The Russian Ruse

The Russian government recently had a huge military parade celebrating the Soviet Union's victory over Germany at the end of World War II, which it calls the "Great War", has recently told the U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance in negotiations related to the Ukraine War that it demands that it receive more land than it has already taken by force over the last three years plus, and has announced an expansion of its navy.

All of this is basically a poker bluff.

In truth, the Russian army hasn't been as depleted as it is now as a result of the Ukraine War since shortly after the Russian Revolution more than a century ago. And, the Russian army is only getting weaker as it suffers more and more military casualties to men and equipment in the Ukraine War that it doesn't have the resources to adequately replace as quickly as it is suffering losses. Russia has not made significant progress in increasing the amount of Ukrainian territory it holds in years and has no strong prospects of doing so in the near future. And, Russia is sadly strapped for money and doesn't actually have the economic resources needed to expand its navy in the way that it claims it is beginning to.

Russia wants to look strong at the negotiating table in the hopes that at least some of its claims are credible enough to secure some concessions in its favor, and in the hope that it will sustain morale at home. So, it has pulled out all stops to create the appearance that it is strong.

Whether these efforts are at all successful remains to be seen. 

If the West stands pat and doesn't give into this bluff by brokering a treaty unduly favorable to Russia to end the Ukraine War, this ruse will continue to fall apart. Indeed, as prior posts at this blog have explored, Russia may virtually run out of key military assets by the time that the fourth anniversary of the Ukraine War rolls around, if not sooner. Ukraine's support from the West, in contrast, gives it greater staying power. Ukraine is still suffering massive losses (both civilian and military) in the war as well, but its Western support (and the more urgent support it has from its people who are facing an existential threat and suffering almost all of the harm to civilians and their property) gives Ukraine a greater ability to replace those losses.