Election Results Nine Days Later (Also Puerto Rican Politics)

Now that the dust has settled, we can make pretty good predictions of the outcomes even through 9 House seats, 1 Senate seat, and 2 Governorships haven't been officially called yet. The Blue tsunami  was close to maximal within the realm of what was reasonably possible, although a handful of addition seats were close enough that they could have flipped with a one or two percentage point stronger blue shift.

It is looking like there will be 56 Democrats in the U.S. Senate (44 Republicans), and 260 Democrats in the U.S. House which is 59.8% (175 Republicans for a 85 seat excess of Democrats over Republicans when the most optimistic predictions pre-election had been about a 50 seat margin). These are not, however, supermajorities or even filibuster-proof majorities. But they do give the Democrats considerable room to pass party favored bills even with quite a few dissenters. Nine Senate seats were flipped by Democrats (and none by Republicans). Forty-nine house seats were flipped by Democrats and three were flipped by Republicans (one in Northern Maine, one in Texas, and one in Tennessee). 34 Senate Democrats and 31 Senate Republicans weren't up for re-election this year.

There will be 30 Democratic Governors, which is 60% (20 Republicans) (in addition, the District of Columbia's local government, which functions as a consolidated state and municipal government, is controlled by Democrats) that are home to about 75% of the U.S. population. Democrats flipped seven Governorships. Six Democratic Governors and eight Republican weren't up for re-election this year.

Democrats also made great gains in many state legislative races, and for other statewide offices, like state attorneys' general, state secretaries of state, state school boards, and  state appellate court seats, in 2026. They gains trifectas in many states, gains supermajorities in Colorado and perhaps elsewhere, and broke GOP trifectas in many states. This slightly less up to date on federal and Governor race list summarizes some of these gains:

Democrats, on average, outperformed their 2024 results by about 13 percentage points, although the magnitude of this edge varied from race to race.

Partisan Politics In Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico, which holds Commonwealth elections only once every four years and did not hold one in 2026, by the way, is controlled by the center-right, pro-statehood New Progressive Party (PNP) has a trifecta with clean majorities in both houses of the Commonwealth legislature (19 seats in the Commonwealth Senate and 36 seats in the Commonwealth House), 37 municipal government majorities and 39% of the popular vote. 

The main opposition party, the center-left, pro-commonwealth status Popular Democratic Party (PPN) has 34% of the popular vote, the non-voting Puerto Rico delegate to Congress, 5 Commonwealth Senate and 13 Commonwealth House seats, 41 municipal government majorities, and a minority of Puerto Rican Supreme Court seats including the Chief Justice. Some PNP members (including the Governor) are Republicans, and some are Democrats (which make up conservative and liberal factions within the centrist party). Member of the PPN generally favor the Democrats.

There are also three minor political parties. 

The Democratic Socialist Puerto Rican Independence Party (PIP) with 6% of the popular vote two Commonwealth Senate and three Commonwealth House seats (but holds no municipal majorities). 

The conservative Christian Democratic populist leaning Political Dignity (PD) formed in the year 2019, with 6% of the popular vote and one seat in the Commonwealth House and one in the Commonwealth Senate and a majority in one municipality's government. 

The left wing progressive Movimiento Victoria Ciudadana (MVC) which holds about 12% of the popular vote, while advocating for a constitutional assembly and running on an anti-colonial platform, currently holds no elected offices in the Commonwealth government (having lost its seats in the 2024 election) and has no municipal government majorities. 

There is also one unaffiliated independent in the Commonwealth Senate (who holds an "at large" seat). She is Eliezer Molina Pérez and was elected first in 2024. She has been the subject of an ethics complaint from a medium sized agricultural company, which seems to amount to a real estate and easement dispute. But, given the large PNP majority in the Commonwealth Senate, she is basically irrelevant politically.

Saving Democracy: What's Worked, What Hasn't

Lots of institutions in our constitution (written and unwritten) that were supposed to protect democracy have failed us over the last few years:

* The impeachment power

* The emoluments clause

* The 14th Amendment insurrection clause

* The 25th Amendment (relating to Presidential disablity)

* The criminal justice system (to punish bad actors before they gain political power)

* The Voting Rights Act

* The War Powers Act

* Contempt of court powers

* Independent agencies (including the U.S. Postal Service and most regulatory agencies)

* The Civil Service system

* The "Deep State"

* International treaties and international law

* The U.S. Supreme Court (which is the reason most of the other tools above didn't work, our system is too dependent upon it working well)

* Congress

* The 2nd Amendment (and armed resistance more generally)

* Political and legal norms

* Shame and civility norms

* Big law firms

Some American institutions (and countries) have actively hurt democracy in the United States, or put it in peril:

* The pardon power

* Presidential immunity from criminal prosecutions (newly invented)

* The limited scope of Bivens actions for illegal actions by federal officials compared to 42 U.S.C. § 1983 which creates a private civil action (however imperfect) for actions violating federal rights by state and local officials

* Standing law

* The Unitary Executive theory

* Far right legal scholars and far right judges (especially federal judges)

* The Federalist Society

* The Heritage Foundation and Project 2025

* Law by executive order

* Trump's Department of Justice

* The Insurrection Act

* ICE and its collaborators

* Private prisons and detention centers

* Federal anti-terrorism laws

* The demise of the legislative veto (old but material)

* Archaic legislature centered election administration laws

* The oil and gas industry

* The coal industry

* Cryptocurrencies

* Flock (the surveillance network company)

* AI

* The tech industry

* The billionaire class and its capacity to corrupt elected officials (especially Elon Musk)

* Child sex traffickers and lenient treatment of sex offenders

* Most Republicans in state and local government

* DINOs (Democrats in name only) in the U.S. Senate

* White Evangelical Christians

* Ecuador 

* Argentina

* Russia

* Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE

Other institutions have been (sometimes surprisingly) fairly effective at defending democracy in the United States:

* Federalism (both state governments and local governments)

* State and local district attorneys and attorneys' general

* Immigration lawyers (who have been remarkably competent)

* Native American tribes

* Federal grand juries.

* Birthright citizenship

* The one man, one vote rule of constitutional law

* The U.S. District Courts

* The U.S. Courts of Appeal

* Republican election administration officials who weren't corrupt

* State attorney regulation systems

* The financial markets

* The news media

* Late night comedy shows

* The entertainment industry (with a small number of notable exceptions)

* Civic organizations devoted to protecting legal rights and helping people

* Protests and protesters

* Tow truck drivers

* K-12 school administrators, teachers, and bus drivers

* Strong mutually supportive local communities and grass roots activists, especially in places like Minneapolis, Los Angeles, and Portland, Oregon.

* The Catholic church (mostly) and the Pope (an American)

* Mail order abortion pills

* Hospitals

* Ukraine (not least, by destroying Russian data centers)

* Iran (despite itself, by winning victories in its war with the U.S. that drove up gas prices that soured MAGA on the GOP)

* Greenland and Denmark

* The British monarchy (especially for its Epstein class enforcement)

* Pre-MAGA Republican politicians who don't need to be re-elected

Other institutions, tools, and countries, which might have been expected to play stronger roles for good or ill, but ended up being more or less neutral bystanders or not very important include:

* The national guard (which attempts were made to use for ill, but which weren't very successful)

* The U.S. military

* Congressional Democrats (the minority party in both houses of Congress)

* Congressional Republicans (the majority party in both houses of Congress but with thin majorities and lots of infighting)

* Gerrymandering

* Political assassinations and political violence

* Most big businesses

* The Fed

* Unions

* Colleges and universities

* Black churches

* China

* India

Countries that have been mostly good role models (often by resisting or overthrowing authoritarian regimes), while having only modest direct influence on the U.S.:

* South Korea

* Indonesia

* Bangladesh

* Nepal

* Poland

* Serbia

* Hungary

* Spain

* France

* Ireland

* Brazil

* Paraguay

* Mexico

* Canada

* NATO

Institutions that have simultaneously done great good (or prevented great harm) and have done great harm:

* The Internet

* The SpaceX satellite telephone network

* Social media

* Local churches

* Incompetent Trump appointees