Russian Losses According To Ukraine's Defense Ministry

This is a story from one side of the conflict as of August 8, 2022. The leading neutral source admittedly underestimates the losses because of their high standards for confirmation. The reality probably lies between the neutral estimates and the estimate below. But Ukrainian estimates have consistently been more credible than Russia estimates in this conflict.

Six weeks ago, according to the Washington Post: 

The Pentagon estimates that the Russians have lost 2,600 armored vehicles, or about 30 percent of their inventory. That includes about 1,000 tanks and 1,600 armored personnel carriers. The Russians have also fired nearly 70 percent of their precision-guided munitions, and because of Western sanctions, Moscow may be unable to resupply those critical munitions.

In mid-May, based upon news reports, I estimated that the original supply of various Russian heavy systems was as follows with Ukrainian estimates of losses (and with no allowance for Russian resupply of its initial force with additional equipment) as follows:

* 150,000 troops (41,030 lost; 27%)

* 1,880 tanks (1,768 lost; 94%)

* 3,008 artillery vehicles (1,191 lost; 40%)

* 8,648 armored infantry fighting and armored personnel carriers vehicles (4,011 lost; 46%)

* 9,118 other ground vehicles (3,117 lost; 34%).

I don't have before and after estimates for aircraft, helicopters, drones, cruise missiles, and naval resources.

There may be some classification issues present, for example, treating some vehicles that I have classified in another category as tanks for loss purposes.

Losses of troops means deaths, serious injury, capture as prisoners, or desertions.

Analysts cited by the Washington Post (on July 28, 2022) have cautiously opined that Russian forces have started to stall, and that Ukrainian forces are starting to make gains, as a result of Western supplied advanced weapons:

Russian advances in Ukraine have slowed almost to a standstill as newly delivered Western weapons help Ukrainian forces reclaim much of the advantage they had lost in recent months, opening a window of opportunity to turn the tide of the war in their favor again.

Russian troops have made no significant territorial gains since the Ukrainian retreat on July 2 from the eastern city of Lysychansk under withering artillery fire. The retreat gave Russia full control over Luhansk, one of the two oblasts, or regions, that make up the broader eastern Donbas area, and it marked Russia’s only meaningful strategic success since its retreat from territory around Kyiv in April.

Particular credit was given to the U.S. High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) that have been provided to the Ukrainians, which launch guided missiles with 50 mile plus ranges, which is far beyond the range of conventional unguided artillery shells, with far greater accuracy.