28 September 2007

Iowa 2008

There are four months until the Iowa Caucuses, give or take. The latest Strategic Vision, LLC poll:

600 Likely GOP Caucus Goers:
* Mitt Romney 30%
* Rudy Giuliani 17% (rising)
* Fred Thompson 13% (falling)
* Mike Huckabee 8%
* John McCain 6% (falling)
* Undecided 13%

"No other Republican candidate received more than 5 percent[.]"

600 Likely Democratic Caucus Goers:
* Hillary Clinton 24% (rising)
* John Edwards 22% (falling)
* Barack Obama 21%
* Bill Richardson 13%
* Undecided 14%

"No other candidate received more than 4 percent[.]"

On the Democratic side, delegates are allocated proportionately in each Congressional District among those receiving at least 15% support.

Hat Tip to Tancredo Watch.

And on the sidebar:

"Among Republicans, 53 percent said they favored a withdrawal from Iraq in the next six months, and 84 percent of Democrats agreed."


Jon W. said...

The national polls I've seen (such as CNN) show Edwards in third, clearly behind Clinton and Obama, whereas these numbers show a three-way tie. On the Republican side, Romney is fourth, possibly tied for third with McCain; these numbers put him clearly in the lead.

Why is Iowa so different? Will an Iowa win mean anything if it's not representative?

Andrew Oh-Willeke said...

I suspect that Iowa is a better predictor than national polls right now, because Iowa is paying more attention.