16 January 2025

Anti-Tank Warfare And Attrition In Ukraine

Tanks really only make sense against adversaries who don't have anti-tank weapons, and they aren't very useful as anti-tank weapons themselves. 

Heavy armored formations and mechanized units engineered for dispersed, yet “linear” attacks to penetrate and hold enemy territory are not likely disappearing anytime soon as a critical element of modern Combined Army Maneuver, yet there is little question that the warfare in Ukraine is re-defining certain key ground-war tactics in favor of lightweight, de-centralized, agile and ground-fired anti-tank weapons used by dispersed, dismounted forces and fast, light tactical vehicles. When combined with precise overhead surveillance, unmanned systems and some measure of effective networking, Ukrainians armed with shoulder-fired anti-armor weapons continue to exact a devastating toll upon Russian assault platforms.

A significant Army Intelligence Report called the “The Operational Environment 2024-2034 Large-Scale Combat Operations.” (US Army Training and Doctrine Command, G2) says that Russia’s entire active duty tank force has been destroyed in its war with Ukraine.

“Ukrainian Armed Forces have used vast quantities of man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS), antitank guided missiles, and FPV UAS—combined with fires—to great effect. As of July 2024, Russia has lost 3,197 main battle tanks—more than its entire active-duty inventory at the outset of conflict—and 6,160 armored fighting vehicles, forcing them to pull increasingly obsolescent systems from storage,” the text of the report from 2024 states.

From Warrior Maven.

As I noted in a previous post, Russia has lost more than 2/3 of its major military systems and is on track to have lost about 3/4 of them by the third anniversary of the war on February 24, 2025. 

Ukraine has the clear advantage when it comes to replacing major military systems. The U.S. and other NATO countries are giving Ukraine large amounts of modern major military systems. Russia has only feeble domestic industrial capacity to build such systems in quantity, in contrast, and is pretty much limited to what it can buy from Iran and what North Korea will give it. China hasn't shut out Russia entirely but isn't arming it either. Ukraine's domestic war production has also been impressive. For example, it has built and used at least 1.2 million armed drones.

As many of 750,000 Russian troops (including their North Korean allies) may have died, been injured, or captured by that time, a number which already exceeds 600,000. Russia's active duty military personnel at the start of the war numbered 900,000, of which 300,000 to 500,000 were navy and air force personnel. Russian casualties equal or exceed the total number of ground forces that it had at the outset of the war.

The best estimates are that 11,000-12,000 North Korean troops have joined the fight. But multiple thousands of them are already casualties in their first few weeks in action. Apparently, North Korean troops are being used as cannon fodder in mass human wave attacks reminiscent of World War I and the Russo-Japanese War - tactics that were discredited a century ago.

Russia has the advantage when it comes to replacing casualties with new conscripts and forces like mercenaries and North Korean soldiers, because it has a much larger population than Ukraine and Ukraine's allies are not yet lending it troops. But neither combatant has any significant capacity to replace seasoned military officers who are lost in the conflict in the short term.

College Application Season Is Over

I have a nephew and the daughter of a close family friend who have been applying to colleges this academic year. 

The latest application deadlines for almost all of the even remotely selective institutions for fall admission (some non-selective institutions have rolling admissions) are on January 15 (some are earlier). So, now, all of the applications are out and they are waiting to see if they get thick envelopes or thin envelopes in the mail in a few months.

15 January 2025

Perceptions Of Crime

Crime going into the 2024 election was at the lowest level since 1969. But Republicans and independents didn't know that, because their political leaders lied to them and third-parties weren't emphatic enough and trusted by them enough to counteract that.



Also from Kevin Drum: "The 2020 Murder Spike Was COVID all along."

Who Is At Fault?

An interesting take on the failures that led to this mess. I would put Joe Biden lower. I would put assign some non-SCOTUS judges some blame. I would assign the Democratic Party some blame, although far down the list.
All I know is that the following people are responsible for where we are today. In ascending order of importance:
  1. Joe Biden, who defeated Trump in 2020 but due to a combination of hubris, age, and ego stayed in the 2024 race far too long, stacking the deck against anyone who challenged Donald Trump;
  2. Merrick Garland, who took way too long to mobilize any serious Justice Department investigation into Trump’s myriad felonies;
  3. The Supreme Court of the United States, who repeatedly, persistently evinced zero interest in applying any legal or constitutional constraint on Donald Trump. As a result, no future president will feel constrained in any way whatsoever by the Emoluments Clause, Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment, or, as it turns out, pretty much any law that might otherwise restrict the President of the United States;
  4. Mitch McConnell, who could have tipped the scales on Trump’s second impeachment (and made it pretty clear afterwards how he felt about Trump) but, in the end, did not vote to convict;
  5. Congressional Republicans, who acted and sounded pretty goddamn terrified when the rioters attacked on January 6th. If they had all decided to jump at once and vote to impeach and then convict Trump, his political power would have evaporated. Instead, scared of their own partisans, they capitulated to Trump;
  6. Donald J. Trump, who whipped his supporters into a frenzy, attempted to organize slates of alternate electors, refused to recognize the results of any election that he has lost, and has promised to pardon those who violated laws to serve his interests. And finally.
  7. The American people, who had plenty of opportunities not to vote for Trump again. In early 2024, Republicans could have gone to the polls and selected a Trump clone who had not committed multiple felonies. In November 2024 voters could have gone to the polls and selected a different candidate who, to repeat a theme, had not committed multiple felonies. And yet, in the end, a plurality voted for the toddler.

U.S. Political Theory Musings

Federal Constitutional Law

Would state boundaries have been adjusted, and would state divisions and mergers, have been more common but for the state-centric structure of the Electoral College and the U.S. Senate? As it is, splitting a state, or merging two states, changes the political balance. Perhaps the best guidance would be to look at how county boundaries within states have changed over time.

Would there have been less resistance to granting statehood to D.C., Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, American Samoa, and Guam, but for the state-centric structure of the Electoral College and the U.S. Senate? This would still dilute the power of the existing states in Congress and (apart from D.C.) in Presidential elections, but only modestly.

Would a constitutional amendment to give D.C., Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, American Samoa, and Guam (and any subsequent new territories that are not U.S. states), the same representation in the U.S. House that they would have if they were U.S. states be politically viable? While giving territories that are not U.S. states seats in the U.S. Senate are barred from even being constitutional amendments, the same limitation does not apply to the U.S. House.

A constitutional amendment to directly elect the President would have wide support in every, or almost every state, even small states that benefits from the status quo.

A constitutional amendment weakening the U.S. Senate vis-a-vis the U.S. House would presumably be constitutional, since no state would be deprived of its equal representation in the U.S. Senate. For example, what if legislation that was passed in the U.S. House, but not passed in the U.S. Senate within eight months, could become law if it was readopted in the U.S. House with a 60% majority and signed by the President? What is approval of Presidential appointments and treaties was transferred from the U.S. Senate to the U.S. House? What if a Presidential veto could be overturned by voting to override the veto in both houses by majority vote?

Congress could, by statute, authorize or mandate proportional representation in elections for the U.S. House within each state, eliminating gerrymandering.

Why didn't the Founders have Congress, sitting in joint session, elect the President, rather than having a separate electoral college? It would have had the same political balance between U.S. states. It would have left voters with a single thing to vote on in federal elections prior to the direct election of Senators. It would have avoided national election recounts. It probably would have made the President more responsive to Congress. Better yet, what if the President could be replaced by a vote of a joint session of Congress at any time, in lieu of impeachment.

A constitutional amendment to reduce the number of Senators from 2 to 1 per state, or from 2 to 3 per state (with one elected every two years) would be constitutional, and either approach would make more sense, except that it would unbalance the electoral college (which an increase in the size of the U.S. House could fix).

Presidential Ballot Access

24 candidates were listed on the ballot in at least one state and over 100 candidates were registered as a write-in candidate in at least one state.

Third-party and independent candidates received 2.13% of the vote in the 2024 election, totaling over three million votes. This is slightly more than the 2020 United States presidential election, when third party candidates received 1.86%.

Green Party nominee Jill Stein received the most votes of any third-party candidate, receiving 868,945 votes (0.56%). She received 1.09% of the vote in Maryland, her best state by percentage. Stein also received over one percent of the vote in Maine and California. This was also the first election since 2000 that the Green Party finished third nationwide, and the first since 2008 that the Libertarian Party failed to.

Withdrawn independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 757,371 votes (0.49%). Kennedy's 1.96% in Montana was the highest statewide vote share of any third-party candidate. Kennedy also received over one percent of the vote in Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington, and West Virginia.

Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver received 650,120 votes (0.42%). He was the only third-party candidate to be on the ballot or a registered write-in candidate in every state + D.C. Oliver received 1.69% in North Dakota, his best state by percentage. Oliver also received over one percent of the vote in Utah and Wyoming.

No other candidate reached one percent of the vote in any state. "None of these candidates" received 19,625 votes (1.32%) in Nevada.

Party for Socialism and Liberation nominee, Claudia De la Cruz received 167,772 votes (0.11%). 

From Wikipedia.

Trump's popular vote margin was 1.5 percentage points, which was less than the percentage of votes cast for third-party candidates. None of the third-party candidates came anywhere close to winning even a single electoral vote.

It would be possible to greatly shorten the Presidential ballot without unduly impacting the ability of any candidate with a meaningful chance of winning even a single electoral vote or influencing the ultimate outcome in any state, making ballots for voters simpler.

One plausible threshold for ballot access would be to require candidates for the Presidency to affiliate with a political party having at least one elected official in federal, state, or local elected office. Most of the candidates would be eliminated that way, but none of the viable candidates would be, nor would the Green Party or Libertarian party candidates who did best of all of the third-party candidates who were still running on election day.

Another plausible threshold for ballot access would be to require candidates to have previously held a statewide elective office (for state or federal office) or as Vice President, or a cabinet post, or to have served as a general in the U.S. military. Trump, when first elected, is the only President ever to have failed to meet this threshold.

Congress could pass legislation overcoming the SCOTUS nullification of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment's ban on insurrectionists holding political office in the U.S. (which was a horrible decision not supported by the language of the constitution or its structure or many past precedents).

It would make sense to have a uniform set of candidates for President nationally, although the mechanics could be tricky. The current Presidential primary system isn't optimal, is long, and deprives lots of people in lots of states of any meaningful say in the process.

State and Local Politics

State legislatures have been required as a matter of U.S. constitutional law to apportion seats in their state house and state senate in the same way since the 1960s. Why has only Nebraska shifted to a unicameral system?

Why hasn't even a single state deviated from the single member district system in any house of its state legislature? Some form of proportional representation could eliminate gerrymandering, isn't prohibited by the U.S. Constitution or federal law, and could be put in place by citizens initiative even if the two major political parties were opposed to it?

Why does essentially every U.S. state have the same political parties for federal office as it does for state and local offices? Only a handful of U.S. states have roughly a 50-50 balance between the two major political parties. But almost all of them would be close to 50-50 if each state had its own state political parties for state offices. This would give voters in states that lean strongly left or right from the national political balance much more meaningful choices. What would that look like in Utah or Wyoming or California or Massachusetts?

In theory, states have a lot more freedom to enact tax policies than the federal government does. For example, while there is reason to doubt that a federal wealth tax would be constitutional, a state wealth tax faces no obvious constitutional barrier.

Abortion Legality By Jurisdiction In 2025

A brief recap, since there has been a lot of change in the legality of abortion in the U.S. since the June 24, 2022 decision in Dobbs.


From Wikipedia.

It is also informative to place this in an international perspective.

From Wikipedia.