10 August 2022

Nuclear Power Related Deaths Analyzed

Nuclear power related deaths are a matter of renewed interest because a new nuclear reactor design for a modular mini-reactor was recently approved in the U.S. for the first time that a new nuclear reactor design has been approved in decades.

Like renewables, nuclear power is much better for public safety and the environment than fossil fuels. Among them, costs and operational considerations (nuclear power is desirable because it provides reliable baseline electrical power), and not safety, should be the main consideration. 

Disposing of high level nuclear waste is far more of a political issue and far less of a technical issue than it is perceived to be. Nuclear fuel reprocessing is also an important way to mitigate this concern that is grossly underused in the United States.

Nuclear power is more expensive than natural gas, which has far fewer safety and environmental externalities than coal or oil or biofuels do. But, considering the environmental and safety externalities of natural gas, nuclear power should still be considered a competitive alternative to natural gas (and, in Europe, reliance on Russian natural gas supplies poses national security issues).

Oil has been largely phased out of electricity generation outside Hawaii and Alaska, both of which are prime candidates for conversion to new electrical power sources. Coal is by far the worst way to generate electrical power and is indeed being phased out in the developed world.

The other main way to wean the world of fossil fuels in addition to converting power plants from coal to other fuels in most places and from oil to other fuels in Alaska and Hawaii, is to convert to electric vehicles, especially as the electrical power grid becomes greener. This process is now well underway. 


Nuclear Power Related Deaths

There have been 20 deaths outside the Soviet Union from nuclear power incidents since 1958 (and not more than about 267 for all time outside the Soviet Union).

All of the other nuclear power related deaths are from very early in the industry (two in 1957, one of which was Soviet), and from poor Soviet nuclear power safety standards. There have been about 4,310 nuclear power related deaths from incidents in the Soviet Union (predominantly long term exposure deaths from the 1986 Chernobyl disaster).

There have only been three nuclear power incidents with death counts from a single incident of more than ten: 

(1) The Chernobyl disaster in 1986 in Ukraine during the Soviet era, resulting in about 78 direct deaths and a WHO estimated 4,000 long term exposure related deaths. This was 36 years ago. Fossil fuels kill more people in Europe from pollution every year.

2) The Kyshtym disaster in the Soviet Union causing 50-9000 excess deaths over 32 years, with the most credible estimate of about 200 in 1957. This was sixty-five years ago and just three years after the first commercial nuclear power plant started operations in the Soviet Union. 

(3) The Windscale fire in 1957 in the UK killed 100-240 people. this was one year after the first commercial nuclear power plant started operations in the U.K. 

All other nuclear power incidents for all time have killed about 60 people (33 of which were Soviet, mostly military nuclear submarine related and 27 elsewhere). 

Keep in mind that the nuclear power industry is very young compared to most of the alternatives:
The first time that heat from a nuclear reactor was used to generate electricity was on December 20, 1951 at the Experimental Breeder Reactor I, feeding four light bulbs.

On June 27, 1954, the world's first nuclear power station to generate electricity for a power grid, the Obninsk Nuclear Power Plant, commenced operations in Obninsk, in the Soviet Union. The world's first full scale power station, Calder Hall in the United Kingdom, opened on October 17, 1956. The world's first full scale power station solely devoted to electricity production—Calder Hall was also meant to produce plutonium — the Shippingport Atomic Power Station in Pennsylvania, United States—was connected to the grid on December 18, 1957.
In the first two disasters (Chernobyl and Kyshtym), the number of deaths is hotly disputed. This mostly due to disputes in how to statistically estimate excess deaths from radiation released in these incidents, mostly from cancer, many decades later (rather like difficulties in estimating deaths from fossil fuel air pollution only several orders of magnitude or more lower).

The non-human plants and animals of greater Chernobyl, have thrived because they are free of humans and that was more harmful to them than the fallout from the disaster in 1986.

In addition, about 62 people have died for all time from excess medical cancer radiation therapy exposures which has saved many thousands if not millions of lives.

Those statistics come from here.

Other Deaths

Deaths in the solar power industry appear to come mostly from construction industry style accidents, similar to those for roofers, and possibly also from the mining and disposal of potentially toxic materials used to make solar panels.

Nuclear compares favorably to renewables in safety, in part, because it generates so much power with so little fuel and so few materials.

There are fossil fuel deaths from air pollution, extraction industry related injuries, injuries related to transporting fossil fuels, toxins and radioactive waste from coal and from oil and gas operations and oil spills, and explosions now and then (e.g. from gas leaks and oil spills).

No comments: