01 June 2010

Demographic Trends Favor Democrats

[T]he United States is a much different country demographically than it was in 1994. A decade and a half ago, over three quarters of Americans were white. That number has dropped to just over 60% now and is on the way to falling below 50% by the midcentury. In particular, the percentage of Latinos in the U.S. population has nearly doubled (from about 9% to 16%) over the same period. . . .

Millennials identified as Democrats over Republicans by a 2:1 margin (42% vs. 21%) and non-Caucasians did so by over 4:1 (57% vs. 14%). Women also strongly identified as Democrats (44% vs. 24% Republicans). . . .

At least in part as a result of these major demographic changes, the Democratic Party now holds a clear lead among voters in party identification, something it did not have in 1994. . . Democrats enjoy a nine-percentage edge over the Republicans in party ID (45% vs. 36%). In 1994, the two parties were tied at 44% each and in 1995, the year after the GOP won control of Congress, more Americans identified with or leaned to the Republican Party than the Democrats (46% vs. 43%).

Via the Big Orange One.

Research elsewhere has shown that the old rub about the young being liberal and the old conservative, with most people growing more conservative over their lives, is mostly false.

1 comment:

Mishalak said...

I think, rather like science fiction, the projections of "if this goes on" that lead to things like one party dominance or the singularity won't actually come to pass. I expect that the positions will move so that the Democrats and Republicans continue to be somewhat evenly matched and no party will hold more than a 60-40 split for anything other than one congress. Also as they enter the mainstream many interest groups will splinter with a large minority ending up with the Republicans.

I'm always a little dumbfounded that there is already a GOProud when we don't even have marriage equality and they end up endorsing anti-gay candidates like Carley Florina and McCain, but that's the gay 'community'. It will be even more so when equality is actually the law of the land.

Likewise with every other ethnic group, especially Latinos. Their conservative social positions would make them natural Republicans if not for the anti-Latino bent of the current GOP.

I think there is a strong possibility that the face of the Republican party in 2050 being conservative Catholic Latinos.