10 February 2023

Biden's Tax Proposals

President Biden's State of the Union address proposed some new taxes with few details. One of those was a Billionaire's minimum tax fleshed out slightly more at CNBC:

Biden renewed his call for levying a tax on billionaires and corporate stock buybacks to reduce the federal deficit.

“The tax system is not fair; it’s not fair,” Biden said. “The idea that in 2020, 55 of the largest corporations in America, of Fortune 500, made $40 billion in profits and paid $0 in federal taxes? $0? Folks, it’s simply not fair.”

The idea was popularized by progressives like Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders in the 2020 campaign. Biden has vowed to not raise taxes on Americans earning under $400,000 annually.

“Now because of the law I signed, billion-dollar companies have to pay a minimum of 15%, God love them,” Biden said to jeers by Democrats. “15%! That’s less than a nurse pays!”

Biden previously proposed a 20% tax on billionaires in March of last year as part of his federal budget. In Tuesday’s State of the Union address, Biden called on Congress to “finish the job.” The proposal did not gain much traction then and is unlikely to go anywhere in the Republican-controlled House.

Another is a fourfold increase in a stock buy-back tax, which according to CNBC via Wonkette, is as follows:

As part of last summer's Inflation Reduction Act, Congress created, for the first time ever, a tax on stock buybacks — the practice of companies buying back big chunks of their stock so that the dividends for investors will be higher. . . . Unfortunately, it's looking like the one percent tax on buybacks in the IRA hasn't done much to slow companies' fondness for the practice, so during the State of the Union, Biden called for the buyback tax to be "quadrupled." As CNBC notes, 
While he didn’t provide details on a new tax proposal, a quadrupling could take the tax from 1% tax to 4%, and the White House could push for the tax to be gross rather than net of any shares issued for employee pay and [mergers and acquisitions].
Actually passing any such increase would be tricky, because Republican House, and as CNBC points out, the buyback tax last summer had to be pared back from two percent to one percent to get the vote of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. Expect the call to increase the buyback tax to feature in 2024 campaigning even if it doesn't get any traction in the current Congress. Oh, and we bet Rep. Ruben Gallego will talk about Sinema's opposition to it in his bid to replace her.

As CNBC details, oil companies have been plowing much of their recent record profits into buying back stock, and tech companies that have been doing layoffs have nonetheless found some spare cash for buybacks — $40 billion last year, in the case of Meta (aka Facebook). Apple spent $90 billion on buybacks in fiscal 2022, too.

One law firm explains the existing stock buy-back tax here. It begins by summarizing the tax as follows:

The new 1% excise tax was enacted last summer as part of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (“IRA”) and generally applies to any US corporation whose stock is traded on an established securities market and that repurchases more than $1 million of stock over the course of a tax year (a “covered corporation”).

Some other tax proposals aimed at people making more than $400,000 a year are likely to echo his proposals from March of 2022:

The “billionaire minimum income tax” calls for a 20% levy on households with a net worth of more than $100 million, affecting the top 0.01% of earners, according to a White House fact sheet.

The 20% tax applies to “total income,” including taxable earnings and so-called unrealized capital gains, or asset growth, with installment payment options and a credit to avoid paying tax on the same wealth twice, the U.S. Department of the Treasury outlined. . . . Senate Democrats floated a similar billionaire tax in October to help fund their domestic spending agenda. However, the proposal failed to gain broad support within the party. . . .

Moreover, if the levy had survived negotiations, it may have faced legal challenges, according to some policy experts, and the overburdened IRS may have struggled to enforce the law.

Biden’s version of the billionaire tax may create administrative challenges for certain taxpayers, such as business owners who fall above the $100 million threshold, according to Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

“Their assets are in their businesses,” he explained. “And it’s very difficult to value those assets.”

Many European countries have abandoned similar taxes due to the burden of assessing individual wealth, Gleckman said.
The budget includes other revenue raisers affecting individuals, such as hiking the top marginal tax rate, higher levies on capital gains for earners above $1 million and treating property transfers like a sale, among others.

As a practical reality, however, getting Congressional support for either measure when Republicans control the House and Democrats have only a thin, not veto-proof majority in the Senate, in which a former Democrat and a conservative Democrat, at least, are skeptical of the proposals.

The billionaire's minimum tax is a weird structure that makes sense politically but is clunky and would be hard to administer. The stock buy-back tax changes the rate on an existing new tax and might be more workable and politically attractive. Higher marginal tax rates for high income earners on ordinary income and capital gains respectively are easy to understand and implement at least.

It isn't clear to me if "treating property transfers like a sale" refers to limiting tax free 1031 exchanges of investment real estate, or to ending the carryover basis for capital gains tax purposes of gifts of appreciated assets and instead treating those gifts as "deemed sales", or to ending the step up in basis of capital gains at death and treating those transfers at death as "deemed sale" (which is what Canada does).

Simply refusing to extend tax breaks from Trump's 2017 tax bill is less flashy and won't happen until after the Presidential election in 2024, but is another option that is much easier to pass if gridlock in the legislative process continues. 

For example, Section 199A which provides a 20% deduction for the passthrough income of passthrough entities expires at the end of the year 2025:

Under current law, almost all the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that modify the individual income tax are scheduled to expire after December 31, 2025. The pass-through deduction is one of these provisions: as currently written, it will no longer be available to households beginning in 2026.

Hastening the currently scheduled expiration of some of these provisions might be a politically easier way for Biden to raise additional tax revenue.

There are myriad other ways to improve tax revenues from the affluent in a manner that advances sound tax policy. For example:

International Taxation
* Do not allow a deduction for payments made by U.S. taxpayers for intangible property owned by foreign taxpayers, regardless of location, including interest, and royalties on account of intellectual property.

Business Expenses
* Do not allow a business expense deduction for meals, lodging, or entertainment, unless the beneficiaries are employees or contractors who have this in kind form of compensation reported on their W-2 or 1099.
* Limit net operating loss carry forwards to three years, do not allow net operating losses to reduce income other than income from that business, and do not allow NOL carry forwards to reduce more than 50% of current taxable income from operating profits from the same business in any given year.

Retirement Savings and Social Security
* Set the maximum income that can be considered in a defined benefit plan's benefit formula equal to the Social Security/self-employment income tax cap, which would be increased to the current defined benefit plan cap. Make Social Security benefits tax free. Increase Social Security benefits to reflect this increased revenue if it can be done on an actuarially sound basis.
* Set a global cap on contributions from defined benefit plans and defined contribution plans (other than contributions in lieu of FICA taxes by governmental defined benefit plans) that can be made per year per person from all sources combined on a tax preferred basis of $10,000 per year, indexed, with defined benefit plans reporting an amount on an information return each year.
* Set an indexed $2,000,000 per beneficiary maximum dollar amount of combined defined contribution plan assets, which is reduced by a formula to take into account defined benefit plan benefits (but not below zero). If a firm has defined contribution plan assets in excess that amount, the excess is a required minimum distribution in the following year.

Capital Gains During Life
* Eliminate Internal Revenue Code § 1031 like kind exchanges for real property.
* Tax capital gains as ordinary income.
* Do not allow capital losses to be applied to income other than capital gains.

Whole Life Insurance
* Tax the increase in the cash value of a life insurance policy with cash value prior to death, which is not attributable to premiums in excess of premiums for comparable term life insurance premiums as taxable income (so that whole life insurance can't be used to generate tax free investment income).

Non-Profits And Municipal Bonds
* Eliminate the income tax exemption for all forms of municipal bonds that are currently tax exempt prospectively (i.e. for municipal bonds issued after the law's effective date).
* Tax the income of tax-exempt entities (e.g. charities and churches) from interest, dividends, capital gains, rent, royalties, and other sources of income from ownership of property at a flat rate equal to the highest individual income tax rate. In the case of payments of interest, dividends, and royalties paid by U.S. taxable limited liability entities or U.S. for profit businesses, withhold this at the source.
* End the charitable deduction for income tax purposes (but not gift and estate tax purposes). Allow a deduction for advertising expenses paid to charitable entities by businesses for advertising.

Gift, Estate, and Capital Gains Taxes At Death
* Treat assets owned by a decedent at death in estates that owe some estate taxes as if they were sold for fair market value on the date of death, subject to (1) a marital deduction - which would get a carry over basis, (2) the exclusion of gain on the sale of a personal residence that would have applied immediately prior to death (or half of that amount for a married decedent), (3) a limited step up in basis to fair market value at death to assets selected by an executor with a fair market value at death of death equal to the value of the assets which are exempt from estate taxation at death, and (4) an ability to elect a carry over basis at death for select assets.
* Eliminate the special step up in basis for capital gains tax purposes for community property.
* Allow a carry over basis at death election for assets to which the marital deduction does not apply for residences in which the recipient resides at the time of death, for vacant land, for farm real estate, for collectible tangible personal property like jewelry and art, for closely held business interests, and for property which cannot be liquidated at fair market value due to restraints upon alienation. The carry over basis must be disclosed on an asset by asset basis to the IRS and the recipient for each such asset for which an election is made.
* Reduce the exclusion from gift and estate taxation to $2,000,000 per per, person lifetime, indexed, inheritable by a surviving spouse. Make all transfers exempt from gift and estate taxation on this basis also exempt from generation skipping transfer taxation.
* Set the estate tax rate at the maximum individual income tax rate.
* Set the gift tax rate and the generation skipping transfer tax rate at the equivalent on a tax exclusive basis to the maximum individual income tax rate on a tax inclusive basis.
* Treat split-interest trusts (charitable remainder trusts, charitable lead trusts, grantor retained interest trusts, qualified personal residence trusts, etc.) as incomplete transactions until the death of the grantor or the completion of the trust term, whichever comes first, with the gift deemed to be made and valued at that time.
* Disallow minority interest discounts (including lack of marketability discounts for a sale of less than a 100% interest in closely held entity) and ignore control premiums in gifts of entity interests.
* Disallow the annual exclusion for gifts of interests in entities, including purchases of entity interests up to the amount of an annual exclusion gift made that are made within one year of receipt of the annual exclusion gift.
* Disallow the annual exclusion for gifts to trusts with Crummy powers.
* Treat taxes paid for the benefit of an irrevocable trust (for gift and estate tax purposes) that is taxed as a grantor trust as a gift taxable gift to the trust.

09 February 2023

About Microsoft

Like most people, I have a love-hate relationship with Microsoft software products. Most of their products are horrible, but in many cases you really can't live without them.

The quality of most of their products is mediocre at best compared to the competition, where it exists. But it is so dominant in the mass market software application segment that often there is no choice other than to use their products. Political scientists call the United States political system "the Microsoft of nations" and it isn't a compliment. It is the Wells Fargo of software companies.

Microsoft is living proof of the fallibility of big business. Its ability to make immense profits and secure huge market shares selling such low quality products is one of the defining paradoxes and economic mysteries of last half century.

The mediocrity of its products is particularly frustrating because this is one of the biggest companies in the world with virtually unlimited resources available to hire the smartest programmers in the world to improve its software. And, the flaws in that software often seem like they should be tantalizingly easy for any half decent programmer to improve upon. Yet, year after year, improvement in their products comes painfully slowly and usually only after its competition has long ago left it in the dust. 

I'll list some of their products to illustrate the point, from worst to best.

1.    The Bing Search engine. 

This is the worst search engine in the entire world. It qualifies as malware.

2.    Microsoft Sharepoint/OneDrive.

This is the worst cloud based file storage app on the market. It is error prone, fussy about names, has an autosave feature that makes it easy to delete work in your current drafts that is a pain to recover previous versions of, and generally prone to breakdowns. All of its competitors are far superior.

3.    Microsoft Teams.

This is the worst collaboration app on the market. It is clunky, unreliable, and unintuitive.

4.     Microsoft Windows.

On the merits, it is probably the worst operating system on the market with the trademark Microsoft traits of being buggy, awkward to use, and unintuitive. However, it is better supported for a novice than Linux.

5.    Microsoft Outlook/Hotmail

This is yet another product with massive market penetration and worst in its market segment quality. Its proactive AI type features are annoying rather than useful. In its Apple OS compatible version it is almost impossible to export emails from which is something that lawyers often have to do. Its email filtering and classification features are crude compared to the competition. It doesn't handle large attachments particularly well. The user interface is clunky and prone to misbehaving if you have fat fingers. It routinely misclassifies important messages as spam.

6.     Microsoft OneNote.

Unlike most major Microsoft Office apps, almost nobody ever uses Microsoft OneNote. Anyone with Microsoft Office who could use it, uses Microsoft Word and Microsoft Excel instead, because they mostly don't even know it exists. It really doesn't meet anyone's needs and clutters up your hard drive.

7.    Microsoft Internet Explorer.

Honestly, Internet Explorer isn't all that horrible, but every other browser on the market in better, which is how IE's market share fell from being the dominant Internet browser in the world to its current pitiful dregs of users who remain, mostly due to inertia.

8.     Microsoft Power Point.

Power Point doesn't have a lot of competitors for some reason and isn't deeply flawed, but inflects pain upon corporate and government workers and students and teachers all over the world because it encourages bad communication and presentation habits. Fortunately, it is stagnant and is rarely mission critical.

9.    Microsoft Word.

Due to compatibility issues, Microsoft Word is the dominant word processor and it has a de facto near monopoly on the word processing software market. So, most of us really can't manage without it in school or work. This is unfortunate, because it is a really bad piece of software. It has far too many features to deal with making the user interface clunky and accident prone. Its "styles" based logic makes it behave badly when all you really want is what you see is what you get. It is good at tricking you into deleting your files (although not nearly as bad as Sharepoint which operates in a completely different way that is totally unintuitive after becoming familiar with Microsoft Word). It is bad enough at math and science text processing that this industry has abandoned it wholesale in favor of LaTex. It is memory hungry. Its autocorrect and AI type features are annoying rather than helpful. It is hard to customize and frequent updates thwart your efforts to do so as well. The subscription model is intrusive and interrupts your workflow. It manages metadata poorly. I could go on for another paragraph or two, but you get the point and probably have first hand experience working with it.

10.    Microsoft Excel.

Microsoft Excel is probably the best of the major Microsoft product lines. Relative ease of use causes it to be used in all manner of applications that a simple spreadsheet wouldn't be expected to be able to handle. International financial institution class teams of economists use it for their economic models. Scientists used it to analyze cutting edge experimental results and to analyze genetic data. Government agencies use it to maintain and share all sorts of statistics. Teachers use it for grade sheets. Coaches use it for team rosters and player statistics. Textbook writers and media outlets use it to make charts and graphs. Small enterprises use it to do basic operations research tasks like optimization. Families use it to do rough drafts of their tax returns. Microsoft Excel isn't the best program at most of the things it does. It can be hard to troubleshoot errors in its formulas which aren't very transparent. The aesthetics of its worksheets often scream "amateur" and crude. But, it doesn't take much skill to use it for fairly sophisticated applications, and it is less buggy than most Microsoft products. It is one of the few Microsoft products that has been a better quality product than many of its competitors for most of its existence, and it is almost as dominant in its market segment as Microsoft Word. It is the A-10 Warthog of office software.

08 February 2023

Gut Reactions To Biden's Proposals

In this post, I comment on the merit of Biden's State of the Union policy proposals that I previously merely summarized.

Proposals Drawing Commentary:

End the pandemic public health emergency. 

Premature in my opinion but I can understand the political imperative to do so.

Increase taxes on those making more than $400K per year and corporations with a "billionaire minimum tax", a 4x tax on corporate stock buybacks and closing loopholes that the very wealthy used to avoid paying taxes. 

Good, although the details of the proposed taxes are vague and the devil is in the details.

Strengthen anti-trust legislation, prevent online platforms from giving their own products an unfair advantage. 

I'm skeptical that anti-trust legislation will help much, and that preventing online companies from favoring themselves is that important, but it isn't a horrible policy that threatens great mischief either.

Stop big tech from collecting data on kids and teens and targeting advertisements at them. Impose stricter limits on the data big tech collects on everyone.

Color me skeptical. The parallel European effort is a complicated mess that doesn't appear to have provided many benefits. 

Pass the Junk Fee Prevention Act limiting hotel surcharges, cable and cell phone company switching fees, concert and ticket service fees, and charging families to sit together on planes.

Crude and not the optimal solution, but it gets the job done.

Pass the PRO Act to make it easier to unionize. 

The devil is in the details. Ultimately, a strong labor market helps unionization more than legal reforms which are lagging rather than a leading indicator.

Increase access to affordable and quality housing.

Possibly good, but extremely vague in the face of a very complex problem with multiple possible solutions. The federal government isn't the main source of the current problems, so it is limited in its capacity to solve them. 

Provide veterans and their spouses with job training and placement upon reentry to civilian life. 

Good, although job training programs have an extremely poor historical record of success despite many, many attempts.

Prosecute criminals who stole pandemic relief money. Triple anti-fraud "strike forces" going after them, double the statute of limitations on these crimes, and crack down on identity fraud by criminal syndicates.

Not bad. Not necessarily my highest priority, but worth doing.

Stop fentanyl production, sale and trafficking with greater enforcement including higher penalties for fentanyl trafficking, more resources for interdiction at the border, and by working with carriers like FedEx to inspect more packages for drugs.

The response is understandable, but I doubt that it will work any better than the drug war has in the past. Decriminalization of what are now illicit drugs and better treatment programs would work better. The shift to highly concentrated fentanyl instead of less potent and easier to work with drugs is itself a nature response to these kinds of measures that put a premium on increasing potency per volume.

Use more resources to reduce violent crime and gun crime such as more community intervention programs and more housing, education and job training. 

These are good things to do whether or not they actually reduce crime. Job training programs rarely work, however, and men, who are most likely to commit serious crimes, tend to benefit much less from educational programs than women do.

Ban assault weapons.

Not very bold, but still a good baby step.

Reform immigration, if not with his comprehensive plan, at least with more equipment and officers at the border, and 

Border enforcement is a lost cause band aid solution that costs money and appeals to conservative gut instincts without really solving the problems that border issues are symptomatic of. Probably does more harm than good. The political drive to do it anyway is understandable.

Seek competition and not conflict with China and unite the U.S. to compete with it. Invest in industries that define the future that China wants to dominate. Work with allies to protect advanced technologies so they are not used against us. Modernize our military. Work with China to advance American interests and benefit the world. Protect the U.S. from Chinese threats to our country and sovereignty.

More balanced and less bellicose than it could be. Still too protectionist in tone that I would like, but to the extent that it undermines hawks from taking more aggressive positions, that's a good thing. Also very vague.

Good Proposals:

Cap the costs of insulin at $35 a month for all Americans, not just those on Medicare. Preserve recent ACA premium subsidies and expanded ACA Medicaid after 2025. Extend the Medicare Trust Fund by two decades. Increase access to home health care and support for family caregivers. Monitor new COVID variants and support new COVID vaccines. Greatly increase funding for cancer research.

Restore the full child tax credit. 

Lift the debt ceiling. Cut the deficit by $2 trillion without cutting Medicare or Social Security. 

Guarantee all workers a living wage. Give workers paid family and medical leave and affordable child care.  

Provide rent so veterans don't become homeless. Reduce suicides by veterans.

Provide preschool to 3- and 4- year olds. Give public school teachers a raise. Increase access to mental health care at school. Connect students to career opportunities in high school. 

Reduce student debt and increase Pell Grants for working and middle class families. Provide two years of community college. 

Give law enforcement the training they need. Fund more first responders and other professionals to address substance abuse and mental health issues. 

Hold police officers and departments that violate the public trust accountable. He's banned federal law enforcement officers from using chokeholds, restricting no knock warrants, and other key elements of the George Floyd Act that didn't pass and he wants to finish the job on police reform. 

a path to citizenship for Dreamers, those on temporary status, farm workers, and essential workers.

Codify Roe v. Wade. Pass the Equality Act to protect LGBTQ Americans, especially transgender young people.

Don't tolerate political violence. Protect the right to vote rather than suppressing it. Honor the results of our elections. Uphold the rule of law. Restore trust in our institutions of democracy. Give hate and extremism in any form no safe harbor.

The U.S. will stand with Ukraine as long as it takes. 

The U.S. will work for more freedom, more dignity, and more peace, not just in Europe, but everywhere.

All good.

More Evidence Supporting The Fit Immigrant Hypothesis

I don't think that it is original to me, although I have a hard time sourcing it, but the "Fit Immigrant Hypothesis" a.k.a. the "Healthy Immigrant Effect" is that immigrants are, in almost all respects, more socio-economically and physically fit individuals than non-immigrants, relative to the source population and frequently, relative to the destination population. 

This is basically because you don't immigrate unless you are confident that you will succeed if you do so and have the drive to make a big change, which most people don't. Not everyone is accurate in evaluating their fitness, even in this high stakes context, but on average, they are more right than wrong.

The beginning of a new paper on the topic and its citation are as follows:

Hispanics in the United States tend to have lower household income, education, and health insurance coverage when compared to non-Hispanic Whites. Despite these economic disadvantages, paradoxically, Hispanics have displayed an equality with or even advantages over other minority groups and non-Hispanic Whites across a wide range of health outcomes. 
For example, in 2019, the Hispanic population had a life expectancy advantage of 3.0 years over the non-Hispanic White population and 7.1 years relative to the non-Hispanic Black population, despite having real household income that was 26 percent lower than non-Hispanic White households (Wilson 2020). Hispanic immigrants have also shown lower infant mortality rates and prevalence of mental illnesses. 
These stylized facts are collectively known as the “Hispanic health paradox.” This essay will provide an overview of the Hispanic health paradox literature. We will document different instances of the Hispanic health paradox across various measures: life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rate, death rates, causes of death, and morbidity. 
We will discuss the leading explanations of the Hispanic health paradox and possible ways for economists to contribute to this discussion. The origin of the Hispanic health paradox is often traced to the seminal paper by Markides and Hazuda (1980), in which the outperformance of Hispanics was deemed an “epidemiological paradox.” The authors found that Mexican Americans in southwest Texas had a lower infant mortality rate relative to other groups, including non-Hispanic Whites. Markides and Coreil (1986) reported the same phenomenon for life expectancy, mortality, disease-related health outcomes, and mental and functional health. In fact, the first 
Hispanic health advantage reported was observed for mental health among Mexican Americans (Karno and Edgerton 1969). Markides and Eschbach (2005) renamed these advantages the Hispanic paradox. In their discussion, they highlight the role of immigration in explaining the paradox, with the initial assumption that immigrants need to be healthy enough to endure the cost associated with immigration: travel, adaptation to new customs, new laws, and potentially with few resources or support available. 
The Hispanic health paradox is closely tied to the “healthy immigrant effect” (also known as the “healthy immigrant paradox”). The healthy immigrant effect is an observed time path in which the health of immigrants just after the migration is substantially better than that of comparable native-born people, but worsens with additional years in the new country. 
Stephen et al. (1994) were the first to identify this effect using the 1989 National Health Interview Survey, because this was the first time the survey incorporated the number of years lived in the country. Since then, various authors have identified this effect across numerous health outcomes.

José Fernandez, Mónica García-Pérez, and Sandra Orozco-Aleman, "Unraveling the Hispanic Health Paradox" 37(1) Journal of Economic Perspectives 145-168 (Winter 2023).

Did Islamic Law Substitute For Institutional Constraints On Political Power?

A new paper asks why the Islamic political theory tradition, in contrast to Greco-Roman classical  period political theory, doesn't discuss institutions constraining political power until the 19th century. Its authors conclude that this was due to a political consensus created by Islamic law, which made fear of a popular revolt if leaders strayed to far from Islamic law's mandates more viable. 

Despite its roots in an in depth analysis of Islamic political thought and game theory style "social science" analysis, this model is basically wrong. It misses the forest for the trees. It fails to recognize that institutional constraints on abuses of politician power were also missing in the Western and Confucian traditions in the same time period. And, it also fails to recognize that grass roots revolts were not a serious threat to political leaders in that era almost anywhere in the world and didn't last long when the gained brief victories. 

A model that sees the rise of democracy as driven by economic development that requires the willing consent and cooperation with the nation's leader from a broad merchant class when its role in the economy eclipses that of economic rents from land and other natural resources which the ruled owned directly or indirectly, better describes the circumstances in which institutional constraints on abuses of political power arise. And this economically driven model explains these developments without regard to religious and moral systems like Islam, Christianity, Judaism, and Confucianism.

The Paper

Institutional constraints to counter potential abuses in the use of political power have been viewed as essential to well functioning political institutions and good public policy outcomes in the Western World since the time of ancient Greece. A sophisticated intellectual tradition emerged to justify the need for such constraints. 
In this paper we identify a new puzzle: such an intellectual tradition did not exist in the Islamic world, even if the potential for abuse was recognized. We develop a model to explain why such ideas might not have emerged. We argue that this is due to the nature of Islamic law (the Sharia) being far more encompassing than Western law, making it easier for citizens to identify abuses of power and use collective action to discipline them. We study how the relative homogeneity and solidarity of Islamic society fortified this logic.
A. Arda Gitmez, James A. Robinson & Mehdi Shadmehr, "Missing Discussions: Institutional Constraints in the Islamic Political Tradition" NBER Working Paper 30916 (February 2023). DOI 10.3386/w30916

The Rest Of The World Was The Same In This Era

One big flaw is the paper's analysis is that in the time period in question during which Islamic political thought didn't seriously consider institutional constraints on political power, i.e. from the 7th to the 18th centuries, institutional constraints on political power were extremely rare in the Western tradition as well. 

While there were periods of democratic governance in the classical Greco-Roman civilization, by the 7th century, those democratic institutions were well and truly dead outside a few free cities and "barbarian" tribes outside the Western political theory tradition. Prior to classical Greco-Roman civilization, monarchy and other forms of dictatorships were predominant in the region that would later be influenced by the classical civilization's influence. Even in the classical Greco-Roman era itself, democratic governance was frequently flawed, geographically spotty, and only intermittent. But, ultimately, the political and legal institutions of Greco-Roman civilization at its peak turned out to be premature and collapsed. 

Greco-Roman legal concepts and classical intellectual achievements of other kinds were only starting to be received back into Western civilization in the renaissance starting in the late 15th century, a millennium after the fall of the Western Roman empire. The Reformation, while adopting somewhat democratic religious institutions in some places (e.g. Geneva) in the 16th century, still left the church subordinate to secular rulers. The intellectual seeds that eventually gave rise to the American Revolution, the French Revolution, and the diminution of the power of the monarchy vis-a-vis parliament in England were only starting to emerge in the 18th century Enlightenment movement in the West.

Hereditary monarchies were the predominant rule in Western Civilization from the 7th to the 18th centuries, as well as in the Bronze Age and in the early Iron Age civilizations of the Mediterranean represented, for example, by the Hellenic dark ages following the Bronze Age collapse of ca. 1200 BCE.  

The only countries that were more than city-states of any consequence in this time period with legally recognized institutional constrains of consequence were the tiny, remote, and weak Icelandic Commonwealth (between the establishment of the Althing in 930 and the pledge of fealty to the Norwegian king with the Old Covenant in 1262), the Venetian Republic (from 697 until 1797), a few small "free" city-states, and England (and its colonies) often dated back to the Magna Carta (in 1215 with a rocky start to its acceptance at first). But, even in England from the 13th to the 18th century, the monarchy's political power was far from symbolic only as it is today, and was routinely abused, except during the eleven year interruption of the semi-democratic Republic of the Commonwealth of England (from 1649 to 1660 when England and Wales, later along with Ireland and Scotland, were governed as a republic after the end of the Second English Civil War and the trial and execution of Charles I).

For the most part, in this era, even nominally republican city states were ruled by quasi-hereditary councils of leading quasi-aristocratic families for the most part. For example, per the link above, the Venetian Republic "was ruled by the doge, who was elected by members of the Great Council of Venice, the city-state's parliament, and ruled for life. The ruling class was an oligarchy of merchants and aristocrats."

In the period from the 7th to 18th centuries (apart from the last few decades of that time period), in Western civilization, like the parallel periods in Islamic civilization, the primary constraints on abuses of political power were moral condemnations from religious leaders. 

Also, in that time period in Chinese civilization, in Korea, and in Japan, the primary constraints on abuses of political power were Confucian moral precepts. 

Grass Roots Results Were Not A Check On Abuses Of Political Power

The other big flaw is seeing the threat of a possible revolt or revolution as a significant constraint on abuses of political power. 

But, in reality, in both the Islamic world and in the Western tradition (and also in the areas that are part of the Confucian tradition), grass roots revolts were basically non-existent. Leaders who fell were instead taken down in succession fights launched by high aristocrats and conquests launched by other non-democratic regimes.

Monarchs and dictators, for all of their symbolic roles, are still mere human beings, not gods. They only have power to the extent that other powerful and strong people follow their leadership. This is an inherent institutional constraint of every political system, democratic and non-democratic alike. They are followed to a great extent because of the legitimacy arising from their uncontested succession or seizure of power to start a new dynasty or acquire new territory. But if they antagonize their powerful and strong subordinates too much, their power can erode, either incrementally if they are ignored, or dramatically, in some sort of coup. Democratic institutions to check political abuses and provide an alternative non-violent means of securing regime changes can discourage disregard for the authority of the regime's leaders and extra-legal successions. But young democracies in newly independent countries routinely experience both of these kinds of difficulties.

More From The Paper

While its thesis is basically wrong, and its game theoretic styled analysis section has dubious merit, the paper does, nonetheless make some interesting observations. The body text of the paper explains:

[A]n intellectual tradition reaching as far back as Plato and Aristotle. . . . provided mechanisms via which power, unconstrained by institutions, would lead to abuses and undesirable policy outcomes. . . . A similar intellectual tradition never arose in the Islamic world. This is despite the fact that Muslim thinkers were concerned about abuses of power and had access to much of the discussion of institutional political constraints by classical Greek philosophers (for example Plato’s Republic and Laws, and Aristotle’s Ethics, even if not his Politics). Of course, positive theories exist that aim to explain the absence of ruler-constraining institutions in the Islamic civilization. . . . 
What this research does not explain however is why notions of institutional constraints on rulers did not develop even in theory in the millennium from the rise of Islam in the 7th century to the 18th century, prior to the emergence of broader modernization and Westernization currents in the Ottoman Empire and Iran. . . . Muslim thinkers, jurists, philosophers failed to develop, even in theory, ideas about the necessity of institutional mechanisms that aimed to constrain rulers. This cannot be attributed to an absence of innovation or ignorance of related ideas. . . . 
In our model, government policies are divided into two categories: those that are prescribed by divine law, and those that are not. For example, divine law may prescribe a 10 percent tax on particular goods, but may not specify whether the revenue should be spent on improving roads or education. The scope of divine law varies across societies. Some do not have divine law (e.g., the Roman Republic and Ancient Greek city-states); some have divine law with a broad scope (e.g., most Islamic societies and some Jewish societies in antiquity); in others, divine law has a limited scope in public policy (e.g., most Christian societies). . . . Critically, when a government policy is prescribed by divine law, believers know the right policy for them. When divine law is silent, they remain uncertain about the right policy, i.e., the policy that is congruent with their preferences. When the scope of divine law is broader, it prescribes a larger fraction of government’s policies: At one extreme, divine law has no scope, and hence non-existent in public policy; at the other extreme, divine law specifies all public policies. . . . while Islamic law was not monolithic, differences among mainstream interpretations were small compared to the wide range of possible laws that could be. . . . 
Our main result is that when the scope of divine law is broader, the added benefits of institutional constraints on rulers are smaller. A broader scope of divine law reduces the uncertainty among majority citizens about the correct government policy, facilitating collective action and reducing the gains from institutional constraints. Moreover, we show that the marginal effect of (a broader scope of) divine law is larger when the society is more homogeneous or when there is more solidarity amongst society. A broader scope of divine law enables citizens to better know when their rulers deviate from the right policy; however, this knowledge helps them only if they can mobilize, and their mobilization capacity depends on their homogeneity and solidarity. This implies a complementarity between the scope of divine law on the one hand and homogeneity and solidarity on the other. Our interpretation of these results is that the characteristics of Islamic civilization (in particular, a law with a broad scope stemming from the Quran, Hadiths, and early traditions), combined with the nature of society, meant that it was less desirable to construct institutional constraints on rulers along the lines advocated in the West in one form or another from Plato and Aristotle onwards. 
Given the costs of such institutions, revolt was a more effective disciplining device. We argue that this is a potential explanation for the lack of an intellectual tradition proposing institutional constraints. Islamic intellectuals and scholars were perfectly aware of the problem of tyranny, but saw the desirable solution as being different. 

An interesting comparison, as we will discuss, is with Jewish civilization. Here, as in Islam, the scope of divine law was also broad, and the discussion of institutional constraints on rulers was absent throughout the first and second temple periods from the founding of the state up until its absorption into the Roman empire. In contrast, in the Greek and Roman civilization, in which there was no divine law, and in the subsequent Christian civilization, in which the scope of divine (canon) law was far narrower, arguments for institutional constraints on rulers were more common—even if in rudimentary forms in some periods.
. . .

Institutional Constraints on Rulers in the Islamic Tradition 

As the prophet, Mohammad (d. 632) was the leader (imam) of the Islamic community (umma). The Constitution of Medina also recognizes Mohammad as the ultimate judge and arbitrator in case of disagreements among the members of umma. The tribal nature of early Muslim society and Mohammad’s emphasis on building consensus through consultation (shur¯a), combined with his prophetic charisma, would alleviate concerns about the concentration of coercive power. 
Upon Mohammad’s death, Ab¯u Bakr (d. 634) took over as the imam and adopted the title of caliph (khal¯Ä±fa, meaning “successor” or “deputy”). The rebellion and killing of the third caliph, ‘Uthman (d. 656), led to a legitimacy crisis, which evolved into the First Civil War (656-661) during the fourth caliph, ‘Ali (d. 661). In turn, ‘Ali was assasinated and his challenger Mu‘awyah (d. 680), a kinsman of ‘Uthman and the governor of Syria, became the next caliph. Concerns about tyranny of rulers became widespread by the time of Mu‘awyah. Mu‘awyah established hereditary succession (and hence is known as the first caliph of the Umayyad dynasty) and centralized power. 
By the late 7th century, the fourth Umayyad caliph ‘Abd al-Malik (d. 705) “wanted his subjects to believe that the power and the kingship. . . was a possession. . . granted by God and inalienable according to the divine will. The corollary of the assertion. . . was that disobedience to the caliph and his subordinate officers was a refusal to acknowledge God and so tantamount to unbelief”. The title caliph referring to the deputy of God (khal¯Ä±fat All¯ah), as opposed to the deputy of God’s messenger (khal¯Ä±fat ras¯ul All¯ah), appeared on coinage for the first time during ‘Abd al-Malik’s reign. 
Umayyad caliphs and their sumptuous lifestyle were sharp departures from the behavior of Mohammad and his immediate successors. Various revolts broke out over “the Umayyad manner of distributing revenues. . . maltreatment of the Prophet’s family, tyranny and the like." However, we have no record of discussions about institutional constraints on rulers in that period. This puzzling absence persists during the Abbasid dynasty, which followed the Umayyads in 750, and throughout various dynasties and kingdoms in the following millennium. 
First, we establish this puzzling absence. Then, we argue that the comprehensive nature of Islamic law facilitates disciplining rulers by revolt (at least it was so perceived), thereby reducing the marginal gains from imposing institutional constraints. To establish this puzzle, following Rosenthal’s classic categories, we divide political writings in Islamic civilization into three groups, depending on whether their primary foundation is Islamic law, philosophy, or advice-giving in the manner of Mirrors of Princes. We provide brief discussions of a few well-known examples in each category to touch on the political themes that Muslim thinkers engaged with and to demonstrate the absence of discussions about institutional constraints on rulers in those works. Such discussions are also absent in more comprehensive surveys of Islamic political thought. 
Obviously, the corpus of Islamic writings with direct political implications is vast. For example, the above categories do not include the writings and traditions of mystic orders that sometimes had direct political implications. However, mystic orders with their emphasis on the spiritual (and sometimes temporal) leaders with divine inspiration tended to be even less concerned with institutional constraints. While many scholars have studied the absence of institutional constraints on Islamic rulers in practice, the literature has not identified the puzzling absence of discussions about institutional constraints in theory. 
Some came close. For example, Crone keenly observes: “it was the scholars who formulated the law that the imam was meant to execute; by their own account, it was also they who elected and deposed him on behalf of the community. One would have thought that there was only a short step from all this to the view that the scholars should also monitor his performance, for example by forming independent councils authorized to signal when the rules had been breached, to strike out illegal decisions, and to block their execution. 
Small though the step may seem, however, there were few who took it.” Crone goes on to provide a few, short-lived, attempts on the eve of the Abbasid revolution, in North Africa and in Spain, to form councils that would rule along with the rulers. None of these attempts gained significant traction and they stand as exceptions proving the rule. Roy notes that the “poverty of Islamist thought on political institutions is striking, considering the emphasis Islamism places on politics”. 
Overall, institutional constraints on rulers or “republics. . . were ignored by the normative tradition.” These scholars do not offer an explanation for these “missing discussions” in the Islamic normative tradition. One may be tempted to attribute this absence to Muslim thinkers’ limited access to the Greco-Roman philosophical writings or history. 
For example, while Plato’s Republic and Laws and Aristotle’s Ethics were familiar to Muslim philosophers, it seems that they did not have access to a translation of Cicero’s De re publica, or Aristotle’s Politics where theories of mixed constitutions were more explicitly advocated. However, this view would imply that, without the help of the Greeks’ discoveries, many generations of Muslim thinkers somehow could not take what Crone calls “a short step” toward even a theoretical discussion of institutional constraints on rulers. Their “political horizon. . . did not reach to suggesting reforms or offering alternative institutions,” as Halbertal and Holmes describe some of their earlier Jewish counterparts in antiquity. 
We believe that this view is highly implausible. The vast territory of the Islamic Empire included people of various geographical and religious backgrounds, some of whom interacted routinely with Muslim scholars and many of whom played key roles in translating the vast corpus of Greek knowledge into Arabic. That generations of Muslim scholars over huge geographical and time periods simply did not have any knowledge of the political structure of Greek city-states, the Roman Republic, or even the Roman Empire with its Senate seems unlikely. As Gutas argues, “as late as. . . tenth century, the historian H. amza al-Is. fah¯an¯Ä± (d. after 350/961) relates that when ‘he needed information on Graeco-Roman history, he asked an old Greek, who had been captured and served as a valet, to translate for him a Greek historical work orally. This was accomplished with the help of the Greek’s son, Yumn, who knew Arabic well.’ This report establishes that oral translation by native speakers of whatever language within the Islamic domain did occur and that, as might have been expected, it must have been widely practiced”. 
To make sense of the puzzle, one must go beyond explanations that Muslim thinkers (and their Jewish counterparts, see below) did not discuss institutional constraints on rulers even in theory because they did not learn their potential usefulness from Aristotle and Cicero.

Select Online Comments About The Article

There is discussion of the article at Marginal Revolution where I saw the link to the article myself. Here are some quotes from that discussion from multiple commentators whom I do not specifically cite but are identified in the source (mostly by pseudonyms):

It's hard to envision a culture that comes up with an intellectual tradition to constraints to counter potential abuses in the use of political power like the West has when the central figurehead is a dictatorial warlord whose rules and ethics rules of conquest would shock even middle-age European rulers. . . . many of the rules enshrined in Sharia are precisely what we would call abuses of political power, repression of religious minorities, women, and the citizenry codified into religious law. It's tough to come up with an intellectual tradition of freedom when the intellectual tradition of your culture is codifying highly specific and exact rules for enacting barbarism and warlordism in your holiest texts.

It's arguably kind of hard when your central figure is the unquestionable semi-divine leader of an apocalyptic cult, but eh.

The concept of abuse of political power depends on the notion that there can be such thing as abusing political power. In the vast majority of pre-modern societies, there was a monarch, and the monarch was a god. In Ancient Egypt you had the Pharaohs, for instance, in China you had the emperor with a "mandate of heaven," in 17th century France, Louis XIV said he was the state. Absolutist monarchs did whatever he wanted and that was it. The ancient Greeks were the first who developed this concept because their society was very weird compared to other pre-modern societies. They lacked a centralized government and instead were divided into thousands of tiny city-states which often were democratic. Since power in these city-states was shared instead of concentrated into a single ruler, they had to develop notions of legitimate and illegitimate use of political power.

"A sophisticated intellectual tradition emerged to justify the need for such constraints. In this paper we identify a new puzzle: such an intellectual tradition did not exist in the Islamic world, even if the potential for abuse was recognized." It is not that it didn't exist. It was that it was rejected. The Islamic world is as much an heir to the Greek world as the West. More so as they got the central Greek lands like Alexandria. What is interesting is the Islamic world also rejected the Islamic model of government - rule by an Imam or at least an elected member of Muhammed's family - in favor of military dictatorship by Turks. So when it came to people in power the Islamic world got sophisticated thinkers like Ghazali who said that nothing was as bad as civil strife so the Authorities had to be supported no matter what.

People really shouldn't use the word "law" for Sharia or Jewish law. They are not law in the sense that Western law is law. They are, as they say, all encompassing guides to daily life. Sharia in particular has nothing much to say about government but a lot to say about diet and masturbation. It does not help to have a religious scholar who can tell you whether you can eat a goat that has been properly slaughtered after it has been gang raped when the issue is despotism. It is made worse because the Cadi Justice Max Weber criticized is a real thing in Sharia. Any hand book of Islamic law will have scholarly opinions but they will usually go something like "The Founder of the School and his second most famous student said you can't, while the most famous student said you can". So the judge gets to pick. Both options are valid.

"making it easier for citizens to identify abuses of power and use collective action to discipline them." Notice the smooth glide from identifying an abuse to correcting it. Not sure that the two have much to do with each other. The problem is that Islamic law is not much concerned about government and so it allows a lot of leeway for the people in power. Essentially if the ruler really wants to do something, it is Islamic. This is why the Ottomans can take the children of their dhimmis even though it is specifically forbidden by Sharia. Why they can have more than four wives too.

"We study how the relative homogeneity and solidarity of Islamic society fortified this logic." No one in their right mind would describe Islamic societies as anything like homogeneous. That is the point of Coons' mosaic model. And solidarity? Please. Someone needs to read Ibn Khaldoun.

I would temper some of this commentary, however, by noting that just as there is nothing inherently Christian about Western political theory, there is nothing about Islam that inherently prevents it from evolving republican governments with institutional constraints on abuses of political power. 

While they aren't perfect examples, in part, because they are fairly young democracies, Iran, Turkey, Lebanon, Tunisia, Egypt, Kosovo, Iraqi Kurdistan, and Indonesia, for example, all have reasonably democratic governments in Islamic countries, at least compared to the absolute monarchies of the past and those of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Brunei, and Oman, to give a few examples, today. Syria and Morocco are edge cases transitioning between democratic and autocratic systems and are not entirely one or the other.

Basically, different Islamic countries are at different places in their political development and mostly lag behind developed Western countries. The most politically advanced approach the level of development seen in the early 20th century in some countries in the West. Many are at a level of development comparable to the Victorian era. Some are culturally back where the West was in the 18th century. 

I have little doubt that in due time, many of these countries will evolve political driven by their economic development. In time, many will come to develop a culture similar to that of Muslims who have lived their entire lives fully participating in the cultural life of developed Western countries like the U.S., Canada, Sweden, England, France, Italy, and Germany.

07 February 2023

President Biden's State Of The Union Policy Initiatives In A Nutshell

President Biden's State of the Union address this evening focused on a bipartisan bread and butter moderate agenda, as well as touting a great many of the successes he's had in the first two years of his term that haven't received much attention. Incidentally, his factual claims (especially of "good news" he takes credit for) faired well when subjected to fact checking, although who gets credit for good news is always a subjective matter to some extent.

Stripped of the anecdotes and themes ("finish the job"), as usual, there was a list of major policy initiatives for his next two years which he announced. 

I've reviewed the transcript of his speech and distilled those policy initiatives from it. Agenda items in a State of the Union address are much more likely to happen than policies merely mentioned in a political party platform in the United States.

Health Care

Cap the costs of insulin at $35 a month for all Americans, not just those on Medicare. Preserve recent ACA premium subsidies and expanded ACA Medicaid after 2025. Extend the Medicare Trust Fund by two decades. Increase access to home health care and support for family caregivers. 

End the pandemic public health emergency. Monitor new COVID variants and support new COVID vaccines. Greatly increase funding for cancer research.

Taxes And Public Finance

Increase taxes on those making more than $400K per year and corporations with a "billionaire minimum tax", a 4x tax on corporate stock buybacks and closing loopholes that the very wealthy used to avoid paying taxes. Restore the full child tax credit. 

Lift the debt ceiling. Cut the deficit by $2 trillion without cutting Medicare or Social Security. 

Business Regulation

Strengthen anti-trust legislation, prevent online platforms from giving their own products an unfair advantage. 

Stop big tech from collecting data on kids and teens and targeting advertisements at them. Impose stricter limits on the data big tech collects on everyone. 

Pass the Junk Fee Prevention Act limiting hotel surcharges, cable and cell phone company switching fees, concert and ticket service fees, and charging families to sit together on planes.

Worker's Rights And Economic Security

Pass the PRO Act to make it easier to unionize. Guarantee all workers a living wage. Give workers paid family and medical leave and affordable child care. Increase access to affordable and quality housing. 

Education

Provide preschool to 3- and 4- year olds. Give public school teachers a raise. Increase access to mental health care at school. Connect students to career opportunities in high school. 

Reduce student debt and increase Pell Grants for working and middle class families. Provide two years of community college. 

Veteran's Benefits

Provide veterans and their spouses with job training and placement upon reentry to civilian life. Provide rent so veterans don't become homeless. Reduce suicides by veterans.

Crime And Law Enforcement

Prosecute criminals who stole pandemic relief money. Triple anti-fraud "strike forces" going after them, double the statute of limitations on these crimes, and crack down on identity fraud by criminal syndicates.

Stop fentanyl production, sale and trafficking with greater enforcement including higher penalties for fentanyl trafficking, more resources for interdiction at the border, and by working with carriers like FedEx to inspect more packages for drugs.

Give law enforcement the training they need. Fund more first responders and other professionals to address substance abuse and mental health issues. Use more resources to reduce violent crime and gun crime such as more community intervention programs and more housing, education and job training. 

Hold police officers and departments that violate the public trust accountable. He's banned federal law enforcement officers from using chokeholds, restricting no knock warrants, and other key elements of the George Floyd Act that didn't pass and he wants to finish the job on police reform. 

Ban assault weapons.

Immigration

Reform immigration, if not with his comprehensive plan, at least with more equipment and officers at the border, and a path to citizenship for Dreamers, those on temporary status, farm workers, and essential workers.

Abortion, Gay Rights and Democracy

Codify Roe v. Wade. Pass the Equality Act to protect LGBTQ Americans, especially transgender young people.

Don't tolerate political violence. Protect the right to vote rather than suppressing it. Honor the results of our elections. Uphold the rule of law. Restore trust in our institutions of democracy. Give hate and extremism in any form no safe harbor.

Foreign Policy

The U.S. will stand with Ukraine as long as it takes. 

The U.S. will work for more freedom, more dignity, and more peace, not just in Europe, but everywhere.

Seek competition and not conflict with China and unite the U.S. to compete with it. Invest in industries that define the future that China wants to dominate. Work with allies to protect advanced technologies so they are not used against us. Modernize our military. Work with China to advance American interests and benefit the world. Protect the U.S. from Chinese threats to our country and sovereignty.

Is The U.S. Misreading The Nature Of China's Threat To Taiwan?

An interesting analysis casts doubt on the worst case scenario that is one of the biggest drivers of the U.S. defense budget (especially for the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps), which is the fear that the U.S. would have to help defend Taiwan from an amphibious invasion of Taiwan from the Chinese mainland. 

The argument that this isn't the right threat to be planning for is that while China has a large and modern navy, that its amphibious forces are far smaller (about 100,000 troops at most, perhaps a hundred or two hundred ships, and scores of helicopters) than what history teaches us is necessary for a large and successful amphibious invasion. 

The last significant amphibious invasion in world military history was more than 72 years ago and that too suggests that some skepticism is in order. Perhaps this tactic hasn't be used for generations because it no longer makes military sense.

China's military might be ill suited to a credible mass amphibious assault on Taiwan because that isn't the real or likely threat to Taiwan and other U.S. allies in the region. If so, the right kind of U.S. response to a Chinese threat to U.S. allies in the region might be very different than the one that military planners and lobbyists for defense contractors are currently focused upon.

Unlike Russia, there is no indication that China is prone to take precipitous military action that has a high risk of turning out disastrously. 
Three World War II campaigns are relevant: operations Overlord, Causeway, and Jubilee. 
Overlord was the landing at Normandy on June 6, 1944. About 180,000 British, Canadian, French, and American soldiers disembarked from some five thousand ships and small craft on the first day. 
Operation Causeway planned for four hundred thousand marines and soldiers and six thousand ships and small craft to invade Taiwan; it never happened, deferred by the invasion of the Philippines.
Operation Jubilee was the disastrous raid on Dieppe against the Nazis in August 1942. Approximately 10,500 allied troops, mostly Canadian, were carried in about 240 ships and small craft landing on the northern coast of France. The assault was immediately repulsed by the Germans with substantial British losses. 
The last major amphibious operation under fire was Inchon during the Korean War in late 1950. 
During the 1991 Iraq War, the U.S. Marines lobbied for an amphibious assault from inside the Gulf. That was denied as too dangerous. The Marines instead were used as a decoy force. With today’s precision weapons and ubiquitous surveillance, any amphibious operations would be even more difficult and costly.
While the exact size and capability of the PLA for conducting large-scale amphibious operations is uncertain, in general terms, China’s navy has about thirty thousand marines and a combined seventy large amphibious ships. China has two and is building a third helicopter assault ship that reportedly can carry about nine hundred marines. Taken together, these ships could carry perhaps fifteen to twenty thousand marines, and possibly as many as thirty thousand.

The PLA also has six army amphibious combined arms brigades with a total of twenty-four-to-thirty thousand troops and up to fifteen Special Operations (SOF) brigades. However, as with airborne troops, deploying SOF across the Taiwan straits in helicopters raises logistics problems that restrict their use over such a distance and in uncertain weather conditions.

It can be argued that China’s large shipbuilding industry could turn out the thousands of smaller landing craft essential for an amphibious assault. However, those shipyards build big ships, and making any transitions would be time-consuming, expensive, and difficult to conceal.

From a Chinese perspective, an invasion would be a worst-case option. Greater pressure can be applied by threatening or imposing a blockade against Taiwan, cutting off access by sea and air, and by economic sanctions. Grabbing small offshore islands belonging to Taiwan as leverage is well within PLA capabilities. Leninist doctrine has long called for regime change from within, as China could step up its attempts to use internal Taiwanese politics to effect a change.

And China could destroy or threaten to destroy Taiwan’s infrastructure under a rain of missiles after attempting a Dieppe-like assault to gain a foothold. But a traditional amphibious assault is more problematic.

Taiwan’s geography is unsuitable for those as well as amphibious operations, as it lacks the beaches of Normandy or Luzon. There are only a handful of landing sites on the west coast. Mountainous areas run the length of the 250-mile-long island, some topping ten thousand feet above sea level. While Taiwan does not train for guerrilla war, this difficult terrain would be very suitable for it. And Taiwan lacks the physical infrastructure to accommodate hundreds of thousands of invaders and support their logistical needs, the bulk having to come from the mainland.

Hence, to mount an opposed PLA amphibious assault to seize and occupy Taiwan, China lacks, probably indefinitely, the military capability (power) and capacity (numbers).

A two year effort from 2017-2019 at the Naval War College called “Breaking the Mold” examined alternative means to implement the NDS. For the Indo-Pacific theater, a Mobile Maritime and Porcupine Defense for Taiwan was proposed in close concert with allies. That Japan is increasing defense spending is one indication of greater allied concern, as is the AUKUS program to provide nuclear submarines to Australia.

This Mobile Maritime strategy would confine the PLA to the first island chain running from Japan through Taiwan to Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. As in World War II in the Pacific against Japan, China would be blockaded and denied access to overseas access and resupply. It would be cut off from its Belt and Road outposts. And by Taiwan adopting a Porcupine Defense to make a PLA invasion too costly to consider, the United States would not have to spend as many resources in deterring and preparing for that contingency.

If an opposed-entry invasion of Taiwan is beyond China’s capacity, and it could be prevented by a Porcupine Defense of the island, what would be the consequences for U.S. strategy? 
If Taiwan is not the immediate or even long-term danger spot the U.S. believes it is, then is it time to ask if U.S. strategy towards China has become overly militarized.

From here. 

06 February 2023

U.S. Tanks Still Too Heavy

Just as in every other conflict in which the U.S. has considered deploying M1A1 Abrams tanks, the problem is that getting them where they need to be is challenging because they are so heavy. They are the heaviest tanks still in use in the entire world. 

Like most tracked vehicles it is also slow (under 45 mph on a road) and hard on roads, which means that most of its deployment is usually handled by rail. A C-17 transport plane can carry just one at a time, a C-5 (which is less suited to austere airstrips) can carry two at a time, and otherwise, one has to resort to moving it by ship and rail.
The new tanks are all more modern than the main battle tanks Kyiv has been using since the war began, including the Soviet-era T-72. Ukraine had previously received T-72s from several countries and in November, the White House committed to financing the refurbishing of 45 T-72B tanks with advanced capabilities via the Czech Republic.

But the T-72, which is the most widely used main battle tank in the world, weighs in at about 45 tons, as does the later model T-80. An M1A1 can weigh between 67 and nearly 74 tons, according to the U.S. Army.

"This affects what bridges a vehicle can safely use, which in turn affects where it be deployed and how easily it can maneuver on the battlefield," military and defense expert Michael Peck told Newsweek.

"Many Ukrainian bridges may not be suitable" for the far heavier Western main battle tanks now destined for Ukraine's front lines, he said.

Bridging equipment used by the Ukrainian military will also be designed with Soviet-era tanks in mind, not Abrams, Challengers or Leopards, he added.

Corresponding bridging equipment will be provided by Western allies, Ledwidge suggested, but Russian military intelligence may nonetheless benefit from Ukrainian logistical decisions that eliminate unsuitable bridges.

These considerations will "confine" the Ukrainian military, Ledwidge argued, but Ukraine's military commanders "will be very aware of this, and will find ways of deploying the tanks to take advantage of their capabilities."

Back in February 2020, the military outlet Breaking Defense wrote that while Western European infrastructure "was often reinforced during the Cold War to handle the weight of 60-plus-ton NATO tanks, Eastern Europe couldn't afford to build as robustly and, in any case, only had to accommodate much lighter Soviet tanks, like the 45-ton T-72."
From Newsweek in a story dated February 5, 2023.

Even the Army's new new "light" tank (38 tons) with a 105mm main gun, which is the product of its "Mobile Protected Firepower" (MPF) program, is almost as heavy the mainstay "main battle tanks" made by Russia.