Ukraine War More Or Less Stalled Territorially

Lots of soldiers on both sides and lots of Ukrainian civilians are still dying, and lots of military equipment is being destroyed. 

But the lines of control on the ground have been more or less static for more than three months of the 13 month old war. Russia has held 7% of Ukraine's territory since 2014, briefly controlled another 15% at its peak about a year ago, and has gradually lost about a third of those more recent gains since then.

Kherson remains the place where it seems mostly likely that Ukraine could make progress. But not particularly strategic Bakhmut and its vicinity seems to continue to be the site of the most actual fighting and massive casualties for few gains for either side.

The latest from Bakhmut: The situation in the eastern Ukrainian city, where fighting has raged for months, remains "under control," the Ukrainian military said. . . . Russian forces still control access to both Bakhmut and the nearby town of Avdiivka on three sides. They have made marginal gains in recent weeks but have been unable to encircle Ukrainian troops in either place. Most of the eastern front lines have changed little in the first three months of this year.

From CNN. 

The map below is from about three and a half months ago and demonstrates the slight gains that Ukrainian forces have made in that time period, mostly west of the Dnipro River near Kherson and just west of Luhansk in the northeast.

This can be compared to the map below (from here) which shows the percentage of people for whom Russian was their primary language in 2001:

Future Prospects

If places where a majority of people claimed Russian as their primary language in 2001 is a good indicator of an equilibrium outcome (which is a plausible assumption), then we would expect some modest additional Ukrainian territorial gains, but probably not for Ukraine to reclaim any significant part of its initial territorial losses from 2014, or a fair share of the additional territory that Russian has gained control of along the Aral Sea. 

Ukraine might have a decent shot at regaining half of the reclaiming half of Russia's remaining post-2014 territorial gains (about 5% of its territory), but will likely have a much harder time reclaiming the 7% of its territory secured by Russia in 2014, and another 5% of its territory gains in the last 13 months that is heavily ethnic Russian.

The prospects that Ukraine will regain control of Crimea, in particular, seem dim. And, honestly, the combination of removing the most heavily Russian enclaves from Ukraine and the shift in attitudes towards Russia and the West respectively that the war has engendered, shifts Ukraine from being on a political tightrope between the West and Russia to being solidly in the pro-Western camp. So, covertly, regaining all of Ukraine's territorial losses would actually probably weaken the Ukrainian government.

A Russian Fighter-Bomber Was Shot Down Today

Kyiv said it shot down a Russian Su-24M bomber near Bakhmut this afternoon. CNN cannot independently verify the claim. 

This Russian fighter-bomber has a top speed of Mach 1.6, a combat range of 615 km, a crew of two, a 23mm canon, and nine hard points that can carry up to 8,000 kg of bombs or missiles. There were about 1,400 of them produced from 1967-1993 and it entered service in 1974.

Substantial numbers of ex-Soviet Su-24s remain in service with Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine. In 2008, roughly 415 were in service with Russian forces, split 321 with the Russian Air Force and 94 with the Russian Navy. The Russian Air Force will eventually replace the Su-24 with the Sukhoi Su-34.

The Su-24M variant that was shot down was manufactured from 1981–1993, while the original non-prototype version was produced from 1971-1983. So, the one that was shot down today was 30-42 years old.

The Sukhoi Su-24 (NATO reporting name: Fencer) is a supersonic, all-weather tactical bomber developed in the Soviet Union. The aircraft has a variable-sweep wing, twin-engines and a side-by-side seating arrangement for its crew of two. It was the first of the USSR's aircraft to carry an integrated digital navigation/attack system.

The SU-24 started development in the early 1960's and entered full production in 1967. Production ceased in 1993. It remains in service with the Russian Air Force, Syrian Air Force, Ukrainian Air Force, Algerian Air Force and various other air forces to which it was exported.

From here. 

The Su-24 is comparable to, but a little smaller and less capable than, the roughly contemporaneously introduced U.S. F-111 bomber (of which 563 were built from 1967 through 1976) with a 14,300 kg payload and March 2.5 top speeds which started service in 1967 (rather than to the long range, heavy U.S. B-1 bomber with a 23,000 kg payload). 

The F-111 was retired as a fighter-bomber in U.S. service in 1996, retired in an electronic warfare configuration in the U.S. in 1998: 

The F-111 was replaced in USAF service by the F-15E Strike Eagle for medium-range precision strike missions, while the supersonic bomber role has been assumed by the B-1B Lancer. 

The F-111 was retired from Australian military service in 2010.

Why Was Russia's Air Force So Weak?

In the bigger military picture, one of the greatest mysteries of the Ukraine War has been the utterly ineffectual role played by the Russian Air Force. It should have been vastly superior to Ukraine's and secured air superiority in Ukraine at the outset. 

But, due to some combination of Ukrainian anti-aircraft weapons Ukrainian fighters defending its airspace, and a Russian Air Force that is a paper tiger without the training, readiness, and resources to operate at anything close to full capacity, this hasn't happened.

Russia has certainly has certainly lost some warplanes, like the latest Russian Su-24 that was shot down today, as has Ukraine. 

But the number of planes lost has been nothing remotely approaching the losses of tanks and other personnel and equipment associated with ground forces. Russia has lost a much smaller share of its warplanes than it has of its tanks, armored personnel carriers, troops, logistics vehicles, and artillery batteries, for example.

Russian Aircraft Losses

On paper, on the eve of the Ukraine War, Russia had 427 ground attack fighters like the Su-24 and 185 air superiority fighters, in addition to a small fleet of long range bombers and its naval aviation aircraft (none in the Black Sea fleet, however).

Now, Russia has lost 78 fixed wing aircraft including 12% of its "on paper" fighter aircraft (15 in the last four months) broken down as follows: 15 air superiority fighters, 59 ground attack fighters not including the one shot down today, 2 long range bombers, and one transport plane), 80 helicopters (9 in the last four months) consisting of 18 transport helicopters, 56 attack helicopters, and 6 helicopters of unknown type), 7 combat unmanned aerial vehicles (3 in the last four months), and 198 reconnaissance  unmanned aerial vehicles (53 in the last four months). The 78 fixed wing aircraft shot down are more specifically: 

• 1 MiG-31BM fighter aircraft
• 1 Su-27 multirole aircraft
• 11 Su-30SM multirole aircraft
• 2 Su-35S multirole aircraft
• 29 Su-25 close air support aircraft
• 1 Su-24MR tactical reconnaissance aircraft
• 9 Su-24M/MR strike/tactical reconnaissance aircraft
• 19 Su-34 strike aircraft
• 1 Su-34M strike aircraft
• 1 Tu-22M3 strategic bomber.
• 1 Tu-95MS strategic bomber
• 1 Il-22 airborne command post.
• 1 An-26 transport aircraft

Ukrainian Aircraft Losses

On paper, on the eve of the Ukraine War, Ukraine had 14 ground attack fighters, 70 air superiority fighters.

Ukraine has the following verified aircraft losses so far:  62 fixed wing aircraft including 69% of its "on paper" fighter aircraft broken down as follows: 27 air superiority fighters, 31 ground attack fighters, and four transport planes, 30 helicopters  consisting of 5 training helicopters, 21 transport helicopters, 1 anti-submarine helicopter, and 3 attack helicopters), 17 combat unmanned aerial vehicles, and 76 reconnaissance  unmanned aerial vehicles. The 62 fixed wing aircraft shot down are more specifically: 

• 18 MiG-29 fighter aircraft
• 9 Su-27 fighter aircraft
• 16 Su-25 close air support aircraft
• 15 Su-24M strike aircraft
• 2 Il-76 transport aircraft
• 2 An-26 transport aircraft

The Military Impact Of Russia's Anemic Air Force

As a result of the lack of Russian air superiority, the Ukraine War has been a war dominated by artillery duels targeted with small reconnaissance drones, satellites and forward observers. Artillery has been the most viable means of attacking at a distance in the absence of effective air power for either side, limited cruise missile supplies, and the vulnerability of armored vehicles at closer ranges.

The lack of Russian air superiority has realistically meant the difference between mostly winning and mostly losing for Ukraine in this war.

Ground Force Equipment Losses

On paper, on the eve of the Ukraine War, Russia had 2,927 main battle tanks, while Ukraine had 858 main battle tanks.

Russia reported that they had 2,600 tanks available at the time of February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and it has lost about 2,000 tanks since then (including about 500 in the last four months) of which 1,901 have been independently verified, although some additional tanks (mostly old and in poor condition) have been pulled out of deep storage and a modest number of new tanks (probably not more than 200-300) have been built in the meantime. So a verified 73% of the claimed original force of Russian tanks (65% of the on paper number) is now gone and the total is probably closer to 77% (i.e. 2,000 tanks).

Ukraine has verified losses of 487 tanks which is 57% of its "on paper" numbers. 

This is a significantly lower percentage than the Russian losses (particularly considering that probably at least 300 Russian tanks are needed outside of the Ukrainian theater for other conflicts and to maintain strength for conflicts that could arise in the future). But both sides have lost a majority of their tanks and tank losses continue to accrue.

The two sides combined have verified losses of 2,388 tanks and this probably underestimates the total which is probably at least 2,500 tanks. This is a large share of the total number of tanks in Europe.

In addition to verified losses of 1,901 tanks, Russia also has verified losses of 818 armored fighting vehicles, 2,253 infantry fighting vehicles, 311 armored personnel carriers, 45 mine-resistant ambush protected (MRAP) Vehicles, 188 infantry mobility vehicles, 235 command posts and communications stations, 298 engineering vehicles, 38 self-propelled anti-tank missile systems, 96 artillery support vehicles/systems, 191 towed artillery, 370 self-propelled artillery, 189 multiple rocket launchers, 17 anti-aircraft guns, 24 self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, 104 surface to air missile systems, 26 radar and communications systems, 30 jammer and detection system, and 2,380 trucks, vehicles and jeeps.

In addition to verified losses of 487 tanks, Ukraine also has verified losses of 269 armored fighting vehicles, 519 infantry fighting vehicles, 236 armored personnel carriers, 46 mine-resistant ambush protected (MRAP) Vehicles, 289 infantry mobility vehicles, 9 command posts and communications stations, 48 engineering vehicles, 21 self-propelled anti-tank missile systems, 23 artillery support vehicles/systems, 118 towed artillery, 128 self-propelled artillery, 40 multiple rocket launchers, 4 anti-aircraft guns, 5 self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, 87 surface to air missile systems, 52 radar and communications systems, 1 jammer and detection system, and 544 trucks, vehicles and jeeps.

Naval Losses

Russia's has lost 12 naval watercraft from its Black Sea fleet including 1 Slava-class guided missile cruiser (Moskva), 5 Raptor-class patrol boats, 1 high-speed assault boat, 2 landing ships, 1 landing craft, 1 minesweeper, and 1 rescue tug. 

This still leaves Russia with multiple submarines and surface warships in its Black Sea fleet. But Ukraine's capacity to cause these losses, together with Russia's loss of control of a key island naval base in the Black Sea near Odessa (after it captured it from Ukraine) has prevented Russia from being able to mount amphibious assaults and has prevented Russia from using its ships to support its ground warfare operations. It's navy can effectively interdict shipping in the Black Sea but it doesn't have much use in the larger war.

Ukraine has lost 25 naval warcraft (essentially all of its Black Sea navy and coast guard), including its only Krivak III-class frigate (Hetman Sahaydachniy), 5 Gyurza-M-class gunboats, 15 patrol boats, 1 Centaur-class fast assault boat, 1 minesweeper, 1 Amur-class command ship (Donbas), and 1 seagoing tugboat.