15 December 2018

Prediction: The Ruling Striking Down The Entire ACA As Unconstitutional Will Not Be Upheld On Appeal

I predict that the ruling of a Texas federal judge striking down the entire ACA (i.e. Obamacare) as unconstitutional for reasons related to the individual mandate n the law, will not be upheld. At most, higher courts are likely to find that the provision is severable from the legislation as a whole.

If the Supreme Court does after a layer of intermediate appeals, uphold that conclusion, I predict that the wave of opposition to the Republicans in 2020 will be even stronger and that a court packing plan will abruptly end the conservative majority on the Supreme Court.

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