Showing posts with label 2026 election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2026 election. Show all posts

09 August 2026

Colorado Ballot Issues In 2026

There will be up to 15 state ballot issues in November in Colorado.

Citizen initiatives that have qualified for the ballot propose changes to state law that include: 
BAD. Increased criminal penalties for the possession or sale of fentanyl and other synthetic opioids. 
A LITTLE BAD. Life in prison for the human trafficking of a minor
BAD. A ban on transgender youth from playing on sports teams not aligned with their biological sex. 
BAD. A ban on gender-affirming surgery for people younger than 18.

Proposed constitutional changes that have qualified for the ballot include: 
BAD. A requirement that law enforcement notify federal immigration officials when an immigrant without proper legal status is charged with a violent crime. 
BAD. The establishment of a right to use natural gas for cooking and heating. 
BAD. A mandate that all taxes and fees collected for motor vehicles and gas be spent on roads.

Other measures are still awaiting final approval by the secretary of state: 
GOOD. A proposal that would move Colorado to a graduated income tax system in which high earners pay a higher tax rate, marking a big change in tax policy. 
BAD. A requirement that sales taxes on sporting goods be earmarked for conservation efforts
BAD. A mandate for additional voter verification for mail-in ballots. 
A LITTLE BAD. A ban on congressional redistricting outside the typical once-a-decade census cycle. 
BAD. The creation of a constitutional right to hunt and fish
A LITTLE BAD. A requirement that ballot questions be written at an 8th grade reading level.

GOOD. A proposal that would raise the amount of tax money the state can keep under the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights — known as raising the TABOR cap — was placed on the ballot by legislators last spring. That extra money, which normally would be returned through refunds or another way, would be mandated to go to education.

11 June 2026

My Picks In Colorado's 2026 Democratic Primary


A colleague of mine has worked as an attorney for both Hetal Doshi and Mike Dougherty, and tells me that while both have done a good job and are competent, that Hetal Doshi is the better leader of a larger organization like the AG's office and would do a better job. Jena Griswold has been a great SOS, but is not a seasoned lawyer with the expertise managing lawyers needed to be effective in the AG's office even though her heart is in the right place.

I prefer Amanda Gonzales, the clerk and recorder of Jefferson County, over Jessie Danielson, a former two term state senator and election law activist, because the SOS calls for administrative competence (which Amanda Gonzales has displayed) and not quality legislative innovation (which is where Danielson excels).

Congresswoman Diana DeGette has performed much better than John W. Hickenlooper and Michael Bennet in Congress (both of whom lead the U.S. Senate Democrats in supporting Trump, and have disappointed on some key issues before Trump 2.0, and have not been very active advocates) but is coasting, didn't advance very impressive bills when she had the chance, and in general, is not being as effective as she could be. DeGette's seniority also doesn't matter much when Trump is still President, limiting what that means in the next two years, and it is time to pass the baton to a new generation of leaders. Melat Kiros has a lot of passion, but isn't very accomplished and hasn't proven herself. Wanda James, whom I've spoken to personally and didn't immediately support when it didn't seem like she had a viable chance in the political climate at the time that I did, in contrast, has proven herself in both business and politics, and has more fire in her belly than DeGette does.

Phil Weiser is the obvious choice over Senator Bennet for Governor. Bennet did not distinguish himself as Denver Public Schools Superintendent, and has done a mediocre job as U.S. Senator, while Phil Weiser has risen to the challenge is resisting Trump vigorously and effectively as AG.

John W. Hickenlooper despite having done an excellent job as Mayor of Denver, and a decent enough job as Governor, has done a mediocre job as U.S. Senator and doesn't deserve another term. Julie Gonzales won't be one of the biggest Trump supporters in the Democratic Caucus in the Senate, and will be more pro-active in advancing federal legislation that moves the country in the right direction.

The highlighted candidates are my picks. There are four state legislative races in Denver where I currently don't know enough to make a pick (and probably won't, because I don't live in any of those districts).

18 March 2026

A Glimmer Of Hope

 The status quo is a one vote Republican majority, but Trump screwed it up for the GOP.


08 March 2026

Indirect And Non-Obvious Effects Of The Iran War

The U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran (the NYT recaps the first week here) will have some indirect and non-obvious impacts, some of which mirror those from the Ukraine War.

* Iran is the sole significant outside military supplier for Russia in the Ukraine War (supplying drones) apart from North Korea which has supplied artillery rounds and some old school military equipment (and even about 10,000 troops) all of which have been subpar in quality and not very useful. The attacks on Iran are likely to divert existing supplies of drones to domestic military use from exports to Russia for use in counterstrikes, and are likely to somewhat degrade Iran's military production capabilities.

* Iran's counterattacks and continued war-like footing have driven up global oil prices dramatically, have had direct supply effects on most of Asia, and have damaged the oil production infrastructure in many Middle Eastern oil producing nations (including Saudi Arabia) which will reduce the capacity of these countries to produce oil in the short to medium term.

* This oil price shock, like many more before it, makes electric vehicles and public transportation more attractive to policy-makers and consumers alike, all over the world, potentially resulting in long-term systemic reduction in demand for oil.

* This mirrors the indirect effect of the Ukraine War in causing Europe to rush to find long term alternatives to oil and natural gas, resulting in wider adoption of EV vehicles, renewable energy sources for their power grids, and energy conservation measures. Again, this results in long-term systemic reductions in demand for oil and natural gas in one of the largest economically developed regions in the world.

* The Ukraine War also strengthened NATO, strengthened European cooperation, and caused re-militarization of European countries, especially those most at risk of attacks from Russia.

* Trump's inexplicable decision to temporarily ease sanctions on Russian oil sales to India, helps Russia in the Ukraine War despite the fact that Russia has used its intelligence resources to help target the U.S. and its allies for Iranian counterstrikes.

* Generally, an international war strengthens the regime attacks vis-a-vis external dissent (something that partially explains Russia's persistence in the Ukraine because the ongoing war there makes Putin more able to crush dissent against him at home). The protests of the Iranian people against its regime may suffer because of this effect. While the U.S. assassinated the Ayatollah, Iran's supreme leader, and many of the likely successors, the successor chosen for this reason is probably more likely to be a hardliner than the person who might have been chosen if the Ayatollah (who was 86 years old and close to 87 when he was killed by a U.S. strike) had died of natural causes as was likely in the near future.

* It seems unlikely that Iran will experience regime change, either in favor of a more democratic regime (Iran's democracy was actually more robust than a lot of regimes in the Middle East), or a monarchist restoration of the Shah. Pre-attack, this had been conceivable because of huge protests against the too conservative Shiite religious regime's social policies, despite the fact that Iran is actually quite religiously and ethnically diverse. Air strikes and missiles are rarely sufficient to secure regime change.

* The war probably delays steps that could be positive for the residents of Gaza.

* The war probably depletes military equipment supplies of Iran, and to a lesser extent, the U.S. and Israel, weakening the affected countries' capacity to fight further wars.

* In much the same way, the Ukraine War has dramatically depleted Russia's military resources (despite half the national budget in Russia being spent on the military and interest on loans to support it).

* The strikes in Iran are very likely to weaken the Republican Party's MAGA coalition, since MAGA campaigned on ending foreign wars of choice and then has repeatedly sought out those wars in Trump's second term, striking Venezuela, embargoing Cuba, striking Iran, and renewing a "drug war" in Mexico, Ecuador, the Caribbean, and the Pacific, which doesn't seem very calculated to actually do anything about drug abuse and drug related crime in the U.S. (as well as threatening Canada and Greenland). This coalition has already been beaten up in special elections and survey results and has a very thin majority (especially in the U.S. House).

* The inflation caused by rising oil prices, weakens support for Trump and the Republicans and strengthens Democrats chances in the 2026 midterm elections, which are just seven months away.

* The Iran War hasn't been particularly effective at diverting attention from the Epstein files which graphically reveal a coalition of child trafficking, corrupt, and Russian influenced officials in senior levels of politics, business, and academia, with Trump at the center of all of it as a highly culpable serial child rapist.

* The Venezuela invasion, by the way, seems inconclusive and certainly doesn't seem to be having much of an oil supply impact.

05 February 2026

The MAGA-GOP Coalition Is Falling Apart

 




Trump's decade plus old hold on the GOP is slipping, because Republican political leaders they know that their prospects in the midterms look apocalyptically bad as a result of his actions over the last year.

03 October 2025

Not All Hope Is Lost (Yet)!

Keep fighting!

Every week (there are rare days of respite) there is news so bad that I vacillate between outrage and despair over the future of our country.

On the other hand, while we have plummeted into a less free semi-democracy, and plenty of irrevocable damage has been done, we aren't yet beyond a point of no return.

The government shutdown demonstrates that Congress can do something. And, with the "nuclear option" well-established in the U.S. Senate now, the fact that the filibuster hasn't be abrogated to end the shutdown means that there is at least some tacit dissatisfaction with the administration among some Republicans in Congress, even if they are too cowardly to translate that into a roll call vote against the President.

While SCOTUS has frequently shut down lower court checks on Trump's assault on the rule of law, the lower federal courts and litigation of blue states has slowed the process down and put serious friction in the way of his bid to become a dictator.

Attempted military occupations of L.A., D.C., Chicago, and Portland (OR), have had far less shock and awe that Trump hoped. His birthday parade flopped and his rally of generals and admirals likewise demonstrated that while the military may reluctantly obey their commander in chief, that he does not have firm control of, or the loyal and enthusiastic support of, the military.

Trump's aggressive secret police style ICE tactics have undermined public backing for his immigration policies, which were a key factor in getting him and the Republicans in Congress who only have a razor thin majority as it is in the House and in the Senate, elected.

Now that the rich have gotten their tax breaks, they don't need him nearly so badly any more, and are shifting to worrying about whether his bad economic policies will deny them any profits to evade taxes on at all.

We are thirteen months away from the midterm elections, at a time when Trump's popularity has plummeted to record lows and where Democrats are vastly over performing in special vacancy elections. GOP gerrymanders are getting a response from Blue state counter-gerrymanders. And, the cost the GOP risks when it grasps for more Republican districts is that those districts may become less safe and flip as public opinion turns against Trump (primarily among disappointed Republicans and independents who voted for Trump).

It is dim, but there is still some light at the end of the tunnel.

15 August 2025

Our Dismal Moment

The left is fighting for all it is worth to keep democracy alive in America, to create a world where justice prevails, where villains aren't rewarded, where decency and empathy guide policy, where science and reason are heard, and where people doing good are empowered through cooperative effort.

The right has less noble goal and tries to achieve them with lies, cheating, and violence. There was a time when there were intellectually defensible conservative policy arguments that the right tried to advance. But that has died with MAGA. Trump is a post-policy politician who is doing is best to run the federal government, and the United States of America into the ground without regard to any legitimate arguments for doing so.

Why the political right in the United States, which is suffering and will suffer further from Trump's agenda, doesn't wake up and turn on Trump is hard to understand.

Trump, a life long con man, rapist, and pedophile, and more recently, a felon, an insurrectionist and hard core fascist (like his father), is unraveling further into his most basic psychopathic tendencies as, at age 79, his dementia, probably the same Lewy body dementia that afflicted his father Fred in his 70s, gets steadily worse. The average 79 year old man in the U.S. has a life expectancy of 9-10 years and Trump is in below average health. The average person with Lewy body dementia dies 7-8 years after symptoms start, and they started a while ago in Trump. He may or may not manage to stay alive for the next three and a half years. He is the most unpopular President in U.S. history (rivaled only by himself in his previous term).

He's already done irreparable harm. A defeat in the 2026 midterm elections could mitigate the amount of further harm he can do, and would make it harder for him to carry out a coup ending democracy for good.

Once in place, dictatorial regimes can persist for generations. Look at North Korea.

Democrats really, really want to resolve the crisis facing the United States while coloring within the lines, rather than slicing the Gordian knot. MAGA has no such scruples.

Today, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will be having a summit meeting in Alaska, mostly about ongoing Ukraine War. In a better world, treachery would leave both men, each one of the greatest forces for evil in the entire world in their generation, dead. This is highly unlikely to happen, however. We'll see what does.

The night is pretty dark, although there is plenty of room for it to get darker. I'd like to think that hope can survive it, but I'm not sure.

07 August 2025

The State Of The Union

The State of the Union is bad and the union is weak.

Another day has passed and the tyrants are still in power.

Trump is still issuing unconstitutional and illegal executive orders, which is absolutely infuriating. 

RFK, Jr. is busy trying to make sure that more Americans die by ending medical research and promoting dangerous junk science about vaccines and more. 

Texas is trying to cheat by redistricting for the 2026 election. 

The courts have slowed it down a little, but only so much. The 10th Circuit let Oklahoma ban medical care for transgender children. The Republican packed U.S. Supreme Court in encouraging Trump's illegal conduct. 

Congress has smoothed the edges mildly, but the razor thin and factious Republican majority is full of cowards who aren't brave enough to look out for our country even when they know that what they are voting for is wrong.

The U.S. was a global leader in science, medical research, and higher education. Trump 2.0 is doing it's best to kill that. He's also radically defunding K-12 education and undermining academic freedom and a commitment to truth at all levels.

Biden left Trump a U.S. economy that was in great shape. Trump has ravaged that in less than seven months with tariffs, with a resort to illegal immigration enforcement actions, with tax cuts that hurt the economy, and with a budget so fiscally irresponsible that the credit rating of the U.S. has suffered. His attacks on the independence of the Fed, and the integrity of economic statistics also undermine the U.S. economy.

Trump's budget deprives more than ten million people of access to health care, makes health care more expensive (especially for the working class and for self-employed people) and less available for almost everyone (especially in rural areas), deprives millions of food aid, and will kill tens of millions with cuts in foreign aid.

Wars are won by the side with the most and strongest allies, and Trump has alienated almost all of them. Previously allied countries are cancelling F-35 orders or like Spain, deciding not to make them, because of his actions.

So much harm has been done so fast. No one in all of history has ever done more damage to the United States than Donald Trump.

Is There Hope?

While all of this is grim, and irreparable damage has already been done, the cause is not hopeless. 

The U.S. economy, even for the Trump base, is nowhere near the tatters that Weimar Germany was, which suggests that far right radicalism will have less steam.

The U.S. is a federal system and blue states are actively resisting.

Trump and the GOP did not win a decisive victory in 2024. They secured the thinnest of majorities in the House, thin majorities in some key swing states in the Presidential election, and a thin majority in the Senate with several (but not enough) moderates parting ways with him on key votes in the Senate. A few percentage point shift in public opinion from their November 2024 high water mark could dramatically swing control to the Democrats. In Texas, only 53% of voters backed Republicans for Congress, although gerrymandering provided them a far larger share of the seats, and the proposed Texas gerrymander to remove five Democrats seats could backfire by making many of the Republican seats in the new map much more vulnerable.

Trump's approval rating is at record lows, even compared to his previous term. The Epstein scandal continues to eat away at Trump and is undermining support for him even in his base. His budget is wildly unpopular on a bipartisan basis.

SCOTUS has never had a lower approval rating, is at record or near record lows of support from Democrats and unaffiliated voters, and is more divisive on partisan lines than ever before (as is Congress), and this may mobilize action to pack it or reform it. SCOTUS may not be formally beholden to politics, but it isn't indifferent to its waning legitimacy either.

The markets have responded poorly to Trump's idiotic on again, off again tariff policies and his threats to Fed independence.

Trump has made enemies of the entire medical establishment, almost all of higher education, school teachers everywhere, and the Catholic Church. His open racism and xenophobia may cost Republicans some of the black and Hispanic support that Trump secured in 2024. And, even a fair number of Republican politicians and former members of his administration, when they are retiring or otherwise less vulnerable, have shown little loyalty to him. Trump rules by fear and transactional deals alone.

Swing states like Nevada are suffering badly as a result of his policies. Farmers are suffering. Small business people are getting hurt. Manufacturing is in bad shape despite the fact that boosting this industry was one of his main goals. Inflation, especially for groceries, is surging. The haughty indifference of his cabinet members cost many people their lives in the central Texas floods. Trump's refusal to provide disaster relief has mostly hurt his own voters. His budget did much more harm to red states than the blue states. The more Trump's policies are implemented, the more skeptical conservatives are being forced to admit that they are worse off because of them.

Democrats are decisively over-performing in almost every vacancy election, and elections around the world are swinging decisively to the left in reaction to Trump. If the 2026 midterm elections proceed without too much GOP mischief, they could be a Republican bloodbath with even many lean GOP seats falling to Democratic challengers.

People are in the streets countering ICE abuses and protesting Trump's many abuses.

Trump has somehow finally discovered that Putin is the bad guy in the Ukraine War and is supporting Ukraine again after seriously wavering. European support is also keeping Ukraine in the fight in an ongoing war of attrition where it is holding its own, despite casualties and slight continued losses of its territory. Putin is increasingly worried about Russia breaking apart, and Russia's economy is struggling. Russia's military, especially its ground forces, have seen immense losses with more than a million casualties, a very large share of all of its army's tanks and armored vehicles and artillery forces destroyed, and its navy and air forces bruised (although not absolutely ruined like the army). In another year, it will be worse. Ukrainian attacks deep in Russia are damaging its oil and gas infrastructure, its transportation infrastructure, and its military resources and has forced Russia to worry about attacks far from the front line. Many of Russia's best and brightest young men have emigrated. North Korea is strengthening its military ties with Russia, but its "elite soldiers" are at least as mediocre as the ill-trained Russian conscripts that they are fighting alongside, and the quality of the military supplies that they are providing is, on average, inferior.

Trump is 79 years old and is not in good health, mentally or physically, and he's only getting worse in the face of the stress of actually governing and his advancing age. There is a very real possibility that he could die of natural causes while in office. 

The list of folks who would like him dead is a geopolitical version of Murder on the Orient Express, and the list will only keep growing. He's made enemies of Canada, Denmark, Western Europe, Panama, Mexico, Brazil, Iran, India, China, and islands inhabited only by penguins. For immigrants, small business owners who are ruined by his attempts at mass deportations without due process, people denied disaster relief, people who will lose their hospitals, federal workers and grant recipients who have lost their jobs, transgender soldiers discharged without pensions despite doing nothing wrong, soldiers who have had spouses deported, people and law firms he has targeted for revenge, and women who have had their reproductive health compromised because of his court appointments and policies, it is personal and dire. 

Elon Musk, the richest man in the world and Trump's hatchet man early in his current term, is seeing his companies from Tesla to SpaceX to his AI venture crumble, even though the stock markets haven't fully caught up to how bad the situation is for his businesses, not just now, but in their future prospects in which he is baggage that is dragging them down. Musk has no realistic chance of reversing the drag he is on his businesses, even though he beat back a host of federal government attacks on them in the short run by cozying up to Trump. But, Musk's threat to start a new political party, which would take voter support almost entirely from Republicans, could be devastating for the GOP in 2026 if implemented.

And, one shouldn't forget that the inevitable force of demographic change is against them. New younger voters who first vote in a federal election in 2026 are very decisively left leaning, much less Christian, and much less white. Elderly voters who are the most conservative and the most prone to be white Evangelical Christians will die before then. Two years doesn't make for that much of a difference, but it is one more little weight on the scale against the GOP.

Republicans have made a huge bet on a stupid, vengeful, psychopathic mad man, and if their bet doesn't pay off, they face an existential crisis. They could go the way of the Whigs. Their collapse could be worse than it was in the wake of Herbert Hoover and could last as long.

10 July 2025

Making Enemies

One of the big problems facing the GOP is that it is making enemies fast. Furthermore, Trump relies almost entirely on fear and greed to hold onto power. When that works, it works. But the moment his threats prove hollow and his promises are no longer credible, many of his elite level supporters will turn on him in an instant and disavow him as quickly as he has disavowed a huge share of his minions.

Also, now that Trump has delivered on creating an ultra-conservative U.S. Supreme Court (both due to their abortion politics and for other reasons) and permanent tax cuts for the rich, many supporters who collectively held their noses to back him predominantly for those reasons, no longer need to support him.

* First and foremost, the Roman Catholic Church has started to seriously mobilize against their anti-immigration efforts. They have picked a fight with the largest religious denomination in the nation, led by a Pope who understands American politics at an intuitive level, which includes an important share of their base and of their elites. While White Evangelicals are realistically going to continue to be Trump and the GOP's do or die supporters, they need the political support of conservative white and Hispanic Catholics as well to secure majorities.

So far, the Catholic Church in the U.S. has only taken some baby steps to accommodate a heavily immigrant group of parishioners. But the Pope has an immense capacity to turn up the heat, and Trump has denied himself a key tool to fight that by having the IRS take the position that churches can endorse candidates in our elections from the pulpit.

What happens if Catholic justices on the U.S. Supreme Court, in Congress, and in the Trump Administration are denied communion, or even excommunicated? What happens if Pope Leo declares that Trump and his minions are servants of Satan?

The Papacy hasn't tried anything like that for centuries. But there are precedents for a Pope doing so. If Pope Leo sees Trump acting increasingly like Hitler towards a population that is mostly Catholic, the Pope has plenty of room to escalate and the institutional capacity to coordinate that effort in a way that few other movements in the U.S. can. 

Even if the Pope and his bishops and clergy do nothing more than throw shade at Trump, that's something that could flip a lot of swing voters (and not just Catholic ones).

* Southern voters burned by hurricanes, floods, tornados and other natural disasters and denied the federal disaster relief assistance that they've become accustomed to are another set of enemies who will burn hot to oppose Trump and weren't expected what they got, even if Trump campaigned on it. It isn't even just a matter of the economic substance of it. A big part of Trump's appeal in Red States was the perception that he cared more about people like them than the Democrats did. His indifference to their suffering during disasters undermines that perception.

* Veterans tend to vote conservative, but have received almost no respect, with Trump repeatedly disparaging them, and have seen programs for their benefit cut mercilessly. Some veterans will see this as breaking faith with them and dump him. Veterans disproportionately subscribe to a culture of honor, something utterly foreign to Trump.

* Farmers  and small business owners, especially in rural America and small towns, who have been badly hurt by Trump's trade policies, the deportation of their workforces, the imminent shutdown of their local hospitals, and deep cuts to their community schools are another set of potential enemies.

* Everyone involved in the healthcare industry has been alienated by Medicaid cuts, immense threatened pharmaceutical tariffs, indiscriminate cuts to medical research that weren't telegraphed on the campaign trail, and the utter insanity of RFK, Jr.'s pseudo-scientific approach to public health, even wealthy doctors who benefit from his tax cuts.

* The tax cuts Trump has provided to Wall Street and big business are meaningless if they are losing money, which his disastrous trade policy, threats to the independence of the Fed, and the damages he has done to the value of the dollar and the credit rating of the United States has done.

* Trump has flipped Elon Musk from being "co-President" to his enemy. The richest man in the world is a formidable foe, and is the leader of the coalition of tech billionaires that backed Trump. Musk's proposed "American Party" could also split the conservative vote and hand victory to Democrats in many races.

* Non-MAGA smart conservatives from federal judges, to think tank figures and professors, to older generation Republican leaders, to pundits, to military officers, are not keen on some of the directions Trump is taking, such as disregard for rule of law, civility and respect, and his anti-intellectualism, even if they like many of the changes he has made in substance.

* Federal employees are the source of every federal elected official's power. And, Trump has done everything he can to purge civil servants who won't be loyal to him and to cow those who are left with fear. But he's shed a lot of competent seasoned officials, made life very hard for those who are left, and betrayed the longstanding trust of almost every federal employee. So undermined, the federal government is going to be a lot less competent and effective, and federal employees will be looking for passive-aggressive ways to undermine him at every turn. no matter how hard he tries to assert control. And, a large percentage of federal employees who have abruptly seen their secure, high prestige futures shattered are now on a singular mission to use their insider knowledge and connections to fight him with all of their being.

* Educators from every school and higher educational institution in the country now see Trump and the GOP as their unequivocal enemies. While this was never an industry that strongly backed the GOP before, their long standing efforts to be neutral towards the GOP have been shattered now that the GOP has declared outright war on all of them. These institutions are strong not only in their own right, but also because they have a carefully cultivated and nurtured alumni base who will be willing to go to bat for them that includes many powerful, rich, and influential people.

08 July 2025

Why Is David Brooks Wrong About Why People Admire Donald Trump?

Brooks On Why People Admire Trump

David Brooks, a pundit who also writes for the New York Times, who is a former conservative who later in his career transitioned to being a moderate, has a new article today in the Atlantic magazine, entitled "Why Do So Many People Think That Trump Is Good?" that is also an engagement with the life work of philosopher Alasdair MacIntyre, who recently passed in May at the age of 94.

MacIntyre argued that from at least the time of the classical period, communities ("a dense network of faily, tribe, city, and nation") created duties and expectations about how to live your life and act morally according to your social role ("soldier, farmers, merchants" and mothers), which people generally accepted and made it their life's work to live up to as well as you could. Judaism, Christianity and Islam tweaked these duties and expectations to give greater weight to compassion and humility, but through the Middle Ages maintained the same social structure in which morality and your duties in life were societally imposed. The wars of religion at the end of the Middle Ages convinced people that maybe religion was not the best thing to organize societies upon and in reaction to that came the Enlightenment period of the 18th century centered upon reason and science, and relegated morality to a matter of individual choice.

MacIntyre argued that this produced a decline in shared morality, although Brooks himself would put this moment in the mid-1960s. The narrative continues with Nietzsche famously saying that "God is dead" because we'd killed him and made ourselves our own gods. In this narrative, Hilter, Lenin, and Mao fill that moral vacuum with narcissism, fanaticism, and authoritarianism, "and the cure turned out to be worse than the disease."

At this point it becomes less clear whether it is MacIntyre or Brooks talking. But the two solutions to a moral vacuum that Brooks presents are coercion or manipulation. Either coerce others to believe what you believe, e.g., with corporate DEI, or manipulate people with the kind of lies and sleaze that Trump and Fox News are known for utilizing. The battle of these methods in the 1980s and 1990s "looks like a golden age of peace and tranquility compared to today", Brooks argues, because in the last thirty years people have sought righteousness instead through their political identities and politics permeates everything.

Without a firm universal ground in "the virtues that are practical tools for leading a good life: honesty, fidelity, compassion, other-centeredness", "People are rendered anxious and fragile" and without a moral foundation, they "fall apart when setbacks come."

He sees Trump as a man "who doesn't even try to speak the language of morality", doesn't care about weakening "our shared moral norms" with his example, speaks a language of preference "I want" and a language of power "I have the leverage", and a language of self, of gains of acquisition, of benefitting himself, instead.

Brooks argues, within the framework of MacIntyre's philosophy that Trump is "just an exaggerated version of the kind of person modern society was designed to create." He also argues (inaccurately, in my view) that if Trump was on their team, most Democrats would like him too, and that you're lying to yourself if you deny it.

Brooks argues that pluralism is the answer to to resolving the tension created by incommensurate values, but that we need to recalibrate it to make people "more willing to sacrifice some freedom of autonomy for the sake of the larger community" and to provide rigorous moral education to the next generation (which sounds a lot like the coercion he condemned earlier in his argument).

Why Is Brooks Wrong?

I don't think this rings true, and find better answers in psychology and economics than in philosophy, which I've always considered something of a dead end and historical curiosity that recalls long since superseded proto-science, than something of real value today as anything more than intellectual history.

In my view, Trump, a psychopath rich in "dark triad" traits, is an archetypical figure familiar to observers of politics and public affairs and history since classical times, if not earlier, who is a constant threat to every organization from families to empires. There is nothing novel or surprising about him, himself. 

Demagogues were something that the Founders of the United States, at the pinnacle of the Enlightenment, worried about. Democracy and the Bill of Rights were their answer to the narcissistic mad kings and equally dark leaders of established religions with whom they were very familiar, both from the 18th century world and from the history that they knew from the classical era through the Middle Ages. The Founders were familiar with Roman Emperor Nero. Machiavelli in "The Prince" wrote about how dark triad tactics might be advisable to a leader seeking to gain power for his people. They were intimately familiar with the tyrants of British history, right up through King George. The believed that people whose rights were guarded by law would not vote for such scoundrels. Lest we forget, George R. R. Martin, in his Game of Thrones series, a fantasy series that draws heavily on the War of the Roses, history that was much more fresh in the minds of the Founders, reminds us of what that was like and why it is best avoided.

It wasn't a bad plan. 

The Constitution adopted in 1789 lasted without an insurmountable constitutional crisis for 72 years, when Civil War broke out. After the crisis over slavery that manifested in the Civil War was overcome in 4 years of brutal deadly fighting (that still leave the nation deeply divided) was over, followed a 12 year Reconstruction period, and in turn followed by 77 years or so of de jure segregation but a fragile peace. We then went on to have another 70 years or so of the constitution working more or less as intended. 

We are in the midst of another constitutional crisis now, which their plan may or may not be good enough to overcome. 

The United States of America, including its 13 years before the current constitution was adopted, is 249 years old, making it the oldest fully non-hereditary democratic governmental regimes still in existence on the scale of a large nation. But the Founders, as one of the first countries to have a full fledged democratic Republic at a large national scale, lacked the historical experience or foresight to plan for every potential eventuality and their plan is now clearly not the optimal design, although it may be that our Republic's woes are such that no formal constitution would have been sufficient to prevent them.

The times and places in history where tyrants arose also doesn't match up. MacIntyre's framework suggests that we should have seen a breakdown in a sense of duty and morality in the Enlightenment. But we didn't see this happen across the board. Yes, the moral divide in the U.S. may be traceable to the moral fight over slavery that emerged in the Enlightenment. But, this was not a general, individualized loss of community norms, it was a divide that arose between two coherent and vital cultures, that of the slaveholding South on one side, and of the abolitionist North on the other, sustained, as much as anything, by the perceived economic needs of each region, with clergy serving of cheerleaders of each side and framing these economic imperatives with moral justifications.

Why did we get Hitler in Weimar Germany, and Lenin in Russia, while France, England, and the United States were not similarly afflicted?

Hitler is the clearest example. Germany's defeat in World War I, the harsh terms of the Treaty of Versailles, hyperinflation, and economic collapse, radicalized many Germans, making them crave an authoritarian strong man to save them, and causing them to abandon the luxuries of caring for their fellow man whom they saw as their competitors, or as a drag on their society's ability to overcome the malaise that they faced.

Similar economic forces drive American politics today. After a couple of decades of remarkable shared prosperity, economic growth, which make the liberalism and the care for their fellow man of the Civil Rights movement possible, ceased to be shared starting sometime around the early 1970s. Since then, mostly educated, urban elites have captured almost all of the economy's economic growth for a half century, while less educated folk in rural areas and small towns have seen their economic prospects stagnate. The Civil Rights movement improved the economic lot of non-whites and women. New immigration laws welcomed foreigners. Free trade allowed manufacturing to be offshored to markets with lower wages, fewer labor protections, and weaker environmental laws. The U.S. de-industrialized and the Rust Belt came into being. Free trade rules, environmental rules, protections for unions, automation, birth control and abortion have, in their view, destroyed an economy fueled by domestic manufacturing and fossil fuels, in which men received good pay that made them heads of their families.

Half a century later, counties that vote blue have more than double the per capita GDP of those that vote red. Red America has captured almost none of the economic growth of the last half century, while Blue America is more prosperous than almost any other place on Earth. Prosperous Blue America extended its inclusive shared affluence mindset to allow the LGBT community to live publicly and in dignity, and to make it safe to be openly secular. 

Straight white Christian men in Red America without much education have seen every other demographic but them improve their lot in the last fifty years, while they have seen almost no improvement in their real wages, increased unemployment, and an inability to maintain stable and solid marriages and families. In relative terms, they seem themselves, and the rural and small town communities that they live in, as the losers, and see the economy as a zero sum game in which non-whites, foreigners, and women have taken what was theirs, and in which atheists and gays have ripped apart the moral framework that held their parents and grandparents families together. They want to throw out everything that they see as having driven their half century of eroded status with no end in sight, and return to the days when their relative status was vastly greater, no matter how unfair that may seem to everyone else. 

They are so frustrated over this sustained defeat that they are willing to turn to an indiscriminate authoritarian who breaks the rules that they see as having held them back, and are even willing to resort to violence, to get it. Their concerns about good character and process values and fair play have dissolved in the face of falling life expectancies, deaths of despair, regular unemployment, disability from the manual work that they are qualified to do with the economy doesn't need anymore to same extent, and their inability to hold onto wives and children that really arises not from an immoral society but from their own failures of economic providers. Faced with their conditions, they want to burn the system down and start over from new foundations that elevate their relative socio-economic standing.

Not everyone who votes for Trump has experienced this, and not everyone in red counties and red states has supported him. Some have supported Republicans simply out of thoughtless, long ingrained habit, or because they think that they are among the rich who will benefit from tax cuts. But peer pressure from enough people who matter in their little small town and rural communities, and in the working class underworld of Blue America, have made their political views (stripped of any reasoning behind them) normative in their communities, won over their wives, and caused religious congregation to which these men have been drawn because they are saying what these men want to hear to thrive and reinforce these men's views.

What we see today is more a product of capitalism, appropriately regulated but with only modest redistribution, doing what it does naturally: increasing GDP as fast as it can, while leaving the productive better off than the less productive who are worse off. But capitalism has done its thing to an extent greater than the political system is willing to bear, bringing us to a breaking point. 

It's worse in the U.S. because we have done less to cushion the blow for those who are less productive either by finding them places in the new economy or redistributing wealth and creating a stronger social safety net (in part, because racism has left the U.S. with a weaker sense of solidarity). But the same pressures are present in Europe, with somewhat different targets to fit local changes over the last half century, and are strongest in the places that are economically struggling.

Democrats Are Predominantly More Correct Than Republicans

The main sin that the Democrats have committed is not taking seriously enough the grievances of the working class, especially working class white Christian men, who have not shared in the improvement in relative or absolute prosperity that much of the rest of the nation has enjoyed, and who are lashing out at people they see as competitors or as people undermining morality, when neither of these things is the real problem. 

Despite adopting many policies that substantively benefit Red America more than their own base, they didn't go quite far enough, and left this constituency economically struggling, and equally importantly, feeling like they didn't matter and were neglected.

Progressives gets this and have tried to secure radical economic reforms to address this problem, so they don't have to resort to the injustices towards innocents that Trump has inflamed his supporters to think they want. But progressives do not make up a majority of the American public, and the bigger tent necessary to secure the majorities needed to reach a position of power where change can be enacted, and a constitutional framework and political system that tends to create gridlock and too strongly defends the status quo, has thwarted their efforts to secure more than incremental change, which has not been enough. Sometimes the frustration of progressives over their insufficient clout and numbers to achieve the full measure of their goals in a system that already makes it too hard to do so, when they rightfully believe that their proposals are urgently needed to keep far right tendencies at bay and secure economic justice, even boil over into claims that Democrats are no different than Republicans, since both are controlled by big business, despite the fact that this just undermines their own cause.

Contrary to Brooks' assertion, Democrats wouldn't fall for a Trump. They aren't desperate in the way that the MAGA Republican base is, and so they are happy to purge people like him from their ranks when they are caught. The Democratic Party isn't full of criminals, and is much less corrupt than the Republican Party which has had vastly more criminals and is now openly corrupt. 

Democrats and progressives are right that a manufacturing based fossil fuel economy isn't coming back, and that even if manufacturing did come back that 21st century manufacturing is so automated and skill intensive for most jobs, and so unproductive and low paying for others, that it wouldn't restore the economy and related societal consequences that flowed from it anyway.

Democrats are right that the rich aren't taxed enough, although they are mistaken that unions are a leading cause of the shared prosperity benefits that came from a tight labor market, rather than a symptom of that tight labor market that more efficiently utilized economic power that workers already had.

The Democratic effort to create working class clean economy jobs was the right idea, but was too little, too late.

Republicans are wrong in thinking that putting the Ten Commandments in schools, embracing religion, restricting abortion and birth control, making it legally harder to divorce, and squashing gay rights and transgender rights will restore morality and strengthen working class families.

Republicans are wrong in thinking that economics is a zero sum game, in which gains for non-whites, women, educated people, and immigrants, and imports leave white native born men without higher education, their communities, and the U.S. economy, generally, worse off.

Republicans are wrong in thinking that taxes and government spending are bad for the economy or bad for them. They are particularly wrong in thinking that reducing social safety net spending which disproportionately benefits them, will leave them better off, or that tax cuts for the wealthy, big businesses, and people with high incomes weaken the economy or leave them worse off. They have also forgotten (or never knew) that the era they seek to return to "when America was great" was characterized by high taxes and lots of government spending (as well as a very militant union movement).

Republicans are wrong in thinking that they don't benefit from the world order that foreign aid spending and our historical military alliances supported, and are a waste of money, and in thinking about military strength purely in terms of U.S. military might standing alone when wars are almost always won by the side with the most allies and "soft power."

But It Takes More Than Facts And Logic To Change Minds

Of course, as we've learned very painfully, mere facts and logic are enough enough to change political views, and in particular, are not enough to change the political views of a base that holds those views precisely because it has not prospered in an economy based upon knowledge and intellectual ability, and has had wealthy, amoral elites manipulate the information that has been imparted to them.

People's political identities are fundamentally social and are deeply shaped by economics and the information, however untrue it may be, that they have chosen to listen to when forming their world views (something that is itself influenced by their economic circumstances, as well as their ancestral culture).

You have to quash fountains of disinformation and fact resistance that have been gradually taking hold for decades. You have to either get people to admit that they have been conned, or find a way for people to change their political views that allows them to deny that this has happened. You have to make their views uncomfortable for them to hold in their own personal lives, but must do so in circumstances where converting from them is less painful than retreating into their denial with likeminded victims of the con. You have to be able to show them in terms that they understand and believe that your proposals are better than MAGA's and to back that up with an ability to produce tangible results for them. You have to address their needs and hardships, and not merely show that the other side is worse.

Those are tall orders, and it isn't clear that Democrats are up to the challenge. 

Democrats best hope is really that the Republicans, at a time when they are undeniably in complete control, are making the lives of the MAGA base tangibly worse, or convince the MAGA base that this is imminently about to happen, and to undermine any hope that they have that burning everything down will lead to a future that leaves them better off in relative terms, if not in absolute terms. Trump and his allies, as they attempt to govern in a purely ideological manner, are their own worst enemies here.

The GOP's hold on Congress is tenuous. In 2026, flipping 4 seats out of a 53 GOP seats would flip the Senate, and flipping 3 seats out of 220 GOP seats in the House (and reclaiming three currently vacant democratic seats in vacancy elections) would flip the House. Trump is the least popular President since Trump, and many of his particular policies, including his recently passed budget, are wildly unpopular with voters. The public is no fan of Congress and a lot of Republicans in Congress have voted for measures that are unpopular with the people who elected them (even though the final budget bill retreated from many of Trump's demands) and will actively hurt the people who elected them. Some of the gerrymandering that influenced the results of the 2024 election will also be remedied in 2026. Elon Musk's proposal to create a new "American Party", even if it wasn't terribly successful, would split the conservative vote in a way that could benefit Democrats immensely. The U.S. Supreme Court has also never had less popular support in the history of modern polling, and conservative voters no longer need to support Trump and the GOP to keep in that way (or to have their tax cuts for corporations and the rich made permanent).

It is unlikely that Republicans will hold both Houses of Congress in the 2026 election. They will probably lose control of the House and at least lose ground in the Senate, barring a major escalation in the steps that Trump has tried to take to erode democracy in the last sixteen months, with lukewarm but significant support from the Supreme Court's conservative supermajority which has significantly impaired the ability of other federal courts to restrain Trump.

Time will tell how it turns out in the midst of the constant political chaos and societal unrest that Trump have actively stoked.

Left leaning forces don't have to keep MAGA's dictatorial power grab at bay forever. The MAGA base is in demographic decline. The Democratic base is growing. If the left can endure this crisis and thwart full on totalitarianism until Trump is dead and his MAGA agenda has been discredited by its own failures severely enough, for enough years, the crisis will be overcome and the Republic can be saved. It may be bruised, battered, and irrevocably harmed in many ways, but it would not be beyond all saving. 

But history is also not without precedents, like Iran, Afghanistan, and North Korea, where progress is dramatically reversed when totalitarians succeed, and this backward state continues for forty years or more with minimal progress. And, unlike the case of people subject to the Axis regimes in World War II, no other country or alliance will be coming to rescue us, because we are too big and too militarily mighty. Another civil war might save us if that happens, but that would be a horrible price to pay.

03 July 2025

The GOP Budget In Charts

The Republican budget passed today passed the House initially by 215-214, passed the Senate in a 51-50 VP tie breaking vote, and passed the House the second time around by 218-214 with no amendments from the Senate version (which was slightly better than the original House version, mostly because bad non-budgetary riders were stripped from the bill). These razor thin majorities, however, have made immense changes to U.S. tax laws and federal spending that are unrivaled since the War on Poverty during LBJ's administration.

This will do irreparable harm in the next couple of years, at least, disproportionately suffered by Republican controlled areas and Republican voters, and the bill's provisions are wildly unpopular with the American public.

The big question is whether this bill, along with Trump's other horrible steps in governing, will lead to a catastrophic defeat for Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections as backlash, or whether the usual partisan tendencies will remain unchanged. Have Republicans committed political suicide? Or will the MAGA cult remain strong after encountering the "find out" part of the FAFO adventure.

I can't imagine how any decent person could sleep at night backing this proposal, and struggle to discern any values other than massively transferring wealth from the poor to benefit the rich, are served by it. But Republicans never cease to surprise me.

The big messages about the budget are that: 

(1) the tax cuts in Trump's budget are driving up the national debt immensely (more than any other bill in the Biden or Trump Administrations by a lot) and will drive up interest payments as a drain on tax revenues, 

(2) the number of people without health insurance will grow from about 25 million (out of a U.S. population of about 340 million) to more than 35 million due mostly to Medicaid changes and there will be a massive disinvestment in health care, 

(3) student loan payments for new college graduates will soar, 

(4) the clean energy investments that are eliminated will mostly hurt people in Republican Congressional districts, 

(5) the bottom 20% are much worse off, the next 20% break even very rich are much better off, while the poor are much worse off, the next 59% are modestly better off, and the top 1% and big businesses are vastly better off, and

(6) any improvements to economic growth are exceedingly small.

One key impact that the charts don't note is that many hundreds of rural hospitals (maybe more than a thousand), almost all in Republican dominated areas, will close. 

It also doesn't really capture how deep cuts to federal spending programs will be, except for defense and funds to carry out mass deportations which get big budget boosts.

The charts via the New York Times:

10 April 2025

Bingo Cards

What unusual or exceptional events could happen in this administration (i.e. "what's on my Bingo Card")?

1. The Trump Administration could decide to deliberately default on the federal debt (perhaps only if owed to selective perceived enemies).

2. The U.S. Supreme Court could adopt the President's fringe unitary executive theory.

3. The U.S. Supreme Court could affirm the validity of the President's Alien Enemy Act declaration, perhaps by holding that it is non-justiciable.

4. The U.S. Supreme Court could affirm a contemplated Insurrection Act declaration, perhaps by holding that it is non-justiciable.

5. The U.S. Supreme Court could hold that the impoundment act in unconstitutional.

6. Congress could repeal Trump's authority to impose tariffs.

7. Trump could die of natural causes.

8. Trump could be assassinated.

9. Other leading Trump administration officials could be assassinated.

10. The U.S. Supreme Court could declare Trump's tariffs to be illegal or invalid under a variety of legal theories.

11. The Republican Party could suffer a crushing defeat in the 2026 elections.

12. The 2026 elections could be cancelled or postponed.

13. Elon Musk could lose his billionaire status after having been the richest man in the world this year.

14. China could invade Taiwan.

15. China could start providing arms to Russia (it already seems to have provided 150 mercenaries).

16. Volcanos and earthquakes could enter a sustained period of high activity.

17. Martial law could be declared.

18. There could be a military coup attempt in the U.S.

19. There could be an unprecedented wave of farm bankruptcies.

20. A trade war with China and/or an invasion of Taiwan could bankrupt Apple.

21. A serious Ebola-class foreign pathogen could lead to a U.S. outbreak.

22. There is a Kent State-like incident of anti-Trump protesters being killed.

23. The U.S. Supreme Court upholds state laws making it illegal to be transgender.

24. Southern Florida experiences Hurricane Katrina-class flooding that leads to permanent large population reductions in some areas.

25. The U.S. invades Mexico militarily over Mexican objections leading to military clashes with Mexico.

26. The U.S. invades Greenland triggering a NATO response.

27. There is a terrorist attack on Trump's proposed military parade in D.C.

28. Marsupial tigers are revived.

29. Insider trading in Trump's inner circle is definitively established and not prosecuted.

30. Trump gets divorced again.

31. Trump declares (falsely) on national TV that aliens are real and that the U.S. government has been in contact with them.

32. The Smithsonian Museum is mostly shut down and its collections are destroyed.

33. Trump sponsors new Confederate monuments in Washington D.C.

34. The U.S. leaves NATO.

35. The 2028 election is cancelled.

02 April 2025

After The Honeymoon

So, we are a little more than ten weeks into Trump 2.0 and Trump's "honeymoon period" is pretty much over.

It was definitely a "shock and awe" approach that involved a manic frenzy of efforts to shut down already approved Congressional funds, shut down Congressionally established government agencies, lay off employees without a right to do so, unilaterally disavow collective bargaining agreements with unions that are already in place, to invoke wartime immigration laws when we aren't in a war, to use a law that his sister as a federal judge declared unconstitutional to revoke the visas of legal immigrants, to unconstitutionally claim that birthright citizenship doesn't apply to children of illegal immigrants, to give illegal access to government protected confidential data to Elon Musk who is illegally leading a department not authorized by Congress without Senate approval, and more and more and more.

He's basically declared war on Greenland (and by extension Denmark and NATO), Canada, and Panama. He's stupidly tried to rename the Gulf of Mexico and Denali mountain in Alaska. He's banned the Associated Press from White House press events.

Trump is trying to ban "DEI" in absurd ways not authorized by law in the federal government, among every school and college in the U.S., and by bullying private companies and law firms. He's stripped references to women and minorities from government websites. He is engaged in personal vendettas with large law firms that he has no right to launch. He has pardoned the January 6 criminals, many of whom have promptly gone out and committed more crimes or gotten themselves killed. He has taken Russia's side, to a great extent, in the Ukraine War (including a U.N. vote on the legality of Russia's invasion of Ukraine). He has launched a trade war with the entire world, violating a trade treaty with Mexico and Canada that he himself negotiated. He has disregarded at least two court orders pushing us into a constitutional crisis and is trying to invoke the "state secrets doctrine" where it does not apply to cover up one of those cases.

He has created havoc and greatly degraded the functioning of almost every federal government agency. His national security team has inadvertently leaked confidential attack plans to a journalist and one other person who wasn't supposed to have access.

Thirteen countries have issued travel advisories for the U.S., and interruptions of university grants and scientific grants and illegal revocation of student visas is irrevocably destroying long term scientific research projects, undermining a generation of scientists, and undermining the status of the U.S. as a leading provider of quality higher education.

Tesla, a major recipient of government funds, has seen its sales tank worldwide because Musk endorses Nazis and his Cybertruck's quality is awful, so bad that almost all of them have been recalled (the 8th recall so far for them) and its deaths per passenger mile are greater than the Ford Pinto. All of the world, Teslas and their dealers are the subject to protests and vandalism. Insurance companies won't insure Cybertrucks anymore. Musk himself has lost hundreds of billions of dollars of personal wealth as a result. Countries across the world are also ending contracts with his Starlink system. And, Musk's SpaceX company has had high profile exploding rocket failures. Trump made an illegal Tesla ad in front of the White House to bail out his "co-President."

The stock market is crashing. Lockheed Martin may be losing large numbers of F-35 sales now that Trump has changed geopolitical sides (over the opposition over even about 70% of Republicans as well as everyone else). American liquor companies are laying off workers because Canada has boycotted them. Farmers across the nation are in crisis as Trump's anti-immigrant efforts make headlines keeping people away from work and as funds for programs for them are frozen and tariffs are destroying their export sales and making things that they import more expensive.

While he had to withdraw a handful of appointments, almost all of his executive branch appointees who have faced Senate confirmation have been approved, including a great many who are patently unqualified to do their jobs and actively want to undermine the laws of the United States government that they are charged with carrying out.

Scores of lawsuits have been filed to enjoin his Executive Orders which are frequently unconstitutional or unauthorized by the relevant laws or contrary to existing laws. Many of those lawsuits have been successful at the preliminary stage.

Congress has been pretty passive. Republicans are mostly silent even though many do not like what Trump is doing, and Democrats have been largely ineffectual.

Trump's approval rates have fallen and are net negative and lower than any President other than himself in his first term at this point in his term of office. While Republicans still approve strongly of him, 46% of independents strongly disapprove of him and another 8-11% or so disapprove, but not "strongly." Democrats, of course, almost unanimously strongly disapprove.

One Democrat in a Pennsylvania special election won a seat that has been held by Republicans for decades by large margins. Two vacancy elections in Florida for Congressional seats saw the GOP margin of victory dramatically reduced. Despite dumping more than $20 million of Musk's personal funds and money from Musk companies into a Wisconsin Supreme Court race, much of its for outright bribes to vote his way, his candidate lost to a liberal by about ten percentage points.

Needless to say, Trump, his press secretary, and his cabinet members are spewing absurd and outrageous lies with no foundation in the truth at all many times a day as justification for policies that make no sense.

At this point the questions are whether and to what extent the wildly destructive actions of Trump 2.0 can be stopped, and if so how, whether democratic government will continue in the United States, and if this eventually ends, what will it take to recover from and deal with all of the damage that Trump has done.

Trump has gone much farther than many of his supporters believed that he would. If free and fair Congressional elections are held in 2026, there is a good chance that the GOP could lose its thin majorities in the House and in the Senate, and its coalitions there are already starting to fray.