07 February 2025

Political Identity And The Total Fertility Rate In The U.S.

It is remarkable how closely state by state total fertility rates (roughly speaking, how a point in time estimate of how many children women in the state have per lifetime) track the partisan leanings of those states.

There are a handful of departures (West Virginia and Wyoming with coal based economies are lower than expected for their partisan leaning, and so are Montana and New Hampshire), but overall, it tracks quite closely.

Total fertility rate, in turn, tends to closely track economic development, education, and religiosity, which are probably the true drivers of political identity.

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