Russian Casualties Per U.S. DOD And Other Updates

The initial Russian invasion force in Ukraine was about 150,000. About half of them have been killed or wounded during the five and a half months of the war to date according to the U.S. Department of Defense yesterday (an estimate almost twice as high as the 41,500 estimated by the Ukrainian Department of Defense as of August 4, 2022).

Between 70,000 and 80,000 Russians have been killed or wounded during the war in Ukraine, Colin Kahl, Defense Department undersecretary for policy, said during an on-camera briefing at the Pentagon on Monday.

“I think it’s safe to suggest that the Russians have probably taken 70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months. Now that is a combination of killed in action and wounded in action, that number might be a little lower, little higher, but I think that’s kind of in the ballpark,” Kahl said.

Kahl said that number of casualties from Russian forces is “remarkable” considering Russia has “achieved none of Vladimir Putin’s objectives” since invading Ukraine at the end of February.

“The Ukrainian morale and will to fight is unquestioned, and much higher I think than the average will to fight on the Russian side, so I think that gives the Ukrainians a significant advantage,” Kahl added.

Via CNN. 

Either way, it is clear that Russia has taken heavy losses in personnel and in equipment in the five and a half month war, and that Russia continues to take additional casualties incrementally, every day. Russia's conventional war fighting ability in Europe is greatly compromised.

There continues to be no satisfactory explanation for the utter failure of Russia to gain air superiority despite a Russian air force with advanced fighter and bomber aircraft and officially claimed numbers of aircraft that vastly overwhelm Ukraine's.

Russia has made some territorial gains in the East and Southeast, effectively creating a land bridge of Crimea and taking the far northeast of Ukraine, but much of this Ukrainian territory had already been controlled since 2014 (marked with diagonal lines in the map below).

This isn't unquestionably secure either. Russia's naval control over the Black Sea has been impaired, and there were explosions yesterday at an ammunition dump at a Crimean airbase and there was another strike on a rail line near Crimea.

Russian control of the most pro-Russian areas of Ukraine also solidifies pro-Western political forces within Ukraine. 

The Ukraine war has pushed Finland and Sweden into NATO. And, Russia continues to face unprecedented international sanctions even as Ukraine has finally today started to export its grain across the Black Sea. Russian war crime also continue to dog it in a way that may impact individual Russian soldiers for decades to come.

Of course, this doesn't mean that all is well on the Ukrainian side. Ukraine has also suffered immense military casualties and losses of military equipment (although the military equipment of Ukraine is being replenished much more rapidly and with superior gears from Western allies than Russia equipment). And, unlike Russia, Ukraine has suffered immense civilian casualties, rapes by Russian forces, and destruction (and sometimes outright looting) of Ukrainian civilian property by Russian forces. Ukrainian refugees have fled in vast numbers all over the world.

So far, Russia has retaliated against Ukraine's allies mostly by shutting off their access to Russian natural gas pipelines. The possibility of a nuclear strike by Russia seems like less of an imminent threat than it did earlier in the war, despite the fact that its conventional military efforts have floundered, in substantial part due to Western assistance provided to Ukraine.