06 August 2007

Where To Begin?

It is hard to keep up hope for a better day in Africa after reading things like this:

Of the 658 rape victims treated since the end of the war at the capital's main rape clinic, more than half were under 12 and 85 percent were under 18, according to Medecins sans Frontieres, which runs the hospital. Several babies have been treated for rape.

Despite these figures and the line of women that forms outside the rape clinic every morning, only five convicted rapists are serving sentences in Monrovia's central prison. . . .

Liberia has just 22 judges . . . Because Liberia's penal code has been out of print since the 1950s, judges rely on blurred photocopies of the statutes. . . .

Billboards throughout the capital now warn that rape is illegal by showing two stick figures, one forcing itself on the other - the scene crossed out by a large X.

When Liberia, a nation of 3 million, began its descent into civil war in 1989, rape quickly became a weapon. Before killing villagers, the rebels gang-raped girls and took them as "wives" to service multiple commanders. Thousands of rapes went unprosecuted.


Tough new laws were passed at the end of 2005, but cases are still working their way through the system and the system is still broken.

National Guard Casualties

According to recently-retired Brigadier General George Clark, speaking to the Douglas Demomcrats Central Committee meeting in Colorado recently, nearly half of guardsmen deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan end up with problems related to Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder or Traumatic Brain Injury.

The New Democratic Party Coalition

Once upon a time, when I was a young man just starting to pay attention to Congressional politics, we had a de facto three party system in the United States. There were Northern Democrats, Southern Democrats and Republicans. Southern Democrats parted ways with the Northern counterparts and joined Republicans on issues of national defense, civil rights and civil liberties.

This is no longer true. We still have a three party system, but, as this Daily Kos post illustrates, the three parties are now, regular Democrats, Blue Dog Democrats, and Republicans.

The Blue Dogs proudly call themselves conservative Democrats and there are 44 of them in the House out of 231 Democrats (there are 202 Republicans and 2 vacancies). Thus, there are 187 regular Democrats, 44 Blue Dogs and 202 Republicans, plus 2 vacancies. There isn't a formal Blue Dog caucus in the Senate (which has 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, liberal independent Bernie Sanders, and moderate independent Joe Lieberman), but the number of Senators who vote like Blue Dogs is similarly a small part of the entire Democratic Party caucus.

Realignment has turned a lot of Southern Democratic seats into Republican seats, and replaced all but a handful of Rockefeller Republicans with Democrats. It has also left a more clear line between Blue Dogs and the rest of the Republican party (Markos at Kos has repeatly observed accurately that the voting record of non-Blue Dog members of the supposedly moderate Democratic Leadership Council look a lot like non-DLC Democrats). The Blue Dogs are fewer in number than either the DLC or the Southern Democrats who held the moderate reins before them. The Blue Dogs are also not nearly as distinctively Southern in character, although many are from the South. But, they still hold the swing votes on a variety of issues.

The Jurisprudence Of Justice Thomas

A succinct description of originalism a la Justice Thomas:

Despite the vast differences between public education then and public education today, Justice Thomas evidently believes the question of whether students have free-speech rights should be answered by conducting an imaginary séance with 18th- and 19th-century Framers and ratifiers, who should be asked: Do you think public-school students have a constitutional right to free speech while in school? This line of inquiry is about as productive as asking an only child: Imagine you have a sister. Now, does she like cheese? . . . he asks how those alive at the relevant time would have applied that language to a set of facts different than we face today. This elevates the expectations of the ratifiers and Framers over the meaning of the text itself.


One more reason that Democrats need to take a hard line on ideological conservative justices, who seem to be the President's favorite kind, after all, he has specifically said that he wants to appoint Justices like Justice Thomas.

Pandemics Cataloged

A good list of major historical pandemics is found at Non-Prophet.

Wikispecies

Taxonomy is easier and more responsive now that Wikispecies is online. Until this tool was created there was no easy to use compendium of the complete tree of life. There were a few sources out there online with the information, but they were hard to use and had weak user interfaces.

03 August 2007

Patent Reform

Congress is attempting to complete the first major overhaul of the nation's patent law in more than half a century. . . . Pharmaceuticals and biotech companies need exclusive rights to single patents, protecting, for example, a drug resulting from millions of dollars of research. Big technology, whose products often contain hundreds and even thousands of patented parts, is bedeviled by too many bad patents, infringement lawsuits and skyrocketing damages.

Earlier this month, a House and a Senate bill, identical when introduced last April, emerged from their respective judiciary committees -- a major step in this long-running effort. Following committee amendments, the bills are no longer identical, but there is some agreement among all parties that the House bill has made greater progress. . . .

[T]he greatest single obstacle to a patent reform compromise is how to calculate infringement damages, particularly, as in the high-tech world, when the infringing component is only part of a larger and more complex device.

U.S. district courts currently use a flexible 15-factor test . . . big technology . . . . has argued that the standard for calculating damages should be based on the fair share of the patent's contribution to the value of a product, and not on the value of a whole product that has many other components. . . . the House committee amended the damages provision to give judges discretion to decide, based on the facts of the case, whether damages should be apportioned, as technology companies would like, whether they should be based on the value of the entire invention, or by other means. . . .

The second major issue dividing the stakeholders concerns how to challenge the validity of patents. . . . Big technology and the financial services industry . . . are finding themselves in lawsuits in areas in which they never dreamt they would face lawsuits and on patents that seem laughable on their face[.]

This country, unlike others, does not have a post-grant opposition procedure . . . Both congressional bills provide for a post-grant review administrative proceeding for would-be patent challengers. The battle has been over how much time after a patent has issued it should be open to challenge. The bills originally allowed challenges within a set amount of time after the patent issued, but a second "window" for challenges would open when an infringer had reason to believe it had infringed the patent. . . .

The House committee eliminated the "second window" and decided to expand an existing but limited procedure known as the inter-partes re-examination procedure, which allows third parties to challenge a patent on novelty grounds in the PTO. The Senate bill still has the second window and, according to some, a very low threshold for challenges. . . .

All parties seem to have accepted provisions in the reform bills that would bring the United States into harmony with the rest of the world by shifting this country away from awarding patents to those "first to invent" to those who are "first to file." . . .

Under current law, an action can be brought in any district in which the defendant is subject to personal jurisdiction -- in reality, wherever an infringing product is sold. The bills would limit venue to districts where either a party resides or where the defendant has committed the infringement and has a regular place of business.

The venue change is clearly directed at the allegedly plaintiff-patent-popular Eastern District of Texas. . . .

[T]echnology companies want the bills to scale back the availability of treble damages when courts find "willful" or knowing infringement. The current standard is too easily met, those companies contend.

And biotech and pharmaceuticals want the use of a patent holder's "inequitable conduct" curtailed as a ground for holding a patent invalid. Alleged infringers can now argue that the patent is invalid because the holder did not disclose sufficient information about the invention during the patenting process.


From here.

In this fight, the computer guys wear the white hats, and the guys that smell funny are the bad guys. The House Bill looks like it has a real chance, and it would be an improvement.

Bland Election Ahead In Denver In 2007

The year 2007 is an odd numbered year and an election will be held in Colorado on November 6, 2007, although it is likely to be completely or principally conducted by mail this year. Denver's ballot will be entirely by mail, for example.

No county, state or federal races or issues

There will be no elections for federal office, no elections for statewide office, no elections to the state general assembly, no elections for district attorneys, no metropolitian Denver regional transporation district elections, no judicial retention elections and no elections for county office in statutory counties.

While there could be certain kinds of statewide ballot issues on the November 2007 ballot (those pertaining to TABOR limits only), there won't be any this year. I'm not aware of any referenda placed on the ballot by the state legislature for this year, and while it won't be official until August 6, 2007, no one is circulating petitions to put a state level citizen initiative on the November 2007 ballot to the best of my knowledge.

Denver candidate elections in 2007 were held in the spring, and have been completed, barring a vacancy created in any position in the near future. Vacancies elections could be held in November if any Denver vacancies were announced in the near future.

Denver School Board

This leaves Denver voters only one set of candidates to consider -- candidates for the Denver School Board. The Denver Board of Education has seven members, two "at large" and five from school board districts. School board elections are staggered, so only three of those seven seats will be at stake in this November's election.

One is the "at large" seat currently held by school board President Theresa K. Peña. While she has served on the school board for more than four years, I believe (without having consulted the relevant laws), that the fact that she went from a board district seat to an at large seat reset the term limit clock for her, so she is probably able to run again. And, most incumbents able to do so, in fact, do run.

The second is the seat currently held by school board Vice President Bruce L. Hoyt, who represents District 1 in Southeast Denver, he is finishing his first term of office so he is not subject to term limits.I suspect he will run again and win with the advantage that incumbents usually have in these races, mostly for the very reasonable reason that the voters in that jurisdiction liked the incumbent last time and usually haven't changed much in the past four years.

The third is the seat currently held by school board member Rev. Lucia Guzman, who represents District 5 in Northwest Denver, she cannot run again due to term limits, since she has served two terms on the board (although she could run for the "at large" seat if my interpretation is correct).

School board elections are non-partisan, so there are no primaries in school district races, and customarily, Denver political parties don't take any position on non-partisan school board candidates, although it wouldn't be unprecedented for a political party to take a position on a ballot issue proposed by the school board.

I live in District 1, so that means that I will have zero, one, or two races to consider in the fall, depending upon whether the incumbents run again, and whether any challengers step up to the plate. Quite frankly, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see both the "at large" seat and District 1 go uncontested, but in a city as big as this one, with roughly 110,000 people per school board district, and an election held only once every four years in a school district facing a variety of hard choices, it wouldn't be that surprising to see a challenger emerge either.

The deadline to declare that you are a school board candidate in one of these races is August 31, 2007, so we'll know who is running in four weeks.

Denver Ballot Issues

It looks like we will probably get a quite few local ballot issues in November in Denver.

One City and County of Denver issue concerning making marijuana enforcement a low priority is notable, and is probably going to be the only citizen initiative on the ballot this fall.

Denver voters may also have to consider some complicated fiscal issues:

Denver's planned $550 million bond package and a $27 million tax increase for infrastructure will have to be divided into eight questions on the November ballot, raising concern among City Council members that the projects will be pitted against one another. That scenario already had one council member referring to a grouping for cultural projects as expendable "icing" when the plan was presented to City Council Wednesday. The eight separate questions are required by Colorado case law. On top of that, the city's bonding capacity will further complicate the questions. If any of the bond groupings that cost $70 million or more were to fail at the polls, the city's property-tax rate would remain the same as it is now. If all pass, the tax rate will rise to pay for the cost of the bonds. Regardless, if voters approve the one question increasing the tax rate to pay for maintenance of all the proposed new projects, the city's rate will rise.


There may also be some charter amendment issues originating with city council, most of which will probably be sleepers.

Other Local Ballot Issues

The school board might have a bond or tax issue on the ballot this time around. It also isn't out of the realm of possibility that some special district, say Denver Water or the stadium board, could put a funding issue on the November ballot. I haven't heard about any fiscal matters other than Denver's this time around, however.

Deadlines

The final list of the ballot issues we'll face in November should be in place in the next few days, if it isn't already. The ballot must be finalized by September 7, 2007, and ballots start to go out to certain voters three days later. Blue books explaining ballot issues must be mailed by October 5, 2007.

Television News Deconstructed

Is TV news really about facts, or really about sharing emotions?

Via NewMexiKen.

02 August 2007

Big Three A Minority

NewMexiKen notes:

“GM, Ford, Chrysler Combined Have 48% of Market Share.” . . . It’s the first month ever that U.S. automakers have been below 50%.


The source story at the Washington Post notes:

Japanese automakers . . . enjoy lower U.S. labor costs, positive foreign exchange rates and more popular product lines.

Toyota's Lexus brand sold 27,141 in July -- nearly double the sales of Ford's entire European luxury line from Volvo, Jaguar and Land Rover.


Sales were down almost across the board in July, but U.S. automaker's sales fell faster (in part due to decreased interest in low profit rental fleet sales):

GM -22.4% (to 312,623 vehicles)
Ford -20% (to 179,218 vehicles)
Chrysler -8.4% (to 137,728 vehicles)
Toyota -7.3% (to 224,058 vehicles)
Honda -7.1%
Nissan +1.7%

Toyota sold more cars than either Ford or Chrysler. So, Toyota is number two in U.S. auto sales. This is likely to remain the case, as Ford is trying to spin off some of its brands (Jaguar and Land Rover are on the auction block and it is widely rumored that Volvo might follow), while Toyota is not.

More Than Mistakes

[A] recently completed study of the 124 exonerations of death row inmates in America from 1973 to 2007 indicated that 80, or about two-thirds, of their so-called wrongful convictions resulted not from good-faith mistakes or errors but from intentional, willful, malicious prosecutions by criminal justice personnel. (There were four cases in which a determination could not be made one way or another.) . . . When a prosecutor puts a witness on the stand whom he knows to be lying, or fails to turn over evidence favorable to the defense, or when a police officer manufactures or destroys evidence to further the likelihood of a conviction, then it is deceptive to term these conscious violations of the law . . . as merely mistakes or errors.


The New York Times via Think Outside the Cage.

A Case For Copyright Reform

Samuelson, Pamela, "Preliminary Thoughts on Copyright Reform", Utah Law Review, 2007. Here is a case for copyright reform (abstract here):

The Copyright Act of 1976 is far too long, complex, and largely incomprehensible to non-copyright professionals. It is also the work product of pre-computer technology era. This law also lacks normative heft. That is, it does not embody a clear vision about what its normative purposes are.

This article offers the author's preliminary thoughts about why copyright reform is needed, why it will be difficult to undertake, and why notwithstanding these difficulties, it may nonetheless be worth doing. It offers suggestions about how one might go about trimming the statute to a more managemable length, articulating more simply its core normative purposes, and spinning certain situation-specific provisions off into a rulemaking process.

Thirty years after enactment of the '76 Act, with the benefit of considerable experience with computer and other advanced technologies and the rise of amateur creators, it may finally be possible to think through in a more comprehensive way how to adapt copyright to digital networked environments as well as how to maintain its integrity as to existing industry products and services that do not exist outside of the digital realm.


Via The Patry Copyright Blog.

Interesting Personal Jurisdiction Case

A couple in Pennsylvania receives advertisements from a Barbados hotel at their home, and then books a trip including a massage there before they leave. In Barbados, the husband is hurt falling off a massage table due to the negligence of the massage staff.

The couple sues the hotel in Pennsylvania for negligence in Pennsylvania state courts. The hotel removes the case to federal court. The federal trial court dismisses the case for want of personal jurisdiction. And, today, the United States Court of Appeals for the 3rd Circuit, reverses.

The 3rd Circuit holds that the district court has personal jurisdiction because the injuries arose out of duties identical to those imposed by a contract for personal services formed in Pennsylvania, but remands the case to consider a forum non conveniens motion not considered by the trial court because the personal jurisdiction ruling made its resolution unnecessary. How Appealing highlighted the case today.

While this case involved a Barbados hotel, its reasoning would apply to any personal injury arising out of services booked from a U.S. state anywhere in the U.S. or abroad which led to a personal injury, although, as discussed below, the impact on domestic cases is mitigated by venue rules.

The 19 page opinion, moreover, struggles at length with the mushy nature of personal jurisdiction law. There is a circuit split regarding the law on the issue, and the court in its own ruling, is as vague as it can manage to be about the standard in its own circuit while still resolving the question presented to it. The opinion also notes that even if the case is tried in Pennsylvania, that the substantive law of Barbados might be applied. Furthermore, if the case is dismissed on the basis of the forum non conveniens doctrine, an option the reluctant 3rd Circuit suggests might be an appropriate resolution of the case, then the case will likely be appealed again, but on a second appeal the review would likely be for "abuse of discretion" by the trial judge, rather than a "de novo" review of a question of law without deferring to the trial judge's ruling.

If this resort had been in Hawaii rather than Barbados, removal to federal court would have been swiftly followed by a successful motion to change venue to the United States District Court for the District of Hawaii, under 28 United States Code Section 1391. This venue statute provides in a case where there is a U.S. District Court which has jurisdiction and the case does not involve an "alien", a case based upon diversity of citizenship must be brought either in a judicial district where a defendant resides, or in a judicial district where "a substantial part of the events or omissions giving rise to the claim occurred." The procedural stance of the case would be somewhat more complicated than if the case has been brought in Hawaii in the first place, but the end result would probably be the same -- the case would likely have been decided by a Hawaii jury applying Hawaii law before a judge who very likely spent his legal career as a Hawaii lawyer before being appointed to the federal bench.

The desire of the couple to have their case tried in Pennsylvania is not surprising. Of course, it is cheaper for them to litigate in Pennsylvania, and more expensive for the Barbados defendants to bring their witnesses 1,200 miles to the U.S. Court. In Barbados, the substantive law establishing a standard of liability would probably be similar to that in Pennsylvania, with both recognizing some sort of claim for injuries as a result of negligent conduct. But, in Pennsylvania, liability and damages, quite possibly including damages for pain and suffering, will be determined by a Pennsylvania jury, instead of a Barbados judge ruling without a jury, who is probably predisposed to be favorable to the hometown defendant and is unlikely to make a substantial award of pain and suffering damages.

Of course, if the case doesn't settle, and the couple gets a judgment in a Pennsylvania federal court, they will still have to enforce their judgment, which may be a less than straightforward task when the defendant has no office or tangible assets in the United States. Jurisdiction issues may end up being re-litigated when the time comes to enforce any judgment in Barbados, if U.S. assets can't be located. Still, the Barbados company would be at a disadvantage at that point after having litigated the jurisdiction issues in U.S. courts. Indeed, allowing a default judgment to enter in the U.S. and then litigating jurisdiction for the first time when it is time to enforce the judgment might have been a wiser course of action for the hotel, although that approach would have put any U.S. intangible assets of the hotel, like accounts receivable from U.S. tourists, at risk indefinitely.

Did the 3rd Circuit get it right?

In this case, this resolution, particularly if the trial court grants motion to dismiss on forum non conveniens grounds which is affirmed on appeal, certainly will make the case much more expensive for everyone involved to resolve, and the case also creates increased uncertainty on the part of anyone doing business with the United States from abroad. For example, foreign hotels and spas might decide based upon this ruling to require that arrangements beyond hotel reservations can be made only in advance.

It also isn't clear why there wasn't a forum selection clause in the contract between the hotel and the couple, or if there was one, why it wasn't enforced. If a forum selection clause in a contract could resolve this case, one expects that those provisions will soon become the norm, because no casual holiday taker is going to haggle over that piece of fine print in a hotel contract. Once burned, twice shy.

The virtue of the 3rd Circuit decision making the choice of forum in this case a non-jurisdictional issue, is that, in some future case, it might be desirable for the doors to be open to the U.S. courts. For example, maybe a U.S. forum would make more sense if an American was injured in connection with a contractual undertaking in Somolia, whichg has no functioning court system, involving an entity which had U.S. based intangible assets. Whether this is worth the resulting uncertainty is hard to know.

01 August 2007

Secret Defense Spending

The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment has a method based upon public domain documentation of estimating classified defense spending. Their estimate is that there is $14.4 billion in procurement funding and $17.5 billion in R&D funding which is classified.

By their estimates, $13.9 billion of classified procurement and $11.3 billion of classfied R&D is Air Force (96.5% of black procurement and 79.9% of the total estimated black budget), and $0.5 billion of classified procurement and $3.7 of classfied R&D is allocated to other defense department agencies (like DARPA and the Defense intelligence agencies). No classified procurement is allocated to the Army or Navy, while there is $2.2 billion for Navy R&D, and $0.2 billion for Army R&D.

What sort of stuff is it likely to be?

Aviation Week reports the programs include...

...a growing ability to invade sensors, create false targets, take over networks, plant misleading information and mine computer data, even from manned or unmanned aircraft flying close to the emitter of interest. A new generation of stealth—that will be invulnerable to low- as well as high-frequency radar—is being developed.

A lot of money has gone into technologies to find, disarm, jam or preempt the construction, planting and detonation of improvised explosive devices. High-power microwave devices are being designed to disable electronics, erase or scramble computer memories, or shut down electrical activity in road vehicles, aircraft in flight or satellites in orbit.


Another source speculates:

The concentration of classified funding in the Air Force's budget is the result of two factors . . . . First, the Air Force acquisition budget contributes funds to a number of intelligence agencies, including the Central Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency and National Reconnaissance Office. Second, the Air Force is responsible for most command, control, communications and intelligence functions.


Jane's has a nice historical overview. The article speculated seven and a half years ago that:

One likely strategic goal of current SAPs is the pursuit of what one senior engineer calls "the next stealth" - breakthrough technologies that provide a significant military advantage. Examples could include high-speed technology - permitting reconnaissance and strike aircraft to cruise above M4­5 - and visual and acoustic stealth measures, which could re-open the airspace below 15,000ft (4,600m) to manned and unmanned aircraft.

The existence of high-supersonic aircraft projects has been inferred from sighting reports, the repeated, unexplained sonic booms over the US and elsewhere, the abrupt retirement of the SR-71 and from the focus of white-world programs, such as NASP and follow-on research efforts such as the USAF's HyTech program. The latter have consistently been aimed at gathering data on speeds in the true hypersonic realm - well above M6, where subsonic-combustion ramjets give way to supersonic-combustion ramjets (scramjets) - implying that speeds from M3 to M6 present no major unsolved challenges.

One researcher in high-speed technology has confirmed to IDR that he has seen what appear to be photographs of an unidentified high-speed aircraft, obtained by a US publication. In a recent sighting at Area 51, a group of observers claim to have seen a highly blended slender-delta aircraft which closely resembles the aircraft seen over the North Sea in August 1999. Visual stealth measures were part of the original Have Blue program, and one prototype was to have been fitted with a counter-illumination system to reduce its detectability against a brightly lit sky. However, both prototypes were lost before either could be fitted with such a system. More recent work has focused on electrochromic materials - flat panels which can change color or tint when subjected to an electrical charge - and Lockheed Martin Skunk Works is known to have co-operated with the DoE's Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory on such materials.


Speculation about high speed aircraft has continued (and was discussed critically at this blog within the past year). My guess would be that it isn't the program that is in the production phase right now, and indeed, might be something used as a cover to generate speculation and take attention away from the real programs being produced.

I'd place more stock on a footnote in a 2004 Congressional press release that "significant funding that is also included in the classified portion of the defense budget for Boeing-related work on programs such as the Future Imagery Architecture (FIA)." Raytheon also touted classified intelligence contracts in 2004 and in 2007. A Spring 2007 list of codenames can be found here. The abrupt cancellation of a B-52 based electronic warfare program without a replacement in 2005 is also notable and could signal a covert replacement.

Second generation stealth could be very expensive, as could new spy planes (or spy satellites) or large drones. The estimated Air Force classified procurement (meaning buying stuff to actually use) numbers are high enough for 7 B-2 bombers or 63 F-22s in a single year, for example. The numbers are big enough to suggest that the Air Force has, at least, one active production line spitting out a non-prototype black aircraft model, and quite possibly several.

My guess is that the Navy's classified budget includes a big national missile defense component, and that the Army's piece is mostly small drones and counter-IED measures.

The defense agencies part is hardest to guess.

UPDATE: Nix the large drone theory. The plan to fly robot aircraft off aircraft carriers (the X-47) is public and has been awarded in a public bid (projected finish date in the year 2013). Presumably, the Air Force's parallel program (the X-45) will also be public. Also, the fact that they are only this far along in drone development on the Navy side argues against the existence a far more sophisticated black drone program.

Padilla Trial Likely Over Next Week

The trial of Jose Padilla and his two co-defendants will likely be over next week, with the jury then left to deliberate as long as necessary. Padilla will call no witnesses of his own and apparently doesn't plan to testify on his own behalf. His co-defendants have called a number of witnesses.

This leaves the defense to argue in closing argument that the case was not proved beyond a reasonable doubt. This is an easier task for Padilla than for most defendants, as the evidence against him is thin, and he benefits in part from being largely unmentioned in a trial that has revolved in both the prosecution and defense cases against the other people before the jury. By not testifying or offering evidence, he also avoids opening the door to additional evidence that could support a cas against him. But, not explaining yourself always carries risk. I'm not sure I'd be gutsy enough to take that approach.

Jury deliberations could be extended, given the length of the trial.

31 July 2007

Unsurprising CSAP Results

The CSAP, like all tests, basically measures academic ability. Unsuprisingly, several years of doing basically the same thing to teach our kids academics is not making them any more or less academically able than last year's crop of kids. As the Denver Post notes: "Ritter called the changes 'statistically insignificant.'"

Equally unsurprising is the "discovery" that kids who did poorly once on the CSAPs tend to continue to do so, while kids who do well likewise tend to continue to do well.

For the first time, the Department of Education provided data that showed how students have performed over time, from 2005 to 2007. Those statistics show most students failed to progress as they moved through grades.

"As you come to us, three years into it, there you are," said Jo O'Brien, head of the state Department of Education's Office of Learning and Results.


The Rocky was slightly more clear in explaining the data, so I'll quote them:

Two-thirds of the third-graders who scored "unsatisfactory" — the lowest level — in reading in 2005 are still at that level, the data show. And more than 20 percent of students who were partially proficient — the step just above unsatisfactory — in 2005 slipped down to unsatisfactory this year.

Only 6 percent of the unsatisfactory students made it to "proficient," the goal under the federal No Child Left Behind Act. That's just 227 kids out of 3,810 unsatisfactory third-graders in 2005.

In sixth-grade math, 84 percent of the unsatisfactory students in 2005 are still at that level. . . .

Anglo and Asian kids were more likely to move up than Hispanic, black or Indian students. Results did not vary significantly by the size of the district. . . .

Only 12.9 percent of third graders slipped from advanced or proficient to a failing level.

In the entire state, only 16 kids went from advanced to unsatisfactory. Not a single child went the other way, from unsatisfactory to advanced.


And, again, unsurprisingly, there is, once again, a large and persistent achievement gap between whites and Asians on one hand, and blacks and Latinos on the other, and also between students who do and do not qualify for free or reduced price lunches. The slight gender gaps with boys doing a bit better in math and science, while girls do a bit better in reading is also long standing.

In short, the CSAPs aren't telling us anything we didn't already know. They have limited use as a tracking device, if you believe that tracking has educational value. But, they tell us very little about the schools in question other than their relative demographics.

I'm agnostic over whether a dramatic change in educational approaches could change CSAP results dramatically, but I'm pretty sure that modest changes will leave us with about the same results, year after year.

Caffeine and Exercise Stops Skin Cancer In Mice

It's good to be a mouse. Caffeine and exercise stopped skin cancer in lab mice.

Then again, it isn't always good to be a mouse. For example, it might be rather unpleasant to be a custom bred schizophrenic mouse.

Trouble In The GOP Tent

You know the GOP is in trouble when a PAC dedicated to "the election to Congress of men and women who hold conservative beliefs on both moral and economic issues" says:

Election eve of 2008 is at best an on-coming train wreck for Republicans in the Senate. Most of the seats up for reelection will be Republican seats. The Democrats seem to be getting stronger and more organized at a time when the Republicans in the Senate seem to have a death wish. The base of the Republican party is becoming increasingly distressed and unsupportive[.]


The PAC also doesn't like how the GOP Presidential nomination race is going stating that "former Mayor Rudy Giuliani who holds the same social positions as do Clinton and Obama. In some areas Giuliani is more liberal than Clinton[.]"

WTF Drug Crime Miscarriage Of Justice

This guy was sentenced to 25 years in prison for possession of prescription drugs for which he had a prescription. Two years later, he's out of prison.

Mark O'Hara left jail without handcuffs Wednesday, two years after he went to prison and one week since an appeals court ordered him a new trial.

He was serving a 25-year sentence for having 58 Vicodin pills in his bread truck. Jurors weren't told that it is legal to possess the drug with a prescription, which he had. . . .

[T]he 2nd District Court of Appeal ruling about his case . . . faulted prosecutors' claims that Florida statutes do not allow a "prescription defense" in drug trafficking cases. Using words like "absurd" and "ridiculous," three appellate judges said the state's position would make patients with valid prescriptions criminals as soon as they left the drugstore.


I can't imagine what kind of train wreck caused this case. Apparently, the trial judge was too stupid to realize that the legal argument of the prosecution was full of it.

Of course, as usual, the prosecutors didn't care in the least about justice in this case or a sensible interpetation of the statutes. They just tried to get a conviction. The fact that the state of Florida tried to defend this conviction on appeal is equally appalling, and a disgrace to that state's government.

Another detail:

He sold two condos, his car and his bread business to pay for the appeal. But the state took the proceeds, according to family friend Eric Mastro, to pay toward the $500,000 fine that came with his conviction.


This isn't the only case of its kind in Florida (also here) either:

Richard Paey, a Pasco man who suffers debilitating back pain from an auto accident and botched surgery, is also serving 25 years for possessing larger quantities of prescription pain killers.


Hat Tip to Thinking Outside the Cage.

Federal Prisoners By Sentence Imposed

These Bureau of Prisons numbers show overall, the length of the sentences that people currently in federal prison were sentenced to serve (as of a 2007 updated):

Less than 1 year: 3,227 (1.8%)
1-3 years: 23,096 (12.6%)
3-5 years: 28,209 (15.4%)
5-10 years: 54,459 (29.7%)
10-15 years: 34,937 (19.1%)
15-20 years: 15,953 (8.7%)
More than 20 years: 17,503 (9.6%)
Life: 5,708 (3.1%)
Death: 48

The principle offense of conviction is as follows:

Drug Offenses: 98,039 (53.6 %)
Weapons, Explosives, Arson: 26,279 (14.4 %)
Immigration: 19,464 (10.6 %)
Robbery: 9,578 (5.2 %)
Burglary, Larceny, Property Offenses: 6,903 (3.8 %)
Extortion, Fraud, Bribery: 7,980 (4.4 %)
Homicide, Aggravated Assault, and Kidnapping Offenses: 5,587 (3.1 %)
Miscellaneous: 2,157 (1.2 %)
Sex Offenses: 4,585 (2.5 %)
Banking and Insurance, Counterfeit, Embezzlement: 1,010 (0.6 %)
Courts or Corrections: 757 (0.4 %)
Continuing Criminal Enterprise: 569 (0.3 %)
National Security: 99 (0.1 %)

This mix, is, of course, very different from the mix in state prisons, as the federal criminal justice system focuses on drug, immigration and white collar crime cases.

A quick hit analysis here, shows that federal sentencing is broken. About 34% are first time, non-violent offenders, with drug cases involving people with minimal criminal records making up a big part of that number.