19 February 2008

Presidential Race Check In

Obama (24)

Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin (also the Virgin Islands)

Clinton (13)

Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida (no delegates), Massachusetts, Michigan (no delegates and no other major candidate on ballot), Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee (also American Samoa)

Not Yet Voted (14)

Favor Obama (6): Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, Wyoming (also Democrats Abroad)

Favor Clinton (5): Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virigina

Hard to Call (3): Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont (also Puerto Rico)

Analysis

Of course, since the Democratic nomination is not decided on a winner take all basis, and also involves superdelegates and Congressional District level delegate allocations, simply winning states doesn't tell the whole story.

But, Obama leads in states won, in total delegates and in pledged delegates at this point, as well as in fund raising, in national opinion polls, in the popular vote so far, and in most state polling in a general election poll head to head against John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee. Obama has frequently secured greater margins of victory than Clinton in the states he has won, and has proved more popular with independent voters. Obama has also won ten straight states in a row, and has never come out worse than second place in a contest. The online gambling forums favor Obama strongly.

Clinton, in contrast, leads only in superdelegates, with about half of all superdelegates committed at this point and another 400 or so uncommitted. Clinton came in third place in Iowa behind Obama and Edwards, and has come in first or second place in all other races. Clinton last won a race on Super Tuesday on February 5.

Edwards, who has since dropped out of the race, is believed to favor Obama, which could win Obama another 26 Edwards delegates.

While the Democratic race will almost certainly be decided by superdelegates unless a candidate withdraws, superdelegates are not expected to buck a candidate with an unequivocal lead by other measures.

All eyes are now on Texas, which has already started early voting. One poll showed Obama behind by two percentage points in that state, while another showed him behind by five percentage points. But, Obama has frequently exceeded the expectations set by polls, and two more wins today won't hurt his recent surge in the polls in Texas.

An Obama win in Texas would be a serious blow for the Clinton campaign. Obama wins in Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont might very well finish Clinton as a viable candidate, despite her large number of accrued delegates. A win for Clinton in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont on March 4, in contrast, particularly if the margins of victory in Ohio and Texas were convincing, would reinvigorate her campaign.

3 comments:

Jon W. said...

Durbin and Schumer, supporting their respective fellow senators, spent a lot of time on Meet the Press discussing Florida and Michigan. Clinton is singing a much different tune after her wins than she was before the primaries. If the race is within the margin of superdelegates, that could still be a contentious issue. Obama won't accept the vote as it stands, there may not be time for new primaries, and Clinton won't accept caucuses.

mile high delphi said...

Thanks for checking in, I'm using a new econometric model that I built last month.

Andrew Oh-Willeke said...

I also neglected to mention Guam whose primary/caucus is coming up in the near future.