07 April 2009

Colorado Redistricting 2012

The Dever Post has provided the data that suggest where Colorado's Congressional redistricting is headed in the wake of the 2010 census, to take effect in the 2012 election.

Colorado will keep its seven Congressional Districts, but the boundaries will change. Some districts (2, 4, and 6) have too many people. Others (1, 3, 5 and 7) have too few people. In round numbers:

1 Diana DeGette (D) (Denver plus) -65,000
2 Jared Polis (D) (Boulder and the mountains) +12,000
3 John Salazar (D) (Western Slope and Southern Colorado) -12,000
4 Betsy Markey (D) (Front Range and Northern I-25 corridor) +27,000
5 Doug Lambon (R) (Colorado Springs and mountains) -7000
6 Mike Coffman (R) (Southern Denver suburbs) +94,000
7 Ed Pelmutter (D) (Northern Denver suburbs) -51,000

CO-1 is the safest Democratic seat, CO-2 is a safe Democratic seat. CO-7 is a narrowly Democratic leaning seat with a solid incumbent. CO-3 and CO-4 are lean Republican seats held by moderate Democrats. CO-5 and CO-6 are safe Republican seats.

The redistricting process will probably be controlled by Democrats in the legislative sessions following the 2010 election when the districts will be drawn.

Conceptually, the idea is to stuff as many Republicans as possible into safe Republican districts (including growth prone Republican areas), to narrow the Democratic party edge in safe districts to the extent that this can be done and leave the district safe, and to put more Democrats into (or take Republicans out of) close districts. This should be done without forcing any incumbent Democrats out of their Congressional Districts.

Achieving this is non-trivial.


Anonymous said...

You say:

Some districts (2, 4, and 6) have too many people. Others (1, 3, 5 and 7) have too many people.

Well if every district has too many people, we must need more districts.

Andrew Oh-Willeke said...

Damn gremlins. I'll fix it.