28 September 2007

Iowa 2008

There are four months until the Iowa Caucuses, give or take. The latest Strategic Vision, LLC poll:

600 Likely GOP Caucus Goers:
* Mitt Romney 30%
* Rudy Giuliani 17% (rising)
* Fred Thompson 13% (falling)
* Mike Huckabee 8%
* John McCain 6% (falling)
* Undecided 13%

"No other Republican candidate received more than 5 percent[.]"

600 Likely Democratic Caucus Goers:
* Hillary Clinton 24% (rising)
* John Edwards 22% (falling)
* Barack Obama 21%
* Bill Richardson 13%
* Undecided 14%

"No other candidate received more than 4 percent[.]"

On the Democratic side, delegates are allocated proportionately in each Congressional District among those receiving at least 15% support.

Hat Tip to Tancredo Watch.

And on the sidebar:

"Among Republicans, 53 percent said they favored a withdrawal from Iraq in the next six months, and 84 percent of Democrats agreed."

2 comments:

Jon W. said...

The national polls I've seen (such as CNN) show Edwards in third, clearly behind Clinton and Obama, whereas these numbers show a three-way tie. On the Republican side, Romney is fourth, possibly tied for third with McCain; these numbers put him clearly in the lead.

Why is Iowa so different? Will an Iowa win mean anything if it's not representative?

Andrew Oh-Willeke said...

I suspect that Iowa is a better predictor than national polls right now, because Iowa is paying more attention.