26 June 2015

Posts Related To Legal Paraprofessions

I attended an inaugural meeting of the Colorado Supreme Court's new subcommittee of the Unlicensed Practice Committee devoted to considering reforms to law licensing in a vein similar to that of Washington State (perhaps with different details or specialties).  Washington State is just in the process of launching a program to allow people to obtain a credential as a licensed legal technician with a specialty limited to a subset of family law after about a year of law school coursework, 3,000 hours of on the job training, passage of a limited practice bar exam, and passage of character and fitness review.  Paralegals with ten or more years of relevant experience can test out of the one year of coursework.

It is an idea that I have been kicking around for many years on this blog and elsewhere, and now that it has some chance of going somewhere, I will be doing my best to help inform the subcommittee in ways pertinent to moving this idea forward.

As an initial research step, I have culled a number of posts from this blog that are either related to the idea, or the problem it is trying to solve, or that otherwise can provide useful background, in no particular order.

* Structural Changes In The U.S. Job Market.

* Rethinking Family Law.

[H]alf or more of divorcing parties don't have lawyers to guide them through the system. In disputes over property or money, this can be tolerable. People will hire lawyers if the amount at stake in a dispute justifies it, the theory argues. Criminal law provides defendants who can't afford an attorney with a right to an attorney, as do termination of parental rights proceedings. People who are seriously injured can usually obtain lawyers on a contingent basis, and people who are sued for causing an injury usually have an attorney provided for them by their insurance company. But, in a dissolution of marriage context, attorneys must be paid for by the hour out of pocket, the need for legal assistance to resolve parenting issues often bears little relationship to the ability of the parties to pay for attorneys, the people who can't afford attorneys are often the ones who most need assistance navigating the legal system, and resolving matters without any court involvement is not an option since a marriage cannot be ended without court intervention and the parties cannot make an absolutely binding agreement concerning their children when the divorce.

Colorado is actually at the forefront of restructuring its court system to address the anomalies of family law in a system that it isn't designed to handle. It has discovery rules tailored specifically to divorce cases. It has firm guidelines on the award of temporary maintenance in most cases. It does a fairly good job of providing day care for parties at court houses. It has shifted a significant share of responsibility in contested parental responsibility cases from a distant judge to whom evidence is presented, to an inquisitorial evaluator with specialized training who actively contacts parties and witnesses outside a courtroom setting. It has shifted from a paperwork dominated type of litigation to one in which an initial status conference in person, an in person hearing on temporary orders, and an in person permanent orders hearing, sometimes supplemented by additional in person status conferences, smooth over procedural difficulties for pro se parties and reduce the degree to which the proceedings are adversarial. It has set clear guidelines on the rules for modifying existing court orders. But, Colorado still have a long way to go towards rethinking how it handles divorce from a first principles, and most states have even further to go towards that end.

At the level of the court system as a whole, the stakes are high. Family law cases are now the predominant kind of civil litigation in state courts of general jurisdiction. And, in lower courts of limited jurisdiction, temporary restraining order cases and domestic violence criminal litigation take up a significant share of the court's resources and have evolved into the "county court divorce" for people who never even officially got married but face many of the same issues of divorcing married couples.


When you apply for a green card (lawful permanent residence status) as a spouse or parent or ummarried child of a U.S. citizen under age twenty-one, your application can be processed when it is filed, many factors that would disqualify you for other visas don't apply, and if you entered the country legally (even if you later fell out of legal immigration status) you can apply for a green card in the U.S. rather than at a foreign embassy.

But, suppose that you are a child of a U.S. citizen who is over the age of twenty-one, a brother or sister of a U.S. citizen, a spouse of a lawful permanent resident, or an unmarried child of a lawful permanent resident, how long do you have to wait in line to have your application considered a recent date?

1. Spouses and unmarried children under the age of twenty-one of lawful permanent residents: Four years if not Mexican nationals, and six years and nine months if Mexican nationals.

2. Ummarried children of U.S. citizens who are more than twenty-one years old: seven years if not nationals of Mexico or the Phillipines, seventeen years and seven months from the Phillipines, and eighteen years from Mexico.

3. Unmarried children of lawful permanent residents: eight years and nine months if not nationals of the Mexico, the Phillipines or the Dominican Republic; twelve year and seven months from the Phillippines, fifteen years from the Dominican Republic, and nineteen years and six months from Mexico.

4. Married children of U.S. citizens: eleven years if not nationals of Mexico or the Phillipines, twenty years and ten months for nationals of Mexico, and nineteen years and nine months for national of the Phillipines.

5. Brothers and sisters of U.S. citizens: twelve years if not nationals of Mexico or the Phillipines, sixteen years for nationals of Mexico, and twenty-four years for nationals of the Phillipines.

The deadlines shift from month to month.

There is no family based immigration for married children of lawful permanent residents, or siblings of lawful permanent residents, or parents of lawful permanent residents.

In these categories there are also far more reasons that you can be prohibited from filing a legal immigration application for periods of three or ten years for past immigration related issues.

In theory, it takes a minimum of three years as a lawful permanent resident for a spouse of a U.S. citizen to get U.S. citizenship, and a minimum of five years for other lawful permanent residents to get U.S. citizenship, although in practice, it takes longer in both cases.

Spouses of less than two years who are granted lawful permanent resident status have that status reviewed after two years, at which point they must have the bona fide status of their marriage re-examined by immigration officials.

* Against Transubstantive Civil Procedure


About 80% of new United States immigration court cases (which are Article I courts with only indirect appellate resort to the ordinary judicial branch courts) are to Mexico, El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, and China.  

As of 2010, when there were an estimated 10,790,000 undocumented immigrants in the United States according to the Department of Homeland Security, the most common countries of origin were Mexico (6,640,000), El Salvador (620,000), Guatemala (520,000), and Honduras (330,000). These four countries account for a little more than 75% of the total.  But, China was only the tenth most common country of origins with 130,000.  (In between were the Philippines, India, Ecuador, Brazil and Korea.) All of the countries outside the top ten combined accounted for another 1,550,000. So, the current statistics suggest that undocumented Chinese immigrants are particularly likely to end up in immigration court relative to their numbers.

About 34% of undocumented immigrants in the United States have lived in the U.S. for at least two decades, about 61% of undocumented immigrants have been living in the United States for at least a decade, and 91% have lived in the United States for at least five years.

Net undocumented immigration from Mexico is currently zero and has been zero or a net outflow for several years.







The immigration judge was presented with uncontested oral evidence and affidavits that a woman speaking fluently in the language of Ethiopia, where she claimed to have grown up, had mixed parentage, with one parent an Eritrean, and the other an Ethiopian. This, she claimed, resulted in violent and cruel government action against her on both sides of the border of the newly divided nation. Despite this evidence, (and the judge didn't question that she was persecuted) the judgeordered her returned to the country of her torment.

The Bureau of Immigration Appeals, as is its custom, summarily affirmed the judges description with essentially no analysis or discussion.

The judge said that it wasn't credible that she was an Ethiopian. Why? She had few official documents in hand to prove her citizenship. (I'd be more skeptical if a refugee did.) Her passport was torn up, although the important pages weren't missing. A relative's evidence was presented by affidavit, rather than in person. 

Was it sloppy immigration attorney lawyering? Probably, yes. The appeal was handled by DU law students who got it right, however, although we don't know who handled the case at trial. Even when the attorney's aren't students, they are often volunteers with little or no experience in the field. But, there aren't exactly a lot of non-Ethiopians in Denver, speaking fluently in the language of Ethiopia, claiming asylum with affidavits in hand from relatives, under penalty of perjury, who claim to know that her parents are Ethiopians.

The 10th Circuit reverses the decision, basically finding that the immigration judge had no basis in the evidence presented to be unthinkably skeptical. The appellate court wasn't allowed to consider extensive documentation of her nationality presented after the hearing, although they chide the government attorney stating: "We are frankly surprised that the government persists in defending the BIA's decision, rather than acquiescing in remand in the interest of justice." (The appellate court also chides the government attorneys in footnote 1 for incompetence in their appellate brief, noting that they admit key facts in one part of their brief, which they deny in their analysis "making it difficult for the Court to determine what facts the government deems to be material and disputed."


Fifteen per cent of taxi drivers in the US have a degree, up from 1 per cent in 1970. Likewise, 25 per cent of sales clerks are graduates, against 5 per cent in 1970. An astonishing 5 per cent of janitors now have a bachelor’s degree.


Suzanne Shell, most recently in the news for receiving unauthorized practice of law sanctions from the Colorado Supreme Court in connection for her advocacy on behalf of parents facing termination of their parental rights, is back in the legal news again.


I am troubled by the existing system, which tolerates decision making about the future of parent-child relationships based in part upon the incompetent bumbling around in the court systems of economically marginal pro se parents or partially represented parents who are ill equipped to represent themselves.

Poverty itself, standing alone, should be a qualification for welfare, rather than a ground upon which to terminate a parental rights. The kind of functioning in the court system that the Court of Appeals in today's decision expects of a pro se or only partially represented party to exhibit to avoid procedural defaults and penalties in the system is unrealistically high. The court system is simply not designed to provide meaningful justice in the absence of competent legal representation at every step of the process for all parties. . . .

When Should There Be A Right To Counsel

I do not believe that it is terribly important to have a right to counsel in every case, although in an ideal world this might be the better course. When only money is at stake, a party may be economically justified in not securing legal representation in a losing battle or a case with stakes too small to justify hiring a lawyer. Likewise, when a party is incompetently represented in a case involving only money, a legal malpractice action provides some recourse to a client who is hurt, without imposing conflicting duties upon an opposing private party to exercise restraint in pursuing their case. I also have not a great deal of sympathy in the rare high stakes cases where a big money dispute where someone who can easily afford a lawyer loses because they don't take the case seriously.

But, there is a constitutional right to representation in termination of parental rights cases such as this one (a large share of which involve economically marginal parents), just as there is in criminal defense cases where one cannot afford a lawyer, which can be squeezed in a suspect way, when it is hard in practice to obtain representation. Expecting someone who makes just $2,000 a year and has an unstable economic life to be able to afford to obtain paid counsel to represent them competently in a parental rights termination case is unrealistic.

Also, there is currently no constitutional right to representation in parental rights and parenting time cases, for example in the context of a divorce, where the parents are too indigent to easily afford counsel, despite the fact that the legal system is ill suited to handling these cases in the absence of counsel and despite the fact that difficult custody issues often fail to coincide with the resources to litigate them properly in the current system, something that is very expensive even for affluent parents.

The American Bar Association agrees with me on this point, and also identifies several other categories (e.g. eligibility for income support benefits) that are similarly problematic.

Other Problems In Custody Cases

Lack of counsel in contested custody cases isn't the only problem with the court system in custody and parental rights/termination cases, although the analysis above explains why so many divorces (upon which the courts have a monopoly) involve pro se parties despite the high stakes involved for the children and parents involved. While Colorado handles pro se parties in custody matters better than many states, as a result of a heavily in person court facilitation process early in divorce cases and a focus on alternative dispute resolution, it is still fundamentally not designed to be user friendly for people without lawyers. 

The lack of guidance provided to those in the system by a vague "best interests of the child" standard plagues the system with uncertainty that provokes litigation. Even if there is complete agreement on the facts in a case, which are often awkward to present to a judge because almost everything is potentially relevant, the law does not provide an answer or even much practical guidance about what a court should do in a case. 

The court system's usual rules are designed to do justice between parties at a leisurely pace based on something in the past that is done and over with based upon relatively clear legal rules, something that works fine in a personal injury case, a criminal case, or a breach of contract case between parties who no longer do business with each other. But, these rules are ill suited to forward looking custody determinations in which the needs of the children are constantly evolving making a once and for all resolution of the matter inpracticable. Courts are bad at making quick decisions and bad at predicting the future.

The Future

Sooner or later, I suspect, we are going to come to the conclusion that we need to start over from scratch in the area of custody and parental rights procedure. 

While an adverarial process works for most areas of the law, I see the law moving towards a basically inquisitorial process, in which someone like a child and family investigator evalutes the parties and issues in context in the field, rather than a court room, at public expense in addition to advocates for both parents at state expense for the indigent. 

Likewise, I see the process moving away from the decree model, where a decree has a measure of finality and post-decree modifications are seen as an exception to be limited, to the probate court guardianship and conservatorship model, in which continuing regular court supervision of the parties is the norm to be applied, with the reviews being basically pro forma in the mill run of cases. 

And, I think that ultimately, the vacuous "best interests of the child" standard will be fleshed out with standards serving children's best interests that provide greater guidance in particular cases, such as interstate moves. For example, one such meta-rule that is evolving is what amounts to a presumption in favor of preserving the pre-separation status quo to the extent feasible, and a whole host of standards of conduct, such as an expectation that a parent not bad mouth the other parent in the presence of a child, is also evolving.


Once upon a time, where you wanted to sell real estate, you handed some soil or twig for the property to the buyer in what was called livery of seizen. Couples kiss, wear traditional costumes, and exchange rings when they marry in front of a crowd. One of the traditional ways to revoke a will (recently litigated in Colorado) is to destroy or deface the physical document (which leads to a number of peculiarities of probate law). Traditionally, wills were read aloud after a death, although that rarely happens these days. Even though it no longer legally matters, it is traditional to seal a contract with a handshake. When sports teams finish a game, win or lose, the players each slap hands saying "good game", emotionally putting an end to disputes over the details that led to the final result. Churches acknowledge affiliations to their faith with dramatic baptisms in the Christian church and a vividly memorable circumcision ceremony for infant Jewish and (at least in traditional societies) adolescent Muslim boys. Basic trainees in the military, men entering monastic orders, and prison inmates have their hair shorn, and are stripped of almost all of their personal possessions. . . .

For example, one of the classic problems that one sees in modern family law litigation is that one or both of the people who once were married, or at least a loving couple, can't let go of that relationship. The service of the divorce petition, the signing of the papers, the dryly worded court order ending a marriage and providing for the sharing of the children and property of the marriage, and often a restraining order as well, don't communicate to the former member of that relationship with adequate emotional force that the relationship is really, once and for all, over.  Some people are simply beyond reaching by any means of communications, but a large number of people who go through family law proceedings simply don't really understand at an emotional and subconscious level what has happened until much later, even if they can parrot the court's ruling.

Perhaps if that message could be conveyed with more visual drama in some universally accepted new ritual, more people who move on, and there would be, as a result, less senseless fighting driven by old emotions instead of new practicalities. The demise of fault based divorce has made the process much more antiseptic for all involved in the process, but have we overdone it to the point of failing to really acknowledge in an emotionally valid way that not just the legal construct of the marriage, but also the emotional reality of the relationship that it approximates, has ended? Shouldn't the symbolism and ritual that ends of marriage need to be even more powerful and less subtle than the symbolism and ritual that starts one?

Adoptions tend to be even more understated, for fear of spooking the relinquishing parents, and not surprisingly, the main complaint that gets litigated in adoptions is that of relinquishing parents who claim they were properly appraised of the gravity of their actions.

A classic problem in consumer litigation of all kinds is the not infrequent failure of a debtor or consumer, already overwhelmed by paper and having trouble determining what is most important, to realize that a summons and complaint in a lawsuit is a once and for all speak now or forever hold your peace notice that has profound legal consequences if ignored.  This lack of understanding is one of the driver's of the almost ubiquitous paranoia about ulterior motives and about being cheated by one's betters found among unsophisticated people who have frequently been on the receiving side of litigation.

Perhaps we would do well to imitate the litigation practices of the protocol agents of the advanced civilization in the science fiction book "Jaran" by Kate Elliott, where legal disputes are announced by delivery of a physical baton in person by a courier, and one responds to the allegations at a mandatory in person appearance at the designated place and time, as inefficient as that may be, rather than simply enforcing the duty to appear by entering a default judgment against a party who does not appear (one that is often forgotten until property is seized pursuant to the judgment).

I have no empirically evidence to support the theory that more dramatic visual drama in the legal system would make any difference at all. The modern trend has been to strip away formalities, arcane language, pompous court room surroundings, wax seals, fancy ribbons and the like from legal matters. Instead, modern legal proceedings and legal facilities, favor plain English, the bare minimum of in person appearances, contemporary but understated and inoffensive surroundings suited for efficient, processing of business matters, dispenses with wigs and obtuse morning suits, and use very simple seals and acknowledgements - relying on the ability to confirm orders with third party repositories rather than lack of counterfeitability for reliability. Many documents that used to have to be notarized are now simply signed under penalty of perjury with no third party verification of identity or intent.

For lots of purposes this trend may be a good one. It demystifies the legal system and makes it more accessible to pro se parties. Much of what courts do is as much administrative business as it is emotionally meaningful decision making. For the most part, people prefer an inexpensive, quick, form driven informal probate process to the traditional succession proceedings of courts of equity will all their pomp and circumstance. And, some parts of the court process, like the delivery of jury verdicts finding someone guilty or not guilty, have managed to hold onto some of the drama that gives them emotional power. But, maybe some of the time, particularly in civil matters that don't involve business people and may have consequences for people who do not have the same cultural heritage as the lawyers and judges who are running the system, a higher touch, lower tech approach is in order and would make courts more effective. It is certainly a hunch that would be worth exploring with more systematic research.



What professions does Colorado regulate?

Most professional and business regulation at the state level involves three industries: (1) health and psychological well being, (2) finance, insurance and real estate, and (3) the construction industry. There are, of course, a few professions that don't fit any of these categories. The professions and businesses regulated by the Department of Regulatory Agencies are below.

Health and Psychological Well Being

Professionals:

Nurses (CNA, LPN, RN) 67,615
Barbers/Cosmetologists 45,743
Nurse Aides 31,803
Physicians/Physicians Assistants 22,737
Emergency Medical Technicians 15,986 (Department of Public Health)
Dentists/Dental Hygienists 8,952
Massage Therapists 7,528
Pharmacists 7,385
Physical Therapists 5,537
Social Workers 4,421
Veterinarians 3,998
Addiction Counselors 3,080
Unlicensed Psychotherapists 2,706*
Chiropractors 2,655
Respiratory Therapists 2,630
Psychologists 2,462
Occupational Therapists 2,160
Optometrists 1,144
Acupuncturists 1,046
Athletic Trainers 700 (projected)
Marriage and Family Therapists 651
Audiologists/Hearing Aid Providers 552
Nursing Home Administrators 448
Podiatrists 198
Midwives 54 (direct entry midwives only, nurse-practitioners classified with nurses)

* ironically one really does need a license to be an "unlicensed psychotherapist" and unlicensed psychotherapists in Colorado even have a professional association.

Businesses:

Barber/Cosmetology Shops and Salons 4,427
Pharmacy Businesses 2,247
Health Facilities (Department of Public Health)
Hospitals (Department of Public Health)
Medical Marijuana (Department of Revenue and Department of Public Health)
Ground Ambulances (Department of Public Health)
Air Ambulances 19 (Department of Public Health)
Life Care Institutions 11

Finance, Insurance and Real Estate

Professionals:

Stockbrokers 154,580
Insurance Agents 108,927
Real Estate (Agents, Appraisers, Brokers & Sales) 53,251
Accountants 16,497
Investment Advisor Representatives 9,163
Mortgage Brokers 8,729

Businesses:

Insurance Agencies 10,108
Securities Brokerage Firms 2,403
Insurance Companies (e.g. Life, Health, Property & Casualty, Title, HMOs) 1,464
Accounting Firms 1,204
Investment Advisory Firms 705
Purchasing Groups (Insurance) 431
Banks 107
Preneed Contract Sellers (Funeral) 72
Credit Unions 52
Money Transmitters 40
Government Entity Self-Insurance Pools 9
Trust Companies 7
Saving and Loan Associations 4

Construction Industry

Professionals:

Architects/Engineers/Land Surveyors 29,738
Plumbers 22,737
Electricians 19,308
Landscape Architects 681

Other Professions and Businesses

Professionals:

Professional Counselors 4,424
Boxers 1,194
Outfitters, Hunting and Fishing Guides 738
Bail Bonding Agents 497
Athlete Agents 2

Businesses:

Tramways 365
Funeral Homes and Crematories 349 (projected)

Non-DORA Regulation

There are other professional and business licenses regulated at the state level by agencies other than DORA. Some of the more notable are: 

Attorneys (Judiciary),
State Judges (Judiciary),
Notaries Public (Secretary of State), 
Debt Collection Agencies (Attorney General), 
Payday Lenders (Attorney General),

P-12 teachers in public schools (Department of Education), 
Public school administrators (Department of Education), 
Charter schools (local school districts and Department of Education),
Private schools (Department of Education),
Home Schooling parents (Department of Education),

Car dealers and sellers (Department of Revenue), 
Powersports dealers (Department of Revenue),
Manufactured home sales (Department of Local Affairs),
Retail sales establishments (Department of Revenue),

Restaurants (Department of Public Health), 
Nursery businesses (Agriculture), 
Pesticide applicators (Agriculture), 
Kennels (Agriculture), 
Sale of farm products (Agriculture), 
Feedlots (Agriculture), 
Zoos (Department of Natural Resources), 
River outfitters (Department of Natural Resources), 
Parks and Exhibitors (Department of Natural Resources), 
Water treatment plant operators (Department of Public Health), 
Firms related to air pollution, water pollution and hazardous waste (Department of Public Health),
Mines (Department of Revenue and Department of Natural Resources)
Fossil Fuel distributors (Department of Revenue)

Establishments that serve or sell alcohol (Department of Revenue),
Tobacco vendors (Department of Revenue),
Racing (Department of Revenue), 
Bingo and Lotteries (Secretary of State), 
Casinos (Department of Revenue), 

Public utilities (including taxi cabs) (PUC and Attorney General), 
Commercial vehicle drivers 130,000+ (Department of Revenue),

Lobbyists (General Assembly), 
Political campaigns (Secretary of State), 
Charities (Attorney-General and Secretary of State), and 

Law enforcement officers (Attorney General). 

A variety of businesses and professions are regulated at the local level. Some of the more notable include a variety of building trades (such as general contractors), real estate development (via building permits, zoning regulation, etc.), and street vendors.

Likewise there are many businesses and professions that are licensed at the federal level. . . .

On the question of lawyers, I'll grant you that (1) there is a good argument that entities should be able to represent themselves, pro se, via their officers, (2) the "practice of law" which requires a license should be more narrowly and more definitively defined to excludes quite a bit of transactional practice, (3) there should be more kinds of paraprofessionals authorized to act independently in particular legal areas, particularly where there is lots of unmet need that call on only a narrow legal knowledge skill set (e.g. criminal law, immigration and child custody). But, the case for regulating lawyers, who are in a particularly good position to take advantage of clients and the harms done in the unauthorized practice cases that do come up, also make the case for regulation pretty good.


As I previously noted, a very small percentage of Colorado lawyers handle a very large percentage of trials in which lawyers are used at all in Colorado. This continues to be true in light of the 2008 annual report of the Colorado judicial branch.

The high volume, predominantly government employed criminal bar handles more than 98% of county court jury trials, and about 80% of district court jury trials (where more serious cases such as felonies and civil disputes over $15,000 are handled). In all, more than 90% of jurors called to serve in Colorado's state courts serve on criminal or quasi-criminal (e.g. traffic, juvenile delinquency, and parental rights termination) cases.

About two-thirds of non-jury cases in county court are also handled by the criminal bar, while more than half of the remaining cases are small claims court cases handled without lawyers (with less than $7,500 in controversy). About 98% of civil cases other than small claims court cases in county court which go to trial (1,374) produce a bench trial rather than a jury trial -- typically for less than a full day.

There are 19 civil trial per year in county court (jurisdiction up to $15,000 in controvery) and 246 civil jury trials in district court (general jurisdiction) each year in Colorado. Personal injury case make up a majority (at least) of civil jury cases in Colorado. There are 266 bench trials in Colorado district courts each year in civil cases.

Most judicial decision making based upon evidence in Colorado District Courts (and the Denver Probate Court) comes in evidentiary hearings not classified as trials. There are about 12,988 final domestic relations hearings, 2,022 guardianship and/or conservativeship hearings, about 178 will, trust and formal probate hearings (only 7 of which are will contests), and about 134 mental health case hearings in Colorado each year. Many of these cases are only nominally contested, however.

The courtroom part of American criminal procedure hasn't changed much for several decades, and is remarkably inexpensive. It wouldn't be unusual for the combined costs of the prosecutor's office, the public defender's office and the court system (but excluding police investigative costs) in a prosecuted felony to be below $200 each, on average, in a typical county. A significant percentage of the total costs for all involved is in capital cases. In many cases, much of the process is oral, and many of the motions that are filed are heavily form driven. As I noted before:
It is a fair guess that the vast majority of criminal cases in Colorado, probably 80% of jury trials and 30% of bench trials [excluding hearings], at least, are handled by roughly 1,000-1,400 criminal lawyers who make up about 5-7% or less (the 20,000 number above is probably an underestimate) of the lawyers licensed to practice in Colorado.
The county court civil process, which mostly handles small claims where lawyers aren't involved, and collection and evictions cases brought en masse by lawyers specialized in that practice, is also quite quick and efficient, mostly because in a large percentage of cases defendants either fail to appear or settle on the spot in the courtroom. A few hundred more lawyers handle the bulk of the county court civil case load.

Non-criminal cases in district court, in contrast tend to be slow and very expensive, despite the fact that the stakes are often lower than they are in felony criminal cases. The process is somewhat streamlined in domestic cases, but in other civil cases, the rules contemplated a civil jury trial, even if this is highly unlikely.


Trials, Hearings and ADR

There were 1399 jury trials in District Court in Colorado in fiscal year 2010: 1,059 in criminal cases, 306 in civil cases, and 34 in juvenile cases (generally only termination of parental rights cases give rise to a right to a jury trial in juvenile cases). I know from other data that approximately 75% of general jurisdiction civil jury trials are personal injury cases.

There were also 763 bench trials in District Court: 53 in criminal cases, 368 in civil cases, and 342 in juvenile cases (many of which are quasi-criminal juvenile delinquency cases).

There were 13,860 domestic relations hearings in District Court: 13,487 permanent orders hearings in dissolution of marriage cases, 202 legal separation hearings, and 171 invalidity of marriage hearings. Note that almost every dissolution of marriage or legal separation of invalidity of marriage case must be concluded with a hearing (including every case where children are involved) even if the cases are uncontested. So this doesn't necessary capture the full number of active litigations in these cases.

There were 183 mental health hearings in District Court: 49 for involuntary commitment for alcohol treatment, 78 long term certification hearings, and 56 short term certification hearings.

There were 2,729 probate hearings: 430 for combined conservatorships and guardianships, 614 for conservatorships without guardianships, 1,517 for guardianships without conservatorships, 137 for the formal probate of a will, 11 for will contests, and 20 hearings related to trusts. Many of the conservatorship, guardianship and formal probate cases are not genuinely contested but do require in court testimony to establish the faces beyond mere affidavits.

In County Court in Colorado, in fiscal year 2010, there were 1,321 jury trials: 821 in misdemeanor cases, 483 in traffic cases, and 17 in civil cases.

In County Court there were 4885 bench trials: 275 in misdemeanor cases, 176 in traffic cases, 1,295 in civil cases other than small claims cases, and 3,139 in small claims cases. There were also 9,053 final hearings in infraction cases.

These figures, naturally, omit, federal court trials and hearings, and hearings in administrative courts (e.g. DMV license revocation hearings). This list also omits parole revocation hearings and many hearings that aren't the moral equivalent of a final bench trial in a case (e.g. scheduling hearings, motion hearings, temporary orders hearings, contempt hearings, etc.).

Compared To Case Loads

District Court Civil

There were 116,346 civil cases filed in District Court in Colorado in fiscal year 2010, that produced 306 jury trials and 368 bench trials, but not all of those filings are created equal.

Rule 120 hearings filings (a summary hearing, often uncontested and dispensed with after filing for lack of objection, in the non-judicial mortgage foreclosure process) accounted for 39,404 of those cases. The bulk of of the non-judicial foreclosure process is handled by the executive branch public trustee's office, whose duties are ministerial and comparable to those of a sheriff enforcement a judgment rather than by a court imposing one. The court in a rule 120 hearing addressly solely the question of the existence of default justifying foreclosure (in all but rare cases due to non-payment of amounts due on a promissory note), not damages.

Distaint warrant filings (state tax lien filings) accounted for another 45,528 filings and generally don't produce a hearing. A distaint warrant is roughly equivalent proceedurally to the administrative registration of a judgment obtained in another state and does not require proof of the merits before a claim can enforced against property.

These case make up 73% of the district court civil docket, but have a comparatively trivial impact on the court's work load. The 578 foreign judgment filings, 322 out of state subpeonas and 278 name change petitions are also almost purely administrative matters that do not greatly burden the court. 

There were 30,236 cases of other types on the District Court civil docket in the state. 

About 5,809 are claims that fit in the heartland of tort law: cases involving personal injuries including worker's compensation cases that end up in court) and wrongful deaths, breach of warranty, public nuisance, sexual harassment cases, fraud cases and malpractice cases (of all kinds) as well as motions to approve transfers of structured settlements. These cases make up a greatly disproportionate share of civil jury trials in District Court with about one in thirty-three of them actually proceeding to a jury trial

About 3,527 involve judicial efforts to establish title to or possession of specific pieces of property often in connnection with the collection of a debt. A big portion of the remainder of the cases, 13,165 involve contractual disputes or rights in real estate or other property. The number of jury and bench trials in cases such as these greatly understates the number of actual controversies resolve by the court process, because many "paperwork intensive" cases can be resolved by judges on the merits, or in a manner that makes a determination on the merits largely a foregone conclusion, in motion practice prior to trial. 

Many cases involve judicial review of, or action collateral to that of other decision makers: There were 722 appeals from municipal or county courts and 72 cases to confirm arbitration awards. There were 3,820 cases are to seal records or seek habeas corpus relief that is generallly collateral to a criminal case. There were 5 public utility cases, 236 cases reviewing acts by local governments and by government officials, and 31 special district cases. Note also that appeals of municipal or county court cases classified as civil in district court, appear to include cases where the underlying matter appealed from would be a traffic or criminal case, and that it is possible to appeal such cases even in many cases when guilt is not disputed (and hence there was no trial) if there is an alleged error regarding the sentence. The number of civil cases appealed to District Court from county court or a municipal court is probably closer to one or two hundred.

This leaves 2,849 other kinds of cases on the docket. They include: 470 declaratory judgment cases, 583 injunctive relief cases, 1,484 cases classified simply as "other", 29 restraining order cases, and 334 contempt of court cases.

District Court Criminal 

There were 36,993 criminal cases in District Court that were resolved with 1,059 jury trials and 53 bench trials (with the balance being resolved by plea bargain or dismissed prior to trial).

Probate Filings

There were 12,189 probate filings in Colorado in fiscal year 2010. 

Of these, 5,600 were for the informal probate of a will, 1651 were for informal probate in an intestate estate, 425 were for the formal probate of a will, 225 were for formal probate in an intestate estate, 18 involved appointment of a special administrator where the probate or determination of intestacy was informal, 27 involved the appointment of a special administrator following a formal probate proceeding, 78 were small estates, 103 involved a determination of an heirship, 231 were trust cases, 93 were public administrator statements, and 149 involved "estates." All of these cases combined produced 137 hearings for the formal probate of a will (out of 452 such cases), there were 11 hearings for will contests (out of roughly 6,070+ wills presented for probate), and 20 hearings related to trusts (out of 231 trust cases). Less than two wills presented for probate in a thousand gave rise to a genuine will contest that must be resolved in a hearing in 2010 in the entire state of Colorado. 

Denver's Probate Court has only a couple of dozen contested will hearings a decade. In 2010, Denver's Probate judge and her magistrate handled held 342 guardianships and/or conservatorship hearings, 3 contested will hearings, 14 formal probate hearings, and 7 trust hearings. Thus, there were 6 or 7 guardianship or conservativeship hearings in a typical week, and there was two hearing related to the probate of a will or to trusts every month. In addition, official statistics do not reflect, but there probably were, proceedural hearings, hearings on creditor's claims, and hearings related to accountings in probate and guardianship and conservatorship estates.

Of the 8,220 decedents estates that were handled by the courts in Colorado in any capacity in fiscal year 2010, only 45 (about half of one percent) involved the appointment of a special administrator which gives rise to the kind of close court oversight of the estate that is routine in many states such as Florida, New York and Ohio. Slightly more than 90% of primary decedents estates that had any court involvement in Colorado were handled administratively and approved as a matter of course by the Probate Registrar in the clerk of the court's office, rather than by a judge, on the basis of a simple court form. Other parts of the probate docket were also purely administrative and required little or no judicial intervention: 592 were trust registrations, 36 were will transfers (where a will has been lodged and is moved to a new court), 4 were registrations of foreign orders, 449 were ancillary proceedings to a probate elsewhere domesticating a foreign appointment as personal representative, and 1 was a disclaimer filing.

In contrast, there were 192 adult conservatorships, 378 combined conservatorship and guardianship proceedings, 227 conservatorships for a minor, 668 adult guardianships, 560 guardianships of minors, 26 involved approving single fiduciary transactions, and 374 were personal injury settlement approvals. These produced 430 hearings for combined conservatorships and guardianships, 614 hearings for conservatorships without guardianships, 1,517 hearings for guardianships without conservatorships. Thus, almost every guardianship and conservatorship case produces a hearing and some more then one. In most, the key issues are determining the competency of the adult in question (if the case concerns an adult), and determining if the person seeking to be appointed as guardian or conservator is the right person to do so. Frequently, only one of these questsion, or neither of these questions, is at issue.

County Court Civil

County courts in Colorado in civil cases in 2010 had 1,295 in civil cases other than small claims cases and 17 civil jury trials.

This comes from 148,425 money claims, 42,689 eviction cases, 531 cases to repossess personal property, 13,257 restraining order cases, 1,496 name change petitions, 27 purely administrative registrations of foreign judgments, and 529 cases classified as "other." The vast majority of these cases are low stakes cases brough by collections attorneys for businesses in the business of lending money and by professional landlords. Less than 1% of civil cases in county court go to trial and only about 1.2% of trials are jury trials. This is particularly notable given the fact that county court procedure has little or no pre-trial dispositive motion practice. The vast majority of cases either produce default judgments or are resolved in a pre-trial settlement (usually reach in person in the court room at an initial appearance date or, much less frequently, immediately prior to a scheduled trial).

Court Sponsored Mediation

The courts also sponsor mediation (or its close cousins, excluding arbitration) through its ADR programs. There were 7,160 such cases in Colorado in the fiscal year 2010: 5,476 in domestic relations cases, 410 in juvenile dependency and neglect cases, 200 in child support enforcement cases, 172 in juvenile delinquency cases, 8 in probate cases, 283 in district court civil cases, 130 in criminal cases, 435 in county court civil cases, 36 in small claims cases, and 10 in restraining order cases. While court affiliated domestic relations ADR is offered in all judicial districts, other forms are offered only in some judicial districts.

For example, the Fourth Judicial District (El Paso and Teller Counties) is the only one with court affiliated, formally recognized ADR programs for criminal cases and restraining order cases. It also accounts for just under half of the dependency and neglect ADR cases (with all but ten of the rest being in Denver), and 57% of the county court civil ADR cases. All but 7 of the small claims ARD cases are in the 11th Judicial District (Chaffee, Custer, Fremont and Park counties). All but eight of the child support enforcement cases happen in one of four judicial districts in the Denver metro area (the 2nd, 17th, 18th and 19th judicial districts). Most court affiliated ADR programs in Colorado in non-domestic relations cases are effectively pilot programs. 




8. Higher educational degrees in many fields are an excessively time consuming and expensive de facto required credential for entering many professions in which the kind of information used by colleges and universities to admit new students accounts for substantially all of the economic value added associated with the degree in the occupations that student ultimately pursued that is inferior to the benefit that would have accrued from starting in that profession at a younger date. In particular, mechanisms should be developed to encourage occupations where higher education is used as a signal of intellectual capacity but the occupation itself requires little formal academic training, such as journalism and many forms of direct and middle management, for example, by encouraging some form of graduation with distinction from high school as an alternative credential.

9. Excessive credentialism is particularly harmful to women who plan on spending some time out of the workforce to have children and be stay at home parents to those children, because accentuates conflicts between biological fertility clocks and the time needed to establish oneself in a career, and because interrupting one's education to start a family makes it much harder to continue to pursue higher education.

10. Excessive credentialism drives up the cost of professional services across the board for consumers by creating a barrier to entry into professions that have excessive credential requirements and by creating an addition cost that must be recovered by members of those professions.

22. There is an economic need for legal professionals who are less expensive than today's lawyers who could have a narrower field of practice in imitation of independent medical professionals such as pharmacists, nurse practioners, emergency medical technicians, and independently operating physician's assistants. Criminal law, child custody, and immigration law are among the areas of law that would be particularly well suited to the establishment of these kind of allied legal professions.
















If you have an LSAT score of 145 or less, you have a very dim chance of graduating from law school and then passing a state bar exam.  An LSAT score of 145 is roughly equivalent to an IQ of 117, a bit more than one standard deviation above average, and roughly average for a college graduate (roughly the 86th percentile of the general population).

An LSAT score of 165, which would be more typical of a law student who passes the bar exam, corresponds to an IQ of 133, which is a little above the 98th percentile necessary to qualify for MENSA membership, and is about two standard deviations above average. 

Law students at top law schools and law students at the top of their classes on law review and graduating with honors tend to have still higher IQs (usually in the 99th percentile).


The Feminist Argument For Undergraduate Legal Education

Women make up 60% of law school graduates, appropriately because there are significantly more women than men who are extremely high performing in verbal and writing ability pertinent to the practice of law (Wai 2010).  But only about 17% of equity partners in large law firms are women (citing Wittenberg-Cox 2014). The percentage of women at each intermediate step in the large law firm lawyer career path declines.  Women have made up about 45% or more of law school graduates for more than thirty years, so the pipeline arguments are exhausted.

The reason for this is really not a mystery.  Men who marry and have children who work at large law firms and have what it takes to advance on that career ladder continue to devote "Big Job" class time commitments of sixty hours a week or more to their jobs.  Women who marry and have children who work at large law firms and are capable of doing the work necessary to advance on that career ladder take time off for a number of years while they have young children if they can and pay a punishing economic price for doing so for the remainder of their careers and in terms of job advancement.

In the ordinary seven years of higher education needed to obtain a law degree, a typical newly admitted to the bar attorney is 25 or 26 years old.  Women who have kids before completing graduate school are much more likely not to earn their degrees at all and almost never get into the large law firm career track.  Further, the creme of the crop of law school graduates who go onto be partners at large law firms, are also often expected to spend a year or two as judicial branch law clerks prior to entering private law firm associates as a sort of final on the job training process for the best and the brightest that provides insights in future trial practice.

Promotion at a large law firm from associate attorneys to "of counsel" or "non-equity partner", which are the next steps up in the large law firm career ladder, typically takes seven to eight years as an associate and then "senior associate" attorney in that firm working sixty to eighty hours a week.  This puts a would be non-equity partner in a law firm at 32 to 35 years old. . . .

It is almost impossible to commit the relentless long hours necessary to be on partner track at a large law firm to an associate attorney's job if you are pregnant and then give birth to a couple of kids spaced a few years apart.  This is particularly true if you want to breast feed for at least the medically recommended lengths of time (about twelve months) and to not wish to feel like you are being a terrible mother. 

Taking six months to a few years off immediately after being promoted to "Of Counsel" or "Non-equity partner" is likewise not a recipe for keeping your job in a large law firm, not matter what your reasons may be.

This leaves a woman who wants to have children without fertility treatments and other biological clock problems by having children before reaching advanced material age who is otherwise perfect law partner material with a window of three years or less to have kids while still securely reaching the penultimate step in the career ladder as "non-equity partner", which is pretty much the lowest perch from which you can return to the firm after an extended leave of absence and have any hope of ever becoming an equity partner in a large law firm. 

Indeed, many women with an aptitude for law become paralegals or legal secretaries rather than lawyers because the earlier start is friendlier to their aspirations and desires to be parents at a reasonably young age while still having time to establish a meaningful career that they can return to without undue penalty once all of their children are ready to go to preschool.

Making law and undergraduate degree and disregarding the tradition of judicial clerkships for top law school grads seeking to become partners in private law firms turns a zero to three year window into a four or five year window, and maybe even a six year window to have children while having some hope of eventually becoming a partner if a woman takes enough AP classes, IB exams, and local college courses while in high school to finish an undergraduate degree in three years rather than four  Indeed, the addition three to five years in this window also makes it much more feasible for women who want to have children to make it all of the way to equity partner in a law firm before doing so.  And, holding onto the economic rewards of your career following an interruption in your working life for a few years is much easier for someone who has attained the status of equity partner than it is for anyone with a less senior position in a law firm.

If the biological clock theory advanced here is correct, it is fair to estimate that a shift of legal education from a graduate degree to an undergraduate degree would roughly double the number of women who become equity partners in large law firms.

There is overwhelming empirical evidence to show that the cost of higher education results in much lower levels of college attendance and completion for poor students with given test scores and grades, than for more affluent students.  The most academically talented poor students are only about as likely to earn a college degree as the least academically talented affluent student.

Cutting three years and about $150,000+ of education costs (in the form of student loan debt for most poor, working class, and middle class law students) off the investment in human capital necessary to become an attorney dramatically expands access to the profession for students from less affluent families.

Put another way, given a choice between a 26 year old associate attorney applicant with one year of experience, and one with four years of experience, almost all employers would find the latter more valuable, and the change would make the lifetime earnings of all attorneys' net of education costs substantially higher.

In another related point, lower levels of student debt make it more viable for law school graduates to pursue governmental or public interest law careers out of law school, rather than being debt driven to pursue the position with the highest possible starting salary.

The Comparative Argument

The United States is exceptional in making a pre-professional law degree a graduate degree rather than an undergraduate degree.  Almost every other country in the world that has higher education requirements for becoming lawyers, in countries in the English common law tradition and in countries with the European civil law tradition alike, make a law degree an undergraduate degree. 

This is solid evidence that there would be few if any detrimental effects to making a law degree in the United States and undergraduate degree rather than a graduate degree.  There is really nothing radical about making legal education an undergraduate enterprise except for institutional inertia.

A Footnote Related To Legal Education In Less Developed Economies

Even with both a typically four year bachelor's degree and a three year professional degree as well as a bar exam as pre-requisites, the American economy manages to have enough resources to provide a legal education to almost every law school applicant who is capable of passing a state bar exam and is astute enough in applying to safety schools to apply to a school with sufficiently lenient admission law school admission standards.  (Of course, admissions standards at some law schools are even lower if you are politically connected).

Likewise, very low levels of full time law degree required employment for recent law school graduates(particularly those with relative poor academic credentials at less prestigious law schools), unprecedented associate attorney layoffs during the financial crisis that are still continuing at low levels into 2014 (also here perhaps with actually quite significant layoffs in 2014) low pay for significant subsets of entry level lawyers (e.g. Massachusetts deputy district attorneys make on average less per year than court house janitors and public defenders there (who on average have more experience) make only slightly more), all tend to support the conclusion that the higher education system is not under-producing new lawyers at the margins in the United States.

In most less developed economies, this is not the case. 

High school graduates are rare and college graduates are even more scarce, while many people in these countries are not just functionally illiterate in the official language of the country, but are totally illiterate in their native language. 

In these circumstances, allowing people to enter the full fledged practice of law with a year or two of post-secondary training in law, may make a great deal of sense.  It is better to have a sufficient cadre of lawyers with some formal legal training to administer of functional legal system, than to have a much smaller cadre of lawyers trained to developed country standards whose numbers of completely inadequate to operate a functioning legal system.  The former may have more mistakes of law than would be optimal, but the latter will be effectively a system with lawless anarchy because the system can't handle the demands it needs to serve.

Also, in a less developed economy setting, it is probably more sensible to categorically limit the jurisdiction of courts that conduct Western style legal proceedings to a subset of the total judicial system docket that the available supply of lawyers can manage and to choose the cases for the subset of the total that are most critical to have handled by well trained legal professionals (e.g. serious felonies and real estate disputes), while reserving minor cases of the sort handled in courts of limited jurisdiction in the United States (e.g. misdemeanors and minor debt collection and residential eviction cases) to traditional dispute resolution processes or lay adjudication of some other type. 

It may also make sense, if the supply of formally trained lawyers is small, to deploy the lion's share of formally trained lawyers as judges to maximize the accuracy of ultimate decision making based upon the cases presented to them, and to dispense with any formal licensing process for people assisting litigants in this process.



Most people assume that lawsuits, apart from those in small claims court, are primarily both brought and defended by lawyers. The reality, however, is that a very large share of all cases are handled without lawyers. Consider the following statistics from the 2010 fiscal year in Colorado's state courts:

In 60% of divorce cases, neither husband nor wife has a lawyer - this is the case type in which it is most common for neither party to be represented by counsel that generally involves meaningful adversarial litigation activity beyond a partial day one time hearing (apart from the small claims court division of county court limited to money claims of up to $7,500, which are lawyerless by design; about 12,000 of these cases are filed each year and about one in five are resolved through a brief bench trial with no pre-trial proceedings).   At least one of the parties in a divorce is not represented by a lawyer in an even larger share of all divorce cases in Colorado.

There were no lawyers in 73% of adoption cases, and in 65% of juvenile relinquishment cases, both of which are frequently uncontested, form driven and involved fairly small raw numbers of cases. There were no lawyers in 56% of district court civil case (although I have a suspicion that this may include all of the "distaint warrant" cases, which are basically state tax lien filings prepared by the State of Colorado, that don't involve meaningful court proceedings since the due process takes place within the Colorado Department of Revenue process). About 50% of all district court civil cases are distaint warrants (which rarely give rise to any hearing) and another 26% are approvals of non-judicial foreclosures in brief, unappealable hearings, usually by default and when held usually involving unrepresented defendants at which the non-payment of a mortgage payment is typically the only issue which may be considered.  Fewer than half a dozen law firms handle the vast majority of non-judicial foreclosures statewide in Colorado.

Defendants are not represented by lawyers in 64% of misdemeanor criminal cases, although describing these cases initiated by the District Attorney's office as lawyerless is deceptive, and the lack of representation is related in part to an unconstitutional Colorado practice of denying misdemeanor defendants access to a public defender prior to considering a plea bargain offer, that will probably be discontinued by court order in the near future.

A very large share of all civil cases brought in county court (mostly consumer debt collection and residential eviction actions), about 200,000 a year in round numbers statewide in Colorado, are brought by a collections attorney (often en masse with the pleadings prepared primarily by collections officers and paralegals), but give rise to a default judgment or result in an answer being filed by an unrepresented defendant.  A typical county court case alleged that the defendant has missed one or more credit card or rent payments.



Justice Kennedy recently spoke on the issue (Hat tip to SCOTUS Blog) to the American Bar Association, as it presented the most powerful judge in America (because he is the swing vote on the highest court) an award.

"In the developing world, there are not enough lawyers, there are not enough paralegals, there are not enough college-educated persons to make such a system work," Kennedy told delegates . . . In some countries, he said, half to three-quarters of the population works in the "shadow sector," with no licenses or legal regulation, and half the people have no official birth records. Lawyers can't merely advise millions of young people in those nations to wait decades while the groundwork for a legal structure is established, Kennedy said.

But he said lawyers are well-suited to educate and recruit those young people to promote law by fighting lawlessness - families in Asia that sell their young daughters into the sex trade, an African nation that charges fees to women who want rape complaints investigated, nations that hold prisoners incommunicado and without charges for a decade, "the ongoing and looming greater disaster in Darfur."

Lawyers should tell their listeners, "Here is a cause for your passion and your anger and your youth and your energy," Kennedy said. And he said U.S. lawyers must also realize that "the rule of law cannot stand here unless you address those problems in other nations."
The issue he charged American lawyers with is not an easy one. How do you build a legal system with few or no lawyers?

The most recent serious effort to try to do so has been in China, with decidely mixed results. But, the absence of formal legal education doesn't mean that a society has to be without lawyers all together.

The Washington Post recently highlighted the remarkable authority that a "Children's Parliament", run, as the name suggests, by children, in Goma, Congo has developed (as modest as it is) amidst a failed overall legal system, largely on the strength of the fact that it is not corrupt and makes a good faith effort to apply the law to the facts, despite the fact that its opinions are not themselves binding.

Prior to 1890, when New Hampshire adopted one, there was no such thing as a bar exam; every state, but one, had one by 1915. A college education wasn't a prerequiste to law school in the United States until about 1900 (and is still not in most of the world). When Yale Law School was founded in 1843, there were only eight law schools in the country and many lawyers learned the profession in another lawyer's office rather than in a law school. From 1779 to 1817, there was only one law school in the United States (at the College of William and Mary). Harvard Law School, founded in 1817, was the second.

Also, as far removed from actual practice as American law schools are, they are far closer than their civil law cousins, who lean on bar exam preparation courses even more heavily to teach students substantive law than do American law schools.

Early Americans were actually far more litigious than we are today, but most of the cases would have been considered small claims and were dealt with in the style of a modern small claims court. For every day legal purposes, the "Justice of the Peace" concept, in which lay persons met out justice in minor civil and criminal cases, are considered a pretty abysmal failure compared to status quo alternatives in places like New York State, where professional judges with graduate degrees in law in well organized state courts of record do a far better job. But, compared to a system like that of Liberia, which has only 22 judges (about a tenth of the number of judges per capita as Colorado), it looks attractive.

Both the civil law system, and the British, distinguish between a core group of litigators, and other lawyers with less formal credentials, reducing the size of the core group -- although the civil law system achieves this partially by having far more judges than common law systems do, per capita, and by entrusting much transactional legal work to the notary public's office.

The Roman legal system, one of the earliest, referred essentially all private law cases to rent-a-judges paid by the parties and largely independent of a formal court system, much like modern day arbitrators, another attractive option in a country with a weak state.

English law has its roots in the Norman Conquest, after which the occupying Army, itself in a military hierachy, divided up the conquered territory among Army officers, creating the foundations of the modern aristocracy, and granted each aristocrat the authority to met out justice in his own territory. Originally, this was mostly done directly by nobles hearing disputes between his subjects, but, eventually, this task became specialized and largely delegated to skilled specialist servants of the local ruler. The early Islamic empire, which fused religious and political authority followed a similar pattern, allocating the power to mete out justice largely to local rulers who often acted on the advice of educated servants.

Justice by general purpose local political leaders is another attractive alternative to bureacratic lawyer based justice, which, while it has its flaws, also offers a desirable alternative to the anarchy that prevails in much of the world today.

The notion that law without lawyers is a desirable thing is mostly a hoary myth that ignores the downside of that approach. But, as Justice Kennedy appropriately points out, the Rule of Law is a necessity that the much of the world can't afford to conduct American style.


A while back I noted (and I will update this post with the reference if I find it), a Denver study comparing criminal law outcomes between defendants represented by public defenders and those represented by private attorneys.

In cases that went to trial they did equally well, but private attorneys fared better during plea negotiations. It isn't clear if this was due to the nature of the cases (with the marginal good cases seeking private counsel) or if this was due to better lawyering.

A counterpoint to this is a recent study on attorney effectiveness in tax court, which compared settlement and trial outcomes in pro se cases to those in lawyered cases.
Interestingly, the study found that the presence of an attorney for the taxpayer significantly improved the taxpayer’s financial outcome in tried cases, an effect that increased with the experience of the attorney. No such effect existed in settled cases. Although the latter result initially is surprising, it highlights the paramount importance of procedural expertise in formal trial proceedings, as opposed to negotiations with the opposing party. The study also found that the presence of an attorney for the taxpayer did not affect time elapsed to trial or settlement. Thus, the study found that taxpayers’ attorneys, who generally are paid by the hour, neither prolonged disputes nor expedited their resolution but did significantly improve the financial outcomes of the cases they tried.
Thus, in tax, lawyers help at trial, but not in the civil equivalent of a plea bargain. This may indicate that having no lawyer at all, as opposed to a different kind of lawyer does matter at trial, and that the I.R.S. is considerably better at enforcing low level uniformity and discipline on its trial lawyers than most district attorneys' offices.


California has adopted a law providing legal representation at state expense in certain non-criminal family law, eviction and foreclosure suits. Previously, publicly appointed counsel was available only in criminal and termination of parental rights cases, and in rare cases where courts appoint counsel so that a position can be properly represented (often in appellate cases).

I've argued for something similar in the past, particularly in custody cases where the interest of the parties is significant, but the parties may all be indigent. The representation will be funded through court costs.

Those who think that it is more expensive to hire lawyers in these cases than to let the parties fumble though the court process should look at the tangles these cases routinely produe and then think again.


* We need to develop more middle ground in our economy and social class system between winner-take-all successes and those who are just getting by; to invigorate the middle class.

We . . . have a lot of valueable legal work that isn't done, or is done by overworked and underpaid idealists, because it is hard to make pay.  This includes a lot of family law in low asset/low income households, a lot of termination of parental rights litigation, a lot of criminal defense work for moderate to low income individuals, representation of consumer defendants in debt collection and eviction and foreclosure cases, a fair amount of probate litigation in low asset estates, and immigration law work in areas other than employer visas.  Lawyers with seven years of post-high school education are very expensive ways to meet the public need to counsel and advocacy in these areas, but many individuals who are involved in these kinds of disputes aren't qualified to represent themselves competently.  If independent specialized paraprofessionals who could just hand child custody cases, or just handle criminal defense work, or just handle immigration work could do these kind of cases with an associates or undergraduate pre-professional degree, rather than a law degree, unmet legal needs could be filled in an affordable way that is more competent than the status quo without really impacting the market for existing lawyers much, and a lot of middle class jobs would be created in the process.  In some cases, the most sensible way to handle these cases would be the way we handle most criminal cases - with their services provided by a government agency with professional employees on payroll, but this wouldn't have to be the case.

This has happened somewhat in the area of tax law, where certified financial planners and certified public accountants, tax preparers, and enrolled agents before the IRS fill the gap between what people need and what they can afford that lawyers cannot bridge.  In the area of bankruptcy, in theory, independent paraprofessionals are mere scrivners, but in practice, they subtly provide more guidance to bankruptcy petitioners than their formal duties suggest.  There is also a very small niche conceirge/personal assistant niche of people who help people with personal consumer disputes sometimes formalized as a "health care advocate" when it involves medical bills.

24 June 2015

War In The Drone Era


Drones And Extreme Automation Are Today's Technology, Not Vaporware.

The age of drone warfare is already here.

Unmanned armed aircraft have been regularly used by the U.S. to kill suspected terrorists and insurgents for more than a decade.  Cruise missiles and "smart bombs", which are even older, are likewise basically just suicidal drones.  Reconnaissance drones in the air and in the water come in sizes as small as hummingbirds and as large as Cold War era manned spy planes and 1930s airships.  There are drone cargo helicopters that have been used regularly in Afghanistan.

And, prototypes of drone aircraft carrier based unmanned fighter aircraft have done everything that a manned fighter aircraft can do (and more) in realistic tests.  Indeed, there is good reason to believe that drone fighter aircraft might outperform the best of the best manned fighter aircraft for the simple reason that they can withstand greater G-forces allowing for more complex maneuvers and because one can field a larger fleet of drones for one's money because drone aircraft will very soon be cheaper than manned aircraft because the former does not require expensive and engine capacity consuming life support systems for the pilot.  So far, the military has avoided those kinds of tests, in part, because they fear the conclusions that would be drawn for the future of the manned fighter fleet if the drones perform as expected.

There are also a variety of unmanned ground vehicles, some armed.  The remote controlled version of these area ready for prime time, although early battle field tests have revealed some weaknesses for smaller ones, like using civilian women and children whom the rules of engagement don't permit the ground drones to shoot to cover the ground drone's sensors with opaque cloth rendering it blind and useless.

Extrapolating drone technology to new platforms is increasingly a relatively trivial engineering problem now that model software programs exist to operate them and the electronics needed have become commercial off the shelf technology to a great extent.

Also, highly automated technologies short of true autonomous robots or remote controlled drones are also having an impact.  Gun turrets no longer need to have a vulnerable gunner in them exposed to hostile fire.  New, highly automated ships can operate with about 1/9th of the crews that were necessary as recently as Vietnam.

The number of people needed to run an artillery battery is much lower than it used to be, and "smart" artillery rounds, like the "smart bombs" used by aircraft, are now so accurate that perhaps 95% of artillery rounds fired will hit their targets, an order of magnitude or more above historical artillery accuracy.  So, it takes far fewer people to operate artillery batteries necessary to hit X number of targets per day than it did a generation ago.  Improved drone and spy satellite reconnaissance also means that target selection is far more accurate, although reducing the number of rounds that must be fired to destroy all known targets.

Just as "smart bombs" maneuver after being released to an intended target, "smart bullets" that do essentially the same thing after they have been fired from a sniper rifle are in workable prototype stage right now.  These bullets could make it feasible for snipers to hit distant targets that are moving in unpredictable ways, or that are behind cover such as a simple low wall that the bullet could maneuver around.

No One Knows What Mix Of Drones Is Best, Or How It Impacts The Current Mix Of Forces

While all the individual weapons platform technologies are now a reality, however, no one has really developed an overall tactical approach to exploiting these technologies most effectively.  There is no clear consensus on what mix of drones is needed.

For example, while it is now technologically possible, and indeed trivial given current technology, to use drone aircraft to deliver smart bombs, keeping human operators further from the fray, so far this hasn't been done.

No one has meaningfully re-evaluated how an increasingly accurate ability to deliver ordinance based upon real time quality visual reconnaissance and signals intelligence without putting any human operators close to where the ordinance will be delivered, tweaks the mix of air power resources, artillery resources, heavy ground forces in tanks, naval forces, old fashioned front line infantry, and behind the lines forward operating base personnel are needed in a modern military force.

For the most part, military procurement operates on autopilot, replacing old systems for comparable new systems on a one to one basis using mixes of forces established in World War II, Korea and Vietnam, before these transformative technologies arrived.

There has been some adjustment within the Army, of its relative balance of different kinds of capabilities, for example, with some heavy battle tank divisions replaced by medium weight Stryker brigades.  But, the U.S. military still haven't taken on the job of rebalancing its forces in light of modern capabilities at a larger scale.

For example, no one has seriously rethought issues like the relative roles of aircraft, submarines and surface combatants in naval warfare against other near peer surface combatants, since World War II, the last time that world had much significant naval warfare between navies, despite the fact that the scant available evidence suggests that the surface combatant component is much more vulnerable than the submarine and aircraft components of the anti-surface combatant warfare force of the military.

Likewise, no one had really made a principled determination about our relative need for small, medium and large drones that span the entire range of existing military hardware from handgun size class drones and smaller, to drones that rival the size of the largest warships.

Soon Our Opponents Will Use Drones Against Us And We Aren't Ready For That

Most problematically, given that drone and automation technology can proliferate much more easily than, for example, nuclear weapons or nuclear powered naval craft, because they are almost COTS technologies at this point, U.S. military planning related to drone warfare to date has been almost entirely devoted to how to wage offensive military operations with our drones, rather than to how to defend ourselves and our interests from attacks by drones operated by our opponents that are anything more sophisticated than a cell phone operated IED.

It is too late to interdict technologies like laptop computers, fly by wire model aircraft controls, cell phones, long distance wi-fi routers, and model fixed wing and rotary aircraft from the international market in a way that would be an effective barrier to a foreign military or a well organized and funded terrorist group.

Our navy, for example, struggles to figure out how to defend its ships and commercial ships that it is escorting, from attacks by swarms of missiles and/or small craft operated by nations such as Iran or North Korea.  Similarly, the U.S. Navy already struggles to a devise ways for its surface combatants to survive attacks from just one or two modern coastal submarines, or from a large number of sea mines with its limited anti-submarine warfare and anti-mine warfare systems.  But, this already difficult problem would be compounded greatly if a nation like this could simultaneously deploy hundreds of drones in the air, on the surface and underwater to attack of U.S. destroyer or commercial ships that it is escorting.

Nuclear weapons turned out to be less important in modern warfare than anticipated mostly because it is rare for obliteration of an entire city or metropolitan area civilians and all in a single overwhelmingly blow to be a military objective.  They are also expensive to build and require scarce materials.  Yet, usually, combatants who can afford to build or acquire nuclear weapons want to wrest political control of urban areas from somebody else, not to destroy it entirely.

But, drones and automation may have tools, like infantry support scale drones, that are better suited to more ordinary military objectives.  For example, a drone that can barge into a house in urban warfare and identify and kill any enemies who are a threat to soldiers seeking to occupy and control the neighborhood where the house is located without placing their own lives in undue danger.

Using drones in warfare against a near peer is very different from using drones in warfare that is highly asymmetric against guerrilla insurgent fighters, as the U.S. has done so far.

For example, a near peer might be able to jam remote control signals or GPS signals that a drone's operator relies upon to command and control it, or might shoot down satellites critical to the command and control and intelligence function, or might be able to use an electromagnetic pulse weapon to disable the electronics that run drones or automated systems.

Fighting mass produced drones on either side makes a war of attrition with a military force made up mostly of humans, a dismal prospect.  Even a 100-1 win loss ratio for the humans in drone-human engagements, can portend an eventual certain defeat of the human force if the other side can mass produce enough drones at a cost that it can afford.

Drones are also well suited to very long range, highly targeted missions.  One can imagine a small, stealthy glider sized "mother ship" drone traveling from North Korea or Algeria or China or Iran to the sky near a U.S. or European or Canadian or Japanese or South Korean city and releasing a smaller, shorter range drone with fire power equivalent to a handgun and tracking cell phone signals or using information provided by a forward observer with a cell phone-like targeting device, to assassinate a single targeted individual, perhaps a political leader or business leader or scientist or clergyman or a few armed guards at a targeted facility.  Or perhaps the final stage short range drone would drop a hand grenade sized bomb into a busy market or mall, or bus or train depot, or school or church, again from a launch area thousands of miles away.  The local spy culprit who identifies the target's location may be carrying nothing more incriminating than a civilian GPS and camera equipped cell phone to identity targets that has encryption software and calls an anonymous phone number or web address to convey its encoded targeting information.  The actual smart phone used in a particular operation (or at least its identifying SIM card) could be destroyed after each operation at a modest cost.

If the target is a fixed location, instead of an individual, like a particular office in a government building or a particular tourist attraction, aerial photography or a local cell phone or car navigation system user's data can be used to set GPS coordinates to which a fully automated armed drone can proceed to launch a surprise attack, eliminating defenses based on disrupting signals used to control the drone remotely.  Tracing the source of such an attack could also prove very difficult, particularly if the drone self-destructs either in the attack or in some remote location far from the scene of the attack where it would take a long time to recovery any useful information about the source.

It might be possible to design systems to protect a President or Prime Minister or chief military officer of a country from that kind of targeted attack, but it would be much more difficult to defend hundreds or thousands of possible targets that are almost as significant from that kind of attack.  And, as noted above, treaties will be worthless in preventing deadly drone technology from proliferating in the very near future.

Once again, the tale of modern warfare, in which offense almost always overcomes defense, will repeat itself.

23 June 2015

The Economics of Human Capital

Eric A. Hanushek, Jens Ruhose, Ludger Woessmann, "Human Capital Quality and Aggregate Income Differences: Development Accounting for U.S. States", NBER Working Paper No. 21295 (June 2015).
Although many U.S. state policies presume that human capital is important for state economic development, there is little research linking better education to state incomes. In a complement to international studies of income differences, we investigate the extent to which quality-adjusted measures of human capital can explain within-country income differences. 
We develop detailed measures of state human capital based on school attainment from census micro data and on cognitive skills from state- and country-of-origin achievement tests. Partitioning current state workforces into state locals, interstate migrants, and immigrants, we adjust achievement scores for selective migration. We use the new human capital measures in development accounting analyses calibrated with standard production parameters. 
We find that differences in human capital account for 20-35 percent of the current variation in per-capita GDP among states, with roughly even contributions by school attainment and cognitive skills. Similar results emerge from growth accounting analyses.
I have serious doubts about the narrowness of the definitions of human capital used and the methods used for determining them.  But, I'm not surprised that more educated states whose people come from states with higher test scores outperform those which lack these.

Human capital does not just mean intelligence or education,  Social capital, civil society, attitudes towards authority, self-organization, tolerance, facilitation of networking are at least, and shared values are at least as critical, and unlike IQ and educational achievement which is heavily influenced by IQ and highly correlated with it, social capital is not predominantly genetic in origin and hence more amenable to management with policy solutions.  Lots of human capital resides in cultures and groups, not in individual brain power.

This isn't to say that narrower definitions of human capital don't have a place in economics.  For example, the aggregate number of people with various kinds of health profession degrees and certifications may be a decent way of measuring human capital in the health care industry.  But, in less regulated fields, this approach has declining utility.

Furthermore, achievement scores from places of migration are very poor measures of migrant IQ or education, because migrants are well known to be highly atypical of their places of origin (see, e.g., the "fit immigrant" hypothesis).

This study also does not engage the literature of decreasing economic returns to education.  More education is still almost always better than less education at the individual, and increases in GDP have coincided with increases in average education.  But, returns to a given level of education vary greatly over time and from place to place.


22 June 2015

SCOTUS Shows Interest In Conditions Of Incarceration

In Kingsley v. Henderdrickson, the U.S. Supreme Court resolved a circuit split by holding that the standard of civil liability for excessive force for people incarcerated prior to trial and conviction under the Fourteenth Amendment's due process clause ("objective unreasonableness") was distinct from and lower than the standard of civil liability for excessive force for people incarcerated pursuant to a conviction ("reckless disregard for the prisoner's safety and rights") under the Eighth Amendment cruel and unusual punishment clause.

This is not as bold as step as Slate.com suggests, because almost every federal appeals court circuit other than the 7th Circuit already followed the standard set forth in Kingsley.  It is disappointing to see that Chief Justice John Roberts, and Justices Clarence Thomas and Antonin Scalia were unwilling to join the consensus on what should have been a very easy case legally.

But, Kingsley does set a clear national standard and entrenches a distinction between the treatment of pre-trial and post-conviction detainees in U.S. jails.

By itself, this is unremarkable, but it is notable when taken together with the off topic concurring opinion of Justice Kennedy in David v. Ayala, in which Justice Kennedy invites future judicial review of prolonged solitary confinement for everyone from inmates on death row (as in the case before the Court) to poor New York kids in pretrial detention for years because they can't make bail.

The full text of the June 18, 2015 opinion is worth restating here for reference purposes:
JUSTICE KENNEDY, concurring. My join in the Court’s opinion is unqualified; for, in my view, it is complete and correct in all respects. This separate writing responds only to one factual circumstance, mentioned at oral argument but with no direct bearing on the precise legal questions presented by this case.

In response to a question, respondent’s counsel advised the Court that, since being sentenced to death in 1989, Ayala has served the great majority of his more than 25 years in custody in “administrative segregation” or, as it is better known, solitary confinement. Tr. of Oral Arg. 43–44. Counsel for petitioner did not have a clear opportunity to enter the discussion, and the precise details of respondent’s conditions of confinement are not established in the record. Yet if his solitary confinement follows the usual pattern, it is likely respondent has been held for all or most of the past 20 years or more in a windowless cell no larger than a typical parking spot for 23 hours a day; and in the one hour when he leaves it, he likely is allowed little or no opportunity for conversation or interaction with anyone. Ibid.; see also Wilkinson v. Austin, 545 U. S. 209, 218 (2005); Amnesty International, Entombed: Isolation in the U. S. Federal Prison System (2014). It is estimated that 25,000 inmates in the United States are currently serving their sentence in whole or substantial part in solitary confinement, many regardless of their conduct in prison. Ibid.

The human toll wrought by extended terms of isolation long has been understood, and questioned, by writers and commentators. Eighteenth-century British prison reformer John Howard wrote “that criminals who had affected an air of boldness during their trial, and appeared quite unconcerned at the pronouncing sentence upon them, were struck with horror, and shed tears when brought to these darksome solitary abodes.” The State of the Prisons in England and Wales 152 (1777). In literature, Charles Dickens recounted the toil of Dr. Manette, whose 18 years of isolation in One Hundred and Five, North Tower, caused him, even years after his release, to lapse in and out of a mindless state with almost no awareness or appreciation for time or his surroundings. A Tale of Two Cities (1859). And even Manette, while imprisoned, had a work bench and tools to make shoes, a type of diversion no doubt denied many of today’s inmates.

One hundred and twenty-five years ago, this Court recognized that, even for prisoners sentenced to death, solitary confinement bears “a further terror and peculiar mark of infamy.” In re Medley, 134 U. S. 160, 170 (1890); see also id., at 168 (“A considerable number of the prisoners fell, after even a short [solitary] confinement, into a semi-fatuous condition . . . and others became violently insane; others, still, committed suicide”). The past centuries’ experience and consideration of this issue is discussed at length in texts such as The Oxford History of the Prison: The Practice of Punishment in Western Society (1995), a joint disciplinary work edited by law professor Norval Morris and professor of medicine and psychiatry David Rothman that discusses the deprivations attendant to solitary confinement. Id., at 184.

Yet despite scholarly discussion and some commentary from other sources, the condition in which prisoners are kept simply has not been a matter of sufficient public inquiry or interest. To be sure, cases on prison procedures and conditions do reach the courts. See, e.g., Brown v. Plata, 563 U. S. ___ (2011); Hutto v. Finney, 437 U. S. 678, 685 (1978) (“Confinement in a prison or in an isolation cell is a form of punishment subject to scrutiny under the Eighth Amendment”); Weems v. United States, 217 U. S. 349, 365–367 (1910). Sentencing judges, moreover, devote considerable time and thought to their task. There is no accepted mechanism, however, for them to take into account, when sentencing a defendant, whether the time in prison will or should be served in solitary. So in many cases, it is as if a judge had no choice but to say: “In imposing this capital sentence, the court is well aware that during the many years you will serve in prison before your execution, the penal system has a solitary confinement regime that will bring you to the edge of madness, perhaps to madness itself.” Even if the law were to condone or permit this added punishment, so stark an outcome ought not to be the result of society’s simple unawareness or indifference.

Too often, discussion in the legal academy and among practitioners and policymakers concentrates simply on the adjudication of guilt or innocence. Too easily ignored is the question of what comes next. Prisoners are shut away—out of sight, out of mind. It seems fair to suggest that, in decades past, the public may have assumed lawyers and judges were engaged in a careful assessment of correctional policies, while most lawyers and judges assumed these matters were for the policymakers and correctional experts.

There are indications of a new and growing awareness in the broader public of the subject of corrections and of solitary confinement in particular. See, e.g., Gonnerman, Before the Law, The New Yorker, Oct. 6, 2014, p. 26 (detailing multiyear solitary confinement of Kalief Browder, who was held—but never tried—for stealing a backpack); Schwirtz & Winerip, Man, Held at Rikers for 3 Years Without Trial, Kills Himself, N. Y. Times, June 9, 2015, p. A18. And penology and psychology experts, including scholars in the legal academy, continue to offer essential information and analysis. See, e.g., Simon & Sparks, Punishment and Society: The Emergence of an Academic Field, in The SAGE Handbook of Punishment and Society (2013); see also Venters et al., Solitary Confinement and Risk of Self-Harm Among Jail Inmates, 104 Am. J. Pub. Health 442 (March 2014); Metzner & Fellner, Solitary Confinement and Mental Illness in U. S. Prisons: A Challenge for Medical Ethics, 38 J. Am. Academy Psychiatry and Law 104–108 (2010).

These are but a few examples of the expert scholarship that, along with continued attention from the legal community, no doubt will aid in the consideration of the many issues solitary confinement presents. And consideration of these issues is needed. Of course, prison officials must have discretion to decide that in some instances temporary, solitary confinement is a useful or necessary means to impose discipline and to protect prison employees and other inmates. But research still confirms what this Court suggested over a century ago: Years on end of near-total isolation exact a terrible price. See, e.g., Grassian, Psychiatric Effects of Solitary Confinement, 22 Wash. U. J. L. & Pol’y 325 (2006) (common side-effects of solitary confinement include anxiety, panic, withdrawal, hallucinations, self-mutilation, and suicidal thoughts and behaviors). In a case that presented the issue, the judiciary may be required, within its proper jurisdiction and authority, to determine whether workable alternative systems for long-term confinement exist, and, if so, whether a correctional system should be required to adopt them.

Over 150 years ago, Dostoyevsky wrote, “The degree of civilization in a society can be judged by entering its prisons.” The Yale Book of Quotations 210 (F. Shapiro ed. 2006). There is truth to this in our own time.
We can expect to see petitions brought to the Court in response to this opinion, both on solitary confinement and excessive pre-trial confinement, and can expect to see a receptive Justice Kennedy together with the four liberal justices, ready to grant relief in response to them.

UPDATE:

On Solitary Confinement

News coverage here.

The blog Solitary Watch sums up some of the leading U.S. Supreme Court cases on the topic.

Some theories that one might advance:

* Solitary confinement on more than a brief, episodic basis in response to "hot" disciplinary issues related to control of a facility is punishment of a form not authorized by a jury in excess of what is reasonably expected when a sentence to a crime for a term of years is handed down.

* Solitary confinement on more than a brief, episodic basis in response to "hot" disciplinary issues related to control of a facility is a punishment not authorized for pre-trial detainees.

* Prolonged solitary confinement in its current form constitutes cruel and unusual punishment that violates the 8th Amendment when applied to juveniles, and in particular to juveniles in pre-trial confinement.

* Prolonged solitary confinement in its current form constitutes cruel and unusual punishment that violated the 8th Amendment in light of our growing understanding of its consequences and the way that it is used and applied.

Each of these theories, implicitly, offers the possibility that "solitary confinement lite" that is less harsh, might be permissible to maintain order or as a form of protective custody, even if it is cruel and unusual in its current customary form (e.g. a normal single sized cell, access to clothing and basic means of entertainment, more outside exercise time, and normal food, non-contact access to visitors for example by telephone or Face time).

Legislatures or jail and prison officials might be able to implement other kinds of policies without judicial intervention.  For example, the legislature might adopt a statute setting forth the grounds for which solitary confinement could be imposed for a duration of a particular length, and setting minimum standards for the conditions of solitary confinement, and provide for judicial review of violations of those standards.  Jail or prison officials could probably change solitary confinement policies simply by decree where no other legislation is in place.

On Pre-Trial Confinement Conditions and Duration

Another issue relates to pre-trial confinement and the right to a speedy trial, particularly for misdemeanors or minor felonies.

This is a huge issue.  About half of people incarcerated in jails (and about 21.5% of all persons incarcerated on any given day in the U.S. as of December 31, 2010) at any one time are pre-trial detainees, and most are face misdemeanor or minor felony charges upon which there is a significant chance that the ultimate sentence will be to probation, fines and other non-incarceration sentences, if the defendant is convicted at all.

U.S. incarceration as of December 31, 2010 was (figures cited from link below which used the source linked which has since produced updated numbers for more recent years showing a modest decline):

* 2,266,832 prisoners from a total population of 310,640,000 (730 per 100,000).
* Jails 866,782 (including about 487,369 pre-trial detainees - 56% of all persons in jail)
* State Prisons: 1,140,500
* Federal Prisons: 126,863

This is one of many factors causing the incarceration rate in different U.S. states to differ by a factor of ten from Louisiana at double the average rate at the high end to Maine at 20% of the average rate at the low end.

* Under the most limited version of this theory, all charges should be dismissed on speedy trial grounds in any case in which time served has exceeded the maximum possible sentence for the offense, regardless of the formal calculations that go into speedy trial statutes and the defendant's consent to delays.  For example, if the maximum sentence for shoplifting a backpack is 3 months, pre-trial detention on those charges should end after 3 months.

* Under more expansive versions of this theory, this should apply when time served is a majority of the maximum sentence, or when time served exceeds some smaller portion of the sentence (e.g. 1/3rd, 1/4th, 1/5th, 1/10th), or when time served exceeds the minimum sentence for the offense (particularly in the case of felonies that often have minimum and maximum sentences), or when time served exceeds the customary sentence in practice for similar offenses.  In the example above, the maximum pre-trial incarceration might be 6 and a half weeks under the majority of the sentence rule, and less under other rules.

Under either of these theories, good time in actual incarceration should count as time served in pretrial detention just as it would in post-conviction detention.

* More general rights for pre-trial detention conditions could also be established, requiring, basically, a significant difference in conditions of incarceration prior to trial and after conviction so that the former is clearly not punitive in nature.  For example, a right to non-attorney visitors, to access to one's own property while in prison unless shown to be a safety issue, a right to be addressed by name, a right to due process before disciplinary sanctions are imposed, a right to reasonable protections from fellow inmates upon a good faith expression of fear of abuse, etc.

* Juvenile pre-trial detainees, in turn, might have extra protections such as a right to regular visits from parents and guardians (even allowing parents and guardians to stay with the juvenile pending trial), a right not to be housed with adults, and shorter speedy trial deadlines that reflect the time urgency of developing juveniles relative to adults.

On Bail

Another related theory would be that bail should never exceed the maximum fine and court costs upon conviction plus the expected earnings of the defendant during the time period of maximum incarceration for the offense.  So, for example, if a full time, $10 an hour employee was detained for an offense punishable by up to 6 months in jail and a $1,000 fine plus $250 in court costs, the maximum bail would be $11,250.

Another theory on bail might be that pre-trial detention may only be authorized in misdemeanor cases where a defendant is indigent when there is specific individualized evidence showing a likelihood of flight or harm to the public prior to the hearing date, such as a previous failure to appear warrant, a lack of a fixed residence, a restraining order in existence at the time of arrest, or something similar.

Again, this could be implemented by policy (and indeed, one of the historically most successful policy changes has been to implement pre-bail hearing screening to allow most defendants to dispense with bail), in the judicial branch, prosecutor's office, or legislatively.  In the pertinent part, a 2010 post on this issue at this blog said:
[Bail supporters] argue that bail bonds save money by reducing pre-trial monitoring costs. Is this true? No. Denver's recent experience is typical:

The Pretrial Release program reviews the status of individual inmates to determine who can be released on bonds while they await trial. Denver County Court refers inmates who are judged to be safe to the Pretrial Release program. If this program determines that an inmate is judged safe enough to be in the community, they will be placed on a "personal recognizance bond" which often requires a monetary deposit, an electronic monitor and other safety precautions. So far the program has a success rate of over 82%.

Pretrial release programs in Denver cost $160,000 a year. They reduced the operating costs at the Denver Jail by $1,100,000 a year. Ignoring any impact on construction costs (which Denver has incurred whether it needs the beds or not for the foreseeable future), pre-trail release saves taxpayers about $6.88 for every dollar of program costs.
The 82% success rate is comparable to that of defendants on bail bonds. Industry supporters claim that: "We return 85 to 90 percent of all defendants in which we bond to the court system." But, this statistic would include not just defendants who appear in court, but also, defendants who fail to appear and then are brought back to court later on.
 
A similar program in Manhattan saved taxpayers more than three dollars for every dollar spent on the program. Pre-trial release evaluations take about an hour per case. In the large percentage of cases where it is found to be appropriate, this is far less than the cost of incarcerating that person, even briefly while they are seeking a secured bond. 
A program in Lee County, Florida not only saved much more money than the pre-trial release program costs, but also reduced the failure to appear rate from 18% before the program was established to 8% after it was put in place. 
A recent program in Broward County, Florida saved $20 million and eliminated the need for a new jail. 
The U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Iowa has also recently implemented a pre-trial release program with great success. The program produced impressive results in just two years of implementation, saving $1.7 million, making pre-trial release more frequent, and reducing failure to appear rates and pre-trial new criminal activity:

This is also true closer to home. In Larimer County, Colorado (home to Fort Collins), in 2007, "the rate of defendants failing to appear for court appearances is less than 2 percent for the pretrial program compared with 12.6 percent for bond agents." The budget for Larimer County's pre-trial release program is "$974,000 from the county general fund and $75,000 in client fees," while the program "saved the county $3.5 million last year by facilitating the release and supervision of arrestees who otherwise would be occupying costly jail cells. And . . . the pretrial service resulted in an additional $474,000 savings by working with the probation department to streamline the sentencing process." Thus, pre-trial services in Larimer, County, Colorado saves 4 dollars in taxpayer costs for every dollar it spends, and has a much lower failure to appear rate than defendants on bail bonds. Larimer County elected officials oppose Colorado Proposition 102.
Overall, a 2008 study found that Colorado's pre-trial release programs have some of the lowest failure to appear (averaging under 5%) and re-arrest rates (averaging under 1%) of any programs of this kind in the country, and some of the lowest operating costs. They are "very well regarded by law enforcement, prosecution, and the courts in the jurisdictions they serve." They serve 80% of the population in Colorado.
Jefferson County, Colorado used reductions in incarceration as a result of pre-trial services work to make its jail available to other jurisdictions as a profit center, and its program staff have secured substantial grants to provide its services at below cost, and has returned some budgeted funds to the county general fund. 
Even the elected sheriff in conservative El Paso County, which doesn't have a pre-trial release program, opposes Colorado Proposition 102 [which would have "prohibit the release of anyone arrested for a felony or violent misdemeanor, and anyone who is a repeat nonviolent misdemeanor offender on a unsecured bond under the supervision of pretrial services."] and thinks it might be constitutionally flawed:
"It's going to affect our mentally ill population, it's going to affect our indigent population," Maketa said. "In fact, I think it creates such a disparity between people that are indigent and those that are not that it could have some legal challenges."

Similarly: 

Mesa County, home to Grand Junction, Colorado, on the Western Slope, has had success using pre-trial release. The Sheriff's Office website notes that: "Beginning January 2003 we began an innovative approach in trying to reduce jail population. The goal was not just to reduce the population, instead to ensure that the right types of people were incarcerated. We began focusing on the Pre-trial and sentenced inmate population." 
Douglas County, Colorado, which is a suburban county to the South of Denver and North of Colorado springs, has a pre-trial release program in which the failure to appear rate in 2008 for 499 felony case and 659 misdemeanor cases was just 3%. 
It turns out that the quality of pre-trial release program effectiveness has a lot to do with how well its fits best practices in the field. "The county level models indicate that there is surprisingly robust explanatory capacity for the county level variables on failure to appear and rearrest." Well run programs like Colorado's, that adhere to best practices nationally and work to constantly improve their release models, are far more effective than the national average at a highly statistically significant level. 
Data arguing that pre-trial release programs are ineffectual often use flawed data, for example, lumping defendants who were not required to post bail or participate in a pre-trial release supervision program with those who were in a pre-trial release supervision program. These apples to oranges comparisons obscure the effectiveness of programs like those in place in Colorado, where the program is particularly well run, and empirically validated instruments are used to determine who should be eligible for release on a personal recognizance bond, rather than mere intuition. 
The instruments that pre-trial release agencies use to score criminal defendants and determine if they are appropriate to release before trial without a secured bond don't allow just anyone to be released before trial. Regular studies of how is and is not likely to fail to appear, or to re-offend prior to trial are carried out. The data show that the offense charged and someone's prior record does matter, and that does enter into the assessment. But, ties to the community also have a dramatic impact on the likelihood that someone will fail to appear. 
In the absence of pre-trial release programs, courtroom demeanor is a major factor in making bail decisions, despite the fact that studies have failed to show that courtroom demeanor has a close relationship to future failure to appear rates or reoffense pending trial rates.
A typical risk assessment instrument, such as one used in Racine County, New York, assigns points to each criminal defendant facing trial based on a variety of factors. Points are assigned for the following circumstances that result in a total score of 0-14 points:
Most serious charge is less serious than Misdemeanor or Felony Add 0 points
Most serious charge is a Misdemeanor Add 1 point 
Most serious charge is a Felony Add 2 points 
Charges include a drug offense (felony or misdemeanor) Add 2 points 
Defendant has a prior conviction Add 2 points 
Defendant has 2 or more prior convictions Add 1 point 
Defendant has a prior failure to appear Add 2 points 
Defendant has a prior arrest/charge while on bail Add 1 point 
Defendant has not been employed the past 2 years Add 2 points 
Defendant is not the primary care giver Add 1 point 
Defendant has not lived at the residence for a year or longer Add 1 point
A score of 0-4 points is low risk, 5-9 points is medium risk and 10-14 points is high risk.
The impact of the nature of the offense on the risk that someone poses, as demonstrated by experience, is sometimes counterintuitive. For example, "being charged with a felony against a person – decreased the odds of a defendant committing pretrial crime and of failing to appear in court." High risk offenders aren't granted the option of pre-trial release without a secured bond. But, experience has shown that someone charged with a violent felony who has no prior criminal record, owns a home, has a job, and has strong ties to the community is much more likely to show up in court, and to not reoffend pending trial, than someone charged with relatively minor offenses who has little to tie him to the community.
In places where these risk assessments are used, like Racine County, pre-trial release failures are similar to those in Colorado, about 5%, and far lower than the national average.
The empirically validated risk assessments done by pre-trial release programs aren't just used to determine who should be released without a secured bond program prior to trial either. They are also used by judges to set bail appropriately in cases where a secured bond will be required, and to determine whether defendants will be eligible for probation if convicted. Requiring a secured bond doesn't help enforce compliance if the bond is set too low, and the pre-trial release assessment instrument helps judges to set that amount appropriately. So, it makes the system work better for defendants who are required to obtain bail bonds as well.
And, the savings to taxpayers aren't the whole story. The pretrial release program also allows thousands of criminal defendants to escape the need to pay bail bond fees, allowed hundreds of criminal defendants to be free pending trial, and helped many of these defendants hold onto jobs they otherwise would have lost. As a result of pre-trial release, the accused are punished after they are found guilty and only if they are guilty, not before they are found guilty or are acquitted.
17,000 days in jail. That's how many bed days were saved last year by the enhanced Pretrial Release program funded by the Crime Prevention and Control Commission. At a cost of just over $160,000, the program eliminates the need for over 50 beds per year, saving about $60,000 in construction costs and $22,000 in operating costs per bed. 
[T]he Southern District of Iowa was able to substantially increase the utilization of alternatives to detention resulting in a pretrial release rate increase of 15% while assuring court appearance and community safety. In fact, the increased pretrial release rate was accompanied by an increase in court appearance rate by 2.6% and decreases in both new alleged criminal activity rate (1.7% decrease) and revocations due to technical violations (2.8% decrease) for defendants released pending trial.
El Paso County currently does not use pre-trial release. Nevertheless, Sheriff Terry Maketa says [Colorado Proposition 102] could harm poorer defendants who couldn't post bail.
"This isn't about fighting crime," says Arapahoe County Sheriff Grayson Robinson. "This in my mind only benefits the for-profit bond industry in Colorado."
Alternatives to pre-trial release on personal recognizance include statutory fines (or court contempt power policies) for failure to appear, so that only non-compliance individuals are punished.

Colorado passed HB 13-1236 on May 11, 2013 with a goal of reducing pre-trial incarceration.

Where flight, and not further harm to the public are at issue, techno-corrections measures like ankle tracking bracelets could be used in lieu of pre-trial incarceration.

It also wouldn't be stunningly expensive to establish a non-profit to post bond for indigent individuals in cases where the amount is modest relative to the charge faced at trial to allow them to avoid costly detention.

19 June 2015

A Modest Proposal

Consider this proposal for a law, and I am only half tongue in cheek here, enacted using the grant of Congressional enforcement powers under the final sections of the 13th, 14th and 15th Amendments to the United States Constitution, respectively:
1.  An "Unreconstructed Government" shall mean any state, county, city, or other governmental entity that as a matter of official policy, or as a matter of practice without ratification in an official policy (or contrary to a statement in an official policy), makes use of any of the distinctive symbols of the Confederate State of America, or a substantially similar symbol, or uses the name of any politician of the Confederate State of America to name any building, department, part of a building, or program. 
2. In any civil action, or in any motion filed or legal action taken in any civil or criminal or administrative case in any state, or local or federal court or administrative proceeding, in which it is alleged that an Unreconstructed Government, or an officer, employee or agent of that Unreconstructed Government acted with an intent to discriminate against a person on account of race or ethnicity, because a person is not a native born non-Hispanic white individual, this intent shall be presumed.  This presumption may be overcome only with proof beyond a reasonable doubt to the contrary.
Thus, for example, in an employment discrimination lawsuit, or Batson challenge, or suit alleging that a state patrol officer acted in a racially discriminatory manner with South Carolina, which is an "Unreconstructed Government" as defined in the statute, the person claiming discrimination would automatically establish that intent unless the State of South Carolina overcame that presumption with proof beyond a reasonable doubt.

Governments make symbolic statements and this law would not bar them from doing so.  But, it is well within the scope of federal power under the Reconstruction Amendments to make reasonable efforts to define the statement that a governmental entity makes when it uses those symbols, in a manner that reflects their widely understood meaning.

Flying a Confederate flag, just like burning a cross, has a well defined meaning in the American historical context which everyone on both sides of the issue of whether those symbols are used understands perfectly well.

If a government wants to make those statements, coded in symbols, however, it needs to live with the consequences of its acts, like losing cases where it claims, insincerely to be saying something else, in the Courts.

States like South Carolina, which has flown the Confederate battle flag since 1962, and which recently experienced a white supremacist murder of nine people at a prayer meeting in a historically black church which was intended to "start a race war," would have to decide if they wanted to pay that price.

The hope, of course, is that so shamed and so made to pay the consequences of their acts, that the Unreconstructed Governments in the United States would "voluntarily" change their ways in a way that created a new cultural reality, just as anti-discrimination laws have done in the private sector despite the fact that they are extremely hard to enforce in many contexts such as initial hiring of employees for open positions.

Many "moderates" are willing to make racist statements with symbols if there are no consequences for their actions, but would change their tune if they were forced to own their symbolic statements.

18 June 2015

Publicity, Not Secrecy, Is The Secret To Catching Culprits (Again)

A woman heading in to work at a florist shop in North Carolina Thursday morning led police to a man accused of gunning down nine people at a historic African-American church in South Carolina the night before.

Debbie Dills spotted the black car being driven by alleged gunman Dylann Roof at around 10:20 a.m. and called a friend, who notified police, NBC station WCNC in Charlotte reported.

"I paid close attention to the pictures on TV, but I thought, 'No. It can't be him,'" Dills, of Gastonia, N.C., told the station. "I noticed the car. And I noticed the boy's haircut," Dills said.

Dills, who was on her way to work at Frady's Florist, followed the black Hyundai along Highway 74 while the man she called, Fred Frady, called Kings Mountain Police, who notified Shelby Police and led to Roof's arrest, the station reported.

Roof, 21, is accused of opening fire at a Bible study meeting at Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston at around 9 p.m. Wednesday, killing nine people, including the church pastor, the Rev. Clementa C. Pinckney, who is also a state senator.
From NBC News.

To be clear, I don't presume, at this point, that Roof is definitely guilty or definitely innocent. Police identified him as a suspect, for reasons I don't know, and made the information public.  That question depends upon the evidence that was used to identify the suspect.  But, there is no doubt that sharing information about the person who they suspected widely and publicly was pivotal to apprehending their suspect who was hours of driving and a state line away from the scene of the crime.

Earlier reports had attributed the arrest to an apparently random traffic stop, but it turns out from this report that the stop wasn't nearly as random as it was first described as being.

17 June 2015

The Non-Monetary Care Giving Economy

Not all of the goods and services produced in the U.S. economy are part of the monetary market economy.  Some are provided within the families or to other loved ones outside the monetary economy.

A  new study comprehensively describes this non-monetary part of our economy. "The study estimates the value of unpaid care nationwide at $691 billion in 2012, roughly 4.3 percent of the country's GDP."

Teen Births At All Time U.S. Low

Preliminary date from 2014 show that the teen birth rate in the United States is the lowest it has ever been in U.S. history.
The preliminary birth rate for teenagers in 2014 was 24.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15–19—yet another historic low for the nation. The rate was down 9% from 2013 (26.5) and has declined more than 7% annually since 2007. Since the most recent peak in 1991 (61.8), the rate has declined a total of 61%. In 2014, the preliminary number of births to women aged 15–19 was 249,067, down 9% from 2013 and 44% from 2007 (444,899).

In 2014, the preliminary birth rates for teenagers aged 15–17 and 18–19 fell 11% and 7%, respectively, to 10.9 and 43.8 births per 1,000 women, another record low for both groups, from 12.3 and 47.1 in 2013.

Since 2007, the rate for teenagers aged 15–17 has declined more than 9% annually, and the rate for those aged 18–19 has declined nearly 7% annually. The number of births for teenagers aged 15–17 declined 11% from 2013 to 2014, and births to those aged 18–19 declined 8%.

The birth rate for teenagers aged 10–14 was 0.3 births per 1,000 in 2014, unchanged from 2013, the historic low for the nation. The number of births to mothers in this age group declined 11% in 2014, to 2,771 births.
Near record post-Roe v. Wade abortion rates for teenagers are largely a product of the same factor that has led to lower birth rates for teenagers, which is a reduced number of pregnancies, in significant part due to increased use of birth control.

Birth rates, in general, have been declining since 2007, mostly due to the financial crisis, and just recovered for the first year since then in 2014 with overall U.S. births up 1%.  The "Baby Recession" was correlated rather strongly with local unemployment rates.

C-sections, low risk C-sections, and pre-term deliveries are down for every ethnic group.  Increased births to mothers 35 years of age and older, particularly among better educated women is making up for reduced numbers of teen births.

On the whole, it is just about the best news we could have in the vital statistics department.  This will likely translate into reduced poverty, and in particular reduced child poverty, in the U.S. for decades.

The declines in teen birthrates are present in every racial and ethnic group measured, although there are very significant differences in teen birth rates by race and Hispanic origin (for which the most recent available data is in 2013).

U.S. teen birthrates are not particularly low by international standards, however.

China's Securities Markets Still In A Bubble

About 97% of the profits that manufacturers in China earned in the last year were from a 60% increase in the value of the investment securities that they held, while their profits from operations rose by only 0.09%.

15 June 2015

Quote of the Day

There’s plenty of real stupidity in the world; we don’t need to… critique… imaginary stupidity.
- Paul Krugman.

14 June 2015

Kansas Explained

Why is Kansas so conservative, to the point of dysfunction?

One of the key factors is that it has two major cities that make up half the state, which are highly atypical.  The poor urban core of Kansas City is in Missouri, and Wichita, due to a lack of natural boundaries, has a very low population density.  Also, neither of its major cities is home to a major university.

Another key point is that Kansas is seeing the rural areas and small towns that make up 98% of its land decline in population to the point where economies of scale for basic services are breaking down, except in areas experiencing large amounts of immigration for farm related industries that remain poor.

12 June 2015

Interstate Alienation Of Affections

A very small number of states, including Mississippi, still authorize civil lawsuits for "alienation of affections" in which a married person sued a third party who has sex or an affair with the married person's spouse.

So far, those lawsuits have not been held unconstitutional (despite the issue being cleanly presented to the U.S. Supreme Court for review if it wished to consider the issue), although the vast majority of U.S. states have abolished such lawsuits and it is a crime in Colorado to file, or seek to obtain a settlement of, such a claim.

But, what is someone from a state other than Mississippi that does not recognize an alienation of affects cause of action, in a place other than Mississippi that does not recognize an alienation of affections cause of action, has an affair with a married Mississippian and is sued by that married Mississippian's spouse.  Can the spouse sue the "other man" or "other woman" in Mississippi for alienation of affections?

The Mississippi Supreme Court has ruled, 7-2, that he may, if the "other man" or "other woman" knew that the spouse was from Mississippi, but that he may not if the "other man" or "other woman" did not know that the spouse was from Mississippi.

This implicates a field of law known as "choice of laws".  Historically, great emphasis was placed in both jurisdiction and choice of law, on the place that a critical fact was tied to, like the execution of a contract, or the place that a tortious act took place.

But, more recently, courts have looked to whether there are "significant connections" between the state whose law is to be applied (often the law of the forum state) and the events that took place.  Hence, an automobile accident involving two people from Mississippi that takes place in California might be subject to Mississippi law rather than California law.  Decisions like this one can flow from that approach and from the due process emphasis of the constitutional law of personal jurisdiction that requires someone to "purposefully avail themselves" of a state's laws by their actions in order to be subject to its jurisdiction.

Friday Fun: Dinosaur Zoo Liability Issues

Jurassic World will be opening soon. There is only one thing on my mind: What is the liability for a zoo full of dinosaurs that start eating people? Seriously, who is their insurance carrier? Exactly how big was the retainer for the law firm representing them? Are there plaintiffs law firms that specialize in dinosaur bite cases? Do state bar associations offer certifications in dinosaur law? Will Jurassic World at least have one lawyer who does not get eaten this time?
Answer can be found at The Legal Geeks blog.

The frightening part is that I could easily answer all of the questions except the last one, off the cuff.

A Little Justice At Microsoft

I've repeatedly expressed my intense distaste for Windows 8. So, it comes as a small comfort to know that there were consequences at Microsoft for the people who foisted this abomination on the world:
Most of the Windows 8 team's leadership resigned or were fired.
In an ideal world, the consequences would have been even more dire, but it is nice to know that, at least internally, Microsoft acknowledged that this piece of software was a debacle.

Military Commission Conviction Thrown Out

A federal appeals court on Friday set aside the military commission conviction of a Guantanamo Bay detainee [Ali Hamza al-Bahlul] who allegedly produced an al-Qaida recruiting video and served as Osama bin Laden's personal assistant and public relations secretary.
From the Associated Press. The decision came in a 2-1 ruling of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit announced today.

Bahlul had originally been convicted of "material support for terrorism, solicitation of others to commit war crimes, and inchoate conspiracy to commit war crimes" by a Military Commission. "Bahlul’s convictions for material support and solicitation" were vacated in 2014 "as violative of the Ex Post Facto Clause of the U.S. Constitution, see Bahlul v. United States, 767 F.3d 1 (D.C. Cir. 2014), and [the D.C. Circuit] remanded Bahlul’s remaining challenges to his conspiracy conviction to the original panel, see id. at 31."

The Ex Post Facto ruling noted that "material support for terrorism" and "solicitation of others to commit war crimes" were enacted as crimes in the wake of 9-11,but that the acts that were prosecuted by the Military Commission took place before 9-11.

The issue was whether a "law of war" military tribunal had jurisdiction to try the offense of "conspiracy to commit war crimes" which is a violation of U.S. criminal law, but is not a violation of the law of war.  The majority also concluded that this was a question of the subject-matter jurisdiction of the military tribunal that could not be waived or forfeited at trial (where this issue was not raised by Bahlul's lawyers).

Some of the hardest issues presented (like the scope of the "law of war") were stipulated to by the parties or conceded by the government on appeal:
The parties agree that Bahlul was tried by a law of war military commission that had jurisdiction to try charges for offenses against the law of war as defined in Quirin. The government concedes that conspiracy is not a violation of the international law of war. See U.S. Appellee’s Br. to the En Banc Court at 34 (July 10, 2013). The question, therefore, is whether a law of war military commission may try domestic offenses — specifically conspiracy — without intruding on the judicial power in Article III.
The majority of the D.C. Circuit panel found that a "law of war military commission" may not try violations of U.S. criminal laws that are not violations of the international law of war, and that there third conviction of Bahlul must be therefore be vacated.

In doing so, it concluded that the Military Commission exception to the constitutional requirement that all federal crimes be prosecuted in civilian Article III courts, was a narrow one, limited to three specific kinds of military tribunals with historical precedents enumerated by the U.S. Supreme Court in prior cases, that the "law of war" type of military commission was the only one of the three exceptions applicable to this case, and that "law of war" military commissions have jurisdiction only over offenses that both the international community and the United States recognize as violations of the law of war.

This ruling dramatically narrows the utility of Military Commission trials as a means of handling terrorism prosecutions, while not impairing the repeatedly proven capacity of the civilian Article III federal courts to prosecute terrorism cases.

Also, the practical impact of the ruling in the life of Bahlul should not be overstated.  Despite the fact that his military commission convictions have all been overturned on legal grounds, he continues to be detained indefinitely, for the "duration of the hostilities" as an enemy combatant at Guantanamo Bay by the U.S. military.

He will continue to be detained an an enemy combatant until the military decides to release him in its own discretion, or a court determines that the Authorization To Use Military Force enacted in 2001 no longer has any force or effect, because his role, established by the military commission, while not a crime in violation of the international laws of war, clearly establishes that he is an "enemy combatant" as that term has been defined under the AUMF and by the U.S. Supreme Court in its military commission cases.

Thus, this case is more of a repudiation of George W. Bush's military commission's policy and a precedent that may be useful in future times of war and terror hysteria in the nation, than it is a precedent of practical current importance.