Abortion Rights Ballot Measures

Nebraska also passed a ballot measure limiting abortion rights. 

57% of voters favored the Florida measure, but that wasn't enough to pass a constitutional amendment.

Quote Of The Day

Democracy triumphs over long running democratic experiment.

- The Onion (November 6, 2024).

The Day After

So, Trump won the Presidential election. The exact electoral vote count isn't certain, probably 301 unless he wins Arizona, the only state whose actually vote totals were close to a toss up and which is still too close to call, in which case it is 312. He also won the popular vote by about four point five percentage points (subject to modest adjustment when the complete results are final).

Harris will win Maine. Trump will win Alaska, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada.

The outcome of the election won't be contested (except perhaps with a renewed attempt to invoke Section 3 of the 14th Amendment). It wasn't that close.

The average anti-Trump bias in the national polling estimates and in the average swing state and lean state polls was about 4 percentage points, roughly the same as in 2016 and 2020. There was also a fair amount of ticket splitting with Democrats running for Governor (e.g. in NC) or U.S. Senate (e.g. in AZ) often outperforming Harris at the top of the ticket. 

Trump did significantly better in many states than he did in 2020, despite the fact that he was a convicted felon, has other pending felony prosecutions, was found civilly liable for rape and for fraud, was four years older, showed more marked signs of dementia in his campaign, can't speak in complete sentences, has the vocabulary of a fifth grader, is a former porn star and is marrieds to a porn star in his third marriage, had no significant support from family and was denounced by many of his former inner circle, is easily triggered and baited, lost the only debate with his opponent, and employed more deplorable rhetoric and more blatant lies which were routinely pointed out publicly. No candidate has so openly pledged to defy the U.S. Constitution and U.S. law, to abandon democracy, to urge political violence and sedition, to embrace foreign dictators hostile to the U.S., to persecute his personal and political opponents, and to welcome racism, xenophobia, misogyny, and homophobia. The man is an incompetent but evil monster.

He also improved his winning margin despite the fact that the economy was remarkably strong, crime was near 55 year lows, teen pregnancy was near record lows, and we were not at war, and despite the fact that he cost at least 300,000 American lives as a result of his mishandling of the COVID pandemic. 

The Republicans also gained a majority in the Senate (the exact partisan divide is not yet certain, it could be as many as 55-56 Republican Senators). Democrats lost the only Senate race forecast to be truly close, in Ohio, by several percentage points more than the polls had forecast. It is unlikely that Republicans will preserve the filibuster under Trump's leadership.

The U.S. Supreme Court has a conservative 6-3 vote majority, three of whom are ultra-conservative.

The races for the House are very close. If every race not called yet is resolved as it is trending as I write, the Democrats will have a one seat majority in the House, but it is too close to be sure at this point. If the Republicans maintain control of the House, their majority may be cut from four seats to one to three seats.

If the Republicans manage even a single vote majority in the House, there will be essentially no checks and balances on Trump of any kind. Trump is likely to be able to prevent the internal divisions that have plagued the GOP's thin majority in the House over the last two years.

All of this is despite the fact that Trump is far and away the worst candidate for President in all of U.S. history, and shouldn't have been constitutionally permitted to run for the office at all. 

A majority of Americans are evil, stupid, or both. There is really no other explanation. Trump myriad flaws and shortcomings were screamed from the rooftops, but a majority of U.S. voters didn't care. Interviews with Trump supporters made clear that many or most of them were well aware of his shortcomings. Even while being elected President, Trump has a net nine percentage point unfavorable rating in polling (significantly worse than Harris).

There was a seventeen percentage point gender gap (men favored Trump, women favored Harris). There was twenty-nine percentage point gap between voters with college degrees and voters with no college (college educated voters favored Harris). The gap between men without college degrees and women with college degrees was forty-three percentage points. These gaps surged in Trump's three campaigns.

As usual, white Evangelical Christians strongly backed Trump for reasons that are inexplicable through logic, while non-whites and non-Christians backed Harris. Few candidates less exemplify christian virtues or even familiarity with Christian doctrines.

Basically no mainstream media outlet, other than Fox News, supported Trump.

It is a day to mourn. There is no reason to expect anything but the worst possible scenarios going forward.

As I noted before, there is real doubt over whether Trump will be able to complete his term. He is 78 years old. His dementia has advanced perceptibly during the current Presidential campaign. He is not a particularly healthy man, and is obviously quite obese. Time will tell. If he doesn't complete his term, J.D. Vance will become the acting President, and it isn't clear how he will act if he isn't in Trump's shadow.

There were other results at the state and local level, but those pale to the point of triviality compared to these results. One exception to that may be the abortion related ballot issues summarized below (the outcome of these ballot issues isn't available yet, however, in several of these states).

Much more trivially:

Not All Races Are Close

It is worth recalling that while there are some very close races this year, most aren't close at all.

Out of 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, only seven has a polling lead for on candidate or the other of two percentage points or less. The next closest race Minnesota, is one where Harris has a 5.7 percentage point lead.

There are 66 U.S. Senate seats that aren't even up for re-election this year: 28 held by Democrats and 38 held by Republicans. Ohio is the only one with a margin for the leader of less than two percentage points in the polls. In the next seven closest races, the leader has a lead of two point five to five point five percentage points. Twenty-six more Senate races aren't remotely close with the leader having a polling edge of eight point five or more percentage points.

There are 435 U.S. House races. Two have uncontested Republican candidates. But, of the other 433, only six have a leader with a two percentage point lead or less. Twenty-four more have a leader with a five point five percentage point lead or less. The other 403 contested U.S. House races have a candidate with more than a five point five percentage point lead.

So, there are just 7 close states in the Presidential race, 8 remotely close Senate races (only one of which is a true toss up), and 30 remotely close House races (only six of which are true toss ups).

The Presidential race isn't close in the District of Columbia or in 43 U.S. states. There is no U.S. Senate race for 66 seats and 26 more U.S. Senate races aren't close. There are 405 U.S. House races that are either uncontested or not close.

This is also true of a great many down ticket races.

If it weren't for the fact that the nation is quite evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, so that the close elections will actually decide the national outcomes this year, this would be a boring election.

Of course, some races that polled as not being close could end up being close, and some races that polled as being close could end up having far less close actual outcome. That's why we actually have to hold elections.

Domestic Drone Defense Should Be A Higher Priority

This decision seems unwise. Armed drones seem like a much more plausible threat in the U.S. proper than manned warplanes, naval ships, or ground troops, although long range missiles are also a problem.

The U.S. military isn’t currently interested in fielding kinetic and directed energy capabilities, such as laser and high-power microwave weapons, surface-to-air interceptors, and gun systems, for defending domestic bases and other critical infrastructure from rapidly growing and evolving drone threats. Instead, the focus is on electronic warfare and cyber warfare, and other ‘soft-kill’ options, at least for the time being.

It is useful here to step back and think about the current counter-drone ecosystem from the perspective of tiered capabilities (and associated rules of engagement) starting at the very lowest end with systems intended to increase situational awareness, typically through passive signal detection and tracking. This is where a drone is detected and tracked via its own electronic emissions. The next step up is active sensors, generally radars, that can track the drone regardless of it emitting radio frequency energy or not. Both passive and active systems are often paired with electro-optical and infrared cameras to help with positively identifying targets. . .

Moving further up the capability ladder, there are non-kinetic ‘soft kill’ defense options like electronic warfare, followed by directed energy weapons like lasers and high-power microwaves, and finally more traditional kinetic effectors like drone-hunting drones, anti-aircraft guns, and surface-to-air missiles. There are some outlier systems like drones that might fire things like nets, streamers or goo, or use electronic pulses to disable a drone, which fall somewhere near the same category directed energy.

“There are kinetic options…. They’re just not here,” NORTHCOM’s Mayes said. “Many of them [existing counter-drone systems] do have the ability to integrate with a kinetic type [of capability]. …. But again, it’s not something we were super interested in that regard.”

He highlighted the 20mm Vulcan cannon-armed Centurion C-RAM (Counter-Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar) and the Coyote counter-drone interceptor as being among such capabilities in U.S. military service now.

From Warzone.

Plan A & Plan B

The best predictions of the election outcomes in the U.S. show a coin flip for the results in the Presidential race and control of the U.S. House, with the marginal states and congressional districts respectively at fraction of percent margins.

Republicans will almost surely narrowly control the U.S. Senate, with 51-52 GOP seats.

Plan A-1

If Harris wins the Presidency and Democrats win the House, we have a very different future. This would be not all that different from the present, which isn't all that bad. A strong economy, record low crime, and the U.S. not actually fighting any major wars. Trump will be headed to prison or at least house arrest, and more criminal prosecutions will await him. The January 6 criminals will not be pardoned. 

Harris won't be able to pass major legislation righting the political balance with a Republican Senate in the first two years, but will probably be able to get a couple of Republicans in the Senate to back necessary appointments and budget legislation, at least. Mitch McConnell, the currently minority leader in the Senate and soon to be the majority leader in the Senate has pretty much indicated he'd prefer a Harris Presidency to a Trump Presidency, so he'd probably cooperate enough with Harris to keep the government functioning.

Looming would be the issue of how do deprogram the deluded 48% who backed Trump after the lies that they have swallowed, and how to address their fear of the Democratic policies that are aimed at helping them. Each election also weakens their demographic base.

Plan A-2

A Harris wins with Republicans controlling both houses of Congress is possible. This would be worse, but the veto power would afford us some protection from Republican excess. Biden has managed to deal with a small Republican majority in the House so far, and due to unreliable Senators elected from his own party who subsequently left the Democratic Party, has limited power in the Senate anyway.

The Republican MAGA movement would also eventually have Trump facing the consequences of his criminal acts and too old and losing cognitive capacity too fast to run again in 2028 at the age of 82, that could deflate the movement and demographic change eats away at it.

Plan B-1

If Trump wins the Presidency and Republicans win the House, we have one future, where Trump is essentially unchecked by Congress or the Courts. This could be grim indeed. It might very well mark the end of our nation's nearly 250 year old run as a democracy, and replace it with fascism.

In that case, the biggest question is how much damage will be done before 78 year old Trump (who isn't particularly healthy) dies or has his already apparent dementia advance to the point that J.D. Vance replaces him. If so, what happens next? Can democracy be restored? J.D. Vance seemed like an O.K. guy before he blatantly did a MAGA turnabout for political gain and it is unclear what he would be like outside of Trump's shadow but still needing the MAGA base for political support. 

State governments and their prerogatives would limit a total immediate shift. There is also the related question of how the state law criminal cases against Trump would proceed.

Liberal and moderate federal judges could delay the process. Trump has threatened to purge the civil service, but that can't be done overnight. Serious legislation would require abolishing the filibuster, which would probably be done, but might again delay the process.

Is it better to fight, or is flight the right option?

Plan B-2 

A Trump Presidential win with a narrow Democratic majority in the House is possible. This outcome is better than a Republican trifecta, but still pretty bad. One can do lots of mischief with the Presidency even without new legislation, if the ultra-conservative Supreme Court backs you up and the Senators from your party let you appoint whomever you want to executive post spots and to the courts. 

It will be one constitutional crisis after another, but perhaps it would not be quite as impossible to overcome.