20 January 2021

The Electoral College Edge Changes Over Time And Isn't Set In Stone

The partisan edge due to the Electoral College was worse in 2020 than at any time since 1948, 1936, 1920, 1876 and 1872 (the flip from 1872 to 1876 was particularly stunning). But the fact that it has changed over time provides a little hope. Much of the change is due to shifting partisan coalitions. It is also worth observing that the partisan edge only matters when the parties are roughly equally balanced, which is a state they are naturally attracted to according to political theory, but isn't a stable equilibrium.

It is also notable that in 2008 and 2012, Colorado was a tipping point state, while now it is a safe blue state.

The chart is from 538.

YEARNATIONAL POPULAR VOTETIPPING-POINT
STATE(S)
TIPPING-POINT MARGINELECTORAL COLLEGE EDGE
2020D+4.5WI (D), PA (R)D+0.9R+3.5
2016D+2.1WI*R+0.8R+2.9
2012D+3.9COD+5.4D+1.5
2008D+7.3CO (D), IA (R)D+9.2D+2.0
2004R+2.5OHR+2.1D+0.4
2000D+0.5FLR+0.0R+0.5
1996D+8.5PAD+9.2D+0.7
1992D+5.6TND+4.7R+0.9
1988R+7.7MIR+7.9R+0.2
1984R+18.2MIR+19.0R+0.8
1980R+9.7ILR+7.9D+1.8
1976D+2.1WID+1.7R+0.4
1972R+23.1OH (R), ME (D)R+22.3D+0.9
1968R+0.7OH (R), IL (D)R+2.6R+1.9
1964D+22.6WAD+24.6D+2.0
1960D+0.2MO (D), NJ (R)D+0.7D+0.5
1956R+15.4FLR+14.5D+0.9
1952R+10.9MIR+11.5R+0.6
1948D+4.5CA (D), IL (R)D+0.6R+3.8
1944D+7.5NYD+5.0R+2.5
1940D+9.9PAD+6.9R+3.1
1936D+24.3OHD+20.6R+3.7
1932D+17.8IAD+17.7R+0.1
1928R+17.4ILR+14.7D+2.8
1924R+25.2NYR+26.6R+1.4
1920R+26.2RIR+31.2R+5.0
1916D+3.1CAD+0.4R+2.8
1912D+18.7IA (D), NJ (R)D+17.0R+1.7
1908R+8.5WVR+10.2R+1.7
1904R+18.8NJR+18.6D+0.2
1900R+6.2ILR+8.4R+2.2
1896R+4.3OHR+4.8R+0.5
1892D+3.0IL (D), CT (R)D+3.2D+0.2
1888D+0.8NYR+1.1R+1.9
1884D+0.6NYD+0.1R+0.5
1880R+0.1NYR+1.9R+1.8
1876D+3.0SCR+0.5R+3.5
1872R+11.8OHR+7.1D+4.7
1868R+5.3NC (R), AR (D)R+7.1R+1.8

The Politics of Scientists

Most of this post (except my contributions in italics, is all from a single answer in a Quora thread which resembles the kind of answer I often write at Politics.Stackexchange, but it is so good, and most of it is straight borrowed from other sources like Pew, so I don't feel too bad about stealing; I did upvote the author of the answer and in defense of fair use am providing some significant academic and political commentary of my own). The question, which is also riffing off a Pew article, is: 

In US why do only 6% of scientists identify as conservative?

For what it is worth, I know and correspond with several professional scientists who are conservative (Razib Khan, Lubos Motl, and Greg Cochran come immediately to mind, and have represented a conservative gay academic librarian whose work is intimately related to the real world scientific process, and I have some fairly conservative (for Oberlin College) friends who were STEM students at the same time that I was a math major who took lots of physics classes, although not quiet enough for a double major or a fourth minor). 

In academic campus life, scientists tend be less political and less liberal than their peers in the humanities and social scientists, but more liberal than their peers in the business school and the engineering school, with lawyers typically having a bimodal distribution born out by campaign finance data. Most scientific disciplines are viewed as being intrinsically apolitical, but apolitical and culture free aren't the same thing, as a recent post at 4 Gravitons (by a scientist who is mostly quite politically moderate but probably leans slightly left).

The most recent data I have on this precise question of the ideological identification of scientists is from 2009, unfortunately.

For me, the starting point is this:



Scientists are much less likely to believe in God. All else being equal, this will make them more likely to be Democrats.

Party affiliation and partisanship tend to be mutually reinforcing in an age of ideological polarization. If you find a Republican who is for gun control, chances are that they will start moving closer and closer to their party’s ideological consensus over time. Scientists, for instance, overwhelmingly accept evolution and global warming, which are still a matter of debate for the American public.

I particular like this development of a causation hypothesis, indeed a quite plausible one, which most people who study political identity aren't willing to even attempt. And, from personal experience I am inclined to say that causation runs mostly from a scientific worldview to a less religious or at least less fundamentalist religious identity, rather than the other way around. This direction of causation is one reason that the long term trend is towards more secular societies in the developed world, although it is more complex than that.

It is a more nuanced hypothesis than the more common but crude view that political views favored by some high IQ occupation should be considered more valid because high IQ people are more likely to have correct understandings of things, which is true to a point, but underestimates the influences of socio-economic conditions, race, and personal self-interest, in my humble opinion (something that I addressed a bit in a Politics.SE post about the downsides of meritocracy is a system of social and political organization.)


Since skepticism of these concepts is more likely to be a feature of conservatism, people like evangelical protestants who tend to reject them are a going to be viewed as an out-group by most scientists.

Even if you disagree that this process occurs, people who are scientists in the US tend to have left-of-center positions on all manner of political questions:


Scientists are less likely to be skeptical of government, more likely to be skeptical of business, more likely to support the welfare state, more likely to support the adoption of further measures for social justice, and less likely to be pro-military.

I would note that essentially all scientists have college educations and by definition they are professionals, mostly working on salaries, and that most scientists who identify as such work for governments or nonprofits on a salaried basis, even though some do work in the for profit sector where professionals with a similar skill set who identify primarily as inventors or engineers, even if they end up doing some science, are more common. This occupational setting could influence their views as well.

Now, there are some instances where scientists are more likely to be in agreement with conservatives, but not enough of those to alter the overall liberal balance:


I don’t have any data on opposition to animal research, but I would guess that to be a liberal position. The left also tends to be more opposed to nuclear power, which scientists overwhelmingly support.


As for vaccines, opposition to vaccine mandates tends to be higher in conservatives, in spite of of the popular perception to the contrary. I surmise that this is more due to libertarian ideology than to a rejection of the science.

Interesting nuances, I wonder how much the form of the question influences the partisan breakdown, however.


Still, overall, in the American political context, scientists espouse liberal positions. And this is reflected in how scientists self-identify:


Notably, the premise of the question (only 6% of scientists identify as conservatives) differs from the 9% figure in the data in this 2009 study, although given the likely margin of error in the survey data and the shift of attitudes over the last 11 years, which college educated professionals tending to the left, the 6% figure may be accurate now.

Respect

Biden inauguration speech was one of the most impressive political speeches that I've seen in a long time.

Biden is canny to a degree that exceeded my expectations. He is walking a narrow tightrope with the thinnest possible majority he could have in the Senate, with a very thin majority in the House, with key federal courts up to the U.S. Supreme Court stacked against him. Unity is his only option and he is seizing it.

He has very carefully calculated who he needs to win over and who he can throw under the bus, and very carefully tailored his rhetoric and the overall symbolism of his inauguration event to woo them. He has thrown under the bus the Capitol rioters, the conspiracy theorists, the people who don't live in reality, the white supremacists, the militias, the haters, and the cynical nihilists.

He has made a powerful and sincere appeal to decency and humanity, to cooperation and fairness, to civility and the democratic process.

He has aggressively made a claim to be a "real Christian" who can talk about God because he is devout. I am not the target audience. He has me. He has my Jewish and Hindu and Wiccan friends.

Instead, he is telling the black and Hispanic Christians in the Democratic party that he is not another white liberal taking them for granted. He is telling the white Catholics and mainline Christians and open minded Evangelicals, as few as they may be, that he gets the part of their faith that makes them feel decent and good about themselves. He is trying to piece together a "center" coalition along the lines of a Christian Democratic party of Europe. It is no accident that he's speech was followed by a vocal performance by Garth Brooks, a Red state icon, and then by a black pastor who is a master of oratory.

He has made cultural and stylistic appeals to the struggling working class and members of the military.

He didn't leave the white liberals in the party with nothing. We care about racial justice too. We care about overcoming COVID. We care about truth and civility in politics. We care about climate change. He's picked some key focal points that you can count on the fingers of one hand and hit them again, and then again, and then again. We know that his appeal to faith won't mean that he'll put non-Christians in peril. He's appointed a transwoman to a senior post in the Department of Health and Human Services. He is absolutely a moderate but we know that his moderation is liberal enough to exploit what is within the realm of the possible. We know that there are a stack of executive orders waiting for him to sign in the Oval Office that will allow us to breath a sigh of relief again. And, we know that he has to play the game to build the supermajority coalitions it will take to respond the the challenges.

It is incredibly refreshing to hear his moderation peppered with a genuine sense of urgency about multiple big issues that we agree need urgent attention. It is incredibly refreshing to have a President do something so anodyne as denouncing misinformation, political violence and racism. His efforts to say the usual right things about hope and respect and being a good example for and engaged with the world, and being a President for the people who didn't vote for him and unity and decency, after four years of our long national nightmare in which Trump and his followers banished them from the public discourse.

Most importantly, his targets are the ten comparatively Republican Senators whose cooperation he's going to need to overcome filibusters or the two or three he'll need to switch parties to abolish the filibuster. He's holding out an olive branch to Mitch McConnell who has done the same by publicly condemning Trump, because he knows he will have to work with him for the next four years and that Mitch McConnell, as the highest profile Republican elected official in the District of Columbia, can provide cover for and deliver the Republican Senators that he needs to get legislation passed if everyone plays ball.

He's showing the secret signals to tell the two-thirds of the judges on the U.S. Supreme Court that he shares their faith and some of their values and that they should give him a chance. 

He's appealing to military officers to show them that he's someone they can respect and feel proud to serve instead of undermining.

Biden is a very smart man, but who used plain words and repeated himself to make sure that even people who weren't that bright could understand him. He didn't appeal to the rock bottom of stupid like Trump did, but he also only slightly hinted at his own sophistication, in a allusion to Saint Augustine (whose place he explained to the uninitiated) concealing his class and education far more than Barack Obama or George H.W. Bush, or Richard Nixon ever did. He was speaking with the same level of sophistication as Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton, but without the showmanship.

Joe Biden is no Kennedy. But he has largely succeeded in establishing a persona of a decent, wise, civil grown up from an earlier era faced with immense challenges that can be overcome with teamwork and unity. If he can continue to craft that kind of carefully curated message and image, and can turn that into results, he might end up being more a great leader, and less of a placeholder and caretaker, than his campaign and previous political career had led me, or anyone to expect from him.

18 January 2021

Chinese Is Not One Language, Even In Writing

This phenomenon — the opacity of Sinographically written expressions across topolects — puts the lie to the widespread assertion that "Chinese 'dialects' are all the same when written down in characters". From numerous Language Log posts, we already know for sure this is not true for Cantonese, Taiwanese, and other Sinitic tongues. The current post demonstrates that it is also not true for Shanghainese.

From here. 

17 January 2021

Streaming Video Is Good, Indeed It Is Too Good

There is a gushing river of high quality video content available for streaming; more than fourteen year old me could have hoped for in my wildest dreams. 

But it turns out that lots of the time, after a long day at work, or a weekend full of errands, you aren't actually in a sufficiently tuned in and alert state to appreciate high quality drama in a way that does it justice. Often, you are only capable of fully appreciating B-grade fare that doesn't demand your full attention. And, that fare, that is entertaining but not excellent, is no more abundant than it was in the 1980s. Indeed, it might even be a bit more scarce.

On the other hand, there is also a seemingly unlimited supply of really dreadful D-grade fare unmatched in the days when you had to watch TV when TV Guide told you it was available, or on VCR videos chosen with half an hour of family video renting committee deliberation at Blockbuster. The "long tail" is real, and a lot of it is bad.

13 January 2021

Naval Surface Ships Are Still Sitting Ducks

For a variety of reasons (none of which have much to do with the intrinsic combat capabilities of our naval fleet), the U.S. Navy has not had anyone actually try to sink any of its surface ships in decades. 

When, and not if, a near peer ever does, it will be a tragedy of epic proportions. 

Why?

Surface combatants are basically sitting ducks. They are big. They are slow. There are great limits on the extent to which they can be stealthy on the flat ocean or sea with no cover, visible to satellites, drones, radar, and having audible signatures as well. The contest between the defensive virtues of armor and the offensive power of missiles and torpedoes was won by the offensive side many decades ago.

Going to war in a blue sea ship is essentially like heading into a battle zone on land in an RV, with all of the living base facilities for the crew as well as the armaments brought into the battlefield at sea.

There are multiple threats to which even the biggest ships, like aircraft carriers, are intensely vulnerable. 

One of them is submarines. Even cheap, small, air independent propulsion submarines can easily sink an aircraft carrier and any other U.S. surface ship before it even knows it is under attack.

Fortunately, only a few of the main adversaries of the U.S. (Russia, China, Iran and North Korea) have significant naval forces. Russia's fleet is hollow due to lack of sufficient funds to maintain a Navy built for a nation with twice as many people and twice as much money, and is divided between many theaters. North Korea's military is even worse in terms of readiness and technological sophistication. China, Iran and North Korea are all primarily equipped to deploy only in the vicinity of their own coasts, although China's blue sea navy capabilities are surging.

Fortunately, none of these allies has seen fit to enter into a major, near peer class naval conflict with the United States. 

In the recent U.S. military engagements in Afghanistan, Bosnia and Iraq, for example, local adversaries had no meaningful naval forces to speak of, for obvious reasons of geography (and also for less obvious reasons of insufficient funds to marshal one even if they had someplace to deploy it).

But the amount of expenditure it would take to devastate the U.S. Navy's surface fleet with submarines, advanced missiles, aircraft, and drones in the air, on the surface and underwater, and to thwart it with mines, is a tiny fraction of what it costs the U.S. to purchase and operate these forces.

Sooner or later, the U.S. will face an enemy who recognizes these facts and decides to give us a bloody nose by exposing the immense vulnerability of the U.S. surface fleet. And, when we do, it will be an exceedingly ugly moment that will be forever remembered in military history that is worse than Pearl Harbor. 

Trump Impeached A Second Time

President Trump has been impeached for a second time for his role in urging supporters to disregard the Presidential election results that resulted in them storming the Capitol building on January 6, 2021 while the electoral votes were being formally counted.

If Trump is convicted by a two-thirds majority in the U.S. Senate, with Chief Justice John Roberts presiding, following this impeachment he can be barred from seeking future public office and may lose some post-Presidential perks, in addition to losing a few days of his Presidency before his term expires on January 20, 2021, less than a week from today, when President-elect Joe Biden takes office.

The Senate did not convict him the first time arising out of efforts to induce Ukrainian officials to falsely implicate Joe Biden's son for corruption allegations. Trump is the only President to have been impeached twice and the vote for more bipartisan than any previous Presidential impeachment vote in the House.

The final vote in the House on impeachment held this afternoon was 232-197 with all 222 Democrats in the House affirmatively voting yes, and 10 Republicans in the House voting to impeach. All 197 voting against impeachment were Republicans. 

Four Republicans did not vote. 

There are two vacancies in the House at this time. One is in a seat won by a Republican this year (Luke Letlow in LA-5) due to the newly elected representative's death, which will be filled in a March 20, 2021 special elections, possibly followed by a runoff election on April 24, 2021 if no candidate receives a majority in the first round. A Democrat elected in LA-2 has announced he will leave to join the Biden administration and a special election for that seat has been announced at the same time, but that seat isn't vacant yet. Instead, the House Clerk announced on Jan. 5, 2021, that there was a vacancy in New York's 22nd Congressional District. This is until the race between former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) and first-term Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) can be settled through the courts. The latest vote count is that Tenney, who held the office until the 2018 election, is up by 29 votes. No election certificate has been received yet for this New York race. The outcome of this House contest may be settled by Feb. 1 or even earlier.

The Republicans voting in favor of impeachment were:
 
Liz Cheney (WY)
Anthony Gonzalez (OH-16)
Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA-3)
John Katko (NY-24)
Adam Kinzinger (IL-16)
Peter Meijer (MI-3)
Dan Newhouse (WA-4)
Tom Rice (SC-7)
Fred Upton (MI-6)
David Valadao (CA-21)

The Republicans not voting (even though they could have voted even by proxy if they wishes to do so) were:

Kay Granger (TX-12)
Andy Harris (MD-1)
Greg Murphy (NC-3)
Daniel Webster (FL-10)

News reports state that these four Representatives do not believe that Trump should remain in office, but feel that the impeachment process will divide the country, or otherwise objected to the process. According to CNN:
Trump will stay in office and likely finish out his term because it takes a Senate conviction to remove him, even after he’s been impeached.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is signaling he's in favor of impeachment, a GOP source says, but he's made it clear that the Senate trial won’t start until President-elect Joe Biden is sworn in.

This would leave open the possibility that Trump could claim that a vote to convict him on the impeachment was invalid because his term of office expired rendering the proceeding moot, although there is apparently one historical precedent of someone who is impeached while in office whose term expires before the conviction proceeding in the Senate is completed being convicted on the impeachment.

Once President Biden is sworn in on January 20, 2021, Mitch McConnell will become the Minority leader in the U.S. Senate, since Vice President Harris, a Democrat, will hold the tie breaking vote, rather than Vice President Pence, who holds that vote now. So until then he has the power to delay an impeachment trial in the Senate. The Senate is currently evenly split with 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans. 

Vice President Pence has declined in writing in response to a request from the House of Representatives in a resolution to remove Trump under the 25th Amendment, for Presidential disability, and Trump has not indicated a willingness to resign from office before the end of his term, so far.

When Do Civil Wars Happen?

This is an excerpt from a October 29, 2020 op-ed piece from the Washington Post. It has not been updated to reflect to events of the November 2020 election and its aftermath.

It lacks the creativity to see the way that an autogolpe a.k.a. self-coup like the one that President Trump and his allies attempted could be possible, it understates the singular importance of the issue of legitimacy relative to all other possible issues, it does not give adequate consideration to the role that a federal state can play in facilitating a geographically based schism, and it understates the importance of the distinction between schism rooted in symbolic and substantive disagreements found in the management literature.

But it still provides valuable insight into the empirical evidence regarding the circumstances under which civil wars arise.
Historically, the academic literature on the causes of civil war was divided into two categories: Some scholars viewed such conflicts as a predictable outcome whenever there were deep grievances within national populations, while others stressed the importance of citizens having an opportunity to act on those resentments. Much of the discussion about violence in the United States today centers, implicitly, on the grievance model, holding that if we know how much different tribes of Americans hate each other, we can predict the likelihood of fighting in the streets.

But scholars now prefer the opportunity model, thanks to large-scale studies that examine political violence worldwide with cutting-edge statistical methods. Grievances and societal cleavages exist everywhere, waiting to be exploited. What distinguishes the countries that descend into civil war from those that do not is the lack of state capacity to put down rebellion — for reasons rooted in politics, economics or geography.

You might expect, for instance, states that lack democracy, that have diverse populations or that discriminate against minorities would be at the highest risk of internal conflict, because such conditions foment bitter grievances. But in fact, those qualities are at most loosely correlated with civil war, as scholars like the Stanford University political scientists James Fearon and David Laitin and the University of California at San Diego’s Barbara F. Walter have shown.

Rather, civil wars happen where the state is weak. Lower levels of wealth predict civil war, because poor countries lack the law enforcement and military capability to put down armed rebellions. That helps to explain recent conflicts in such varied countries as Yemen and Congo. Power vacuums, as occurred during and after decolonization, after American regime-change wars and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, create uncertainty about who is in charge and can inspire those who seek power to take up arms. There are other factors, too: States that are rich in oil see more civil war because the potential payoffs of a successful rebellion are higher — but this applies only up to a certain level of income, after which point the government is often able to buy off or destroy any potential challengers.

The Balkans offer a ready example of how grievance based on ethnic tension must be intertwined with the collapse of order for groups to take up arms against one another. While various ethnolinguistic communities there long eyed each other with suspicion, going back to the days of the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian empires, those tensions did not lead to violence for most of the region’s history, including during the nearly half-century of communist rule. But when the Soviet empire fell and communist governments were discredited, parts of Yugoslavia began to declare independence. Serbs, Bosnians, Croats and Albanians, incited by political opportunists and demagogues, fought wars against one another for a decade, drawing in the international community, until sovereign states emerged with new, widely accepted borders.

In one influential 2006 study representative of the new school of thought — one that examined 172 countries from 1945 to 2000 — the political scientists Havard Hegre, of the Center for the Study of Civil War, and Nicholas Sambanis, of Yale University, used advanced statistical tools to determine which of 88 factors most consistently predicted civil war. Grievance-based measures like authoritarian government and ethnolinguistic diversity ranked low or had no discernible effect (although the latter did predict internal conflict when the analysis included the lowest level of conflict measured, defined as 25 or more deaths in a year). In contrast, Hegre and Sambanis found that measures of opportunity like a small military establishment and rough terrain — which offers a base from which rebels can strike — had a much stronger and more consistent effect.

Geography is a surprisingly potent variable in predicting civil war — and can confound even moderately strong states. During such conflicts, governments usually control the cities, and rebels form bases in relatively inaccessible regions like mountains, forests and swamps. Countries that have had problems with mountain-based minorities include Russia, which has confronted rebels in Chechnya, and Turkey, which is still fighting Kurds in the southeast of the country. (Until the 1990s, the Turkish government even referred to Kurds as “Mountain Turks,” denying their identity while acknowledging the geographical nature of the problem.) 

Even with the most difficult geographic conditions, however, wealth and government power tend to erase opportunities for rebellion. Consider that in 1948 and 1949, South Korea faced a communist-led uprising on Jeju Island — which lies in the Korea Strait, about 60 miles from the mainland — in a conflict that cost as many as 30,000 lives, mostly civilian. A poor, newly independent South Korea had difficulty bringing that island under control and relied on brutal tactics to do so, including summary executions. But now that South Korea has joined the club of modern, industrialized states with advanced militaries, the idea of a region like Jeju rebelling has become unthinkable.

Wealth and military power explain why, in the United States, civil war is likely to remain a metaphor. Its per capita gross domestic product is about $62,000 a year, among the highest in the world, and its military is clearly capable of wiping out any challenges to state power. (The U.S. Civil War occurred when the nation had a per capita GDP comparable to that of a developing nation today, and when military technology was limited to rifles and cannon.) The Pentagon has 1.3 million active-duty personnel, can find terrorists on the other side of the world and wipe them out with the push of a button, and boasts a command-and-control structure with no recent history of factionalization. There is no swamp or mountain peak that is beyond the easy reach of the U.S. military.

A recent survey by Nationscape revealed that 36 percent of Republicans and 33 percent of Democrats thought that violence was at least somewhat justified to accomplish political goals. The opportunity model suggests that while a survey result like this reveals disturbing things about our political culture, it does not presage civil war.

To be sure, riots and general discord can happen as long as leaders lack the political will to respond (or if, as today, leaders disagree about the line dividing peaceful protest from lawlessness). But as soon as the authorities perceive a serious enough problem, they can move quickly and decisively, a lesson learned by the anarchists who recently took over part of Seattle, declaring it the Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone. They were tolerated for just over three weeks until they were cleared out by local police in partnership with the FBI. Law enforcement at the local and national levels, from police to the military, remains united and under civilian control, willing and able to put down potential threats to our governing system or territorial integrity.

The wide availability of guns does make the American situation unique among developed countries — and leads to more horrific low-level violence, such as the 2019 El Paso shooting, in which a White racist angry about immigration is accused of targeting innocent Hispanics, killing 23 people. (He had apparently sought, but failed, to provoke a larger conflict.) But that is not civil war — and using such hyperbolic language may actually lead to more violence, as radicals come to believe that true civil war is possible and undertake copycat attacks.

In fact, the situation in Michigan suggests how intoxicating the idea of civil war can be. Had the recently arrested anti-government extremists not been under close federal surveillance — itself a reassuring sign of state capacity — they might have committed hideous political violence. Yet their goal of inciting civil war would have remained out of reach. 

Those predicting civil war have correctly identified serious problems in American society: Ever-widening divisions based on factors including race, geography and partisanship make it difficult to respond to such varied threats as pandemics, economic crises and climate change.

But our problem remains bitter polarization and distrust, not the literal disintegration of the country. The United States faces monumental challenges in the coming months and years, from a rancorous election (and its aftershocks) to difficult racial issues to continuing environmental calamity. Extreme partisanship and political discord will absolutely make everything harder. But the sooner we realize that civil war is highly unlikely, the sooner we can focus on real problems.

Notably, countries with smaller military forces (in absolute terms) are more prone to coups and civil wars than countries with smaller ones. This is not just because a larger military can put down an insurgency. It is also because in a large military force like the U.S., it is too hard for a coup leader to covertly assemble enough senior military leaders to control the military as a whole, while it is much easier for the legitimate government to coordinate all senior military leaders to back it as they are obligated by law to do.

Education In The U.S. By Age And Race

 




Population Change, Poverty, Median Household Income And Election Results By U.S. County

 






From the U.S. Census (2015-2019 data).





From here.

06 January 2021

Contempt of Court In 1631

We are a somewhat more civilized society now, even though we may sometimes doubt it. 

Richardson Chief Justice de Common Banc al assises de Salisbury in Summer 1631 fuit assault per prisoner la condemne pur felony, que puis son condemnation ject un brickbat a le dit justice, que narrowly mist, et pur ceo immediately fuit indictment drawn per Noy envers le prisoner et son dexter manus ampute et fix al gibbet, sur que luy mesme immediatement hange in presence de Court.

 

("Richardson, Chief Justice of the Common Bench at the Assizes at Salisbury in Summer 1631 was assaulted by a prisoner there condemned for felony, who, following his condemnation, threw a brickbat at the said justice that narrowly missed, and for this, an indictment was immediately drawn by Noy against the prisoner and his right hand was cut off and fastened to the gibbet, on which he himself was immediately hanged in the presence of the Court.")

Via a Wikipedia article on Law French. 

05 January 2021

Democrats Take Control Of Federal Government By A Nose

The votes are still being counted in Georgia, but a New York Times live forecast analysis based upon votes counted and where the votes remaining to be counted are located is predicting that Democrats will, against all odds, win both U.S. Senate races by thin margins in runoff elections.

This will leave the United States with a Democratic President and Vice President (after what will probably be a tumultuous count of the electoral votes tomorrow in a joint session of Congress whose outcome is nonetheless basically certain), a 50-50 split in the U.S. Senate that gives Democrats control of the Senate by the thinnest possible margin, and a thin majority (reduced from 235 seats immediately after the 2018 election and one special election held after it was held) in the U.S. House of 222 seats where 218 are needed for a majority.

While Biden had a comfortable popular vote lead, he won the marginal state he needed to win the electoral college vote, Wisconsin, by a thin margin of 0.7 percentage points, the margins in the marginal U.S. Senate races will be thin as well (probably about 1.0 percentage points in the race for the marginal seat [UPDATE, the margin was 0.8 percentage points), and the margins in the marginal U.S. House races (the 5th closest) weren't all that large either: ME-2 and NJ-3 were the 5th and 4th closest races and were won by 1.3 percentage points. 

By controlling both houses of Congress and the Presidency, Democrats have immense power to change the country for the better on a variety of fronts. But only if they can hold their caucus together unanimously in the Senate and roughly a 98% consensus in the House. It will help to have President Biden to serve as a party leader and focal point for Democrats. The marginal Democrats in the House and Joe Manchin, the marginal Democrat in the Senate, are quite conservative (although there is no longer any overlap between the elected federal legislators of the parties on a liberal-conservative dimension). 

Any moves they make will have to overcome a 6-3 conservative supermajority on the U.S. Supreme Court with hard core conservatives holding the swing votes in most cases, and the filibuster in the U.S. Senate for ordinary legislation.

The long term well being of the Democratic Party would and its ideals would be greatly served by admitting the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico (at least) as states before the next election, by abolishing the remaining scraps of the filibuster in the U.S. Senate, by passing voting rights legislation, and by increasing the size of the U.S. Supreme Court to allow a majority of liberal justices to be appointed to it. All of this can be accomplished with bare majorities.

A constructive response to COVID-19 and sensible economic measures (as well as a general return to sanity and normalcy in politics after four years of crazy) could also improve the odds that Democrats will get something done and win over the public as a result in an extremely divided nation.

Geographic Causes For American Culture

This paper studies the impact of social learning on the formation of close-knit communities. It provides empirical support to the hypothesis, put forth by the historian Fred Shannon in 1945, that local soil heterogeneity limited the ability of American farmers to learn from the experience of their neighbors, and that this contributed to their “traditional individualism.” Consistent with this hypothesis, I establish that historically, U.S. counties with a higher degree of soil heterogeneity displayed weaker communal ties. 
I provide causal evidence on the formation of this pattern in a Difference-in-Differences framework, documenting a reduction in the strength of farmers’ communal ties following migration to a soil-heterogeneous county, relative to farmers that moved to a soil-homogeneous county. 
Using the same design, I also show that soil heterogeneity did not affect the social ties of non-farmers. The impact of soil heterogeneity is long-lasting, still affecting culture today. These findings suggest that, while understudied, social learning is an important determinant of culture.

Also, here, by the same author:
The 1862 Homestead Act provided free land conditional on five years of residency and cultivation to settlers of the American West. In total, the Act granted 10% of the land in the United States to 1.6 million individuals. This study examines the impact of the Act on long-run development. Using spatial regression discontinuity and instrumental variable designs, we find that areas with greater historical exposure to homesteading are poorer and more rural today. The impact on development is not only driven through differences in the urban share of the population; cities in homesteading areas are less developed and non-agricultural sectors are less productive. Using newly geo-referenced historical census data, we document the path of divergence starting from the initial settlement. We find that homesteading regions were slower to transition out of agriculture. The historical and empirical evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that the transitory distortions caused by the Act’s residency and cultivation requirements induced selection on settlers’ comparative advantage in agriculture. This, in turn, inhibited the development of non-agricultural sectors and the subsequent benefits of agglomeration.

By other authors also via Marginal Revolution:

. . . 

3. “We create a novel reign-level dataset for European monarchs, covering all major European states between the 10th and 18th centuries. We first document a strong positive relationship between rulers’ intellectual capabilities and state-level outcomes…We also show that rulers mattered only where their power was largely unconstrained. In reigns where parliaments checked the power of monarchs, ruler ability no longer affected their state’s performance.” Link here. 

27 December 2020

The Nashville Christmas Day Bomber


UPDATED January 3, 2020: He figured lizard people, aliens and other massive conspiracies were underfoot.

Anthony Quinn Warner, also known as Tony, the Nashville Christmas Day bomber whose bomb injured three people but not critically, damaged 41 buildings, and disrupted telecommunications services for a few days in the area.
"We've come to the conclusion that an individual named Anthony Warner is the bomber and he was present when the bomb went off and that he perished in the bombing," Donald Cochran, U.S. Attorney for the Middle District of Tennessee, told a news conference.
He lived with his parents most of his life in a Nashville, TN suburb including a few years after his dad died, then moved out on his own. His own mom had divorced his dad before he died in 2011 and remarried and is still living. This source notes that:
Warner had lost two close family members in the last decade, leaving him with a sister and nephew, according to his father’s obituary, in addition to the mother. The father was known as “Popeye.” Warner’s high school yearbook lists him as playing golf. Heavy reached a high school classmate who knew his brother, but Tony made so little of an impression that she didn’t remember him.

His dad died in 2011. His brother died of cancer in September 2018.  His sister is 59-year-old Teresa Wardrop.

He lived in the same neighborhood for decades, maybe all his life. Mr. Warner and his brother playing football in the yard as children. The family worshiped at a Roman Catholic church a few miles away. His dad worked for the telephone company for a while when this man was a kid, before it merged into AT&T. 

He never married, had no acknowledged kids, and no no friends. He was age 63. He never voted in his life, although this may have been because he was disenfranchised for his felony conviction. He had no history of political activism, not even a bumper sticker or yard sign. 

He may have bought the explosives 7 years ago legally with an ATF permit but that may have been someone else with a similar name and a false lead. He had an alarm company and did IT consulting for a real estate company for 15 years and retired after weird behavior last month. He was a hard core recluse. He never left home except for work, necessities, camping, and decades earlier family reunions. He kept 'No Trespassing' signs around the home, especially around the RV.

He had brother's POA and used it to transfer house to himself, an act which their mom sued him over a couple of years ago. In January 2019 five months after acquiring it from his brother, he transferred the house that his brother used to own to a 29 year woman, Michelle Swing (see also here), in Los Angeles (who is an unmarried, and apparently a mother of two children, who used to live in Knoxville, Tennessee prior to 2012 where she went to high school and college after which she lived until September of 2018 in San Francisco), then two months later he purported to transferred the house that he'd already given away to the young woman to his mom as well in March 2019 (probably trying to screw her out of an agreed settlement and to benefit the young woman instead). According to the New York Post:

The first home she was given — Warner’s family home in Antioch, less than a mile from his last address and on the same street, Bakertown Road — came as part of a bitter legal battle in which his mother sued him to get it back. His 85-year-old mom, Betty Christine Lane, eventually won, and Swing signed a quitclaim last July to give back the $250,000 house to Lane, who still lives there, according to records.
The young woman said she'd talked to him on the phone once or twice but claims to have never met him in person although was not very forthcoming. He wrote a letter to the 29 year old this Thanksgiving, the day after transferring a duplex that had a steady stream of short term tenants, saying he was camping with his dog over Christmas (something along with fishing and boating that he often did in the past) and mentioning a duplex he gave her on January 2020, with something strange in the basement that he did not describe. This source says:

Swing claims that she was unaware that Warner had signed the $160,000 home over to her is contradictory since a new report claims that Warner informed Swing of the transfer in a letter last month, writing: ‘The attic has plywood and lighting, take a look. The basement is not normal, take a look. Woof woof Julio.’

In the letter, Warner also shared that he ‘intended to travel on Christmas Eve to spend a few weeks in the woods with his dogs’, according to The Sun.
The young woman never visited the property or him, and never signed anything and may not have known that the deed transferring the properties to her was more than a delusion. The young woman moved to California in 2012.

He had lost touch with most of his extended family for last 10 years. 

He was quiet but personable with his clients. He did his jobs and left. 

He made no demands and had no social media or manifestos. He cased the vicinity of the AT&T transmission building a couple times in the week or two before the Xmas morning in downtown bomb with a 15 minute evacuation order and probably fired guns to alert police to come before it blew to evacuate people. He clearly wasn't trying to kill anyone. 

He played a nostalgic song about being lonely and going downtown on a public address system from his RV shortly before he died. 

He was rumored to have had a relationship many years ago with the 29 year old's mom (who is married to someone else), something the Sun reports based upon a police informant (also here and here), with the implication that the young woman either was his biological daughter, or was believed by him to be his biological daughter, or that he made the transfers as a way to benefit the young woman's mom. According to the Wall Street Journal:
Ms. Swing told investigators that she thought he gave it to her because her mother had a prior romantic relationship with Mr. Warner, according to a law-enforcement official briefed on the investigation.
He sent an email to one of his clients three weeks ago to say he was retiring. He started shedding possessions: He told his ex-girlfriend that he had cancer and gave her his car (according to the NYT, which doesn't clarify if the ex-girlfriend was the young woman's mom or who the ex-girlfriend was). Records show that he signed away his home on the day before Thanksgiving. It seems likely that the ex-girlfriend mentioned in the NYT story is Michelle Swing's mother.

According to this Tweet, he was a man that law enforcement was aware of, with at least two tips to the FBI prior to the bombing and one if those by his ex-girlfriend that he was building a bomb was able to detonate a bomb in down town Nashville. The same source described the 29 year old woman as his niece, which is almost surely inaccurate. (The author is a Trump 2020 Christian so could be engaged in conspiracy theory building not backed by any reliable sources.) Authorities deny that he was on their radar in advance, although two tips were received before the bombing.

He was arrested in January 1978 (when he would have been twenty-one years old) and was found guilty on a felony distribution of controlled substances charge in 1980 (the substance was marijuana), he received two years a probation and possibly a year in prison (some of which may have been credit for time served awaiting trial). 
[A] neighbor said Warner had no family — no wife or kids that she knew of. She said he “was very good to the animals he had.” She said he had little dogs, and “when they got older, he built them a ramp so they wouldn’t have to climb.”
He may have been paranoid about 5G, perhaps that it was spying on Americans, but never talked to anyone in real life about it. He messed with his TV antenna on his roof sometimes and had security cameras (given that he did alarm systems for a living, somewhat less notable). The properties that he transferred were free and clear and with the rentals regularly rented, so he wasn't financially strapped (and he had the RV and boat too). 

His motives unclear. Property damages to the AT&T transmission building was apparently the target. 

But why? 

If he was telling the truth about having cancer (and he might easily have been lying), he may have been a dead man walking. Maybe he thought that 5G gave him his cancer and was getting back at the source of it.

Does it make sense to call this domestic terrorism? 

It doesn't seem to have been part of a larger white supremacist/militia campaign to destroy infrastructure as part of a civil war as many suspected at first.

Also, what was strange in the basement of the property? Was he some sort of secret serial killer? Or, did it just have a quirky basement renovation? The lack of news about the basement three days after it was searched by authorities suggests that there probably wasn't anything that notable there.

Some material from this story and this one.

U.S. Population Growth Rate Plummets In 2020


U.S. Census Bureau estimates of U.S. population growth rates. Everything beyond the year 2020 is a projection only. 

Roughly speaking, the U.S. population growth rate dropped by a third in 2020 to an annual rate of about 0.5%.

In addition to excess deaths over normal and decreased births (an impact of about 300,000 people each for the year), legal immigration declined at unprecedented rates, refugee admissions have never been lower, and immigration enforcement activity has been low because few people have tried to enter the country illegally since April when the COVID-19 pandemic developed. Immigration enforcement within the U.S. has been at record lows during the Trump Administration. Immigrants as a share of the total population in the U.S. was flat in 2019 and may have declined in 2020.




24 December 2020

Intellectual Crimes

In Korea, the literally translated term for what are common called "white collar crimes" in the United States, is "intellectual crimes."

For example, "intellectual crimes include fraud, embezzlement, and other financially motivated non-violent crimes."