19 August 2016

CNN Thinks 273 Electoral Votes Lean Democratic

It takes 270 electoral votes to win the Presidency.

    According to CNN, states worth a combined 273 electoral votes are either "solid Democrat" or "lean Democrat".  This means that Hillary Clinton can win the election without winning a single "battleground" state or a single "lean Republican" or "solid Republican" state, just 81 days before the election.

    Clinton does not need any of the "battleground" states of Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, or North Carolina to win, although she is ahead in the polls, at least narrowly, in all of those states.

    Clinton does not need any of the "lean Republican" states of Georgia, Arizona and Utah to win. The remarkably point is that any of these historically solidly Republican states are even conceivably in play.  She has narrowly led over Trump in some recent polls in Georgia and Arizona, while Trump has led by narrow margins in other polls in those two states.

    If she chooses to, Clinton can focus on simply defending her position in the "lean Democrat" states of Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, and win.

    Real Clear Politics concurs, finding that 272 electoral votes lean Democratic, while 154 lean Republican, with the remaining states with 122 electoral votes classified as "toss up" states that she doesn't need to win.

    RCP puts Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Missouri and the second Congressional District of Maine (with 1 electoral vote) as "toss up" jurisdictions.

    The "no tossup" version of the RCP electoral map awards 362 electoral votes to Clinton and 176 electoral voters to Trump.

    * Meanwhile at 538, their 2016 election forecast gives Clinton an 86% chance of winning (based on a polls only forecast).

    * In sum, Hillary Clinton is in a very strong position going into the general election.

    U.S. Senate Races

    Real Clear Politics also makes predictions in U.S. Senate races.  The current U.S. Senate has 54 Republicans and 46 Senators who caucus with the Democrats.  RCP predicts that the Democrats will gain five seats (Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire) and lose one (Nevada) in this year's election, leaving a 50-50 tie, which will leave the Vice President of whichever party wins the Presidential election as the deciding swing vote.

    When not forced to call a winner in Senate races, RCP believes that nine of the races are toss ups: Arizona (McCain-R), Florida (Rubio-R), Indiana (Open, currently held by a Republican), Missouri (Blunt-R), Nevada (Open, currently held by a Democrat), New Hampshire (Ayotte-R), North Carolina (Burr-R), Ohio (Portman-R), and Pennsylvania (Toomey-R).

    Senator Bennett-D from Colorado is the safest Democratic party held U.S. Senate seat in this year's election in RCP's evaluation.

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