The State Of The Chinese Military

An invasion of Taiwan may not be quite as imminent as recently feared. 

President Xi Jinping of China is believed to have ordered his armed forces to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027, if necessary, raising the specter of a catastrophic military conflict in the next few years that would almost inevitably draw in the United States.

But an ongoing purge by Mr. Xi of his top military ranks casts doubt on that deadline and, in the longer term, whether he can trust his generals to successfully wage war.

Over the past two years, two defense ministers and a host of senior People’s Liberation Army officers have been removed from their positions, including top leaders of the Rocket Force, which controls China’s nuclear weapons.

Heads continue to roll, including, according to recent reports, one of the highest-profile ousters yet: Gen. He Weidong, the country’s second-ranking officer, who reported directly to Mr. Xi and has been deeply involved in planning for a theoretical Taiwan invasion.

It is impossible to say for sure whether such dismissals are related to corruption — a stubborn and serious problem in the People’s Liberation Army — to ideological differences or to other reasons. But the tumult raises serious questions about the competence and reliability of Mr. Xi’s military commanders. This is likely to weaken his appetite for war, offering Taiwan and the United States time to strengthen their defenses.

There is no question that China’s military has come a long way. Once antiquated, it is now the world’s largest armed force and rivals the United States in air, naval and missile power. China’s military has been rehearsing an invasion or blockade of Taiwan for years — including exercises in early April — and is working out some of the challenges of transporting tens of thousands of troops across the Taiwan Strait.

But hardware and logistics alone don’t ensure victory. Military effectiveness depends heavily on battlefield leadership — experienced commanders able to make tough calls, quickly, in the fog of war. China has not fought a war since 1979, and today’s generation of Chinese officers, unlike their American and Russian counterparts, has no battlefield experience, a fact that Mr. Xi himself has lamented.

The deeper problem — underscored by the internal turmoil — is that Mr. Xi and the Chinese Communist Party may not even have a solid grip on their army.

Unlike the U.S. military, whose personnel swear an oath to the Constitution and are supposed to be apolitical, the People’s Liberation Army is the Chinese Communist Party’s army. Its officers swear allegiance to the party — of which they are members — and take their orders from Mr. Xi as head of the party and chairman of its powerful Central Military Commission. In theory, they should be under firm party control, but that’s not the case.

From the New York Times (Opinion page).