There are four months until the Iowa Caucuses, give or take. The latest Strategic Vision, LLC poll:
600 Likely GOP Caucus Goers:
* Mitt Romney 30%
* Rudy Giuliani 17% (rising)
* Fred Thompson 13% (falling)
* Mike Huckabee 8%
* John McCain 6% (falling)
* Undecided 13%
"No other Republican candidate received more than 5 percent[.]"
600 Likely Democratic Caucus Goers:
* Hillary Clinton 24% (rising)
* John Edwards 22% (falling)
* Barack Obama 21%
* Bill Richardson 13%
* Undecided 14%
"No other candidate received more than 4 percent[.]"
On the Democratic side, delegates are allocated proportionately in each Congressional District among those receiving at least 15% support.
Hat Tip to Tancredo Watch.
And on the sidebar:
"Among Republicans, 53 percent said they favored a withdrawal from Iraq in the next six months, and 84 percent of Democrats agreed."
2 comments:
The national polls I've seen (such as CNN) show Edwards in third, clearly behind Clinton and Obama, whereas these numbers show a three-way tie. On the Republican side, Romney is fourth, possibly tied for third with McCain; these numbers put him clearly in the lead.
Why is Iowa so different? Will an Iowa win mean anything if it's not representative?
I suspect that Iowa is a better predictor than national polls right now, because Iowa is paying more attention.
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