Ukrainian Missile Defense Reasonably Effective

Russia claims it launched 120 cruise missiles against targets across Ukraine, mostly in Odessa and Kyiv. But the Ukrainian side of the story, in some cases supported by video, suggests that fewer missiles were launched and that missile defense systems were quite effective.

A swarm of drones and a volley of cruise missiles rocked towns and cities across Ukraine on Thursday, the biggest assault in weeks and the latest in a wave of ever more sophisticated aerial duels pitting Russia’s evolving tactics against Ukraine’s growing arsenal of air defense weapons.

At dawn in Kyiv, the capital, puffy contrails from missiles or air defense weapons lingered in the sky and fragments from successful intercepts rained down on a playground and on private homes.

Russia, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said in a statement, had been “saving one of the most massive missile attacks since the beginning of the full-scale invasion for the last days of the year.” Ukraine’s air defenses were at times overwhelmed.

Iranian-made exploding drones, which Russia began acquiring last summer, were launched in a first wave, apparently to bog down air defenses before the cruise missile strikes, the Ukrainian air force said. It said its defense forces had shot down 54 of 69 cruise missiles and had also knocked out drones.

From the New York Times. 

A 78% interception rate isn't perfect, but does greatly decrease the effectiveness of cruise missiles. Every cruise missile launched, whether or not it hits a valuable target, also helps exhausts Russia's supply of them, making it less capable in future conflicts or later in the Ukraine War - it lacks the industrial base to replenish its depleted advanced military equipment quickly and has few allies it can buy new systems from during this war.

A video on CNN suggests that some of the cruise missiles were taken down by MANPADS (like the infantry carried Stinger missile).