02 August 2010

Primary Polling and Voting In Colorado

The polling is out and the voters are in the midst of casting ballots by mail. Ballots must be received a week from tomorrow (August 10).
Colorado Governor General Election (Survey USA):

John Hickenlooper 48% v. Scott McInnis 43%
John Hickenlooper 50% v. Dan Maes 41%

Colorado Governor (Survey USA):

Maes 43% v. McInnis 39% (Tancredo is running as the American Constitution Party candidate who is not on the primary ballot).

A poll of GOP primary voters who had heard of the McInnis scandal found that 56% originally supported McInnis while 28% originally supported someone else (the rest hadn't heard or weren't sure who they favored). McInnis support dropped to 35% of GOP primary voters who had heard as a result of the news, with 21% previously favoring McInnis and now favoring someone else.

Hickenlooper 44% v Tancredo 26% v. McInnis 25% (margin of error 3.1 points)
Hickenlooper 46% v Tancredo 24% v. Maes 24% (margin of error 3.2 points)

Democratic U.S. Senate Primary: Andrew Romanoff 48% v. Michael Bennet 45% (margin of error 4.3 points).

New Leadership Colorado says the Democratic primary rates is Bennet 44% v. Romanoff 40% (margin of error 3.6 point)

Republican U.S. Senate Primary: Ken Buck 50% v. Jane Norton 41% (margin of error 4.1%)

(Polling at The Fix shows Norton leading Buck 45-40, and McInnis leading Maes by 15 percentage points. I have serious doubts about the accuracy of the poll, particularly in the McInnis race.)

Colorado Senate General Election:

Buck v. Romanoff 44% v. 44%
Buck v. Bennet 43% v. 43%
Norton v. Romanoff 45% v. 40%
Norton v. Bennet 43% v. 46%

The latest Rasmussen Poll showed the following:

Buck 48% v. Bennet 42%
Buck 48% v. Romanoff 42%
Norton 48% v. Bennet 39%
Norton 44% v. Romanoff 40%

The percentages in the Rasmussen poll viewing candidates very favorable v. very unfavorable breaks down as follows:

Buck 14% v. 19%
Norton 15% v. 22%
Bennet 15% v. 35% (incumbent)
Romanoff 20% v. 21%

McInnis, Norton and Bennet are seen as the "party establishment" cases in their respective races, while Buck, Maes and Romanoff have been the insurgents in their respective races. The state party conventions gave all three insurgents top line status in the primary.

The GOP State Treasurer's race between J.J. Ament and W.R. Stapleton is a statistical dead head with Ament leading by a couple of percentage points in a poll that I saw this morning can't find a link for now. The winner of the low profile race will face Democrat Cary Kennedy in the fall.

I haven't seen any polling in the Republican primaries in CD-3 or CD-7 in Colorado to challenge the secure incumbents in those races, nor have I seen general election polling in CD-4, where the general election will be between incumbent Democrat Betsy Markey in a conservative District against Republican Cory Gardner, conflated by a couple of conservative third party candidates that could cost Gardner critical support if the race is close.

The U.S. Senate and CD-4 races are the ones to watch in November and could have national implications. The Republicans have very dim chances of winning the Governor's race this year, and no other incumbent members of Congress seem insecure in their re-election prospects. The incumbent Democrats who are Secretary of State and State Treasurer in Colorado seem likely to win re-election.

Incumbent Republican Attorney General John Suthers will face his biggest challenge yet against Democrat Stan Garnett in the wake of loopy amicus briefs challenging the constitutionality of health are reform and other causes despite his own personal statements that it is unprofessional to do so in prior cases, and his supervision of a case were a man was committing serious crimes while serving as an informant for the AG's office in a case.


Boulder as of July 30: 110,831 ballots sent, 7,406 undeliverable, 18,032 returned.

Denver as of July 30: 206,900 ballots sent, 12,672 undeliverable, 32,980 returned, 333 rejected.

Typically, in both counties, about a third are sent back right away, a third come in the middle, and a third come in at the end. Denver turnout reputedly has a little stronger surge in the last few days that the even thirds rule. As of the end of last week, probably half of all ballots were in, suggesting that the expected total turnout in Democratic party strongholds will be closer to 30%+ than the 24.5% of 2004.

"Forty-six of the state's 64 counties are holding all-mail elections. . . . Of Colorado's eight most populous counties, only Republican-tilting El Paso County (where Colorado Springs is located) will have precincts for next month's primary." Larimer County will have vote centers. Permanent mail in balloting blurs the distinction between mail in balloting and in person balloting, however.

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