What Would Happen If China Tried To Invade Taiwan?

A series of war game analyses from a think tank known as the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), concludes that Taiwan with help from the U.S. and Japan would successfully repel a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in a conventional war, but at high costs to all involved.

“The United States and Japan lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of service members. Such losses would damage the US global position for many years,” the report said. In most scenarios, the US Navy lost two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large surface combatants. Approximately 3,200 US troops would be killed in three weeks of combat, nearly half of what the US lost in two decades of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“China also suffers heavily. Its navy is in shambles, the core of its amphibious forces is broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers are prisoners of war,” it said. The report estimated China would suffer about 10,000 troops killed and lose 155 combat aircraft and 138 major ships.

“While Taiwan’s military is unbroken, it is severely degraded and left to defend a damaged economy on an island without electricity and basic services,” the report. The island’s army would suffer about 3,500 casualties, and all 26 destroyers and frigates in its navy will be sunk, the report said.

Japan is likely to lose more than 100 combat aircraft and 26 warships while US military bases on its home territory come under Chinese attack, the report found.

Via CNN. 

This narrow military analysis, however, doesn't begin to address how the diplomatic, political, and economic dimensions of such a conflict would influence its outcome. (This link also states that: "In the CSIS game, the U.S. lost 200 aircraft, 20 warships, and two aircraft carriers.").

The total toll predicted is about 200 major warships, about 500 aircraft, close to 20,000 people dead, and tens of thousands of Chinese POWs in Taiwan.

Excluding submarines, China has 86 warships in the aircraft carrier/cruiser/destroyer/frigate class. The United States has 124 and would lose 22. Japan has 49 and would lose more than half of them. Taiwan has 26 and would lose them all.

Basically, almost every warship involved in the conflict would be sunk in the course of a three week long war.