despite the fact that they have an incumbent). There will likely be several state legislative primaries in Denver as well.

Democrats enter election season 2008 with high spirits in Colorado. Democrats have the Governor's seat, control the state house and the state senate (neither of which has a U.S. Senate style filibuster), and the state treasurer's post. A majority of the state's delegation to Congress carries the Democratic party brand and that is unlikely to change. The Democrat is narrowly favored in the U.S. Senate race in Colorado. The Republican Secretary of State may leave office early to serve in Congress (Coffman is running to replace Congressman Tom Tancredo) affording a Democratic governor a chance to appoint his replacement. There is a Republican attorney general, and Republicans control the state board of education (4-3) and the University of Colorado Regents (6-3?) but one can't have everything in life, eh?

Democrats will bring long shot challenges to Republicans in the 4th, 5th and 6th Congressional Districts. The 4th, home to Marilyn Musgrave who has perennially underperformed the partisan breakdown of her district is the Democrat's best shot. But, he single minded focus on sex legislation and poor consitutent service will, even if she is re-elected, leave her a weak dean of the Republican delegation in Congress who drains national Republican coffers. Doug Lamborn, in Colorado Springs, will be one of the most junior representatives in the impotent Republican House minority, even if he manages to be re-elected by dodging a strong primary challenge. Any Republican that prevails in the 6th Congressional District will be a freshman representative in a weak minority caucus. Should the Republican take the U.S. Senate seat, he too will be a freshman in that body, which admittedly, affords far more rights to the minority than the U.S. House (and has a bat in hell chance of returning to a Republican majority).

The 2008 election is unlikely to oust the comfortable Democratic majority in the state house, currently 40-25, most of whom were either elected in 2006 or chosen by vacancy committees from safe districts. The state senate majority is 20-15, which is also comfortable, particularly considering that only half of state senators face election every two years, and that many of the seats being contested are safe seats for one party or the other. It would take a political tidal wave for Republicans to regain control of the Colorado General Assembly, and there is nothing to indicate that the political winds of change in the state favor them.

Democrats have been out of the wilderness for a while in Colorado now, with a string of recent successes, but they also remain acutely aware that Colorado is a moderate state and that their majority depends upon not overestimating their mandate. Both the Governor and our Democratic U.S. Senator, as well as one of our Democratic members of Congress are moderates who can't always be counted upon to carry out the party line. The Demcoratic caucus in Denver is more middle of the road than the Democratic caucus in Washington. It has both fewer hard core progressives, and fewer members who are blue dog class conservatives.

Ten months out from the general Presidential election, the Democrats seeem favored to win in most plausible head to head races. But, those prospects will become much more clear in a few weeks. While the Democratic race for the Presidential race has already thinned out to three viable candidates, a trend unlikely to be upset today or in other contests before February 5, the Republican race is in considerable flux.

Polls have John McCain and Mitt Romney neck and neck for the top two spots in the New Hampshire Republican primary, taking up about two-thirds of the vote between them. Huckabee and Romney were the top two candidates in Iowa. If, as seems likely, waning Giuliani can't pull out even a third place finish in New Hampshire (he did miserably in Iowa), because he is bested by surging support for Huckabee, he may lose too much steam to have a viable shot at the nomination. Thompson and Ron Paul are likely unlikely to do well enough in New Hampshire to build momentum given their mediocre showings in Iowa. Thus, New Hampshire could effectively winnow the Republican contest to a three way race.

I join most Western Republicans in hoping Romney wins although in my case it is because he would be the weakest in a head to head contest with any of the top three Democratic hopefuls. If Romney bests McCain today, and this is well within the range of possibility as Obama pulls independent votes to the Democratic primary rather than the Republican one, Democratic prospects in the November Presidential election look bright, as Romney will be the front runner in the race with a second place finish in Iowa and a first place finish in New Hampshire. While some Christian conservatives distrust Romney for his flip flops on social issues and Mormon faith, he is still professing to adhere to the economic and social policy issues they held dear now and has a conservative religious faith. Huckabee is deeply distrusted by the neo-conservative wing of the Republican party due to his relatively liberal economic policies and his foreign policy ineptitude. McCain burned many party faithful supporters with his support for "liberal" ideas like campaign finance reform and opposition to the President's torture agenda, yet will alienate many in the general election with his unabashed support for the war in Iraq, stating that he plans to have U.S. troops in Iraq for another century.

But, today, we let the voters of New Hampshire decide. And, in four weeks, Republicans and Democrats alike in Colorado will get to choose from those choices that the early state voters have not hurled off the table and into the trash. It certainly looks like we will still have some choices at that point. But, a decisive Obama win in New Hampshire today, which the polls are predicting, would makes the prospects of a brokered convention in Denver seem less likely.

07 January 2008

The Trouble With Consumer Arbitration

"[B]usinesses win 97% of the cases against consumers that go to arbitration."

From here.

Of course, this has to be balanced against the consumer success level in the state courts. In Colorado, county courts are the main forum where consumer cases are brought against debtors. About 118,000 money claim cases are brought in that court each year (apart from the small claims cases that consumers themselves tend to bring), making up 64% of the county court civil docket (most of the rest involves evictions, restraining orders and name changes). These cases are overwhelmingly brought en masse, by collection agency attorneys or consumer collection specialist attorneys. The civil cases produce 1,260 civil trials a year (all but 16 of which are non-jury trials). Presumably, businesses also win a significant percentage of cases that actually go to trial, many of which involve pro se consumer defendants against represented business or landlord plaintiffs with a great deal of trial experience.

If a pre-trial settlement (there is essentially no motion practice or discovery in county court and cases typically go to trial less than four months from the filing of an answer) or default judgments (which probably make up a majority of cases) counts as a creditor win, then considerably more than 99% of money claim cases are business wins.

Since the 97% figure is only for arbitrations commenced against consumers (excluding most of the kinds of cases brought in small claims court), this suggests that consumers may actually do considerably better in arbitration than in court. This could reflect the notion that arbitration is more likely to address the merits than the court process, in which many cases produce default judgments despite a meritorious defense.

But there are about 6,734 small claims trials each year in Colorado, out of 12,880 cases a year (a 50% trial rate) usually involving pro se parties on both sides. Consumers tend to fare better in this venue. Many of these are brought by consumers (or by very small businesses against consumers), and these tend to balance out the poor success rate of consumers in county court collection cases.

Bad Accountants

Daniel and Kathleen Warren, both CPAs, tried and failed to defraud the bankruptcy court, a filing made to get out of a civil suit alleging that they have embezzeled $1.3 million from a business they represented. The 10th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed a ruling denying their discharge of indebtedness.

Their efforts to claim exemptions under the bankruptcy code were particularly aggravated by the fact that they claimed stupidity (on issues like the definition of asset) that was implausible given their education. "Mr. and Mrs. Warren are both certified public accountants. He was licenced in 1985 and has 11 years’ experience with Big Five accounting firms. She was licensed in 1989." As the trial court explained:

The Debtors testified that Mr. Warren met numerous times with their attorney and that Mrs. Warren made multiple calls to discuss the Schedules with their attorney, so they cannot argue they did not understand what information to include in the [Schedule of Assets] and the Schedules. The Warrens have technical training as accountants and as such, admit that they understand that prepaid insurance is an asset. . . . Unlike a debtor who is inexperienced with financial affairs or one who relies on incorrect advice or information in preparing his statements and schedules, the Warrens are sophisticated debtors—each with degrees in accounting and significant finance experience.

The Warrens keep meticulous records including detailed paper and computer records of their financial affairs that should have provided the answers necessary to accurately complete their bankruptcy documents. . . . The evidence indicates the information was available to assist the Warrens in compiling their papers. They prepared a list of creditors which amounts to four and a quarter inches thick stack of paper so that all possible contingent debt would be included in their discharge. The Debtors knew how to be inclusive and were quite accurate when it suited them.


The Court also noted some outrageous valuations of personal property. Among them:

Warrens claimed as exempt 14 computers, which they valued at $200 in total despite having paid $31,000 for the used computers seven months earlier. Section 78-23-8(1)(d) provides a $500 exemption for “heirlooms or other items of particular sentimental value.” Under this exemption they claimed “wedding rings” valued at $10, a pearl necklace valued at $2.00, a gold ring valued at $3.00, a chair from Spain valued at $0.00, and five paintings valued at a total of $10.00. Section 78-23-8(1)(a) provides a $500 exemption for “sofas, chairs, and related furnishings reasonably necessary for one household.” Under this exemption the Warrens claimed over 30 items, including 6 TVs valued at $50 total, china valued at $1.00, crystal valued at $1.00, a stereo valued at $5.00, and a treadmill and stairmaster valued at $20.00 total.


Shady transactions selling a coin collection at a massive loss to an undisclosed buyer sealed the deal.

The opinion was gentle towards bankruptcy counsel, who fortunately were involved prior to 2005 bankrutcy code reforms that give counsel greater responsibility to determine the accuracy of client filings, but accepting the client valuations in this case on forms they no doubt prepared was, at least, aggressive advice that didn't pay off in the end.

Excessive Force Law

Judge Posner's opinion on the issue of excessive force in removing someone held in contempt of court from a court room is a nice primer on the issue of the law of excessive force by police officers in a wide variety of situations.

The ruling also likely to lead to a settlement of the ten year old case against the officers, because of the ruling's emphasis on the inherent unreasonableness of using a great deal of force to subdue a fragile, morbidly obese litigant (causing his death) when there was no reason to rush in the circumstances that presented the officers (i.e. trying to remove a litigant from the courtroom at the end of the day).

As the ruling explains (editorial bracketed material in the original, citations omitted):

The issue under the Fourth Amendment “is ‘whether the officers’ actions
[were] objectively reasonable in light of the facts and circumstances confronting them.’ ”The officers’ intent in using force is irrelevant in a Fourth Amendment case. Only its reasonableness matters—which means whether it was excessive in the circumstances, because if it was, it was unreasonable.


The reasonableness of an officer's actions must consider circumstances known to a reasonable officer, but not those hidden from and unknown to an officer. What is excessive is, as we said, relative to circumstances, but more precisely to circumstances as a reasonable police officer would perceive them."

If the act is unreasonable given what the officer knows, "The tortfeasor takes his victim as he finds him."

The opinion also explores which of the officers might be liable, exploring four situations.

The first is that each defendant’s act makes the injury to the plaintiff a little worse and it is the combination of the acts of separate defendants that does him in. Then each defendant is liable only for the increment in harm that he caused. . . .

Second, each defendant might by his own act have inflicted the entire injury, in the sense that, had he not committed the act, the injury would have been no less grave than it was, as when two persons shoot a third and each wound would have been fatal by itself. Again, both would be liable, but this time jointly and severally. . . .

Third . . . each defendant might have committed an act that is a tort when injury results (for there is no tort without an injury), but it is unclear which defendant’s act was the one that inflicted the injury—both shot at the plaintiff, one missed, but we do not know which one missed. Again both are jointly and severally liable. . . .

And fourth, one defendant might commit the act that causes the harm yet the other be sued as well because he could have prevented the harm but did not. Tort law imposes no general duty of rescue . . . But there is an exception for the case in which the officer is responsible for creating the peril that creates an occasion for rescue . . . If they should have realized that their colleagues were using excessive force they had a duty to intervene, for they were part of the arresting force, awaiting a call to join . . . should it become necessary.


The fact that the removal of the person from the court room was ordered by a judge was held to be irrelevant.

Of course, much of this analysis would be irrelevant in the ordinary tort law regime where principals (in this case the sheriff's office and in turn the county) are vicariously liable for the acts of their agents, the rule that applies to private corporations. If vicarious liability were at play, sorting out which officer was responsible for injuries to what extent would be irrelevant, and the reasonableness of the officer's actions taken as a whole would be the only thing that mattered. But, because the law of excessive force is obsessed with pinning responsibility for civil rights violations on individuals, considerable fact finding is required.

Crime down in early 2007

"[V]iolent crime remains near historic low levels," according to the Justice Department.

In Case of Mountain Lions Fight

The shorter version of the correct response to a Mountain Lion is:

1. Protect the kids.
2. If distant, be quiet and watchful.
3. Respond to increased interest with increased aggression from you.
4. Don't run.

Hat Tip to Nature Blog.

Hillary Clinton on Crime

I am sorely disappointed with the stance Hillary Clinton has taken on federal criminal law. Her support for federal mandatory minimum sentences is appalling. I also have not forgotten her troubling supp port for tougher obscenity laws.

Obama's record on criminal justice is considerably more balanced. Edwards also seems reasonable on this issue.

The Daily Kos crowd has been solidly pro-Edwards, modestly pro-Obama, and strongly anti-Hillary Clinton for a long time now. But while I prowl Daily Kos and post there from time to time, I'm certainly a moderate by those standards, particularly when it comes to opposition to Clinton on the grounds that she is too "pro-corporate." For example, while I agree that the 2005 bankruptcy legislation was flawed, I also recognize that the legislation appropriately tightened abuses of the bankruptcy system before its enactment by high income/low asset debtors with mostly consumer debts, and through abusive use of exemptions from creditors under the old law by fat cats, particularly those who had engaged in securities fraud or were attempting last minute asset protection schemes. I likewise don't agree that free trade treaties like NAFTA have destroyed the American economy -- they have been a mixed blessing and perhaps not as helpful as hoped, but I don't see these treaties as a major factor driving our current economic woes. I also agree with mainstream economists that all things being equal, free trade is a good thing.

As I result, I've been more willing to give Clinton the benefit of the doubt than many of my Democratic peers. But, her stance on criminal justice issues is black mark on Clinton's record that will influence, although it might not decide my vote.

I'm not a single issue voter. But, I am very undecided now in the Presidential race in which I'll be casting my caucus vote on February 5, and electability is not a very powerful issue in the Democratic race -- its importance in part depends on how the New Hampshire primary, Nevada primary and South Carolina primary come out. A stronger GOP likely nominee makes this a bigger issue, but different Democratic nominees would be stronger vis different GOP nominees, so it isn't an open and shut issue that favors just one candidate. An Edwards wash out in the early contests, however, would count against him in my book, and that seems like a real possibility given polling at this point (unless McCain does very well, as Edwards has polled very well against McCain).

Honestly, Edwards is the only Democratic candidate I feel that I understand well, and this is mostly because he is fairly simple to understand -- his views are consistent, his persona I recall from prior elections in which he has been a candidate. While I feel that I understand Hillary Clinton as I person, I don't understand her policies at all. Obama is still a cipher to me, although I'll be better informed by February 5.

Incidentally, the Wyoming GOP held its caucuses (with a penalty from the national GOP) and soundly backed Romney, who looks likely to sweep the Rocky Mountain states as the Colorado GOP has also lined up behind Romney. If Romney does end up being the GOP nominee, I don't think that any of the Democrats has an electability edge.

Bribe Based Federalism

One of the most common means by which the federal government secures state compliance with federal policy is by linking federal funds to state policy actions. The "No Child Left Behind Act" is one such example. The national drinking age and DUI limit and speed limits are other examples. What happens when the federal government then fails to deliver on the bribe that secured a change in state policy? The 6th Circuit addresses that question today in a way favorable to the states.

Granny Flat Shout Out

A number of my readers are interested, like me, in the idea of promoting infill in Denver by making it easier to build granny flats, primarily in detached garages, in Denver. My next door neighbor has this arrangement, and it is certainly no more disruptive than the "QuickWins2" compliant duplex which is my other next door neighbor.

Anyway, Doug Hanna of Littleton has a blog that promotes plans for small houses including converted garages, and I'm offering this post as a shout out to her. (She also has dog toy and dog house blogs, something of interest to many of my neighbors, but not to me, a confirmed cat person, despite the fact that I have several dog law clients.)

06 January 2008

HD Radio, The New Eight Track

HD Radio ads are all over the conventional AM/FM radio spectrum. But the hype overstates the popularity of the new medium which is on track to be yet another failed technology.

Another Christmas comes and goes, and the celebration over a half million radios sold is about as meaningless as a big defensive lineman celebrating after a sack in a game his team is losing by five touchdowns.


In contrast, satellite radio has over 9 million subscribers, despite similarly priced receivers and a subscription cost of something on the order of $150 a year.

There are 1,300 stations serving the 500,000 HD radios. Many podcasts get more traffic. Some internet commentators have complained about HD radio not delivering on its CD quality sound promise, and my test listen at a local radio shack also didn't impress. As one blogger puts it:

HD Radio is here to stay and the worst part is the sound quality isn't even close to be as good as the audio from HDTV. It is better than AM or FM, but does it deserve to be tagged HD?


A Washington Post blogger faults poor content offerings for U.S. HD radio, noting that in Britain, a similar technology has sold 6 million units (despite the fact that the U.K. has 20% of the population of the United States).

Of course, the United States has lots of experience as a late adopter of new technologies. Cell phones, for example, grew in popularity much more slowly in the U.S. than in Europe because the Europeans didn't charge users per minute charges for incoming calls. Americans are just starting to get the high speed rail bug that has given short haul air service a run for its money in Europe, Japan and the Northeast Corridor. Hand held networked computer devices like the iPhone are just catching on in the U.S. after a long run of popularity in Japan. And, Americans are hot on the trail of the Brazilians of the 1980s in converting to biofuels, and the Europeans of the 1990s in converting to diesel.

04 January 2008

Reverse Shoplifting

Perhaps you've been to a "white elephant party" where you slough off presents you've received that you detest to others at the party. Well, the latest fad is to take that one step further in an act that is called "shopdropping" in which you deposit goods in a merchant's sales display, ideally complete with bar codes in the appropriate section. Participants in this activity call it art. Go figure.

03 January 2008

Iowa Implications

Democrats (1650/1781 precincts reporting in Iowa)

Senator Barack Obama 37.21%
Senator John Edwards 29.97%
Senator Hillary Clinton 29.57%
Governor Bill Richardson 2.15%
Senator Joe Biden 0.94%
Senator Chris Dodd 0.03%

Democratic NH polling (average of recent results):

Obama 30.8%
Clinton 29.2%
Edwards 26.0%
Biden 5.4%
Richardson 5.2%

Democratic analysis: There is no second tier, everyone outside the three leaders are done. This is a three way race and the "anti-Clinton" is now Obama, not Edwards. Clinton has also lost her aura of inevitability. I suspect that Obama will do a little better (probably winning NH) and Clinton a little worse than the NH polls above indicate, perhaps even dropping into the third spot again. A double Iowa and NH win, however, because the lead is modest, probably isn't enough to make Obama a definitive front runner either, however. A brokered convention isn't out of the realm of possibility, since no one will have enough time to gain a lot of momentum by the time that most of the delegates are spoken for in February. Obama needs a blow out performance in NH to get that kind of momentum and cleanly avoid a brokered convention.

But, in a brokered convention, I think that Obama has the edge. If he is still the front runner by then, I think that Edwards supporters will have a hard time claiming the nomination, if for no other reason than that Democrats have already had more than one Southern white male for President. Identify politics will prevent Clinton supporters from rallying around Edwards to push him over the hump. But, many Edwards supporters are as much anti-Clinton as they are pro-Edwards and don't have nearly so definite opinions about Obama. As a result, an Obama-Edwards or Obama-Clinton ticket seems likely to emerge if there is a brokered convention.

For Edwards and Clinton this calculus is bad news, if I'm right. Obama needs a plurality to have a good chance of winning, and is viable as long as he is close to even with the other two candidates in a brokered convention. In contrast, Edwards and Clinton may each need a majority to pull off the nomination. Despite a tough start, Clinton probably has a better chance at doing that than Edwards.

Due to the Clinton-Not Clinton dynamics of this race, Edwards is at greater risk of bleeding support to Obama than Clinton if Obama develops momentum in Iowa and NH. Edwards in contrast will be hard pressed to generate that momentum. Edwards is polling in a distant third place in Nevada, while Clinton may regain momentum there. Even more importantly, Edwards is also polling a distant third place in South Carolina which should be his home turf. Edwards is also in a distant third place in now irrelevant Michigan and Florida, in which Obama and Edwards will not be campaigning and which will not send delegates to the Democratic national convention.

Republicans (72% reporting in Iowa):

Huckabee 34%
Romney 25%
Thompson 14%
McCain 13%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 4%
Hunter 0%

Republican NH polling (average of recent results):

McCain 31.3%
Romney 28.8%
Giuliani 10.0%
Huckabee 9.5%
Paul 7.0%
Thompson 2.3%

Republican analysis: The Iowa results will probably drop McCain to at least second place in NH, and will probably drop Giuliani to at least fourth place in NH. Huckabee will probably rise to at least third place in NH.

A sixth place showing in Iowa for Giuliani and what is likely to be no better than a fourth place showing in NH for Giuliani is probably enough to doom his candidacy.

Thompson's third place performance in Iowa will not be enough to drag him out of sixth place in NH. Thompson is done.

Paul's fifth place performance in Iowa just conceivably could bring him up as high as fourth place in NH, if Giuliani falls far enough over the next half a week, but a fifth place in Iowa followed by a fourth or fifth place in NH is not good enough to get him the nomination, he is not a viable candidate now if he ever was for the GOP race although he might still come to Denver this August to claim the Libertarian Party crown at its national convention. A Ron Paul third party run might create a spoiler for the Republican nominee, particularly if that nominee is Huckabee, who alienates based on his economic and foreign policy stances, or Romney, who alienates due to animus against Mormons.

I don't think Huckabee will beat Romney in NH, which is Romney's home turf, and a place where Republicans are more economic than religiously oriented than almost anywhere else in the country. Romney will leave NH as a viable candidate, as will Huckabee for whom expectations are low and likely to be exceeded.

The wild card in NH is McCain. His poor Iowa showing hurts him, but he is also a natural place for discouraged Giuliani supporters to flee. He has a realistic shot at a second place finish in NH and an outside shot at a first place finish there. If he can't beat Huckabee in NH, I think that McCain is probably doomed. Fourth place in Iowa, far behind the two front runners, and third place in NH, with the same two people in the top two spots in both states, would probably take McCain out of the running, and certainly would put great pressure for McCain to deliver in South Carolina (where McCain is in fourth place and Huckabee leads) and Nevada (where he is currently in fifth place behind a third place Huckabee who is still surging). On the other hand, second place in NH and fourth place in Iowa still keeps pressure on McCain, but doesn't take him out of the running. McCain also has little to hope for in Michigan and Florida which are also not irrelevant to the Republican race (the national party has simply given those states fewer than their fare share of delegates), and McCain is currently in third place behind Romney and Huckabee in Michigan and in fourth place behind Giuliani, Romney and Huckabee in Florida.

Bottom line for the GOP: While the signals are a bit muddy still, I think that this is now a three way race with Huckabee, Romney and McCain as the only candidates left with a real shot at the nomination, and their strongest general election candidate, McCain, will be hard pressed to gain the momentum he needs to get in January, to cinch the nomination in the remaining contests.

General election impact

The fact that Iowa has almost identical numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans, but had twice as much turnout at their caucuses, is a bad omen for Republicans in the general election, particularly because the Republican race was more interesting this year in Iowa.

Giuliani's wash out is good for Democrats because he could easily be seen as a moderate in the general election.

McCain's poor showing in Iowa is good news for Democrats for the same reason, although McCain's strong polling in NH means that he isn't out of contention yet. If polling means anything this early on, McCain is the biggest threat to Democrats in a general election, although not as strong a threat as he was four years ago. Even worse for Democrats, Edwards does best vis-a-vis McCain in a head to head race, and Edwards seems least likely to win the Democratic party nomination at this point.

Romney is probably less of a threat to Democrats than Huckabee, because many people simply do not trust him and never will despite the fact that they actually agree with him on the issues. Not only is he a Mormon, but he is also a man from the Northeast a region that people in many Republican strongholds distrust.

Huckabee is hard to figure in a general election. He could cement conservative working class support in a way that other Republican candidates can't do nearly so well. But, the guys is dumber than a fifth grader when it comes to foreign policy, is religious and Southern white enough to make liberals fear him and organize against him, and offers little to the economically oriented win of the Republican party to cause them to support him over Clinton or Obama. On the other hands, when did American voters ever want their Presidents to be smart? A dual populist Edwards v. Huckabee race is also hard to gauge. I don't trust head to head polling on Huckabee because most people who aren't political junkies don't know him very well yet.

As a Democrat, I hope that the Republicans pick Romney because I think he's their weakest candidate with a shot at the nomination. He lacks charisma, has established himself as a flip flopper, and brings few exciting issues to the table.

Perimeter Institute For Theoretical Physics

Until today, I hadn't realized how concentrated the luminaries of what might broadly be called the "respectible minority positions" in theoretical physics are at the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics in Waterloo, Canada.

The have John Moffat, the modified gravity as opposed to dark matter and dark energy guy, they have Leonard Susskind in particle physics and superstring theory (among other things one of the inventors of technicolor theory), and they have Lee Smolin, the guru of quantum gravity.

The place was founded in 1999 by Blackberry gazzillionaire Mike Lazaridis. The place has armies of post-docs.

The joy of theoretical physics is that it is relatively cheap to get a lot of brainpower together because these guys don't need their own billion dollar laboratory instruments.

Has J.W. Moffat figured it out?

Observed matter and existing laws of physics do not explain what astronomers observe. One way to reconcile this issue is the propose "dark matter" and "dark energy" of types unknown that make up most of the universe. The leading dark matter theory known as lambda cold dark matter has become the majority explanation, although there is less of a consensus about what dark energy might be. Dark matter theorist can point to nothing in the current standard model menagerie of particles that acts like dark matter needs to act, however.

One of the earliest and initially successful alternatives called MOND by Professor Milgrom was a modified law of gravity. It had a solid predictive value at galactic scales but has crashed and burned in the galactic cluster context. The leading successor to this approach is now J.W. Moffat, of Waterloo, Ontario, whose claims that his ever name changing theory, currently known as MOG for modified gravity, overcomes problems of earlier theories with the same approach such as MOND (a good overview of both theories is found here and also at this power point presentation).

Notably, the theory identifies inertia as the cumulative gravitational effect of distant objects, an idea similar to the idea known as "Mach's principal" but with a different theoretical basis. The flavor of the theory can be seen in the early part of one of his recent papers:

The preferred model of cosmology today, the CDM model, provides an excellent fit to cosmological observations, but at a substantial cost: according to this model, about 96% of the universe is either invisible or undetectable, or possibly both. This fact provides a strong incentive to seek alternative explanations that can account for cosmological observations without resorting to dark matter or Einstein’s cosmological constant.

For gravitational theories designed to challenge the CDM model, the bar is set increasingly higher by recent discoveries. Not only do such theories have to explain successfully the velocity dispersions, rotational curves, and gravitational lensing of galaxies and galaxy clusters, the theories must also be in accord with cosmological observations, notably the acoustic power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), the matter power spectrum of galaxies, and the recent observation of the luminosity-distance relationship of high-z supernovae, which is seen as evidence for “dark energy”.

Modified Gravity (MOG) (Moffat 2006) has been used successfully to account for galaxy cluster masses (Brownstein & Moffat 2006a), the rotation curves of galaxies (Brownstein & Moffat 2006b), velocity dispersions of satellite galaxies (Moffat & Toth 2007c), and globular clusters (Moffat & Toth 2007b). It was also used to offer an explanation for the Bullet Cluster (Brownstein & Moffat 2007) without resorting to cold dark matter.

Remarkably, MOG also meets the challenge posed by cosmological observations. In this paper, it is demonstrated that MOG produces an acoustic power spectrum, a matter power spectrum, and a luminosity-distance relationship that are in good agreement with observations, and require no dark matter nor Einstein’s cosmological
constant. . . .

2 MODIFIED GRAVITY THEORY

Modified Gravity (MOG) is a fully relativistic theory of gravitation that is derived from a relativistic action principle (Moffat 2006) involving scalar, tensor, and vector fields. . . .

2.1 Scalar-Tensor-Vector Gravity

Our modified gravity theory is based on postulating the existence of a massive vector field, μ. The choice of a massive vector field is motivated by our desire to introduce a repulsive modification of the law of gravitation at short range. The vector field is coupled universally to matter. The theory, therefore, has three constants: in addition to the gravitational constant G, we must also consider the coupling constant ! that determines the coupling strength between the μ field and matter, and a further constant μ that arises as a result of considering a vector field of non-zero mass, and controls the coupling range.


As one of his earlier papers (possibly with an earlier version of the theory, I have trouble discerning whether it is precisely the same or not) explains:

An important feature of the . . . theories is that the modified acceleration law for weak gravitational fields has a repulsive Yukawa force added to the Newtonian acceleration law. This corresponds to the exchange of a massive spin 1 boson, whose effective mass and coupling to matter can vary with distance scale. A scalar component added to the Newtonian force law would correspond to an attractive Yukawa force and the exchange of a spin 0 particle. The latter acceleration law cannot lead to a satisfactory fit to galaxy rotation curves and galaxy cluster data. . . .

A modified gravity theory based an a D = 4 pseudo-Riemannian metric, a spin 1 vector field and a corresponding second-rank skew field Bμ and dynamical scalar fields G, ω and μ, yields a static spherically symmetric gravitational field with an added Yukawa potential and with an effective coupling strength and distance range. This modified acceleration law leads to remarkably good fits to a large number of galaxies [3] and galaxy clusters [5]. . . .

In contrast to standard dark matter models, we should not search for new stable particles such as weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPS) or neutralinos, because the fifth force charge . . . that is the source of the neutral vector field (skew field) is carried by the known stable baryons (and electrons and neutrinos). This new charge is the source of a fifth force skew field that modifies the gravitational field in the universe.


Translated into English, one way of articulating what this theory does is do away with dark matter, dark energy, extra dimensions, the Higgs particle or other undiscovered fundamental particles in favor of what you could either call a modification of the law of General Relativity, or a fifth force (in addition to the electromagnetic force, the strong nuclear force, the weak nuclear force and traditional gravity). His theory also identifies the Big Bang as a non-singularity from which the Second Law of Thermodynamics proceeds in opposite time directions (forward in time in ours, backward in time on the other side of the Big Bang).

Thus, overall Moffat provides a less weird explanation of the world than most other prevailing theories trying to explain current observations, while claiming to fit the data. This doesn't mean that Moffat is right, or even that I believe he is right. Minority theories in science usually fail and usually fail for good reason. But, it would certainly be comforting if he was right, and it appears that it may be feasible to figure out if he is right using means available over the next decade or two.

If the Large Hadron Collider defeats everyone's expectations and fails to detect a Higgs boson, then Moffat's scientific stock will rise immensely.

Footnote, a non-MOG paper of Moffat's about the nation that gravitons may be bound pairs to neutrinos and could explain dark energy is similarly interesting:

The graviton is pictured as a bound state of a fermion and anti-
fermion with the spacetime metric assumed to be a composite object
of spinor fields . . . . If we assume that the fermion is a light neutrino
with mass m ∼ 10−3 eV, then we obtain the effective vacuum density
¯ ∼ (10−3 eV )4, which agrees with the estimates for the cosmological
constant from WMAP and SNIa data. . . .

[W]e have predicted a vacuum density ¯ρ ∼ (10−3 eV )4 in agreement with λCDM model estimates from WMAP and SNIa data, when we identify the bound state fermion associated with the graviton condensate with a light neutrino with mass m = m ∼ 10−3 eV. By identifying ψ with a light neutrino field, we have predicted the correct magnitude of ¯ρ that fits the λCDM model interpretation of dark energy. This suggests that we describe the dark energy as graviton condensates formed from fluctuating light neutrinos. The source of dark energy would be light neutrino and anti-neutrino condensates.


The research of Jack Burns from the University of Colorado at Boulder, featured on Colorado Matters today, also provides some interesting insight into how galactic clusters, where MOND theory fails, differ from other cosmic phenomena. He notes that galactic clusters tend to appear at the intersections of hard to see gaseous macrofiliments of matter that seem to form the skeletal outline of the universe.

Undecideds and the Irrationality of Politics

Kos called attention to an article by Christopher Hayes from post-election November 2004 about undecided voters, which shed empirically based insight into their thinking. The shorter version:

Undecided voters value strong personalities, don't believe that politicians are capable of solving big problems, have little information, act irrationally, and are not infrequently "crypto-racist isolationists."

I provide some excerpts below:

"These people," Jonah Goldberg once wrote of undecided voters, on a rare occasion when he probably spoke for the entire political class, "can't make up their minds, in all likelihood, because either they don't care or they don't know anything." And that was more or less how I felt before I decided to spend the last seven weeks of the campaign talking to swing voters in Wisconsin. . . .

Undecided voters aren't as rational as you think. . . . [T]here was the woman who called our office . . . [as] she had now decided to back Bush. Why? Because the president supported stem cell research. . . . one of our fellow organizers tr[ied], nobly, to disabuse her of this notion. Despite having the facts on her side, the organizer didn't have much luck.

Undecided voters . . . [are] "relatively low-information, relatively disengaged," [and] . . . view politics . . . as a chore, a duty, something that must be done but is altogether unpleasant, and therefore something best put off for as long as possible.

A disturbing number of undecided voters are crypto-racist isolationists. . . .

Undecided voters . . . have a deep skepticism about the ability of politicians to keep their promises and solve problems. So the staggering incompetence and irresponsibility of the Bush administration and the demonstrably poor state of world affairs seemed to serve not as indictments of Bush in particular, but rather of politicians in general. . . . Because undecideds seemed uninterested in assessing responsibility for the past, Bush suffered no penalty for having made things so bad; and because undecideds were focused on, but cynical about, the future, the worse things appeared, the less inclined they were to believe that problems could be fixed . . . .

Undecided voters don't think in terms of issues. . . . Occasionally I did encounter undecided voters who were genuinely cross-pressured--a couple who was fiercely pro-life, antiwar, and pro-environment for example--but such cases were exceedingly rare. . . . when I asked undecided voters what issues they would pay attention to as they made up their minds I was met with a blank stare, as if I'd just asked them to name their favorite prime number. The majority of undecided voters I spoke to couldn't name a single issue that was important to them. . . . the very concept of the issue seemed to be almost completely alien to most of the undecided voters . . . the problem wasn't the word "issue"; it was a fundamental lack of understanding of what constituted the broad category of the "political." The undecideds I spoke to didn't seem to have any intuitive grasp of what kinds of grievances qualify as political grievances. Often, once I would engage undecided voters, they would list concerns, such as the rising cost of health care; but when I would tell them that Kerry had a plan to lower health-care premiums, they would respond in disbelief--not in disbelief that he had a plan, but that the cost of health care was a political issue. It was as if you were telling them that Kerry was promising to extend summer into December. . . . Kerry ran a campaign that was about politics: He parsed the world into political categories and offered political solutions. Bush did this too, but it wasn't the main thrust of his campaign. Instead, the president ran on broad themes, like "character" and "morals." Everyone feels an immediate and intuitive expertise on morals and values--we all know what's right and wrong. But how can undecided voters evaluate a candidate on issues if they don't even grasp what issues are?


While a majority of voters are Republicans, Democrats, or are independent voters who make up their minds in a particular election contest well in advance, a significant and often decisive share, perhaps one in five or one in ten, are undecided voters who defy the models into which political scientists like to pigeonhole them.

If you trust the wisdom of crowds this may still be a wise thing, but I'm inclined instead to see it as a fundamental weakness of a democratic system of government. The problem is how to get informed and rational decision making, without systematically disenfranchising people who also have different political interests than people who would participate if efforts were made to screen for rational voters. The franchise was broadened with strong liberal support largely because no one could devise a better solution to that conundrum.

02 January 2008

Health Care and Federal Tax Complexity

The federal tax law that applies to health insurance benefits and medical expenses is unnecessarily complex, and fixing the problems could be done fairly easily.

The Status Quo

1. Self-Employed v. Employer Health Insurance.

Health insurance provide by an employer is not included in the income of an employee for purposes of either income taxation or FICA, but is deductible by the employer as a compensation expense.

Self-employed people (i.e. sole proprietors, partners and S corporation owners even if they receive primarily wages), in contrast, receive an above the line income tax deduction (which is a close equivalent to an exclusion of income for income tax purposes) for health insurance, but not for self-employment tax purposes (the self-employed person's substitute for FICA).

2. Personal v. Employer Health Insurance.

Health insurance not provided by an employer for someone who is not self-employed is deductible for income tax purposes, but not does not reduce that person's income for FICA tax purposes, just like an self-employed person. But, unlike self-employed people, this deduction is an itemized deduction. Thus, it is only available for people who itemize their tax returns (in practice, typically almost all homeowners and high income renters in states with income taxes). And, the deduction does not cover the first 7.5% of adjusted gross income spent on medical expenses including health insurance.

An employer that adopts a certain kind of Section 125 flexible benefit program for employees, something that requires no employer contribution other than administrative expenses, however, can give personally purchased health insurance of an employee the same treatment as employer provided health insurance (i.e. an above the line deduction that is also pre-FICA).

Generally speaking, Section 125 plans are not available to self-employed people.

3. Out of Pocket Health Care Expenditures.

Normally, out of pocket health expenditures other than health insurance reduce your taxable income only if you itemize and tax a medical expense deduction, and then reduce only your income taxes (not FICA or self-employment taxes) and applies only to amounts in excess of 7.5% of adjusted gross income.

In cases where exceptions to this general rule do not apply, this creates a tax incentive to purchase health insurance with low or not deductibles, because health insurance expenditures are favored to a greater extent in the tax code than other medical expenditures for employees with employer provided health care or a Section 125 plan and self-employed people.

But, there are exceptions. The principal ones are "Medical Savings Accounts" also known as Archer MSAs, which have since fallen out of favor (and may be phased out) as a second called "Health Savings Accounts" were adopted. A third exception is for Section 125 flexible spending accounts, and a fourth is a health reimbursement account.

The Archer MSAs are available only to self-employed people and small businesses (under 51 employees) in connection with a high deductible health insurance plan under Internal Revenue Code Section 220. Contributions by self-employed people are deductible up to 65% of the deductible (75% for families). Contributions by employers for employees are treated as health insurance expenditures and excluded from income, while contributions from employees receive treatment similar to that of self-employed people. Interest is tax free. Withdrawals before age 65 or a disability for non-medical expense purposes are subject to penalties similar to those for an early individual retirement account distribution (taxable and subject to a 15% penalty). Withdrawals for non-medical purposes for the disabled or elderly are taxable but not subject to a penalty. A similar option is available in connection with certain Medicare benefits under Internal Revenue Code Section 138.

Health savings accounts under Internal Revenue Code Section 223 can be set up by an employer with employer contributions or as part of a Section 125 flexible benefits plan (aka a cafeteria plan) with payroll deductions. Like Archer MSAs they are available only to high deductible health insurance plan enrollees, but unlike Archer MSAs they are not limited to small employers and self-employed people. Employer and employee payroll deduction contributions are excluded from income and FICA taxation. Self-employed and non-employer based contributions are above the line income tax deductible, but are not excluded from FICA taxation or self-employment taxes. Contributions are limited to $2,850 for an individual and $5,650 for a family, with an additional $800 of contributions allowed for people aged 55-64. Withdrawals for medical expenses are tax free. Over the counter drugs are permissible expenditures (unlike the medical expense itemized deduction). Withdrawals for non-medical expenses are taxable income and subject to a 10% penalty (the penalty does not apply to those age 65 or older or who are disabled).

A flexible spending account is a use it or lose it fund, up to $5,000 a year, set up by an employer that can be used for medical expenses including over the counter drugs that are not tax deductible for itemizers. The full amount is available at the beginning of the year, on a reimbursement basis. Contributions are typically deducted from each pay check in an amount set by the employee although the employer can contribute as well. Payments out of the account are tax free for both income tax and FICA purposes. These accounts are usually offered in connection with health insurance plans, but they need not be high deductible plans.

A health reimbursement account (created under Internal Revenue Code Section 105) is an agreement by an employer to pay specified kinds of health care costs. The reimbursements actually paid are treated like health insurance expenditures for tax purposes (i.e. excluded from income tax and FICA income) and do not involve an employee contribution. Self-employed people are not eligible. These plans either operate as self-funded health insurance plans or are offered in connection with another health insurance policy of any type.

While medical savings accounts and health savings accounts earn tax free interest, the tax savings from this component of the plans is typically nominal compared to the other tax benefits, because the amount of income is typically small, and the time period before the funds are used are typically only a few years.

The Solutions

Eliminating the 7.5% of adjusted gross income limitation on the medical expense deduction would end the income tax disparity between people who pay personal health insurance and those with self-employed health insurance under current law for itemizers.

Eliminating the 7.5% of adjusted gross income limitation on the medical expense deduction would also eliminate the vast majority of the income tax disparity between people who make out of pocket medical expenditures and those who are reimbursed out of an employer plan or tax privileged savings account of some sort.

Allowing the medical expense deduction to include over the counter drugs would further reduce the gap between medical savings accounts and reimbursement plans on one hand and the medical expense deduction on the other.

An additional tax credit for employees with medical expenses (including health insurance) equal to 7.5% of their itemized medical expenses up to FICA amounts actually paid would virtually eliminate the tax disadvantages for non-employer provided health care to the employee (although the employer would not get a FICA refund and would still be worse off for not providing health insurance and a savings plan). It would also eliminate positive or negative biases in favor of a particular deductible level, leaving the market to resolve that issue.

A shift of the medical expense deduction to be an above the line deduction for non-itemizers (also eligible for the tax credit) which would end disparate treatment of itemizers and non-itemizers.

The tax free interest benefit of medical savings accounts could be partially preserved by allowing withdrawals from individual retirement accounts to be made for unreimbursed medical expenses eligible for the medical expense deduction.

Fixing The Complexity From The Fix

These would also create record keeping complexity for non-itemizers. The over the counter drug deduction would also create additional complexity for itemizers.

A good solution to this problem would be to have two changes that would ease the consequences of poor record keeping.

First, health insurance companies could send a 1099-like form to covered individuals once a year showing health insurance premiums paid by that individual (if any), and the deductibles and co-payments spent by the person under the plan each year, something the companies already keeps track of even though the insured pays for them, allowing the taxpayer with health insurance who doesn't itemize to get most of the tax benefit with far less record keeping.

Second, there could be a standard deduction equal to the average per capita spending on over the counter drugs (perhaps one $50 standard deduction amount per exemption claimed on the return and an additional deduction in the same amount in addition for each person claimed as an exemption on the return who is over age 65), which could be claimed for people who don't want to keep track of over the counter drug spending. Those who document their over the counter drug expenses could claim a larger amount.

Transition Issues

While health care related plans under Internal Revenue Code Sections 105, 125, 220 and 223 could be repealed as they would be largely obsolete with the tax code changes I suggest, there is no compelling reason to do so right away.

Allowing people to jump through hoops to get a tax benefit that they can get even if they don't comply with the rules doesn't hurt anybody and keeping those sections on the books simplifies the transition with no tax revenue impact. Phase out rules would be more complicated to explain. Keeping these provision on the books would also eliminate the need to analyze what tiny niches of people might be hurt by their repeal.

Nuts and Bolts

A repeal Internal Revenue Code Section 162(l)(4) would eliminate the disparity between employer provided health insurance and self-employed health insurance which has no solid policy basis.

The 7.5% of adjusted gross income limitation if found at Internal Revenue Code Section 213(a) and could be eliminated by striking the last thirteen words of that provision.

The over the counter drug exclusion is found at Internal Revenue Code Section 213(b) which could be repealed, and replaced with the over the counter drug standard deduction.

The FICA tax credit would probably fit best in the tax code as an amendment to Internal Revenue Code Section 35, which provides health insurance tax credits to certain qualified individuals impacts by NAFTA and people receiving pension benefit guarantee payments, as a new Internal Revenue Code Section 35A.

Internal Revenue Code Section 62(a) (definition of adjusted gross income) could be amended to create an above the line deduction instead of an itemized one.

Internal Revenue Code Section 72(t) would be amended to allow penalty free withdrawals from retirement accounts for medical expenditures.

An addition section on information returns from health insurance companies would also have to be added to the information return part of the Code.

Conclusion

A bill only several pages long could dramatically simplify the federal tax treatment of health care, at a fairly modest tax cost (I'll save a specific revenue impact estimate for another post). This is not too surprising because it is possible for any business to structure its affairs in a way that achieves this end with the tools described above. Indeed, the key point of taking the step to simplify like this is that it simply reduces dead weight transaction costs and makes benefits available to the less sophisticated without letting anyone get more than they could have before with sufficient effort.

The simplification generally, would also make it easier for the uninsured and small businesses to secure health care, something that elaborate tax rules discourages both groups from even investigating, and something that the inability of employees in these situations to negotiate for benefits prevents them from achieving all together.

The reform would also probably be progressive in a tax sense because it would benefit primarily people who don't have employer provided health insurance with lots of bells and whistles who tend to have lower incomes.

No this isn't a radical overhaul of anything. The tax code probably isn't the place to do that. It is simply a way to simply the tax code that gives us something similar to the status quo but better to work from until a better solution can be secured.

The Impact of Caucuses In Colorado

The Daily Kos post is about Iowa, but the criticisms are equally applicable to Colorado.

As in years past, voters must present themselves in person, at a specified hour, and stay for as long as two. And if these caucuses are anything like prior ones, only a tiny percentage of Iowans will participate. In 2000, the last year in which both parties held caucuses, 59,000 Democrats and 87,000 Republicans voted, in a state with 2.9 million people. In 2004, when the Republicans did not caucus, 124,000 people turned out for the Democratic caucuses.[...]

While the Republican caucuses are fairly simple — voters can leave shortly after they declare their preferences — Democratic caucuses can require more time and multiple candidate preferences from participants. They do not conform to the one-person, one-vote rule, because votes are weighted according to a precinct’s past level of participation.


Historical turnout in Colorado for caucuses hovers around 1% of registered voters in the party, compared to about 8% for Iowa, although Colorado has not had a Presidential caucus in recent history and turnout tends to be driven by top of the ticket races. This year, Colorado should have high turnout at its February 5 caucuses since a Presidential race is at stake and not tied up. But, the turnout will still be smaller than Iowa because the tradition of an early Presidential caucus is not well established in Colorado. Both figures, of course, are far lower than primary election turnouts which are rarely less than 10% and not infrequently have turnouts in the range of 30% to 40% of active registered voters affiliated with a political party. Caucus attendees are far more strongly partisan and politically active than primary voters.

The deviation from the one man, one vote idea reflects the caucus notion that attendees are serving a delegates serving in a representative capacity on behalf of party members in their precinct, not strictly in a personal capacity. Those who benefit from this model are in precincts with lots of party members, and poor caucus day turnout, on the theory that those who attend are better representative of those who can't attend than caucus attendees statewide. In short, it partially remedies the exclusive nature of the caucus. In particular, it is designed to prevent a precinct with a highly effective turnout campaign from dominating the process. In the same way, members of Congress and state legislatures are elected with dramatically different numbers of votes, but no one thinks of those bodies as violating the one man, one vote rule. Also, at a precinct level, in practice, the differences from one man, one vote are modest.

Unlike Iowa, which has multiple candidate preference expressions at the base level of the system, Colorado usually obtains only top of the ticket preferences on caucus nights and levels delegates chosen on that occasion to nominate candidates at later county, multi-county district and state assemblies and conventions over the next couple of months. As a result, candidates are placed on the ballot in down ticket races by people who must show even more commitment to the point of basically being party officials, and are smaller in number than the number of people who turn out on caucus day. This means that Colorado is considerably more exclusive than Iowa in down ticket races. In theory, the system should also produce coattail effects that benefit down ticket candidates allied with top of the ticket candidates, but the factions in the Colorado Democratic Party aren't well enough defined for this effect to be very meaningful in practice.

Colorado allows candidates to petition onto a primary ballot instead of gaining access via the caucus process, but fewer than 5% of candidates who ultimately are elected use the petition route. Colorado will have no Presidential primary at all this year. Strong candidates usually only petition in open seats with many strong candidates running at once where the caucus system's rules can produce quirky results in multi-candidate races. Described negatively this means that most people are effectively excluded from a key piece of the process of narrowing the ranks of potential candidates to the top Republican and top Democrat. This is a step that effectively decides the race in jurisdictions that lopsidedly favor one party or the other and tends to exclude moderates from public office. Described positively, however, this allows political parties in Colorado to have a high degree of control over who they nominate to represent them, giving political parties greater coherence.

There are five primary benefits of caucuses.

First, they tend to lead to more informed decision making because attendees often hearing speeches from candidates (or at least a spokesperson for a candidate) immediately before making a decision. This is particularly important in down ticket races that are poorly covered by the mass media. A related issue is that party nominees are more likely to reflect the party's ideology, because the unorthodox views of marginal party members tend to be excluded.

Second, it is much easier to mount a low budget primary campaign through the caucus process than by appealing to the general public, which is particularly important for minor statewide offices like state treasurer, secretary of state, C.U. Regent and state school board member. This makes it easier for less affluent candidates to run in these race and frees candidates in these races from dependence upon raising big money from campaign contributors until a nomination is assured.

Third, caucuses provide a way for parties to identify, mobilize and reward volunteers. Most caucus attendees ultimately do some work for the party. Many party leaders got involved by being roped into serving as a precinct committee person or some other party office at a caucus, and then catching the politics bug after feeling duty bound to follow through on their caucus day obligation. Without the caucuses, party leaders would be far less in touch with the active rank and file members of the party.

Fourth, caucuses are easy on the public purse and lower transaction costs. Unlike primary elections, which are usually run by governments at their expense, caucuses are, in Colorado at least, paid for by the parties themselves. And, while this is expensive for a small non-profit organization like a county political party, it is in the aggregate far less expensive than having the government conduct a primary election.

Fifth, caucuses spare the general public from informing themselves about and resolving races that they don't care about or race where there is a clear dominant candidate, while involving them in close, important fights over the party's direction (usually with all viable candidates appearing on the ballot via the caucus process).

I'm ambivalent about the caucus v. primary debate and see both sides of it. I also come at the debate seeing it a symptom of a deeper issue. We have a political primary system with two major parties in the United States because our general election rules produce bad reesult in cases with more than two viable candidates as a result of spoiler effects. If we had a Denver style non-partisan multi-round election process, or instant runoff voting that approximates the multi-round election process in a single transaction, or a proportional representation system in multi-member bodies, political primaries would be unnecessary, or at least far less important. But, in the absence of that kind of general election system, partisan primaries act to create a rough justice comparable result with an otherwise flawed system, and both primaries and caucuses serve those objectives in different ways.

Trimming the Federal Court Workload

Current federal court case loads are as follows:

The Supreme Court of the United States
Cases Filed 8,521 (up 4%)
*Paid 1,723
*In Forma Pauperis 7,132
Argued 78

The Federal Courts of Appeals
Filed 58,140 (down 12% mostly)
*Criminal 13,167 (down 14% to pre-Booker level which set record in 2005)
*Adminstrative 10,382 (down 21% due to BIA caseload drop from record in 2005)
*Civil 30,241 (down 5%)
**Prisoner's Petitions 15,472 (down 8% to pre-Booker levels)
*Original Proceedings 3,775 (down 31% to pre-Booker levels)

The Federal District Courts

Civil 257,507 (down 1%).
* Diversity 72,619 (down 10%) (due to drop in asbestos and diet cases in E.D. of PA)
* Federal question 139,424 (up 3%)
* U.S. Party 45,464 (up 3%)

Median disposition time 9.6 months (up 1 month mostly due to M.D.LA oil refinery explosion cases)

Criminal 68,413 (up 2%; defendants up 1% to 89,306)

Median disposition time 7.1 months

Bankruptcy Courts
801,269 (down 28% due to new bankruptcy law and pre-effective date surge)
*Nonbusiness (down 29%)
*Business (down 5%)

Chapter 7 (down 42%)
Chapter 11 (down 2%)
Chapter 12 (down 4%)
Chapter 13 (up 13%)

Post-Conviction Supervision
Persons under post-conviction supervision 116,221 (up 2%)
* Supervised release 89,497
* Parole 2,575
* Probation 23,974

Analysis

A two year old Supreme Court case, a two year old major bankruptcy law revision, an ill advised immigration appeal system reform implemented by Attorney General Ashcroft and tweaked by Attorney General Gonzales, and three mass tort cases account for the vast majority of the trends observed in the dockets that have otherwise been stable.

Reform

As my regular readers know, I favor a dramatic reduction in the docket of the federal courts for federalism, litigant cost and political policy reasons. The substantive and procedural laws and rules that apply in federal court and the judges that preside there are worse from a progressive point of view than most state courts handling similar matters most of the time.

Federal crimes

Federal criminal offenses that are duplicative of state crimes, such as intrastate murder, bank robbery, drug and firearm offenses, should be removed from the statute books. There is no reason for the federal courts to handle local drug possession, drug dealing and drug manufacture cases. The role for the federal criminal courts in national drug policy is to handle cases of international and interstate transportation of drugs, and to multistate drug distribution rings. Notably, the vast majority of state drug laws either carry less draconian sentences for comparable offenses than the federal mandatory minimum sentence regime, often with treatment oriented drug court options, or are in the process of being reformed.

The existing system in which serious criminal offenses in Indian country are tried in federal court is also broken (a failed policy establisehed in 1885). I'm not enough of an expert in Indian law to know how to fix it, and I'm inclined to think that simply following the most logical step of vesting jurisdiction over those cases in state courts would offend Native American tribes' ideas about sovereignty. One attractive idea might be to have all (or most) Indian tribes agree by treaty to create a parallel system analogous bureaucratically to the military justice system in which a "Circuit Court of Indian Country" might have trial judges who ride circuit conducting trials in serious criminal cases in tribal court court houses, and also have an appellate division in which other judges hear appeals from those cases second only to the U.S. Supreme Court.

I would envision these two reforms reducing the criminal case load of the federal courts by about 40%, with an even more dramatic reduction in the share of violent crimes handled in the federal courts. Smuggling cases, corruption cases, immigration cases, regulatory cases and interstate white collar cases would dominant the remaining docket.

A more sensible immigration policy could also dramatically shrink the federal criminal docket. About of quarter of all federal criminal cases involve charges of alien smuggling, illegal entry, or illegal reentry, something that would decline dramatically if immigration quotas better matched demand, but something that is not included in the estimates in this post.

The Federal Civil Docket

Diversity jurisdiction in cases that do not have complete international diversity, other than multi-state class actions, product liablity and interpleader cases, should be eliminated. This would cut the diversity jurisdiction docket by about 35%. Car accidents and contractual disputes between businesses in different states make up a large share of these cases, and state courts are better qualified to handle these cases than the federal courts that have to pretend to be state courts for many purposes when dealing with these cases.

Federal question jurisdiction involving private parties should be narrowed to those cases that have always been in the exclusive jurisdiction of the federal courts or in the jurisdiction of the federal courts regardless of the amount in controversy even when there was an amount in controversy requirement. This would reduce the federal question docket by about 20%, primarily by returning non-union/management employment cases to the state courts. The federal courts have done a miserable job of handling these employment cases and there is no reason that the federal courts are uniquely qualified to handle disputes between private parties between domestic employers and their employees (usually in the same state) over wrongful terminations, minimum wage and overtime disputes, and employee benefit issues, simply because they arise under federal rather than state laws.

There is also no reason that student loan collections can't be handled outside federal courts by transferring them to a non-profit corporation without U.S. government status, to be enforce just like student loans from commercial lenders. The changes suggested above would also keep out of federal courts the vast majority of drug related property forfeiture cases. These changes would cut the number of U.S. Plaintiff casees roughly in half.

The reduced size of the federal criminal docket would reduce the number of U.S. Defendant cases by 15%, largely by reducing the number of petitioners from federal prisoners. The bulk of the U.S. Defendant cases are social security benefit disputes and federal prisoner's petitions.

Overall, the reduction in the federal civil docket from these reforms would be about 25%, which combined with a 40% reduction in the federal criminal docket would reduce the total demand on federal district courts by about 28%. This would be handled managerially by not renewing the contracts of federal magistrate judges who serve for fixed terms, rather than the lifetime terms of office of federal district judges. In the U.S. Courts of Appeals, the number of senior judges and staff lawyers could be reduced to handle a corrosponding decline in work.

The increased demand on the state court systems from these reforms would be modest (in most states, a one-time increase of less than 2% in case loads) because federal cases make up such a small percentage of all civil and criminal cases respectively.

Primary source: SCOTUS press release.

01 January 2008

Farewell to CoCo

After a year and a half of writing for Colorado Confidential, I'm moving on. The first six months, as a charter member of its staff, during which I posted about six stories a week, was intense and almost took me out with the carpal tunnel problems that I was starting to develop doing that on top of my day job. The last ten months, with six to eight stories a month with a narrower beat brought more balance to my life, while retaining the discipline of writing for publication, regularly, on deadline. Of course, my day job also involves writing on deadline.

But, it will be nice to slow down, breath deeply and take more time to engage in more opinionated, less news cycle driven analysis of the more subtle emerging stories at this blog. I'm also considering digging into some longer form academic writing. I did a conference paper on contracts about a year ago, but it is time to get back to academic writing.

I'm considering rethinking my post mix, with quick hits over coffee in the mornings, and longer analytical posts on late lunch breaks and in the evenings when time permits. Don't consider this a promise however. Muses are notoriously insistant on being served when they are in the mood and have serious performance anxiety if you push them for something too specific -- they can produce in those circumstances, but it isn't always their best work.

CoCo has made a valuable contribution to the Colorado media universe. Because it focuses on just one thing, coverage of state and local politics and related matters, it can do it well. It has reporting resources in that area comparable to a mid-sized daily newspaper. State and local politics are undercovered by the traditional media, so there are lots of untold stories that should be made available to a wider audience. Its commercial free character provides it independence from corporate America, not Consumer Reports style because it doesn't do a lot of business journalism, but freedom from the fear of offending people and thereby spooking advertisers that render advertising driven news outlets timid.

There are growing pains. It was created intentionally to be neither fish nor fowl with a staff drawn from both journalists and bloggers. CoCo is still working on finding its niche and deciding what it wants to be when it grows up. Sometimes it does muckracking investigative journalism. Sometimes it has op-ed style pieces with big name columnists. Sometimes it does breaking news. Sometimes it does analytical pieces. It has experimented with RSS feeds with mixed success. But, it is still working on finding a mix for the whole that gells with the various parts, and better distinguishing visually the various kinds of contributions it receives; currently icons are helping readers quickly process the various kinds of stories it offers. It also has to balance its mission to train citizen blogger-journalists with its mission to inform the wider public about Colorado politics. CoCo is a bit like a teaching hospital, but for journalists rather than for doctors.

Still it was a worthwhile experience, I'm glad I did it, and I look forward to the experiment's continued success.

Nuclear Cruisers

The Defense bill recently passed by Congress, which President Bush has questionably claimed to have pocket vetoed (despite the fact that Congress was still in pro forma session), mandates that the next generation of U.S. Navy cruisers (CG-21) projected to be about 14,000 tons, be nuclear powered. It isn't clear that the Navy has a strong objection to this mandate, although its fate, like the rest of the defense funding bill, is unclear.

Israel Is A Cat Country

Eric Goldman has plenty to say about cats and the cultural landscape of modern Israel in his musings about his recent trip there.

Pooties Plus Mental Health

All Cats Have Asperger Syndrome is a serious yet whimsical examination of both of the title's subjects.

A Market Capitalization Tax?

The corporate income tax is largely a tax on the privilege of operating as a publicly held entity. Privately held entities can, and routinely do, avoid all entity level tax. Fewer than 5% of all U.S. corporations (about 150,000) and fewer than 1% of all businesses pay any entity level income taxes after tax credits, and the vast majority of that tax is paid by publicly held corporations. Yet, little effort is made to formally link this privilege to the tax. The corporate tax laws are the same for family businesses that can easily avoid it by paying employee-owners bonuses at year end, as they are for the Fortune 500 companies of the nation.

The corporate income tax, while it generates substantial revenues, is also easy to reduce through tax planning, and involves massive compliance costs for both corporations and the government. It also creates a myriad of distorting economic incentives, some intended, some contradictory and many of which are mere historical curiosities or legislative drafting accidents. For example, current corporate tax laws encourage corporations that do business in the United States to shift as much of their income as possible abroad, to favor debt over equity in a way that increases systemic risk of business failure in the U.S. economy, and subsidizes unprofitable for profit business entities through the net operating loss deduction.

The bright folks at Tax Analysts (via the Tax Profs blog) have proposed a radical, revenue neutral alternative: a quarterly tax of 0.2% of the market capitalization of entities with publicly held securities, both debt and equity (actually a 0.17% quarterly tax would be revenue neutral and 0.2% would represent a modest tax increase).

Determining the amount due would be a trivial exercise that would require only stock and bond price quotations, and SEC filings on outstanding stock and bond issues, the proponents suggest a "drop dead date" but an average valuation for every trading day could serve just as well with more stable results. Under this system, for example, a company with a market capitalization of $100 billion dollars ($50 million in outstanding publicly held stock and $50 million in outstanding publicly held bonds) would owe about $800 million a year in tax.

The notion is that market capitalization is the most accurate available way to determine value and that market value, to the level of rough justice necessary for a workable tax law, reflects long term profitability, and hence reflects ability to pay. Yet, the marginal tax rate on increased profitability would approach zero. Also, this avoids the politically embarassing situation in which corporate giants with an ample ability to pay owe no tax at all, a surprisingly common situation in the current regime.

This is essentially the same methodology we use to tax real estate, which, like publicly traded securities, is succeptible to easy valuation to a rough justice extent, based upon a huge volume of arms length transactions.

The big picture point that they get, that so many analysts in the field do not, is the taxes are primarily about raising money to conduct government, not directing the economy. If we can secure revenue from corporations in a way that is indifferent to the economic organization of their day to day operations, so much the better.

This proposal is also an excellent idea for use in a developing economy where corruption and limited governmental resources make implementation of an elaborate U.S. style corporate income tax impracticable.

The proposal would also eliminate the argument that tax breaks for income from capital gains and dividends are necessary to compensate for corporate entity level "double taxation" of profits on top of shareholder level taxes.

Modern Pirates

Piracy is again a real problem, according to this December 27, 2007 article at Defense Tech:

Piracy has exploded in the waters near Somalia, where this past week United States warships have fired on two pirate skiffs, and are currently in pursuit of a hijacked Japanese-owned vessel. At least four other ships in the region remain under pirate control, and the problem appears to be going global: The International Maritime Bureau is tracking a 14-percent increase in worldwide pirate attacks this year.

And although modern-day pirates enjoy collecting their fare share of booty -- they have a soft spot for communications gear -- they're just as likely to ransom an entire ship. In one particularly sobering case, hijackers killed one crew member of a Taiwan-owned vessel each month until their demands were met.


For those of you who weren't paying attention, the quote above just noted that there are five pirate controlled ships at large at this very moment in the Red Sea, which isn't a very big body of water, notwithstanding the fact that it is teaming with NATO, Egyptian and Saudi Arabian warships.