The 2022 Midterm Election Turnout And Colorado State House Results Analyzed

Turnout

Turnout in the 2022 midterm elections in Colorado this year was 2,540,666 voters who voted ballots (not necessarily in every race), out of 3,833,468 active registered voters in the state, a 66.28% voter turnout rate. Turnout in the 2020 Presidential election in Colorado was 86.54% by the same measure.

Interpolating slightly from the state demographer's office's estimate, the voting age population of Colorado was 4,167,610 in 2019, and this probably increased by about 1.5% between 2019 and 2022. So, the voting aged population of Colorado at the time of the midterm election was about 4.23 million, so voter turnout was about 60.1% of the voting aged population in the midterm elections. Thus, about 90.6% of people who are part of the voting aged population in Colorado are registered to vote which, given disqualifications from voting for felons who are incarcerated and non-U.S. citizens, is exceptional. 

The turnout rate in Colorado was also well above the historical U.S. norm for midterm elections, almost double the long term national average turnout as a percentage of the voting age population. Voter turnout in Colorado has consistently been among the two or three highest of U.S. states in recent years, and the 2022 midterms were no exception to that rule.

The Colorado State House Race

There are sixty five seats in the Colorado state house, all of which are elected every two years. 

One of the seats won by Democrats (HD-7 in Denver) and three of the seats won by Republicans (HD-20 in suburban Colorado Springs, HD-51 in exurban Fort Collins, and HD-63 in the rural Front Range east of Fort Collins) were uncontested. The other 61 seats had at least a Democratic party candidate and a Republican party candidate. There was also a Libertarian candidate in 20 of those 61 seats, and in one of the 20 seats where there was a Libertarian candidate (HD-1 in Denver) there was also a fourth unaffiliated candidate in the race.

Democrats won 46 seats and Republicans won 19 seats in the Colorado state house in 2022, which is two more seats than the Democrats needed to have a two-thirds supermajority. Going into the election Democrats had held 41 house seats and Republicans held 24 for a net gain of five seats.

The map below from Ballotpedia is from before the election in what appear to be the newly drawn districts, but it does illustrate the geography of partisan politics in the State of Colorado.

In the Colorado state senate race, the results left Democrats with 23 seats to 12 Republican seats, a net gain of three seats and a single seat short of a two-thirds majority in that house of the Colorado General Assembly. Going into the election in which only half the seats were before the voters, Democrats had 20 seats and the Republicans had 15. That race is harder to analyze, however, because only half of the seats in the chamber were in play in this election.

Democrats also control all statewide elective offices in the state. 

The justices on the state supreme court are officially non-partisan and nominated by a blue ribbon commission in groups of three prospective candidates from which the Governor can choose. But, a majority of the current state supreme court justices (and state judges in Colorado more generally) were appointed by Democratic Governors.

Close Races

Few of the races were close, and the Republicans didn't win a single one of the six genuinely competitive races this year. Neither party won any of the other side's safe seats. If there is an overall theme is that the Democrats won in swing voting suburbs this year.

Each of the sixteen Republicans who were elected who won a contested House District race won by at least 13.6 percentage points, and the median margin of victory for a winning Republican in a contested race was 24.29 percentage points.

The Democratic Party's margin of victory in the median race in the state house, which it needed to win to secure its majority control of that house was 11.22 percentage points in HD-62 in eastern Pueblo and the San Luis Valley. 

Democrats won all 18 races where the margin of victory was less than the closest Republican win, all 11 races where the margin of victory was less than 8 percentage points (the next closest race had an 11.97 percentage point margin of victory), and all 6 races where the margin of victory for the winner was less than 5 percentage points (in which the Democratic margin of victory ranged from 0.9 percentage points to 3.37 percentage points).

The closest race was the 0.9 percentage point margin of victory in the two candidate HD-43 race in the Highlands Ranch suburb of Denver. The other two close house races that Democrats won which didn't involve potential third-party spoiler effects were HD-19, in suburban Colorado Springs, with a 3.37 percentage point margin of victory, and HD-61, which includes many mountain resort towns including Aspen and the surrounding area, with a 2.82 percentage point margin of victory.

Democrats secured an outright majority of the votes cast in 43 of the 46 house races that they won. They won three races (HD-16, HD-25, and HD-50) with pluralities that were smaller than the third-party Libertarian vote. Colorado does not have runoff elections at the state level if the plurality winner fails to receive a majority of the votes cast in the first round.

In HD-16, in suburban Colorado Springs, the Democratic candidate's margin of victory over the Republican was 2.17 percentage points and the Libertarian candidate received 2.66% of the vote. It is possible, although unlikely, that the Libertarian candidate was a spoiler in this race whose candidacy caused the Republican candidate's defeat.

In HD-25, in the mountainous portions of the Jefferson County western suburbs of Denver, the Democratic candidate's margin of victory over the Republican was 1.39 percentage points and the Libertarian candidate received 2.05% of the vote. It is plausible that the Libertarian candidate may have been a spoiler in this race whose candidacy caused the Republican candidate's defeat.

In HD-50, in Greeley, the Democratic candidate's margin of victory over the Republican was 1.89 percentage points and the Libertarian candidate received 3.51% of the vote. It is very possible that the Libertarian candidate may have been a spoiler in this race whose candidacy caused the Republican candidate's defeat.

The other 17 Libertarian candidates in house races and the 1 unaffiliated candidate in a house race, were irrelevant to the ultimate outcome of the 17 house races in which the other 18 third-party candidates contended. Likewise, third-party candidates were not potential spoilers in any of the statewide partisan races this year, all of which Democrats won with an outright majority of the votes cast.

The combined third-party candidate performance in HD-1 in Denver which had two third-party candidates was 4.53%; the Democrat won that seat by a 32.29 percentage point margin of victory. The best performance by a Libertarian candidate alone in a house was this year was in HD-15 in suburban Colorado Springs, where the Libertarian won 4.14% of the vote; the Republican won that seat by a 17.66 percentage point margin of victory.

The HD-50 race was also the marginal race that gave Democrats a two-thirds majority in the house. They could have secured a two-thirds supermajority in the house even if the Democrats had lost HD-43 which they won by 0.9 percentage points and HD-25, which they won by 1.39 percentage points. 

The Popular Vote Compared

The popular vote (including votes cast for candidates in the four uncontested races) was 53.32% for Democratic house candidates, 45.84% for Republican House candidates, 0.82% for Libertarian candidates, and 0.02% for a single unaffiliated candidate. 

If the 65 seats in the Colorado house had been allocated on that basis, as the would have been in a proportional representation list system, for example, the Democrats would have won 35 seats, the Republicans would have won 29 seats, and one Libertarian candidate would have won a seat.

Of course, this is distorted by the fact that turnout as measured by votes cast for house candidates by party omits Republican and Libertarian voters in the one uncontested house seat won by a Democrat, omits Democratic and Libertarian voters in the three uncontested house seats won by a Republican, and omits Libertarian voters in the 41 contested races that didn't have a Libertarian candidate running. It also doesn't fully account for reduced turnout by Democrats in safe districts given that there were no close partisan statewide office elections in 2022 in Colorado. Still, many statewide ballot measures gave every voters some incentive to vote, and turnout was overall quite high. 

The percentages for the aggregated house vote races aren't far outside the range of the performance of Democrats in statewide partisan races in 2022 in Colorado, although they rival the best performances that the Republicans had in any of the statewide partisan races (in part because there was a smaller third-party vote in the state house races since there were no third-party candidates in 41 of those races).

In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet defeated Republican candidate Joe O'Dea by a 55.88% to 41.27% margin, with the Libertarian candidate securing 1.74% of the vote, the next most popular third-party candidate getting 0.66% of the vote, and one more third-party candidate getting 0.45% of the vote.

In the Governor's race, incumbent Democrat Jared Polis defeated Republican candidate Heidi Ganahl by a 58.53% to 39.18% margin, with the Libertarian candidate receiving 1.15%, and the other two third-party candidates receiving 0.86% and 0.27% of the vote respectively.

In the Secretary of State race, incumbent Democrat Jena Griswold defeated Republican Pam Anderson, 55.1% to 42.08% (in a race Griswold was administering by virtue of holding that office), with the Libertarian candidate receiving 1.47%, and the other two third-party candidates receiving 0.71% and 0.18% respectively.

In the State Treasurer's race, incumbent Democrat Dave Young defeated Republican candidate Lang Sias, 53.67% to 43.03%, with the Libertarian candidate receiving 3.30%. The other two statewide parties didn't field candidates for this race.

In the State Attorney General's race, incumbent Phil Weiser defeated Republican candidate John Kellner, 54.74% to 43.04%, with the Libertarian candidate receiving 2.21%. The other two statewide parties didn't field candidates for this race.

In the State Board of Education At Large race, Democrat Kathy Plomer defeated Republican candidate Dan Malloit, 53.43% to 43.04%, with the Libertarian candidate receiving 2.84% and another third-party candidate receiving 0.68% of the vote.

Of course, as I have noted previously, Democrats won five U.S. House seats (CO-1, CO-2, CO-6, CO-7 and CO-8) all of which are in Denver, Boulder, and the suburbs of Denver, of which, CO-8 was a highly competitive seat that they won by only a small margin. Republicans won what should have been three safe Republican seats (CO-3, mostly CO-4 in the rural Front Range, and CO-5 in Colorado Springs), but won CO-3 covering the the mountain towns, Western Colorado, and Southern Colorado which is a heavily Republican district by only 0.16 percentage points (the race is currently undergoing an automatic recount to be completed by December 16, 2022), which was the closest Congressional race in the entire United States (although it didn't make a difference for control of the U.S. House which Republicans secured in the midterms by a thin margin). This race was absurdly close for such a safe seat because Lauren Boebert, the Republican incumbent in the race seeking re-election, was such a deeply flawed candidate.