04 November 2022

2020 Census Redistricting Redux

CNN recaps the impact of the redistricting efforts based upon the 2020 Census, which resulted in a shift of one more safe Congressional district towards Republicans and reduced the number of competitive seats by about 1/3rd to about 8% of the total (ten of seventeen competitive seats removed are attributable to Texas, which went from having eleven competitive seats to just one in the latest round of redistricting).

Without gerrymandering, there probably would have been a modest Democratic party net gain, and there would probably have been more competitive seats. But, redistricting did have less of an impact than anticipated.


How The Districts Were Drawn And State Level Partisan Control

Meanwhile, the way that the maps were drawn has changed a great deal in the last twenty years and the notion of a bipartisan map has pretty much ceased to exist. A bipartisan agreement was reached in a single state to split the state into two Congressional districts in a state where one party controlled both houses of the legislature. 

The demise of bipartisan redistricting maps is partially because the task has been handed over to independent commissions in many competitive states, and partially, because there are only two U.S. states with a partisan split between two state legislative houses (Minnesota and Virginia).

In all of the five states with exactly two Congressional districts (Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Idaho, and Hawaii) one party controls both houses of the state legislature and the Governorship. Only one of them (Maine) is likely to have a partisan split between its Congressional districts following the midterm elections. I'm not sure which of these five states had a bipartisan redistricting map. 

Seven states don't have to redistrict because they have only one seat in Congress (Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming).


States in yellow had divided state legislatures in 2022, those in blue were controlled by Democrats, those in red were controlled by Republicans. Nebraska has a non-partisan unicameral legislature that is de facto controlled by Republicans. Only Minnesota and Virginia have a legislature not controlled by one major political party. This chart and the next one are from here.

Far more states have a partisan split between a Governor with veto power and at least one house of a state legislature.
States are marked as blue if both houses of the state legislature are controlled by Democrats and the state has a Democratic party governor, as red if both houses of the state legislature are controlled by Republicans and the state has a Republican party governor, gray in the case of Nebraska with a unicameral non-partisan legislature (de facto controlled by Republicans with a Republican Governor) and yellow when the two houses of the state legislator and the Governor's office are not controlled by the same party. 

There are no U.S. states where someone not affiliated with one the two major parties controls a state legislature or a Governorship, even though in Nebraska the state legislators run on non-partisan ballots.

In 38 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, there is one political party that controls the legislative branch and the Governorship (although in the District of Columbia, the title is Mayor). Fourteen states are controlled by Democrats. The District of Columbia is also under one party control (but has no voting representation in the U.S. House or the U.S. Senate). One state (Nebraska) is de facto controlled by Republicans. Twenty-three states are de jure controlled by Republicans.

Twelve states have divided control. 

Seven states: Kansas, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, have Democratic Governors and a Republican controlled state legislature. 

Three states: Maryland, Vermont, and Massachusetts have Republican Governors and a Democratic controlled state legislature. 

In two states, the Governorship and the lower house of the state legislature are controlled by one party, and the state senate is controlled by the other party.

In Virginia, the Governor is a Republican and the Republican controls the lower house of the state legislature, while the upper house of the state legislature is controlled by the Democrats. 

In Minnesota, the Governor is a member of the Democrat-Farm-Labor (DFL) party, which also controls the lower house of the state legislature, while the upper house of the state legislature is controlled by the Republicans.

Finally, for reference purposes, the final 2020 Presidential election results by state:



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