Showing posts with label Congress. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Congress. Show all posts

28 August 2026

The Executive-Judiciary Interface In Undermining The Rule Of Law

One of the most distinctive features of Trump 2.0 has been the breakdown of the rule of law. The administration has routinely ignored the law and settled interpretation of existing law in a wide variety of domains.

It has enacted illegal tariffs, it has denied due process to immigrants, it has deported immigrants to countries to which they have no connection, it has illegally impounded Congressionally appropriated funds, it has conducted the Iran war without complying with the war powers act, it has illegally and in violation of international law bombed suspected drug boats in the Caribbean and the Pacific and killed survivors of its attacks, it has unlawfully meddled in state election processes, it has fired government officials whom Congressionally enacted statutes don't allow it to fire, it has pardoned January 6 insurrectionists, it has corruptly allowed officials to benefit personally in monetary terms from their offices, it has openly admitted to denying FEMA disaster relief based upon how states have voted in recent elections, it has brought sham criminal prosecutions of political opponents, and so on.

Trump 1.0 was odious, incompetent, dishonest, and violated some political norms and legal rules, but shows much less disregard for the rule of law and for well-established political and legal norms.

What changed? How will that affect future administrations?

A lot of the change can be fairly attributed to the courts, especially lower court judges appointed by Trump and the U.S. Supreme Court, which attained a conservative majority and an ultra-conservative plurality under Trump 1.0, consistently letting Trump circumvent rulings against him personally, and against his administration, made by lower courts and non-Trump appointed judges (including many judges appointed by Republican Presidents in prior administrations).

The U.S. Supreme Court's decisions to grant Trump expansively Presidential immunity from criminal liability for his official or arguably official acts (even if they are clearly ultra vires), and to interpret the insurrection clause out of the 14th Amendment, were some of the earliest and most damaging of its steps down this path.

Yes, the U.S. Supreme Court hasn't given Trump a complete blank check in Trump 2.0 to be a dictator, largely because the non-ultra conservative justices and the liberal justices on the Court has sometimes formed coalitions to block the ultra-conservative agenda. But this hasn't been consistent enough to discourage mischief in the executive branch.

Of course, the Republican controlled Congress also hasn't pro-actively intervened, but as some justices on the Supreme Court such as Gorsuch are starting to acknowledge, while Congress has significant power to deny funds to the President, Congress has very little capacity to pro-actively contradict or restrain a President inclined to ignore it.

The relative irrelevance of Congress has also been illustrated by Trump 2.0's heavy reliance on executive orders to act, rather than Congressional legislation, despite the fact that Republicans hold majorities in both the House and the Senate, and despite the fact that past precedents have pretty well established that the filibuster in the Senate is a voluntary restraint that the Republican Senate majority has afforded to the minority, and not a legally binding barrier to action, and despite the tight hold that Trump has acquired over the Republican party, effectively turning it into a MAGA party.

So, the existence of a GOP trifecta has, in practice, been less important to the disappearance of the rule of law than judicial and especially U.S. Supreme Court, connivance in facilitating unilateral illegal actions by President Trump (in a highly partisan fashion that it did not afford to President Biden).

Indeed, if anything, the Republican majorities in Congress have been more even handed in protecting the limited rights of the minority Democrats in Congress on a non-partisan basis, than SCOTUS has been in its rulings, many of which simply can't be explained by anything but partisan bias.

18 March 2026

A Glimmer Of Hope

 The status quo is a one vote Republican majority, but Trump screwed it up for the GOP.


17 November 2025

Structural Problems With The Living Constitution

As interpreted the U.S. Constitution has various problems:

* The insurrection clause was gutted by making it not self-executing.

* Presidential immunity from crimes was a horrible mistake.

* No one has standing to pursue too many violations of the law, such as the emoluments clause, the bar on increasing Congressional compensation, some kinds of religious establishment (e.g. not enforcement the ban on political action by religious groups).

* The pardon power is too easily abused.

* Limiting campaign finance by corporations in a partisan neutral way is prohibited (although Citizens United is less of a problem than it is given credit for being IMHO). 

* Term limits for Congress would be good.

* The filibusters has done more harm than good.

* Gerrymandering is an intractable problem and the first past the post system also leads to spoiler effects and a two party system instead of a multiparty system.

* Grounds for impeachment are too feeble and impeachment is too hard to accomplish for genuine crimes.

* The veto power is too strong, undermining Congress.

* The electoral college has proven to be a bad idea.

* The Senate is too distorting.

* The Second Amendment is a bad idea.

* Treaties are too often found to be not self-executing.

* Treaties are not subordinate to domestic laws.

* Given Congress control over election disputes in their own houses was a bad idea. Their roster should be out of their control.

* The unitary executive theory is incredibly harmful and should be actively overruled. The ban on legislative vetos is less of a big deal but also deeply problematic.

* The 25th Amendment on Presidential disability was a good idea, but was executed poorly.

* It should not be possible to be President as your first political position. Prior statewide office, a cabinet post, a top generalship, or service in Congress should be required first.

* The franchise should be affirmatively defined.

14 October 2025

The Shutdown


We are at 14 days of the shutdown (the third time that the government has shut down while Trump was President, including the longest shutdown ever). On Friday, it will surpass the 2013 shutdown during the Obama administration. A week from tomorrow, it will surpass the 1995 shutdown from the Clinton Administration. And, there is no end in sight.

The Democrats are holding out of restoring Medicaid cuts and Affordable Care Act tax subsidy cuts (not healthcare for illegal immigrants or rampant trans surgery as false GOP talking points suggest), which were including the the Trump budget to pay for tax cuts for the rich.

The fact that the Republicans haven't gone nuclear to end the shutdown shows that GOP support for those cuts in the Senate is tepid.

The foreseeable Affordable Care Act tax subsidy cuts were an important reason that I decided that I needed to seek employment with an employer who provided a group healthcare plan, rather than continuing to be self-employed.

03 October 2025

Not All Hope Is Lost (Yet)!

Keep fighting!

Every week (there are rare days of respite) there is news so bad that I vacillate between outrage and despair over the future of our country.

On the other hand, while we have plummeted into a less free semi-democracy, and plenty of irrevocable damage has been done, we aren't yet beyond a point of no return.

The government shutdown demonstrates that Congress can do something. And, with the "nuclear option" well-established in the U.S. Senate now, the fact that the filibuster hasn't be abrogated to end the shutdown means that there is at least some tacit dissatisfaction with the administration among some Republicans in Congress, even if they are too cowardly to translate that into a roll call vote against the President.

While SCOTUS has frequently shut down lower court checks on Trump's assault on the rule of law, the lower federal courts and litigation of blue states has slowed the process down and put serious friction in the way of his bid to become a dictator.

Attempted military occupations of L.A., D.C., Chicago, and Portland (OR), have had far less shock and awe that Trump hoped. His birthday parade flopped and his rally of generals and admirals likewise demonstrated that while the military may reluctantly obey their commander in chief, that he does not have firm control of, or the loyal and enthusiastic support of, the military.

Trump's aggressive secret police style ICE tactics have undermined public backing for his immigration policies, which were a key factor in getting him and the Republicans in Congress who only have a razor thin majority as it is in the House and in the Senate, elected.

Now that the rich have gotten their tax breaks, they don't need him nearly so badly any more, and are shifting to worrying about whether his bad economic policies will deny them any profits to evade taxes on at all.

We are thirteen months away from the midterm elections, at a time when Trump's popularity has plummeted to record lows and where Democrats are vastly over performing in special vacancy elections. GOP gerrymanders are getting a response from Blue state counter-gerrymanders. And, the cost the GOP risks when it grasps for more Republican districts is that those districts may become less safe and flip as public opinion turns against Trump (primarily among disappointed Republicans and independents who voted for Trump).

It is dim, but there is still some light at the end of the tunnel.

05 September 2025

The Complicated Story Of MAGA Politics

The modern Democratic party operates to a great extent like politics is supposed to work in Civics 101, and follow on political theory says that it is supposed to. It has found policies, that its leaders believe are good ones for the nation, that can unite a diverse big tent coalition. Democrats believe that government can be a force for good and want to use it the implement policies that make the world a better place. They go to great lengths to demonstrate with evidence that their policies do indeed do so. They aren't saints, but they also view stupidity, bad character, and malice in their leaders negatively and are generally happy to cast out leaders who demonstrate those traits.

The Republican party, in living history, was a pretty similar organization and movement that assembled a different bundle of policies to unite a different, smaller tent coalition.

But, that Republican party is almost gone and rapidly dissolving, even though most of its top leaders got their political start in that party.

The MAGA Republican party and movement, in contrast, is something else entirely. It absolutely still has its roots in the pre-FDR solid south Democratic party, in the Dixiecrats, and in the post-Southern strategy anti-civil rights Republican party. But unlike the Republican party that preceded it, it doesn't fit the Civics 101 model.

MAGA Republicans don't accept a lot of the bipartisan consensus about many aspects of policy making and governing that preceded it. It is isolationist. It is anti-trade, anti-immigration, anti-NATO, and unconcerned about alliances with foreign dictators. It has no respect for expertise. It doesn't think that government does anything good (and is oblivious to the benefits that its members receive from government), so it isn't troubled by having the government run by incompetent fools. It has strong authoritarian leanings, no commitment to democratic ideals, and little concern for the rule of law. It sees power as a tool to utilize to fight culture wars and its political opponents, rather than as a means to advance the greater good

Republican political leaders know perfectly well that most of President Trump's executive branch appointees, like RFK, Jr., are incompetent idiots whose only redeeming quality is their momentary personal loyalty to Trump. Most of them are also well aware that many of the policies that Trump is pushing for are objectively bad ones.

Then why do these Republican leaders back Trump anyway?

They can read the room. They know that they face mafia style backlash from Trump if they cross him. They also know that their not terribly bright constituents in the MAGA base firmly support Trump (or at least have until very recently within Trump's second term when they've discovered personally, the hard way, how bad his policies really are) seeing any deviation from Trump's agenda as a betray of Trump's MAGA base including them. The MAGA base also sincerely believe in a lot of the misguided elements of Trump's agenda because unlike most Republican leaders, they don't know any better.

Billionaires and the political representatives of many big businesses also know personally well that Trump is a horrible person who supports mostly bad policies who is basically trying to destroy the federal government from the inside. But, for them, the immense tax cuts that Trump has delivered to them, and the dismantling of federal laws and regulations that cost them money have seemed worth it to them so far.

The conservative leaning members of the college educated upper middle class, who used to work in think tanks formulating conservative policies that they thought furthered the national interest on a basis similar to that of their liberal peers, who served as senior civil servants, and served as professionals in roles that either supported conservative economic and religious interests, or were at least apolitical, meanwhile, have abandoned the Grand Old Party in droves, some to be unaffiliated politically, some to be libertarians, and some to become "moderate" and "neo-liberal" Democrats. Fools loyal to MAGA and Trump's cult of personality, and powerful hypocrites, have rushed in to fill the vacuum that they upper middle class conservatives left behind.

The agenda of Trump and his MAGA cult of personality isn't sustainable. But it wasn't really meant to be. The objective of MAGA is to burn it all down, and to entrench far right cultural dominance and political power now, knowing that in the long run, the democratic process and respect for the rule of law and settled political norms, run fairly, will undermine those objectives.

Destruction can be accomplished more quickly than building something that works. So, it doesn't have to last long. And, if the MAGA base comes to realize that the face eating leopard they supported ate their faces once the damage done is irrevocable, that's their tough luck in the eyes of the billionaires and far-right cranks who actually benefit from its agenda. By then, if the MAGA agenda is successful, they will have dug the United States (and even the larger world) into a hole that will be very hard to get out of again.

The system struggles to stop them. Trump has installed enough people loyal to him that share his far from the mainstream agenda in key institutions like the U.S. Supreme Court, the military, and senior government offices that he wasn't supposed to be able to oust and oust, and key policies that he wasn't supposed to have the legal right to control, that the systems and people designed to stop him aren't doing their jobs. The system wasn't designed to to stop a President who had no respect for his oath of office, no commitment to the good of the nation, no respect for the rule of law, and immense political power arising from a base brainwashed by decades of lies from clergy, Republican political leaders, and cynically manipulative conservative mass media outlets that jettisoned their journalist ethics long ago.

Of course, the willingness of the MAGA base to be manipulated and accept these lies didn't come from nowhere. It isn't that information that reveals that these are lies isn't available. It isn't that members of the MAGA base unanimously agree that Trump has good character.

They are motivated to accept a false worldview because the last half century of American progress has left them behind and greatly diminished their socio-economic status in relative terms. They are willing to take the gamble of destroying the system because of they feel that it has done nothing for them, and that they have no prospects of improving their lot within it.

Most of them made a bad bet. Trump's agenda will leave them worse off and reveal to them that they actually did have something to lose in the system that they are trying to destroy. The policies that they thought were the problem aren't the source of their dismay. Their future prospects within the system that they support destroying were better than they believed them to be. But, now that they've made that bet, a psychological unwillingness to admit that they've been duped and made a mistake, and the fact that much of the damage to both the system and the political process has already been done, makes remedying their mistake difficult.

The situation could still be turned around: If enough of the MAGA base is disillusioned fast enough. If enough old guard Republicans and conservative judges who are hypocrites wake up to the fact that the end game isn't a good one before it is too late. If Trump dies or implodes (which is a bet the left is trying to make by pushing the Epstein files issue) and no successor to Trump as the leader of the MAGA movement arises. 

But if it is turned around, the most likely failure mode for MAGA will be a dramatic collapse of the entire political movement. It will look like an economic bubble popping. It will look like the sudden death of the Whig party in favor of the new Republican party shortly before the Civil War. It will look like the collapse of Naziism at the end of World War II, or the collapse of the Soviet Union. It will look like the post-Herbert Hoover Republican Party of the 1930s. It might even look like the French Revolution with guillotines and all.

There isn't much room for a middle ground business as usual alternation of power at the margins at this point.

27 August 2025

A Non-Constitutional Revolution

The Founders in their ignorance, made the U.S. Constitution extremely hard to amend. This post is a quick recap of some of the more transformative way our constitutional and political order could be remade without constitutional amendments.

Disposition Of U.S. Territory Outside U.S. States

* Admit the District of Columbia, which has a population of roughly 679,000, as a U.S. state (once this was done, repealing the 23rd amendment to the U.S. Constitution that gives the District of Columbia three electoral votes would be easily passed).

* Require Puerto Rico, which has a population of roughly 3.2 million, to choose between independence and becoming a U.S. state. Deprived of an option to continue its current Commonwealth status, it would choose statehood.

* Grant statehood to the U.S. Virgin Islands, which has a population of approximately 104,000.

* Return the Guantanamo Naval Base to Cuba.

* Admit Guam and the Northern Mariana Island as a single new U.S. state (they are basically contiguous) with a population of approximately 221,000.

* Transfer American Samoa with a population of 44,000 to the adjacent sovereign country of Samoa, if it will accept it. Anyone dissatisfied with this could migrate to the United States and retain their citizenship.

* Collectively, this would mean that there would be 108 seats in the U.S. Senate (excluding the U.S. Vice-President's role as a tie breaker) and that there are no permanently inhabited U.S. territories that are not within U.S. states.

Congress

* Expand the U.S. House from 435 seats plus six non-voting delegates to a fixed 991 seats with no non-voting delegates. This would mean that there would be roughly 340,000 people per average seat in the U.S. House of Representatives (compared to a current average of about 790,000 people per seat), so only the Virgin Islands would have more house seats than the number it would be entitled to without a minimum of one seat per state rule, and even then, only by about a factor of three less than the average. This would also increase the size of the Electoral College to 999 electors (with the four new U.S. states), would greatly reducing the risk of a tie vote in the Electoral College (since it is an odd number), and would roughly cut in half the benefit that small states have relative to large states in the Electoral College. The number of U.S. House seats would not be changed if a state were allowed to split into more than one state or was merged with another state.

* Enact a statute requiring U.S. states with more than one seat in the U.S. House of Representatives to elect those seats in a party list proportional representation system (with each party's list determined in primary elections held in advance of the election). States with 50 seats or more would be required divide themselves into two or more regions with a number of seats proportional to the region's population of at least 20 seats and not more than 50 seats each. Currently, those states would be California (98 seats) with 2 to 4 regions, Texas (90 seats) with 2 to 4 regions, Florida (67 seats) with 2 to 3 regions, and New York (57 seats) with 2 regions. Smaller population states would be "at large". This would end gerrymandering of all kinds and would make the federal government a multi-party democracy. Doing this for Congressional delegations on a state by state level rather than nationally, would eliminate the need for a constitutional amendment, would de facto create a minimum threshold that would be much higher than it would be in a national proportional representation election, and would keep the states in charge of election administration.

* Enact a statute requiring candidates for U.S. House in states with just one representative (probably only the Virgin Islands and Guam), and for U.S. Senate, to win a majority of the vote to be elected in a general election and to hold a runoff election of the two two candidates if no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the first round. This would largely end spoiler effects as the shift in the House to what would become a multi-party system would increase the likelihood non-majority first round results.

* End the filibuster and Senatorial holds in the U.S. Senate.

Presidential Elections and Disability

* Require states to allocate their electoral votes proportionately to each candidate's popular vote, rather than by a winner take all method for a whole state, or by Congressional district.

* Pass a law implementing Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the United States Constitution (concerning Presidential disability), to create a Presidential disability commission in connection with the language giving "the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers or the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may be law provide" the authority to determine that the President is "unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office" and to keep that determination in force pending a Congressional determination of the question if the President disputes it. This commission might be made up the active judges, collectively, of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia and would have subpoena power in connection with carrying out its duties in this capacity, and would act on the Petition of the Vice President delivered under seal to the clerk of that court.

Qualifications For Public Office

* Enact a law implementing the insurgency disqualification from office in the 14th Amendment (or on any other ground) allowing any court or tribunal with jurisdiction over election administration to determine this by a preponderance of the evidence in a civil action, and allowing states courts and U.S. District Courts from a state where the official was elected to determine this after an election or appointment. For the President and Vice President, the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia would have exclusive jurisdiction after they were elected (and even before they were sworn in). For federal appointed officials, the U.S. District Court with jurisdiction over the place where the official's primary office address is located would have exclusive jurisdiction. For state and local appointed officials, the state courts of general jurisdiction and U.S. District Courts with jurisdiction over the place where the official's primary office address is located would have exclusive jurisdiction.

Election Administration 

* Restore the protections of the Voting Rights Act expanding the protections historically applied only in places with a history of discrimination to the entire country.

* Create a right to have a state ID issued free of charge at some government office within their county at least every five years, with replacement costs limited to the actual direct cost of preparing a new ID between times. Automatically register anyone who is a citizens with a state ID or driver's license to vote. 

* Allow citizenship for voting purpose to be proven by means including any record of a previous voter registration, a passport, an expired passport, a birth certificate, a naturalization document, a tribal membership, a Social Security number, a marriage certificate to a U.S. citizen, or an affidavit establishing facts necessary to prove U.S. citizenship.

* Establish a right to an absentee ballot without proof of need for any registered voter, if a mail-in ballot is not otherwise made available to them.

* Encourage states to reduce the voting age in federal elections to sixteen years old.

* Classify people who are incarcerated as residents of their domicile immediately prior to their incarceration for purposes of state and local redistricting and for census purposes.

* Allow U.S. citizens who have no previous domicile in any U.S. state as residents of the U.S. state of their choice for purposes of federal elections.

* Prohibit election administration by elected officials (partisan or not), and also by partisan political appointees for whom one party controls the highest governing body of the election administration agency.

Courts

* Pack the court. Add another seven justices to the U.S. Supreme Court to end the distortions arising from having a 6-3 ultraconservative and hyper-conservative majority there. This should be done before any of the rest of this agenda is enacted.

* Establish criminal penalties that include disqualification from office for ethics violations by U.S. Supreme Court judges and other judges, with special venue provisions.

* Repeal the general federal diversity jurisdiction statute. 28 U.S.C. § 1332. As a result, federal court diversity jurisdiction would be allowed only in very specialized cases like class actions and cases where the parties claim ownership of land under the laws of two different states.

* Repeal the general federal question statute. 28 U.S.C. § 1331. This would end federal court jurisdiction over most lawsuits arising under federal law between private parties outside some very specific circumstances such as civil rights, election laws, intellectual property, and bankruptcy cases. The biggest impact of this would be to limit employment discrimination lawsuits to state court.

* Abolish the federal Article I immigration courts and give the U.S. District Courts exclusive jurisdiction over all immigration cases.

* Create a specialized national U.S. District Court for Indian Country which would have jurisdictions from multiple venues in cases where the U.S. District Courts currently have jurisdiction (i.e. felonies committed in Indian territory) and over other civil matters of Indian law, from which appeals would be taken to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

* Statutorily end qualified immunity to lawsuits filed under 42 U.S.C. § 1983.

* End a law parallel to 42 U.S.C. § 1983 for violations of civil rights under color of federal law, thus codifying and expanding the scope of Bivens actions.

* Establish vicarious liability for the employers of government officials or contractors held liable under 42 U.S.C. § 1983 or its new federal counterpart.

* Enact a federal law entitling someone to relief in the form of compensatory money damages, injunctive relief, and declaratory relief from governmental entities that deprive someone of a constitutional or federal statutory right, even in the absence of fault or an intent to do so, including any deprivation of liberty arising from pre-conviction or post-conviction incarceration from someone who was wrongfully convicted, either due to procedural violations giving rise to the conviction or due to their innocence of the charges giving rise to their conviction.

* Enact a law creating a private right of action to seek injunctive relief enforcing the Posse Comitatus Act (which prohibits the use of the federal military to enforce laws domestically) in the appropriate U.S. District Court, to any person impacted by it or to any governmental entity within whose territory military personnel are used for this purpose, with expedited proceedings.

* Prohibit the activation and deployment of national guard troops in a state without the permission of its Governor, absent a notice to the Governor that troops will be deployed at least twenty-four hours in advance and a showing that law and order have collapsed to a point where civilian efforts are insufficient, or that an insurgency is in progress, or that the state is defying federal court orders. If a Governor contests this within twenty-four hours in the relevant U.S. District Court, this activation and deployment shall be stayed until an expedited hearing on the merits can be held to determine if the President has the authority to do so.

* Give U.S. District Court judges broad statutory authority to impose national injunctions against the U.S. federal government.

* Establish a judicial process required to claim the state secrets doctrine in an adversarial proceeding with a specially qualified bar of people having national security clearance at the time of their admission.

* Require an adversarial proceeding affording a personal with national security clearance with due process to revoke a national security clearance for more than five weeks (if this is not done, the temporary revocation would automatically expire).

* A U.S. District Court should be granted the authority to place any federal government agency whose senior officer has defied a court order to place that agency under court receivership, and to remove that government official from office, until a replacement who acknowledges the authority of the court and personally commits to obey that court order can be appointed. 

* Prohibit "bounty" laws that allow someone who would otherwise have no standing to bring a civil action to sue someone for a fine that enforces a state law (which are designed to circumvent judicial review of such laws).

Immigration Laws

* Immediately and automatically grant U.S. citizenship to all legal permanent residents of the U.S. (i.e. green card holders) and to all U.S. nationals who are not U.S. citizens. Allow anyone qualified to get a green card now to immediately get U.S. citizenship.

* Immediately and automatically grant U.S. citizenship to the spouse of any U.S. citizen.

* Grant automatic U.S. citizenship to any member of any recognized Native American tribe, regardless of place of birth, in accordance with the membership rules of the tribe.

* Grant citizenship at birth to a child anyone who is a U.S. citizen, or is serving in the U.S. military at the time of conception or birth. Proof of paternity may be established from the DNA records of the U.S. military kept for people serving in the U.S. military for post-humous identification purposes without the consent of the service member alleged to be a parent (or from a comparison to the DNA of all U.S. service members if the identity of the service member is not known).

* Establish a ten year statute of limitations from first entry into the U.S. (even if interrupted by period abroad of less than one year at a time) on deportations, and allow anyone for whom the statute of limitations has passed to apply for U.S. citizenship on that basis without any civics and English language test.

* Make a passport available free of charge a first time and every time it expires to every U.S. citizen.

* Eliminate authority to denaturalize someone for fraud in the immigration process for any reason, and replace that with criminal penalties for doing so that do not deprive someone of their U.S. citizenship.

* Allow a visa to be revoked after clearing an immigration checkpoint upon entry to the U.S. only with a civil action filed by the United States government in a U.S. District Court at which a valid legal basis to do so, that is not unduly vague and does not violate constitutional rights such as the right to free speech, is established by a preponderance of the evidence.

* Allow someone with a valid visa who is denied entry to the U.S. at an immigration checkpoint to obtain an award of money damages and injunctive relief if the denial of entry is without probable cause to do so, and to obtain injunctive relief reinstating the visa with no right of immigration officials to deny entry if entry is denied with probable cause but the articulated probable cause concern is later overcome. A person with a valid visa who is denied entry could elect to litigate the matter either from a temporary detention center near the place of entry, or from a U.S. embassy in another country such as the country from which they arrived.

* Prohibit deportation of someone, even when valid grounds exist to deport them, to a country where the person is not a national without their consent.

* Establish by statute (regardless of any constitutionally permissible alternatives) that probable cause that someone is deportable is requires to detain someone for immigration violations and that no one may be deported for any reason without notice and a hearing in an Article III court.

* State and local elected officials with immigration detention facilities located in their government's territory, and members of Congress from any state, shall have the right to enter and inspect an immigration detention facility and record by any meaning the people there, what the detainees have to say, and the conditions of the facility, and to demand responses from any person employed there to their questions about the facility, the authority for operating the facility, and the status of the people in the facility.

* The location and status of everyone detained for immigration purposes shall be available to the public.

* Immigration officials and any other private or public person working with them or on their behalf on on their authority shall have a duty to immediately release anyone detained for immigration purposes who presents to them proof that they are U.S. citizens or have a valid visa that has not been revoked by a court. 

Health Care

* Expand Medicare to everyone (without requiring any proof of eligibility), financing it with an increased Medicare payroll tax rate and an Obamacare tax on investment income at the same rate as for self-employed persons. Failure to make a required copayment would not be a basis for denying care but would give rise to an unsecured debt that could be discharged in bankruptcy. Convert VA Hospitals to non-profit independent hospitals financed with Medicare. Repeal Medicaid. End private for profit insurance Medicare providers. Reduce all employee health benefits to Medicare supplemental plans. Require Medicare supplemental plan providers to use standardized claim forms with providers and insureds to simplify provider paperwork.

* End lawsuits seeking to recover the costs of medical care paid for by Medicare brought by any party but the Medicare subrogation division in each state, which could bring subrogation lawsuits in state court to recover medical costs caused by tortious conduct when it determined that it was cost effective to do so.

* Expand Medicare to include long term nursing home care with a deductible not to exceed the median rent in the metropolitan area (or outside of metropolitan areas, in the rural area of that state), which can be paid with a federally guaranteed loan at the one year U.S. Treasury bond interest rate with no payments due until death, secured by a junior mortgage on the patient's personal residence, if any, if the patient is unable to pay.

Labor Laws

* Increase the federal minimum wage to $16 per hour ($32,000 per year for a full-time employee which is roughly the federal poverty line outside Alaska and Hawaii), index it to the consumer price index, and extend it to independent contractors who are providing personal services.

* The Family and Medical Leave Act of 1993 (FMLA) entitles eligible employees to twelve workweeks of leave in a 12-month period for the birth of a child and to care for the newborn child within one year of birth, the placement with the employee of a child for adoption or foster care and to care for the newly placed child within one year of placement,  to care for the employee’s spouse, child, or parent who has a serious health condition (a serious health condition that makes the employee unable to perform the essential functions of his or her job), any qualifying exigency arising out of the fact that the employee’s spouse, son, daughter, or parent is a covered military member on “covered active duty;” or twenty-six work weeks of leave during a single 12-month period to care for a covered service member with a serious injury or illness if the eligible employee is the service member’s spouse, son, daughter, parent, or next of kin (military caregiver leave). Extend FMLA coverage to include being seven months pregnant or more. Expend the duration to up to eight months in a two year period. Create a federal grant equivalent to full-time minimum wage to anyone taking time off under the FMLA.

* Mandate a prorated 80 hours per year of paid time off for employees working 2,000 hours per year (i.e. 1 hour per 25 hours worked).

Controlled Substances

* End the status of marijuana as a federally controlled substance.

Reproductive Rights

* Statutorily clarify that states may not prohibit someone from prescribing and mailing abortion or contraception drugs across state lines or from crossing state lines to obtain an abortion drug or contraception drug obtained from out of state.

* Clarify that federal government health care facilities (e.g. prison medical centers, military hospitals, historically veteran's hospitals) can provide abortions and other reproductive health care notwithstanding state or local law.

* Clarify that the Emergency Medical Treatment Act requires states to allow abortions as part of a medical emergency, pre-empting state law. 

07 August 2025

The State Of The Union

The State of the Union is bad and the union is weak.

Another day has passed and the tyrants are still in power.

Trump is still issuing unconstitutional and illegal executive orders, which is absolutely infuriating. 

RFK, Jr. is busy trying to make sure that more Americans die by ending medical research and promoting dangerous junk science about vaccines and more. 

Texas is trying to cheat by redistricting for the 2026 election. 

The courts have slowed it down a little, but only so much. The 10th Circuit let Oklahoma ban medical care for transgender children. The Republican packed U.S. Supreme Court in encouraging Trump's illegal conduct. 

Congress has smoothed the edges mildly, but the razor thin and factious Republican majority is full of cowards who aren't brave enough to look out for our country even when they know that what they are voting for is wrong.

The U.S. was a global leader in science, medical research, and higher education. Trump 2.0 is doing it's best to kill that. He's also radically defunding K-12 education and undermining academic freedom and a commitment to truth at all levels.

Biden left Trump a U.S. economy that was in great shape. Trump has ravaged that in less than seven months with tariffs, with a resort to illegal immigration enforcement actions, with tax cuts that hurt the economy, and with a budget so fiscally irresponsible that the credit rating of the U.S. has suffered. His attacks on the independence of the Fed, and the integrity of economic statistics also undermine the U.S. economy.

Trump's budget deprives more than ten million people of access to health care, makes health care more expensive (especially for the working class and for self-employed people) and less available for almost everyone (especially in rural areas), deprives millions of food aid, and will kill tens of millions with cuts in foreign aid.

Wars are won by the side with the most and strongest allies, and Trump has alienated almost all of them. Previously allied countries are cancelling F-35 orders or like Spain, deciding not to make them, because of his actions.

So much harm has been done so fast. No one in all of history has ever done more damage to the United States than Donald Trump.

Is There Hope?

While all of this is grim, and irreparable damage has already been done, the cause is not hopeless. 

The U.S. economy, even for the Trump base, is nowhere near the tatters that Weimar Germany was, which suggests that far right radicalism will have less steam.

The U.S. is a federal system and blue states are actively resisting.

Trump and the GOP did not win a decisive victory in 2024. They secured the thinnest of majorities in the House, thin majorities in some key swing states in the Presidential election, and a thin majority in the Senate with several (but not enough) moderates parting ways with him on key votes in the Senate. A few percentage point shift in public opinion from their November 2024 high water mark could dramatically swing control to the Democrats. In Texas, only 53% of voters backed Republicans for Congress, although gerrymandering provided them a far larger share of the seats, and the proposed Texas gerrymander to remove five Democrats seats could backfire by making many of the Republican seats in the new map much more vulnerable.

Trump's approval rating is at record lows, even compared to his previous term. The Epstein scandal continues to eat away at Trump and is undermining support for him even in his base. His budget is wildly unpopular on a bipartisan basis.

SCOTUS has never had a lower approval rating, is at record or near record lows of support from Democrats and unaffiliated voters, and is more divisive on partisan lines than ever before (as is Congress), and this may mobilize action to pack it or reform it. SCOTUS may not be formally beholden to politics, but it isn't indifferent to its waning legitimacy either.

The markets have responded poorly to Trump's idiotic on again, off again tariff policies and his threats to Fed independence.

Trump has made enemies of the entire medical establishment, almost all of higher education, school teachers everywhere, and the Catholic Church. His open racism and xenophobia may cost Republicans some of the black and Hispanic support that Trump secured in 2024. And, even a fair number of Republican politicians and former members of his administration, when they are retiring or otherwise less vulnerable, have shown little loyalty to him. Trump rules by fear and transactional deals alone.

Swing states like Nevada are suffering badly as a result of his policies. Farmers are suffering. Small business people are getting hurt. Manufacturing is in bad shape despite the fact that boosting this industry was one of his main goals. Inflation, especially for groceries, is surging. The haughty indifference of his cabinet members cost many people their lives in the central Texas floods. Trump's refusal to provide disaster relief has mostly hurt his own voters. His budget did much more harm to red states than the blue states. The more Trump's policies are implemented, the more skeptical conservatives are being forced to admit that they are worse off because of them.

Democrats are decisively over-performing in almost every vacancy election, and elections around the world are swinging decisively to the left in reaction to Trump. If the 2026 midterm elections proceed without too much GOP mischief, they could be a Republican bloodbath with even many lean GOP seats falling to Democratic challengers.

People are in the streets countering ICE abuses and protesting Trump's many abuses.

Trump has somehow finally discovered that Putin is the bad guy in the Ukraine War and is supporting Ukraine again after seriously wavering. European support is also keeping Ukraine in the fight in an ongoing war of attrition where it is holding its own, despite casualties and slight continued losses of its territory. Putin is increasingly worried about Russia breaking apart, and Russia's economy is struggling. Russia's military, especially its ground forces, have seen immense losses with more than a million casualties, a very large share of all of its army's tanks and armored vehicles and artillery forces destroyed, and its navy and air forces bruised (although not absolutely ruined like the army). In another year, it will be worse. Ukrainian attacks deep in Russia are damaging its oil and gas infrastructure, its transportation infrastructure, and its military resources and has forced Russia to worry about attacks far from the front line. Many of Russia's best and brightest young men have emigrated. North Korea is strengthening its military ties with Russia, but its "elite soldiers" are at least as mediocre as the ill-trained Russian conscripts that they are fighting alongside, and the quality of the military supplies that they are providing is, on average, inferior.

Trump is 79 years old and is not in good health, mentally or physically, and he's only getting worse in the face of the stress of actually governing and his advancing age. There is a very real possibility that he could die of natural causes while in office. 

The list of folks who would like him dead is a geopolitical version of Murder on the Orient Express, and the list will only keep growing. He's made enemies of Canada, Denmark, Western Europe, Panama, Mexico, Brazil, Iran, India, China, and islands inhabited only by penguins. For immigrants, small business owners who are ruined by his attempts at mass deportations without due process, people denied disaster relief, people who will lose their hospitals, federal workers and grant recipients who have lost their jobs, transgender soldiers discharged without pensions despite doing nothing wrong, soldiers who have had spouses deported, people and law firms he has targeted for revenge, and women who have had their reproductive health compromised because of his court appointments and policies, it is personal and dire. 

Elon Musk, the richest man in the world and Trump's hatchet man early in his current term, is seeing his companies from Tesla to SpaceX to his AI venture crumble, even though the stock markets haven't fully caught up to how bad the situation is for his businesses, not just now, but in their future prospects in which he is baggage that is dragging them down. Musk has no realistic chance of reversing the drag he is on his businesses, even though he beat back a host of federal government attacks on them in the short run by cozying up to Trump. But, Musk's threat to start a new political party, which would take voter support almost entirely from Republicans, could be devastating for the GOP in 2026 if implemented.

And, one shouldn't forget that the inevitable force of demographic change is against them. New younger voters who first vote in a federal election in 2026 are very decisively left leaning, much less Christian, and much less white. Elderly voters who are the most conservative and the most prone to be white Evangelical Christians will die before then. Two years doesn't make for that much of a difference, but it is one more little weight on the scale against the GOP.

Republicans have made a huge bet on a stupid, vengeful, psychopathic mad man, and if their bet doesn't pay off, they face an existential crisis. They could go the way of the Whigs. Their collapse could be worse than it was in the wake of Herbert Hoover and could last as long.

08 July 2025

Why Is David Brooks Wrong About Why People Admire Donald Trump?

Brooks On Why People Admire Trump

David Brooks, a pundit who also writes for the New York Times, who is a former conservative who later in his career transitioned to being a moderate, has a new article today in the Atlantic magazine, entitled "Why Do So Many People Think That Trump Is Good?" that is also an engagement with the life work of philosopher Alasdair MacIntyre, who recently passed in May at the age of 94.

MacIntyre argued that from at least the time of the classical period, communities ("a dense network of faily, tribe, city, and nation") created duties and expectations about how to live your life and act morally according to your social role ("soldier, farmers, merchants" and mothers), which people generally accepted and made it their life's work to live up to as well as you could. Judaism, Christianity and Islam tweaked these duties and expectations to give greater weight to compassion and humility, but through the Middle Ages maintained the same social structure in which morality and your duties in life were societally imposed. The wars of religion at the end of the Middle Ages convinced people that maybe religion was not the best thing to organize societies upon and in reaction to that came the Enlightenment period of the 18th century centered upon reason and science, and relegated morality to a matter of individual choice.

MacIntyre argued that this produced a decline in shared morality, although Brooks himself would put this moment in the mid-1960s. The narrative continues with Nietzsche famously saying that "God is dead" because we'd killed him and made ourselves our own gods. In this narrative, Hilter, Lenin, and Mao fill that moral vacuum with narcissism, fanaticism, and authoritarianism, "and the cure turned out to be worse than the disease."

At this point it becomes less clear whether it is MacIntyre or Brooks talking. But the two solutions to a moral vacuum that Brooks presents are coercion or manipulation. Either coerce others to believe what you believe, e.g., with corporate DEI, or manipulate people with the kind of lies and sleaze that Trump and Fox News are known for utilizing. The battle of these methods in the 1980s and 1990s "looks like a golden age of peace and tranquility compared to today", Brooks argues, because in the last thirty years people have sought righteousness instead through their political identities and politics permeates everything.

Without a firm universal ground in "the virtues that are practical tools for leading a good life: honesty, fidelity, compassion, other-centeredness", "People are rendered anxious and fragile" and without a moral foundation, they "fall apart when setbacks come."

He sees Trump as a man "who doesn't even try to speak the language of morality", doesn't care about weakening "our shared moral norms" with his example, speaks a language of preference "I want" and a language of power "I have the leverage", and a language of self, of gains of acquisition, of benefitting himself, instead.

Brooks argues, within the framework of MacIntyre's philosophy that Trump is "just an exaggerated version of the kind of person modern society was designed to create." He also argues (inaccurately, in my view) that if Trump was on their team, most Democrats would like him too, and that you're lying to yourself if you deny it.

Brooks argues that pluralism is the answer to to resolving the tension created by incommensurate values, but that we need to recalibrate it to make people "more willing to sacrifice some freedom of autonomy for the sake of the larger community" and to provide rigorous moral education to the next generation (which sounds a lot like the coercion he condemned earlier in his argument).

Why Is Brooks Wrong?

I don't think this rings true, and find better answers in psychology and economics than in philosophy, which I've always considered something of a dead end and historical curiosity that recalls long since superseded proto-science, than something of real value today as anything more than intellectual history.

In my view, Trump, a psychopath rich in "dark triad" traits, is an archetypical figure familiar to observers of politics and public affairs and history since classical times, if not earlier, who is a constant threat to every organization from families to empires. There is nothing novel or surprising about him, himself. 

Demagogues were something that the Founders of the United States, at the pinnacle of the Enlightenment, worried about. Democracy and the Bill of Rights were their answer to the narcissistic mad kings and equally dark leaders of established religions with whom they were very familiar, both from the 18th century world and from the history that they knew from the classical era through the Middle Ages. The Founders were familiar with Roman Emperor Nero. Machiavelli in "The Prince" wrote about how dark triad tactics might be advisable to a leader seeking to gain power for his people. They were intimately familiar with the tyrants of British history, right up through King George. The believed that people whose rights were guarded by law would not vote for such scoundrels. Lest we forget, George R. R. Martin, in his Game of Thrones series, a fantasy series that draws heavily on the War of the Roses, history that was much more fresh in the minds of the Founders, reminds us of what that was like and why it is best avoided.

It wasn't a bad plan. 

The Constitution adopted in 1789 lasted without an insurmountable constitutional crisis for 72 years, when Civil War broke out. After the crisis over slavery that manifested in the Civil War was overcome in 4 years of brutal deadly fighting (that still leave the nation deeply divided) was over, followed a 12 year Reconstruction period, and in turn followed by 77 years or so of de jure segregation but a fragile peace. We then went on to have another 70 years or so of the constitution working more or less as intended. 

We are in the midst of another constitutional crisis now, which their plan may or may not be good enough to overcome. 

The United States of America, including its 13 years before the current constitution was adopted, is 249 years old, making it the oldest fully non-hereditary democratic governmental regimes still in existence on the scale of a large nation. But the Founders, as one of the first countries to have a full fledged democratic Republic at a large national scale, lacked the historical experience or foresight to plan for every potential eventuality and their plan is now clearly not the optimal design, although it may be that our Republic's woes are such that no formal constitution would have been sufficient to prevent them.

The times and places in history where tyrants arose also doesn't match up. MacIntyre's framework suggests that we should have seen a breakdown in a sense of duty and morality in the Enlightenment. But we didn't see this happen across the board. Yes, the moral divide in the U.S. may be traceable to the moral fight over slavery that emerged in the Enlightenment. But, this was not a general, individualized loss of community norms, it was a divide that arose between two coherent and vital cultures, that of the slaveholding South on one side, and of the abolitionist North on the other, sustained, as much as anything, by the perceived economic needs of each region, with clergy serving of cheerleaders of each side and framing these economic imperatives with moral justifications.

Why did we get Hitler in Weimar Germany, and Lenin in Russia, while France, England, and the United States were not similarly afflicted?

Hitler is the clearest example. Germany's defeat in World War I, the harsh terms of the Treaty of Versailles, hyperinflation, and economic collapse, radicalized many Germans, making them crave an authoritarian strong man to save them, and causing them to abandon the luxuries of caring for their fellow man whom they saw as their competitors, or as a drag on their society's ability to overcome the malaise that they faced.

Similar economic forces drive American politics today. After a couple of decades of remarkable shared prosperity, economic growth, which make the liberalism and the care for their fellow man of the Civil Rights movement possible, ceased to be shared starting sometime around the early 1970s. Since then, mostly educated, urban elites have captured almost all of the economy's economic growth for a half century, while less educated folk in rural areas and small towns have seen their economic prospects stagnate. The Civil Rights movement improved the economic lot of non-whites and women. New immigration laws welcomed foreigners. Free trade allowed manufacturing to be offshored to markets with lower wages, fewer labor protections, and weaker environmental laws. The U.S. de-industrialized and the Rust Belt came into being. Free trade rules, environmental rules, protections for unions, automation, birth control and abortion have, in their view, destroyed an economy fueled by domestic manufacturing and fossil fuels, in which men received good pay that made them heads of their families.

Half a century later, counties that vote blue have more than double the per capita GDP of those that vote red. Red America has captured almost none of the economic growth of the last half century, while Blue America is more prosperous than almost any other place on Earth. Prosperous Blue America extended its inclusive shared affluence mindset to allow the LGBT community to live publicly and in dignity, and to make it safe to be openly secular. 

Straight white Christian men in Red America without much education have seen every other demographic but them improve their lot in the last fifty years, while they have seen almost no improvement in their real wages, increased unemployment, and an inability to maintain stable and solid marriages and families. In relative terms, they seem themselves, and the rural and small town communities that they live in, as the losers, and see the economy as a zero sum game in which non-whites, foreigners, and women have taken what was theirs, and in which atheists and gays have ripped apart the moral framework that held their parents and grandparents families together. They want to throw out everything that they see as having driven their half century of eroded status with no end in sight, and return to the days when their relative status was vastly greater, no matter how unfair that may seem to everyone else. 

They are so frustrated over this sustained defeat that they are willing to turn to an indiscriminate authoritarian who breaks the rules that they see as having held them back, and are even willing to resort to violence, to get it. Their concerns about good character and process values and fair play have dissolved in the face of falling life expectancies, deaths of despair, regular unemployment, disability from the manual work that they are qualified to do with the economy doesn't need anymore to same extent, and their inability to hold onto wives and children that really arises not from an immoral society but from their own failures of economic providers. Faced with their conditions, they want to burn the system down and start over from new foundations that elevate their relative socio-economic standing.

Not everyone who votes for Trump has experienced this, and not everyone in red counties and red states has supported him. Some have supported Republicans simply out of thoughtless, long ingrained habit, or because they think that they are among the rich who will benefit from tax cuts. But peer pressure from enough people who matter in their little small town and rural communities, and in the working class underworld of Blue America, have made their political views (stripped of any reasoning behind them) normative in their communities, won over their wives, and caused religious congregation to which these men have been drawn because they are saying what these men want to hear to thrive and reinforce these men's views.

What we see today is more a product of capitalism, appropriately regulated but with only modest redistribution, doing what it does naturally: increasing GDP as fast as it can, while leaving the productive better off than the less productive who are worse off. But capitalism has done its thing to an extent greater than the political system is willing to bear, bringing us to a breaking point. 

It's worse in the U.S. because we have done less to cushion the blow for those who are less productive either by finding them places in the new economy or redistributing wealth and creating a stronger social safety net (in part, because racism has left the U.S. with a weaker sense of solidarity). But the same pressures are present in Europe, with somewhat different targets to fit local changes over the last half century, and are strongest in the places that are economically struggling.

Democrats Are Predominantly More Correct Than Republicans

The main sin that the Democrats have committed is not taking seriously enough the grievances of the working class, especially working class white Christian men, who have not shared in the improvement in relative or absolute prosperity that much of the rest of the nation has enjoyed, and who are lashing out at people they see as competitors or as people undermining morality, when neither of these things is the real problem. 

Despite adopting many policies that substantively benefit Red America more than their own base, they didn't go quite far enough, and left this constituency economically struggling, and equally importantly, feeling like they didn't matter and were neglected.

Progressives gets this and have tried to secure radical economic reforms to address this problem, so they don't have to resort to the injustices towards innocents that Trump has inflamed his supporters to think they want. But progressives do not make up a majority of the American public, and the bigger tent necessary to secure the majorities needed to reach a position of power where change can be enacted, and a constitutional framework and political system that tends to create gridlock and too strongly defends the status quo, has thwarted their efforts to secure more than incremental change, which has not been enough. Sometimes the frustration of progressives over their insufficient clout and numbers to achieve the full measure of their goals in a system that already makes it too hard to do so, when they rightfully believe that their proposals are urgently needed to keep far right tendencies at bay and secure economic justice, even boil over into claims that Democrats are no different than Republicans, since both are controlled by big business, despite the fact that this just undermines their own cause.

Contrary to Brooks' assertion, Democrats wouldn't fall for a Trump. They aren't desperate in the way that the MAGA Republican base is, and so they are happy to purge people like him from their ranks when they are caught. The Democratic Party isn't full of criminals, and is much less corrupt than the Republican Party which has had vastly more criminals and is now openly corrupt. 

Democrats and progressives are right that a manufacturing based fossil fuel economy isn't coming back, and that even if manufacturing did come back that 21st century manufacturing is so automated and skill intensive for most jobs, and so unproductive and low paying for others, that it wouldn't restore the economy and related societal consequences that flowed from it anyway.

Democrats are right that the rich aren't taxed enough, although they are mistaken that unions are a leading cause of the shared prosperity benefits that came from a tight labor market, rather than a symptom of that tight labor market that more efficiently utilized economic power that workers already had.

The Democratic effort to create working class clean economy jobs was the right idea, but was too little, too late.

Republicans are wrong in thinking that putting the Ten Commandments in schools, embracing religion, restricting abortion and birth control, making it legally harder to divorce, and squashing gay rights and transgender rights will restore morality and strengthen working class families.

Republicans are wrong in thinking that economics is a zero sum game, in which gains for non-whites, women, educated people, and immigrants, and imports leave white native born men without higher education, their communities, and the U.S. economy, generally, worse off.

Republicans are wrong in thinking that taxes and government spending are bad for the economy or bad for them. They are particularly wrong in thinking that reducing social safety net spending which disproportionately benefits them, will leave them better off, or that tax cuts for the wealthy, big businesses, and people with high incomes weaken the economy or leave them worse off. They have also forgotten (or never knew) that the era they seek to return to "when America was great" was characterized by high taxes and lots of government spending (as well as a very militant union movement).

Republicans are wrong in thinking that they don't benefit from the world order that foreign aid spending and our historical military alliances supported, and are a waste of money, and in thinking about military strength purely in terms of U.S. military might standing alone when wars are almost always won by the side with the most allies and "soft power."

But It Takes More Than Facts And Logic To Change Minds

Of course, as we've learned very painfully, mere facts and logic are enough enough to change political views, and in particular, are not enough to change the political views of a base that holds those views precisely because it has not prospered in an economy based upon knowledge and intellectual ability, and has had wealthy, amoral elites manipulate the information that has been imparted to them.

People's political identities are fundamentally social and are deeply shaped by economics and the information, however untrue it may be, that they have chosen to listen to when forming their world views (something that is itself influenced by their economic circumstances, as well as their ancestral culture).

You have to quash fountains of disinformation and fact resistance that have been gradually taking hold for decades. You have to either get people to admit that they have been conned, or find a way for people to change their political views that allows them to deny that this has happened. You have to make their views uncomfortable for them to hold in their own personal lives, but must do so in circumstances where converting from them is less painful than retreating into their denial with likeminded victims of the con. You have to be able to show them in terms that they understand and believe that your proposals are better than MAGA's and to back that up with an ability to produce tangible results for them. You have to address their needs and hardships, and not merely show that the other side is worse.

Those are tall orders, and it isn't clear that Democrats are up to the challenge. 

Democrats best hope is really that the Republicans, at a time when they are undeniably in complete control, are making the lives of the MAGA base tangibly worse, or convince the MAGA base that this is imminently about to happen, and to undermine any hope that they have that burning everything down will lead to a future that leaves them better off in relative terms, if not in absolute terms. Trump and his allies, as they attempt to govern in a purely ideological manner, are their own worst enemies here.

The GOP's hold on Congress is tenuous. In 2026, flipping 4 seats out of a 53 GOP seats would flip the Senate, and flipping 3 seats out of 220 GOP seats in the House (and reclaiming three currently vacant democratic seats in vacancy elections) would flip the House. Trump is the least popular President since Trump, and many of his particular policies, including his recently passed budget, are wildly unpopular with voters. The public is no fan of Congress and a lot of Republicans in Congress have voted for measures that are unpopular with the people who elected them (even though the final budget bill retreated from many of Trump's demands) and will actively hurt the people who elected them. Some of the gerrymandering that influenced the results of the 2024 election will also be remedied in 2026. Elon Musk's proposal to create a new "American Party", even if it wasn't terribly successful, would split the conservative vote in a way that could benefit Democrats immensely. The U.S. Supreme Court has also never had less popular support in the history of modern polling, and conservative voters no longer need to support Trump and the GOP to keep in that way (or to have their tax cuts for corporations and the rich made permanent).

It is unlikely that Republicans will hold both Houses of Congress in the 2026 election. They will probably lose control of the House and at least lose ground in the Senate, barring a major escalation in the steps that Trump has tried to take to erode democracy in the last sixteen months, with lukewarm but significant support from the Supreme Court's conservative supermajority which has significantly impaired the ability of other federal courts to restrain Trump.

Time will tell how it turns out in the midst of the constant political chaos and societal unrest that Trump have actively stoked.

Left leaning forces don't have to keep MAGA's dictatorial power grab at bay forever. The MAGA base is in demographic decline. The Democratic base is growing. If the left can endure this crisis and thwart full on totalitarianism until Trump is dead and his MAGA agenda has been discredited by its own failures severely enough, for enough years, the crisis will be overcome and the Republic can be saved. It may be bruised, battered, and irrevocably harmed in many ways, but it would not be beyond all saving. 

But history is also not without precedents, like Iran, Afghanistan, and North Korea, where progress is dramatically reversed when totalitarians succeed, and this backward state continues for forty years or more with minimal progress. And, unlike the case of people subject to the Axis regimes in World War II, no other country or alliance will be coming to rescue us, because we are too big and too militarily mighty. Another civil war might save us if that happens, but that would be a horrible price to pay.

03 July 2025

The GOP Budget In Charts

The Republican budget passed today passed the House initially by 215-214, passed the Senate in a 51-50 VP tie breaking vote, and passed the House the second time around by 218-214 with no amendments from the Senate version (which was slightly better than the original House version, mostly because bad non-budgetary riders were stripped from the bill). These razor thin majorities, however, have made immense changes to U.S. tax laws and federal spending that are unrivaled since the War on Poverty during LBJ's administration.

This will do irreparable harm in the next couple of years, at least, disproportionately suffered by Republican controlled areas and Republican voters, and the bill's provisions are wildly unpopular with the American public.

The big question is whether this bill, along with Trump's other horrible steps in governing, will lead to a catastrophic defeat for Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections as backlash, or whether the usual partisan tendencies will remain unchanged. Have Republicans committed political suicide? Or will the MAGA cult remain strong after encountering the "find out" part of the FAFO adventure.

I can't imagine how any decent person could sleep at night backing this proposal, and struggle to discern any values other than massively transferring wealth from the poor to benefit the rich, are served by it. But Republicans never cease to surprise me.

The big messages about the budget are that: 

(1) the tax cuts in Trump's budget are driving up the national debt immensely (more than any other bill in the Biden or Trump Administrations by a lot) and will drive up interest payments as a drain on tax revenues, 

(2) the number of people without health insurance will grow from about 25 million (out of a U.S. population of about 340 million) to more than 35 million due mostly to Medicaid changes and there will be a massive disinvestment in health care, 

(3) student loan payments for new college graduates will soar, 

(4) the clean energy investments that are eliminated will mostly hurt people in Republican Congressional districts, 

(5) the bottom 20% are much worse off, the next 20% break even very rich are much better off, while the poor are much worse off, the next 59% are modestly better off, and the top 1% and big businesses are vastly better off, and

(6) any improvements to economic growth are exceedingly small.

One key impact that the charts don't note is that many hundreds of rural hospitals (maybe more than a thousand), almost all in Republican dominated areas, will close. 

It also doesn't really capture how deep cuts to federal spending programs will be, except for defense and funds to carry out mass deportations which get big budget boosts.

The charts via the New York Times: