21 December 2014

Will International Economic Mayhem Hurt The American Economy?

I've predicted a Great Depression class economic downturn in China, as early as 2015, or as late as 2024.  China's seen a bit of an upturn in its economy as its taken some measures to address the mounting international consensus, but it remains a strong possibility.

Weak oil prices and a Crimea related embargo (but honestly, more the former than the later) have sent the Russian economy into the danger zone with interest rates skyrocketing to 17%, the value of the Ruble collapsing by more than half despite massive interest rate intervention, and sanctions slightly notching up.

The Greek economy apparently remains fragile after its meltdown earlier this year.

Surely, there is a domino or two that I've left unturned.

The U.S. economy seems to be on the mend after six years of good stewardship from President Obama, but how long can that last?  Military re-engagement in Iraq, major foreign economies in trouble, none of that can be good.  Will we fall into a double dip recession just after coming out of the last one?  Or, will the U.S. economy pick up the slack as foreign competitors are no longer able to perform?

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