This post isn't a prediction. It isn't even a likely possibility. It is just barely within the realm of possibility. But it doesn't hurt to dream big now and then, because progress towards even part of this goal would be great.
What would be a best case scenario for the future of Russia?
Ukrainian Territory Surrendered
* Crimea is returned to Ukraine, demilitarized and granted a high degree autonomy within Ukraine.
* The historically ethnically Russian eastern provinces which Russia controls or partially controls would receive similar treatment.
* Ukrainians relocated to Russia would be repatriated.
* International peace keeping forces would provide security guarantees for a limited time period in formerly Russian controlled territory.
Demilitarization
* Russia surrenders its nuclear weapons (which are destroyed with the radioactive elements repurposed for nuclear power). It's nuclear power plants are operated under the close supervision of a beefed up International Atomic Energy Agency.
* Russia's long range missiles and military drones are destroyed.
* Russia's long range bomber aircraft are destroyed.
* Russia's remaining air force is scaled back and its most advanced fighters are destroyed.
* Russia's navy is profoundly scaled back to little more than a coast guard.
* Russia's military industry is basically shuttered, closing its tank factories, it artillery shell factories, its naval ship yards, its military aircraft factories, and so on.
* Russian military spending and military forces would be limited in a manner similar to post-WWII Germany and Japan.
International Relations
* Russia is replaced on the U.N. Security Council by India and Pakistan.
* Any Russian foreign military bases are closed and ceded to the county where they are located.
* Any treaties between Russia and former Soviet Republics are dissolved and open to renegotiation on a clean slate.
* The autocrats ruling Belarus are replaced with a democratically elected regime in elections conducted under foreign monitoring.
Balkanization
* Part of the strategy is that reform and democratization is easier for smaller unitary countries than it is for large federal countries. It is also harder to concentrate military might and economic power in many small countries than it is in one big country. Rump Russia would still be the largest successor state but would still be significantly smaller and more decentralized.
* All of Russia's autonomous regions (everything but the red and pink and blue areas on the map below, i.e. all territories in orange, yellow or green) are granted independence and a right of free passage across all territory that was formerly part of Russia. About 25 million people (out of a total of about 144 million people) live in republics and autonomous regions that would gain independence, which also make up a huge share of Russia's territory.
Via Reddit.
* The Asian and Arctic Russian Oblasts and Krai would be allowed to vote (collectively) on whether to become a separate country of "Western Russia" or not.
* Kaliningrad Oblast, with an area of 5,840 square miles (a little bigger than Connecticut or Puerto Rico or Prince Edward Island in Canada), is demilitarized and its one million people (mostly Russian speaking and ethnically Russian) are granted independence. It is offered membership in the European Free Trade Association (but not the European Union) and encouraged to convert military industries to civilian ones.
* The loss of Kaliningrad together with the independent republics and autonomous regions, this would leave about 118 million people in rump Russia, and even less if Western and Arctic Russia voted to form their own country.
Regime Change
* Putin is deposed and the current political regime is dissolved and its political officials are removed from office with many disqualified from holding public office.
* A new Russian constitution is adopted reflecting its loss of territory and forbidding any future annexation of territory. It has a very weak Presidency and shifts most power over domestic policy, and almost all lower level courts, to oblast and krai and independent city governments from the national government.
Democratization, accountability, and reconciliation:
* A campaign of democratic education for a decade or so would counter propaganda from the authoritarian era, and firmly reestablish democratic freedoms.
* Russia and all of its successor states become signatories of the European Declaration of Human Rights (administered by the Council of Europe) and the International Criminal Court treaty.
* War crimes committed by Russians since the fall of the Soviet Union are prosecuted.
* A commission investigates and discloses the true story of abuses during its authoritarian regime with inside information and the behind the scenes stories of its post-Soviet Wars are told (including all abuses and casualties).
Economic Reforms and Reparations
* Heavy taxes are imposed on Russia's oligarchs and strengthened antitrust laws would break up their economic power.
* Russia's oil and gas industry is transferred to an international corporation in which Ukraine and other victims of its aggression receive a 1/3rd share of the profits (further broken out by an international arbitrator) in lieu of other reparations.
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