McCain's Mixed Performance

For a front runner, McCain doesn't have a very broadbased backing. Let's recall how he's done so far:

State (Rank in State) Vote Percentage

Alabama (2) 37%
Alaska (4) 16%
Arizona (1) 47%
Arkansas (2) 20%
California (1) 42%
Colorado (2) 19%
Connecticut (1) 52%
Delaware (1) 45%
Florida (1) 36%
Georgia (2) 32%
Illinois (1) 47%
Iowa (4) 13%
Kansas (2) 24%
Louisiana (2) 42%
Maine (2) 21%
Massachusetts (2) 41%
Michigan (2) 30%
Minnesota (2) 22%
Missouri (1) 33%
Montana (3) 22%
Nevada (3) 13%
New Hampshire (1) 37%
New Jersey (1) 55%
New York (1) 51%
North Dakota (2) 23%
Oklahoma (1) 37%
South Carolina (1) 33%
Tennessee (2) 32%
Utah (2) 5%
Washington (1) 26%
West Virginia (3) 1%
Wyoming (tied for 4) 0%

In six states so far, McCain was not in the top two. McCain has broken 50% support in just three states, all of which are likely to back a Democrat in November. Of the six additional states where his support was in the 40s, only two, Arizona and Louisiana are likely to back him in November. This is not a good way to produce good red state activism on behalf of the Republican nominee.

In contrast, the only state in which Obama and Clinton have not shared the top two slots is Iowa, where Clinton was edged out of second place by Edwards by a single percentage point. Obama has never done worse in any state than 26%, while Clinton has never done worse in any state than 17%, and both have secured hefty majorities in a number of states.