Showing posts with label Income taxes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Income taxes. Show all posts

05 August 2025

The Proposed Mega Sports Complex For Douglas County


Artist's rendering from Douglas County via the Denver Post

The Project

The controversial Zebulon Regional Sports Complex in Douglas County is set to break ground this fall. It is a $1.3 billion project planned for a site near Chatfield Reservoir in a brownfield development with "an old dynamite-making plant that operated for decades at the proposed Zebulon site" although it purportedly has been fully remediated. The state signed off on that conclusion in 2022.

The plans for the Zebulon Regional Sports Complex are huge.

On the drawing board are four baseball fields, three ice rinks and a pair of soccer fields. Eight to 10 basketball courts — which can be converted into 20 volleyball courts or 30 pickleball courts — are also in the mix. Add in a 400,000-square-foot, domed indoor sports facility that will house more fields for year-round play. . . .

And that’s just the first phase, which could break ground as soon as this fall on a 50-acre parcel just southeast of the master-planned Sterling Ranch community. Later phases could bring as many as eight additional sports fields, along with restaurants, shops and a hotel[.]

Does It Pencil?

I've worked with clients to help vet a similar proposals on a smaller scale, so I have so familiarity with the economics of these deals. For the life of me, I can't see how this could pencil as a "for profit" private sector venture at this scale in this location.

Sure, there is unmet demand in the area, which has had and continues to have large subdivisions rolled out over the last few decades (like 12,000 homes in Sterling Ranch which will house 35,000 people when completed that is only 20% built out), without sufficient government investment or HOA in community amenities. So, a much smaller private non-profit or public sector recreation center run by Sterling Ranch's metro district might work.

But, the demand just isn't there for something of this scale, and a similar but smaller complex in Centennial isn't thriving.
[A] citizen survey conducted last year by Douglas County ... revealed [that] a “mega-sports complex” was identified by 33% of respondents as the “least appealing option” of a list of potential amenities. The survey also showed that just 22% of respondents were dissatisfied with the number of youth sports facilities in the county.
Another smaller recreation center is already on the drawing board for Highland's Ranch which would be between the South Suburban Recreation Center twenty minutes to the east and the Zebulon complex.

The county investment is about $800K in engineering planning for infrastructure (realistically, a drop in the bucket) and a portion of the about $22 million a year in revenues for the the next 15 years from the county's 0.17% sales tax for its Parks, Trails, Historic Resources and Open Space Fund established in 1994.

But even this investment is controversial, in part, because the county leadership whose home rule county proposal epically crashed and burned in June, and which has a history of infighting and political posturing, isn't popular and doesn't have much public trust.

Moreover, as a "for profit" it probably isn't eligible for municipal bond financing with private activity bonds. This project would probably have, at best, a BBB credit rating implying roughly a 6.1% corporate bond interest rate, while a comparable municipal bond would have roughly a 3.6% interest rate, which is a $32.5 million a year difference for an investment of this size. Municipal bond eligibility, that it could receive as a non-profit, would be worth more than all of the sales tax revenue that could be diverted to the project.

There are a few other sports complexes with a similar (but slightly smaller than the proposed full build out) scale in the metro area, the South Suburban complex further east in Douglas County, one in Arvada, and one in Jefferson County (IIRC). But those are strictly government owned and funded, and the most similar South Suburban Parks and Recreation District facility further east, in Centennial, doesn't seem to be thriving.

Bottom Line Analysis

Philosophically, the fact that it is a brownfield development is a good thing, the fact that it provides amenities in a rapidly growing community with unmet needs is a good thing, and the fact that the risk that it will be an unprofitable money pit will fall mostly on wealthy, private sector, for profit, investors with only modest public subsidies is a good thing. It is also estimated to create 1,800 temporary jobs to build it, which is a good thing in what is mostly a bedroom community, where construction work for its huge sprawling suburban subdivisions is winding down due to factors like a limited supply of water for new taps.

But the fact that the proposal appears to be vastly bigger than the realistic demand for recreational facilities, the fact that the public is subsidizing a for profit company (even if it isn't a professional sports team), and the fact that it doesn't have much public support when the public will be providing significant sales tax funding support to the project, aren't good things.

An independent non-profit project, or metro district, or South Suburban Parks and Recreation District (with annexation of additional territory, if needed) sponsored project, that is less ambitious, with more phases to allow experience to determine if demand justifies something larger, would make more sense, in my opinion.

20 May 2025

Trump's Tax Proposals For Tips, Overtime, And Social Security Are Skimpy

Proposed tax breaks for tips, overtime pay, seniors, and car loan interest, are stingier than the rhetoric Republican politicians have made about them would imply.

The proposed tax breaks for tips, overtime, Social Security, and car loan interest are skimpier than the political rhetoric from Trump and the GOP would suggest. All would be from 2025 to 2028 only. All require the taxpayer to have a Social Security number (which is designed to impose a penalty tax on immigrants not authorized to work).

Tips and overtime would still be subject to payroll taxes and state and local income taxes. There would be an above the line tax deduction for them on federal income tax returns for tips and overtime. For overtime, it would only cover the 1/2 hour per hour worked of additional overtime pay rates, not the full 1 and 1/2 hours of overtime pay per hour worked. The tip and overtime deductions are not allowed for taxpayers with incomes over $160,000 in a "cliff rule" rather than with a phase out. 

The employer tip credit against certain payroll taxes is expanded from the food and beverage industry to the beauty services industry.

The Social Security tax break is actually unrelated to Social Security. It would be an up to $4,000 added to the standard deduction for those who use the additional standard deduction for older taxpayers (age 65+) per senior, or an itemized deduction of up to $4,000 for taxpayers of that age who itemize (which can't be refunded and carried over). It starts to phase out at $150,000 for married couples and $75,000 for other taxpayers.

The above the line deduction of up to $10,000 for car loan interest would apply only to cars whose assembly was completed in the U.S. on purchase money car loans for cars purchased in 2025 or later. It starts to phase out at $200,000 for married couples and $100,000 for other taxpayers.

The anticipated total revenue impact of these tax breaks is quite modest, because the limitations keep the budget cost of the tax cuts much lower than they would have been otherwise.

The Tax Foundation summarizes these tax breaks, and some others for individual taxpayers, as follows:


The standard deduction and child tax credit just tweak the usual moving parts of the tax code. The above the line deduction for charitable deductions is, needless to say, modest. The tax credit for contributions to scholarship granting organizations is an expensive back door national school voucher program. The MAGA accounts for newborns is a gimmicky and unnecessarily complicated way to provide an extra $1,000 on time tax credit for newborns.

Some of the harsh provisions of the 2017 tax bill, like the limitation on the state and local tax deduction and the near elimination of the casualty loss deduction, are extended.
No Tax On Tips 
Trump initially promised to end taxes on tips while campaigning in June in the swing state of Nevada. The hospitality industry is huge in Nevada, making up more than 20% of jobs in the state. The pledge didn't make it into the draft bill but did make it into the chairman's amendment, introduced on Monday.

As proposed, tip income would be temporarily deductible—only for tax years 2025 through 2028—for individuals who work in what are considered “traditionally and customarily tipped industries.” (According to the proposal, that would only include industries that accepted tips on or before December 31, 2024—Treasury is directed to make a list of those that qualify.)

Some media and social media reports I've seen say that this is not allowed for non-itemizers, but the bill language states that it is an "above the line deduction" available to non-itemizers. But many tipped workers only pay FICA payroll taxes and state income taxes on tips anyway (due to the large standard deduction and the fact that many tipped workers work part-time).

Self-employed persons, like Uber and Lyft drivers, would also qualify for the break as currently written.

Highly compensated employees (those who make over $160,000 in 2025) would be excluded. And, in a nod to concerns that all of the sudden, clever tax lawyers, business owners and others could wiggle their way into a no-tax-on-tips zone, Treasury is directed to craft regulations or other guidance to “prevent reclassification of income as qualified tips... to prevent abuse of the deduction.”

It's important to note that this is a federal income tax deduction, not an exclusion. That means that tips would still be reportable—and taxable at the state and local level. It also means that tips would remain subject to payroll taxes, including Social Security and Medicare, for employees.

Employers will get a break, however, via a tip credit. The deduction, which has been in place since 1993 for restaurants, is known as the 45B credit and allows for a rebate on the entire employer side of FICA taxes on tips. The instructions for claiming the 45B credit made clear it covers tips to employers involved in "providing, delivering, or serving food or beverages for consumption." The result is that tips provided elsewhere—like in salons—are subject to payroll taxes for both employees and employers, even though not a penny goes to the salon.

The most recent tax bill proposes to change that by extending the benefit to the beauty industry. Under the amendment, section 45B would be amended to include barbers and hair care, nail care, esthetics, and body and spa treatments. 
No Tax On Overtime

Trump also promised to eliminate taxes on overtime pay. That pledge was originally made in September 2024, during a speech in Tucson, Arizona. That break also didn't make it into the draft bill, but did make it into the chairman's amendment.

As proposed, workers who receive overtime would not have to pay taxes on that extra compensation. For purposes of the rule, overtime compensation is defined as the amount paid in excess of the employee’s regular rate—only the overtime compensation is part of the break. While taxpayers wouldn’t have to itemize to take advantage of the benefit, it would be temporary—only for tax years 2025 through 2028.

This tax break is also proposed as a deduction, not an exclusion. That means that overtime pay would still be reportable, and, as with tips, overtime pay would remain subject to payroll taxes, including Social Security and Medicare, for employees.

Quick Payroll Tax Primer

Confused about the employer versus employee sides of payroll taxes? For wage earners, Social Security and Medicare taxes are called FICA (Federal Insurance Contributions Act) and are taken out of your paycheck. Taxes on self-employment income are sometimes called SECA (Self-Employment Contributions Act) taxes since self-employed persons pay both the employee and employer contributions.

If you're employed, you pay Social Security tax at a rate of 6.2% as the employee, and your employer pays the same tax rate on your behalf. If you're self-employed, you are responsible for both parts.

Social Security taxes are subject to a wage cap. That means you pay Social Security taxes on your earnings until you hit the magic number. After that, your wages are no longer subject to Social Security taxes. For 2025, the magic number is $176,100. That means that whether you make $1,000 or $100,000, you will pay Social Security taxes on your income. But if you earn $176,101? You'll pay Social Security taxes on the first $176,100, but not on the extra dollar. And if you earn $1,176,100? Same result: you'll pay Social Security taxes on $176,100, but not on the extra million.

In contrast, all wages are subject to Medicare taxes. If you're employed, you pay Medicare tax of 1.45% as the employee, and your employer kicks in tax at the same rate. As before, if you're self-employed, you'll pay both portions, for a total tax rate of 2.9%.

High-income taxpayers are also subject to an additional Medicare tax of 0.9% tacked onto wages that exceed $200,000 for single filers—those thresholds are $125,000 for married taxpayers filing separately and $250,000 for married taxpayers filing jointly.

If you're a wage earner, your employer collects your Social Security and Medicare payments and remits both their portion and your share to the government. Self-employed persons pay the IRS directly. Retaining payroll taxes on tips and overtime may mean a bigger bite at tax time, but there is an upside: No matter who pays, these taxes are credited toward your retirement benefits. 
No Tax On Social Security

Last year, also on the campaign trail, Trump promised to exempt Social Security income from tax. The idea was popular, but likely because many people do not understand how Social Security income is taxed. The majority of people who get Social Security do not pay federal income tax on those benefits—according to the Social Security Administration, only about 48% of people pay federal income taxes on their benefits (though some studies suggest that the percentage is higher).

If your only source of income is your Social Security check, your benefits are generally not taxable. You may not even need to file a federal income tax return.

If you receive income from other sources, your benefits would not be taxed unless your combined income exceeds the base amount for your filing status, and then, the taxable amount is based on income. No one pays federal income tax on more than 85% of their Social Security benefits.

There is no language in the draft bill or the amendment that would further exempt Social Security from tax. However, the proposal does include a new—also temporary—deduction of $4,000 for the tax years 2025 through 2028.

The deduction would be available to taxpayers who itemize and those who claim the standard deduction. It would begin to phase out once income hits $150,000 for married taxpayers filing jointly and $75,000 for all other taxpayers (disappearing completely when modified adjusted income reaches $350,000 for married taxpayers and $175,000 for all other taxpayers).

To claim the deduction, you would have to have a Social Security number and, if married, your spouse would also have to have a Social Security number.

The deduction is not the same as a refundable credit. That means you will not receive a benefit if you have little to no taxable income—the case for most Social Security recipients. The deduction simply disappears. Realistically, the deduction won't help seniors with little to no other income sources outside of Social Security and will primarily benefit those with income in addition to Social Security. 
What Comes Next

You can see the original draft version of the bill before the markup here. The Smith amendment version is here.

The bill is still working its way through the House where Republicans hold a slim majority. Even if it's approved, the House bill must conform to the Senate version to be signed into law.

From Forbes.

The proposed car loan interest deduction (which Reagan eliminated in 1986) is explained, here, as follows (and may violate WTO rules):
Who could claim a $10,000 deduction on car-loan interest?

The bill also includes a deduction worth $10,000 on the interest on auto loans for vehicles, if that vehicle’s “final assembly” occurs in the United States. It’s a reflection of the Trump administration’s stated mission to nudge more manufacturing back to America — and then reward consumers for buying American-sourced products.

The deduction amount starts phasing out at the $100,000 mark for individuals and $200,000 for married couples filing jointly. It completely ends when modified adjusted gross income goes past $150,000 for individuals and $250,000 for couples.

Cars are expensive, though. People paid more than $47,000 on average in March for a new vehicle, according to Cox Automotive. So buyers who want to take advantage of the potential break would have to start planning a major purchase.

If the bill became law, the deduction on car-loan interest would be in place from tax years 2025 to 2028.
The exact bill language is below the fold (and could change before the final bill is passed, if it is passed).

13 January 2025

U.S. Income Tax Rates On Billionaires

Billionaires do pay taxes, but at a lower rate than typical working class and middle class families. This estimate, made in 2021, doesn't include the full effects of Trump's tax cuts for corporations and the rich which took effect in 2018.
In this analysis, we used publicly available data to estimate the average Federal individual income tax rate paid by America’s wealthiest 400 families, using a relatively comprehensive measure of their income that includes income from unsold stock. In our primary analysis, we estimated an average tax rate of 8.2 percent for the period 2010–2018. We also present sensitivity analyses that yield estimates in the 6–12 percent range.

31 December 2024

New Year's Eve Fears

I don't have high hopes for 2025.

* Trump.

* H5N1. Trump makes this a much, much more serious and more likely to be lethal risk. This is one mutation away from mass pandemic status and may be much more deadly than COVID-19.

* The war in Ukraine continues. It will be three years old in two months. Trump is eager to abandon Ukraine and please Russia. The rest of NATO will continue to support Ukraine. Russia's capacity to fight a conventional ground war has been dramatically degraded and its conventional naval forces have been revealed to be more vulnerable than widely believed beforehand. While Russia is incrementally gaining territory, longer range Ukrainian strikes and covert operations have put targets deep inside Russia's borders at risk. Russia continues to lose soldiers and hard to replace military equipment on a daily basis. Russia's economy is straining. It's secrets about how to conduct a war and its weaknesses have been broadcast to the world. Troops sent by North Korea to support it are getting slaughtered by the thousands.

* We will see what kind of regime emerges in Syria with the fall of Assad's regime.

* Israel's multi-front war with Iran and its proxies continues and it has indefinitely occupied some Syrian territory on its border in the wake of the fall of Assad's regime there.

* Gaza has been leveled.

Millions of Palestinians are still in Gaza because they have no way to go anywhere else. But this is unsustainable. It is basically impossible to make this a place that can sustain life for millions of people without mass deaths before this is done, and no one has the will and money to make that happen anyway.

At this point there are really only two possibilities: Either the number of deaths surges from a few tens of thousand to many hundreds of thousands or more, or many hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are exiled indefinitely from Gaza, a burden that no one has been willing to accept in the necessary numbers. Still, my assumption is that sooner or later, hundreds of Palestinians in Gaza will be relocated, willingly or unwillingly. The West Bank, Egypt, and Jordan would be the most obvious places to move them, but there are endless possibilities. Iran, which created this problem by encouraging the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas is the country that should take in the people of Gaza, but it probably won't.

* The civil war in Sudan continues to be a shit show. Nobody even has more than a rough estimate of how many have died or been injured in the conflict. Neither side is good, but the side that is backed by the perpetrators of the Darfur genocide is worse and backed by Arab monarchies. There are no signs of short term improvement in this catastrophic war.

* Because Trump took office, a massive global trade war is imminent. It will drive up prices in the U.S. at the expense of U.S. consumers, and destroy the economy. It will do almost nothing to help U.S. companies.

* Trump's promise of mass deportations promises to destroy the U.S. economy (especially agriculture, construction, and hospitality), to be a humanitarian nightmare, and to test once again the rule of law in the U.S.

* Trump's threats of conquest directed at our allies poses a risk of war.

* Trump's extreme weakness, stupidity, and hostility towards China could encourage more warlike action by China against Taiwan and the Philippines. 

* Trump's promise to pardon the thousand plus people convicted or facing charged from January 6 will lead to a surge in right-wing terrorism in the U.S. and undermine democracy.

* Maybe, if we are lucky, Trump won't live to complete his term. He isn't young, he isn't healthy, he isn't careful, all of which could lead to his death from natural causes, and he seems to have advancing dementia as well. Also, lots of people would like to assassinate him and there were two serious attempts to do so in 2024 already. If Trump died from natural causes before January 20, 2025, this could save the United States as a country.

* We can expect a surplus of serious natural disasters and extreme weather in 2025 that will probably surpass 2024, due to global warming.

* We are close to the internal combustion engine/electric vehicle tipping point. If it isn't in 2025, it will happen soon, even though Trump's policies may delay it in the U.S.

* While the left and the middle of the American political spectrum agrees that health care in the U.S. needs sweeping reforms, if anything, the Trump administration will only make things worse.

* The political right in the U.S. is increasingly opposed to education and libraries at all levels. We've seen a preview with book banning efforts, anti-intellectual Florida mandates for educators, and the effective ruin of New College in Florida already. An all out attack on academia and education, which is particularly intense in red states, is likely to get worse during the Trump administration.

* It isn't at all clear what the future looks like for reproductive rights. Dobbs was a catastrophe, but referenda and courts in many states have clawed back some of the losses. Other states, like Texas, for example, are absolutely horrible, with the quality of women's healthcare generally destroyed.

* MAGA's efforts to scapegoat transgender people continues and is gaining ground. Fleeing red states and conservative controlled institutions look like the only options for now.

* MAGA has rekindled racism in the U.S. and made it more strident. This seems likely to continue.

* Right wing Christianity's hate and sexism seem likely to continue the exodus from Christianity which came to a brief pause.

* Tax cuts are likely to undermine infrastructure in the U.S.

* If the right's battle against Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other public benefit programs is successful, we are going to see tens of millions of new poor people struggling for survival (and sometimes failing). The Trump recession will make it even worse.

28 August 2024

Who Gained From Corporate Tax Cuts?

Trump's 2017 tax bill dramatically reduced corporate income taxes. Who gained? 

Hint. Contrary to the claims of apologist economists, wasn't workers.

19 July 2024

One Economic Study's Take On The 2017 Tax Bill's Impact

Economic studies of the macroeconomic impact of tax cuts are more art than science and shouldn't be considered solidly reliable. But that doesn't mean that they should be ignored either.

Lower tax rates on business income does not have a significant dynamic effect on the economy. They just take money away from the government and give it, ultimately, to the owners of those businesses.

Changing incentives to better incentives can have a big impact (although incentives that change the timing of deductions for corporate expenditures for capital investments may only change the timing of corporate expenditures for capital investments, particularly if they are set to expire at a certain time).
We assess the business provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the biggest corporate tax cut in US history. We draw five lessons. 
First, corporate tax revenue fell by 40 percent due to the lower rate and more generous expensing. 
Second, firms with larger declines in their effective tax wedge increased investment relatively more. In aggregate, we suggest a loose consensus from the literature that total tangible corporate investment increased by 11 percent. 
Third, the business tax provisions increased economic growth and wages by less than advertised by the Act’s proponents, with long-run GDP higher by less than 1% and labor income by less than $1,000 per employee. 
Fourth, provisions that increase foreign investment by US-based multinationals also boost their domestic operations. 
Fifth, some of the expired and expiring provisions, such as accelerated depreciation, generate more investment per dollar of tax revenue than others.
Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Owen M. Zidar & Eric Zwick, "Lessons from the Biggest Business Tax Cut in US History",  NBER Working Paper 32672 (July 2024).

As noted here, in contrast, the tax cuts to pass-through firms underperformed. The lost corporate tax revenue was a decline from a baseline of corporate tax revenue of 2.9% of GDP in 2017 (i.e. they reduced federal tax collections by 1.16% of GDP per year, so far, for six years with more to come). There has been a long-run increase in GDP of 0.9% — which is a substantial sum in an economy of more than $27 trillion. But who really knows how it would have changed in the absence of the 2017 tax bill to any meaningful level of precision.

10 July 2024

A Comprehensive Entity Taxation Reform Proposal

The Corporate Double Taxation Problem

The U.S. has about 1.4 million entities taxed as C-corporations, as of 2020 (the most recent year for which full tax statistics are available) of which only 644,000 had tax taxable income and only about 433,000 had any net tax liability. Thus, almost a million C-corporations are small, closely held entities that pay bonuses to management annually calculated to eliminate any corporate level tax liability after any available corporate tax credits. But C-corporations that pay significant corporate income taxes in at least some years are economically extremely important as they include all publicly held corporations and many large, privately held businesses in the U.S. For example, in 2020, corporations has $33,400 billion of gross revenues and owned $124,500 billion of assets.

One of the widely acknowledged issues with U.S. federal income taxation of corporate earnings is the double taxation of C-corporation income. U.S. C-corporations pay tax once when income is earned at the corporate level at a rate that is currently a flat 21%. Then, when dividends are distributed to shareholders, shareholders are taxed on their dividend income but C-corporations don't receive a deduction for this payment.

This double taxation issue has been an important driver of the preference for pass through entity taxation in the U.S., and it creates a strong tax incentive for U.S. corporations to retain rather than distribute their income. And, since U.S. corporate income tax rates have generally been lower the the maximum U.S. individual income tax rate, it creates a tax preference for C-corporations that retain their income due to deferral of income taxation at the shareholder level. 

It also creates a strong tax incentive for C-corporations to finance their operations with debt rather than equity, which from a macroeconomic perspective causes C-corporations, mostly publicly held companies, to have excessively high debt to equity ratios, which makes the U.S. economy more vulnerable to business failures, and less robust, in recessions.

The favorable tax rates for corporate income, capital gains income, and "qualified dividends" in U.S. tax are also rough justice attempts to mitigate the double taxation of corporate income.

Options To End Corporate Double Taxation In the U.S.

There are various ways to end the double taxation of C-corporation income.

1. One could exempt dividend income from taxation, but that would distort how progressive marginal income tax rates for individuals work and would create a perception of unfairness. This would also continue to preference for debt over equity in corporate finance with the macroeconomic costs that come with it. And, it would be unfair to people who would be taxed on capital gains income from stock but not on dividend income from stock.

2. One could exempt corporate income from taxation. But this would create a massive tax incentive for corporations to retain income indefinitely. This would also massively favor equity investment over debt investments and would lead to a surge in preferred stock replacing corporate bonds.

3. One could replace federal corporation income taxes as a withholding tax on ultimate dividend payments for which shareholders receive a tax credit when receiving dividends. This is the most common approach in developed country economies that works quite well there, even though it retains some of the bias for debt financing over equity financing. But in the U.S., in light of federalism considerations, where there is no coordination in corporate taxation between federal corporate income taxes and state corporate incomes taxes, with some states not having these taxes at all, and other states having significant ones, this is difficult to implement gracefully.

4. One could have some sort of simplified pass-through taxation regime similar to what is done now with mutual funds, real estate investment trusts, and publicly traded partnerships. This would be close to neutral at the macroeconomic level between debt and equity financing. Pass-through taxation is predominant for U.S. closely held entities, many millions of which are taxed this way, mostly through limited liability companies, limited liability partnerships, limited liability limited partnerships, limited partnerships, and S-corporations. As of 2020, there were 4.9 million corporations taxed on a pass-through basis (primarily S-corporations, REITs and RICs), another 4.3 million entities taxed as partnerships, and 2.8 million single person limited liability companies taxed as sole proprietorships, for a total of 12 million entities using pass-through taxation regimes (a figure that ignores trusts and estates which have another form of pass-through taxation). But this is administratively very complex and it causes tax audits of the pass-through entities to impact far more people. It is also less fair, as the amount of taxable income allocated in this system to shareholders may not exactly match the amount distributed to them creating "phantom income" in some cases, and windfalls in others. The phantom income problem is particularly problematic in entities where substantial corporate profits are retained for future operations, rather than being distributed.

5. One could continue the imperfect status quo of mitigating the harm caused by corporate double taxation by taxing some combination of corporate income, capital gains from the sale of corporation shares, and dividends from corporation at reduced income tax rates, doing rough justice in terms of equity between total tax rates on shareholder received income from corporations and income from other sources, but presenting the problems discussed above.

6. One could allow a deduction for corporate taxable income for dividends paid. This is already done, in full and in part, depending upon ownership percentages, for dividends paid by C-corporations to other C-corporations that own a significant part of their stock. It has the virtues of being simple, being easy to administer, being easy to integrate between varied state and federal corporate tax systems, almost perfectly eliminating double taxation of corporate income, and ending the preference at the corporate level for equity financing over debt financing. This is the model I explore below, considering its viability in terms of tax rates, which I conclude are very viable. With the appropriate corporate tax rates, it also basically eliminated an incentive to retain earnings in order to defer income tax liabilities.

The Federal Tax Revenue Impacts Of A Corporate Dividends Paid Deduction

U.S. C-corporations paid $374 billion of corporate income taxes in 2020 at a flat corporate income tax rate of 21% from $2,700 billion of corporate net income, reduced by $193 billion of corporate tax credits.

U.S. taxpayers received $328 billion of ordinary dividends and $248 billion of qualified dividends from C-corporations in 2020, for a total of $576 billion.

So, U.S. C-corporations paid 21.3% of their taxable income to shareholder as dividends in 2020 (this isn't quite right, because it excludes dividends from C-corporation to other C-corporations, many of which are partially or fully income tax free, and includes dividend income from foreign corporations that are subject to U.S. corporate income taxes, but neither of those amounts are material).

If dividends paid were deductible from the income of C-corporations, total C-corporation income in 2020 would have been $2,124 billion. So, a revenue neutral transition from non-deductible corporate dividends to deductible corporate dividend payments would require a flat 26.7% corporate tax rate.

If C-corporations were taxed at a flat 41% corporate tax rate (slightly more than the 40.8% of federal taxes due at the highest marginal income tax rate plus the Obamacare tax on investment income), but were allowed to deduct corporate dividend payments and take all existing corporate tax credits, corporations would have paid $678 billion in federal income taxes in 2020 (an increase of $304 billion per year). This would be equivalent to a 32.3% flat corporate income tax rate without a deduction for dividends paid by corporations but with all existing corporate tax credits. A 41% federal corporate tax rate with a dividend paid deduction would be an 81% in federal corporate income tax revenue from current record low corporate tax rates (although this is moderately overstated because corporate tax credits would grow significantly with higher corporate tax rates, although it would still be at least a 31% increase).

The increased federal corporate income tax revenues in this scenario would be partially offset by reduced state corporate income tax revenues due to the reduction in the state corporate income tax base, unless states decided to disallow the dividend paid deduction for state corporate income tax purposes.

This would also make a variety of anti-evasion and double taxation mitigation provisions of the tax code obsolete. These would include the accumulated earnings tax, the personal holding company tax, the separate dividend paid deduction for dividends paid by C-corporations to certain other C-corporations, the special tax rates applicable to qualified dividends, and the special tax rates applicable to capital gains in C-corporation stock. 

These changes (except the special rate applicable to capital gains and qualified dividends) would have a negligible federal tax revenue impact. The end of the tax treatment of capital gains would increase federal tax revenues by $162 billion, and the end of favorable taxation of qualified dividend would increase federal tax revenues by about $84 billion.

In all, these reforms would increase federal income tax revenues by about $550 billion a year, which would be a roughly 11% increase in federal tax revenues, more than two-thirds of which would be paid mostly by those in the top 1% and more than three-quarters of which would be paid by those in the top 10% of income earners. 

This would reduce the federal budget deficit by more than 46%, which would also tend to reduce interest rates in the U.S. economy, including interest rates of home mortgages.

Bottom line: 

An increase of the federal income tax rate on corporate income from 21% to 41%, accompanied by a deduction for dividends paid, the end of favorable tax treatment for capital gains and qualified dividends, and the elimination of other tax code provisions whose purposes are made obsolete by this change, is a good idea.

This would be a viable and sensible tax reform that would be more fair, would be less prone to loopholes and tax planning reductions, would raise modestly more federal revenue in line with historic norms for revenue from corporate income taxes, and would make the U.S. economy more robust from a macroeconomic perspective. It would also reduce tax complexity, be easier to administer, make audits simpler for entities currently taxed on a pass-through basis, and be transaction driven. It would achieve great benefits without radical changes to the overall income tax system in a politically palatable manner.

Other Desirable Reforms In Entity Taxation

* Dividends paid by U.S. corporations to people not otherwise subject to U.S. income taxation should be subject to a final 41% foreign dividend payment tax collected by the entity paying the dividends. This is lost federal tax revenue that could be easily curtailed under the existing tax regime, and is especially important in a corporate dividends paid deduction regime.

* Pass-through taxation should be greatly curtailed. Entities with limited liability should be taxed as C-corporations. Limited partnerships with some unlimited liability general partners and some limited liability limited partners, should be taxed as a general partnership of the general partnership and a C-corporation consisting of the limited partners. S-corporation taxation should be abolished. This would greatly reduce the administrative complexity of the tax system, and would make it much simpler for small businesses to craft their organizational documents, to prepare and file tax returns, and to deal with tax audits. It also removes a huge exception to limited liability for entity income related tax liabilities. State laws causing transferees of limited liability company membership interests to lose their voting rights and right to information about the company and arguably the right to bring derivative actions, which were adopted to gain partnership taxation tax treatment (now obsolete for that purpose) should also be repealed. A fringe benefit of curtailing pass-through entity taxation is that it would greatly increase the privacy of entity owners, particularly in entities that did not distribute dividends to their owners.

* Investments in publicly held, marketable securities and commodities should be taxed annually on a mark-to-market basis, on that the theory that gains that could easily be realized shall be deemed to be realized for tax purposes. 

* The proceeds of loans secured by unmarketable or liquid capital assets, such as closely held entity shares, would be taxable as ordinary income when received, and deductible as an ordinary expense when repayments of principal were made by the borrower, to prevent circumvention of capital gains taxations that are de facto realized.

* Equity investments in unmarketable closely held entities should be deemed to be sold at fair market value at death and taxed at that time, rather than receiving a tax free step up in basis, unless a carryover basis election is filed by the executor of the decedent's estate disclosing the carryover basis and representing that the asset is eligible for the election.

This package of additional reforms would raise something on the order of $50 billion of federal tax revenues each year, which combined with the primary package, would increase federal tax revenues by about $600 billion a year, and would reduce the federal budget deficit by 50%.

A Quick And Dirty Fix To Regressivity In Federal Income Taxation

 


A friend of mine observed with respect to the meme above that:

That's comparing net worth to income. (Not that there's anything wrong with a net worth tax on billionaires). His net worth increased $87b in 2021, so $11b comes to 13%. While low, it's not obscenely so. Presumably it's due to unrealized capital gains. Taxing unrealized capital gains would be a bad idea in general, except for in the case of billionaires.

I responded:

I did catch that and let it slide because the basic point the Musk is undertaxed is still true. 
Taxing unrealized capital gains honestly isn't such a bad idea in the case of publicly held securities that can be converted to cash in the blink of an eye. Taxing unrealized capital gains in assets that are less liquid is much more problematic.

As you say, the amount he is being taxed on his income is actually about 13%. 
The top federal income tax rate on ordinary income is about 37% plus 1.45% employer and 1.45% employee Medicare taxes (or the equivalent for self-employment tax) or 3.8% for Obamacare on investment income. The top rate on ordinary income in California for people making more than $1 million a year is 14.4%. 
So, if capital gains and dividends were taxed as ordinary income and unrealized gains in publicly traded securities were taxed, and assuming that his income is almost all investment, he could be paying 55.2% instead of 13% of his income in taxes without even increasing top tax rates on ordinary income for the rich. 
This would be about $36 billion more in taxes collected each year. 
By comparison, that is nine times as much as the total revenues of the U.S. federal government from oil and gas leasing each year, and is about twice as much as total federal gift and estate tax revenues each year. 
Yet it would come from increased tax collections due to a couple of minor tweaks in the taxation of capital gains and dividends in publicly held companies, from a single taxpayer alone. 
Across the board, these small changes would generate immense increased tax revenues and increase equity and reduce income inequality.

To recap: 

What are these simple proposals that would profoundly increase tax collections from the rich, make our income tax system much less regressive, and reduce income inequality, without creating serious economic problems due to flawed tax incentives and laws?

1. Tax capital gains and dividends at the same tax rates as ordinary income. The tax expenditures associated with these preferential tax rates for capital gains and dividends has been calculated by the U.S. Treasury Department. These preferential tax rates cost U.S. taxpayers about $162 billion a year. About 68% of capital gains income is earned by the top 1% of taxpayers and 74% of capital gains income is earned by the top 10% of taxpayers according to the Congressional Research Service.

2. Tax unrealized capital gains in publicly held securities on a mark-to-market basis (see also here). The associated tax revenues associated with this change are harder to estimate. The step up in basis of capital gains at death and carryover basis capital gains taxation of gifts during life, combined cost taxpayers about $55 billion a year, so that's an order of magnitude estimate, although probably an underestimate.

Increasing tax collections on the unearned income of the wealthy from publicly traded securities would raise more than $200 billion a year, out of $5,000 billion of total federal tax revenues. This would be a 4% increase in total tax revenues.

02 July 2024

U.S. Taxes And Trends In Wealth Inequality In The U.S.

Wealth Inequality In the U.S. Over Time


This chart, based on the same household net worth data from the Federal Reserve, shows the top 0.1% separately (but is harder to eyeball):


In the 34 years from 1990 to 2024:

*  the share U.S. national net worth owned by the top 1% (currently net worths of more than about $5.8 million, with the current net worth of the top 0.1% consisting of net worths more than $30 million) increased by about 33% (the top 0.1% increased from an 8.6% share to a 13.5% share which is a 57% increase, while the rest of the top 1% increased from a 14.2% to a 16.8% share which is an 18% increase), 

* the share of the next 9% (currently net worths of more than about $1.94 million up to $5.8 million) fell by about 3% from a 37.8% share to a 36.6% share, 

* the share of the next 40% (currently net worths of more than about $193,000 to about $1.94 million) fell by about 15% from a 36.0% share to a 30.5% share, and 

* the bottom 50% (currently net worths of about $193,000 or less including negative net worths since debts exceed assets) fell by about 29% from a 3.5% share to a 2.5% share.

The bottom 50% peaked around 1992 at 4% of total net worth and hit bottom around 2011 at 0.4%  of total net worth in the wake of the financial crisis, and has recovered about half of its losses since it peak since then.

Of course, this is not a zero sum game (although the nominal dollar figures below exaggerate the extent to which everyone has improved their lot):


Adjusting for inflation (234%) and population growth (about 33%) from 1990 to 2024, the per capita net worth in each percentile group has changed in absolute terms as follows in that 34 year time period:

* Top 0.1% up 74%
* Next 0.9% up 67%
* Next 9% up 66%
* Next 40% up 38%
* Bottom 50% up 13%

Changing tax laws were a major driver of these trends

A significant factor in the increased share of wealth held by the top 1% over the last 30 years has been increasingly smaller tax burdens on them.

The strong preference for unearned income and gifts and inheritances over earned income in the tax code makes the effective tax rates of the wealthiest, especially the 1% lower in most cases, than the effective tax rates of the upper middle class and middle class.

The charts below break it down the tax rates on different kinds of incomes, and on gifts and inheritances, over time.


The chart above neglects several additional key tax preferences for certain kinds of income, mostly unearned: 

(1) the unlimited exclusion of income from municipal bonds, 

(2) the exclusion of income from increased cash value in whole life insurance policies, 

(3) the tax free status of accrued but not realized capital gains in assets owned at death, 

(4) tax deferral of capital gains from the sale of investment real estate that are rolled over into new investment real estate investments, 

(5) an exclusion of $250,000 of capital gain on the sale of a principal residence held for at least two years for a single person and $500,000 for married couple, 

(6) deferred or tax free income from various retirement and education investments (most Social Security benefits, defined benefit pensions, 401(k)s, IRAs, Roth IRAs, 529 plans, etc.), 

(7) preferential income tax treatment for stock options and certain other kinds of equity based compensation, and 

(8) the 20% of pass through entity income deduction (I.R.C. § 199A) in tax years 2018-2025.

Tax breaks from international taxation, too complex to review in this post, have also materially help people on the top 0.1% of net worth.

In addition to the federal income tax, wage and salary income is subject to a 7.65% employee and 7.65% employer FICA tax, for a combined 15.3% (and earned self-employment income is subject to a parallel self-employment tax) up to $168,600 in 2024 (the cap is indexed). Above this wage base, there is a Medicare tax of 1.45% employee and 1.45% employer for a combined 2.9% with a parallel self-employment tax.

There is also a federal 3.8% net investment income tax on investments, including the sale of stocks and bonds, for those who earn more than $200,000 if single or $250,000 for married couples (as of 2021), to finance the Affordable Care Act.

Income from marijuana dispensaries is taxed at a punitively high rate due to Internal Revenue Code Section 280E.

Gift and estate tax exclusions and rates over time:

1987-1996

$600,000

37%

55%

$10,000

1997

$600,000

37%

60%[1]

$10,000

1998

$625,000

37%

60%[1]

$10,000

1999

$650,000

37%

60%[1]

$10,000

2000-2001

$675,000

37%

60%[1]

$10,000

2002

$1,000,000

41%

50%

$11,000

2003

$1,000,000

41%

49%

$11,000

2004

$1,500,000

45%

48%

$11,000

2005

$1,500,000

45%

47%

$11,000

2006

$2,000,000

46%

46%

$12,000

2007-2008

$2,000,000

45%

45%

$12,000

2009

$3,500,000

45%

45%

$13,000

2010[2]-2011

$5,000,000

35%

35%

$13,000

2012

$5,120,000

35%

35%

$13,000

2013

$5,250,000

40%

40%

$14,000

2014

$5,340,000

40%

40%

$14,000

2015

$5,430,000

40%

40%

$14,000

2016

$5,450,000

40%

40%

$14,000

2017

$5,490,000

40%

40%

$14,000

2018

$11,180,000 [3]

40%

40%

$15,000

2019

$11,400,000

40%

40%

$15,000

2020

$11,580,000

40%

40%

$15,000

2021

$11,700,000

40%

40%

$15,000

2022

$12,060,000

40%

40%

$16,000

2023

$12,920,000 [4]

40%

40%

$17,000 [4]

2024

$13,610,000

40%

40%

$18,000


Notes to table:

[1] The 60% maximum tax rate actually represents an additional 5% that was added to estates of more than $10,000,000 from the years 1997 to 2001 in order to eliminate the benefit of the progressive tax table. The additional 5% ended at a taxable estate of $17,184,000, which is when the average tax rate reached 55%. So the top marginal tax rate during those years was 60%, but the top average tax rate was 55%.

[2] The federal estate tax in 2010 was actually optional, and estates could elect to pay no estate tax and instead accept a limit on the increase in the income tax basis on assets included in the estate.

[3] The basic exclusion amount was doubled in 2018, but that doubling ends after 2025.


Unused gift and estate tax exclusion became inheritable by a surviving spouse starting with decedents dying in the year 2010.

Working Class and Middle Class Taxpayers

The working class and the middle class pay no meaningful federal income tax (and sometimes even receives a net credit) and no gift and estate tax. The poor and the working class pay little federal income tax mostly due to the standard deduction (and previously a per person exclusion from income), the per child tax credit, the earned income tax credit, the exclusion of health insurance from income, the Affordable Care Act subsidy for certain non-employer health insurance policies, higher education tax benefits, graduated tax rates that tax low incomes more lightly, and the lifetime exclusion from gift and estate taxes. Deductions for student loan interest, self-employment health insurance, mortgage interest and state and local taxes also reduce the tax burden for many middle class families.

They do pay FICA or self-employment taxes, however, which greatly offsets the benefit of paying little or no federal income taxes (although they do receive Social Security benefits based in part on the FICA taxes they paid, and received Medicare health care benefits at age sixty-five, in exchange). 

They also pay the "poor man's estate tax", in the form of the estate recovery system for Medicaid nursing home benefits which requires means tested Medicaid nursing home benefits to be repaid with a beneficiary's probate estate.

Federal Excise Taxes And Revenue Sources

In addition to the federal taxes shown above, there are a variety of federal excise and duties taxes on gasoline and other vehicle fuels, on commercial air travel, on alcohol, on tobacco products, on firearms and ammunition, on phone service, and on good imported from less favored nations. Collectively, these taxes have a mostly regressive impact, meaning that the take a larger share of low income people's money than they do higher income people.

The federal government also earns modest amounts of money from miscellaneous sources such as making coins and currency, entering into grazing leases on federal lands, leasing federal mineral rights, and imposing fines and penalties.

International Comparisons

In many developed countries, value added taxes (VAT) and wealth taxes are important, and are largely absent in the U.S. (apart from real property and car taxes) and in many small countries especially islands, customs duties are a major source of government revenue, while they are largely insignificant in the big picture in the U.S. 

The U.S. also does not follow the "no taxation and no representation" model of oil rich monarchies where government services are financed with oil wealth owned personally by the monarch or the royal family, and likewise, has not nationalized oil and gas extraction to the extent of many, mostly developing, countries.

Overall, total tax collections in the U.S. as a share of GDP are low compared to other developed countries, which is one of several important reasons that the U.S. has more wealth inequality than many other developed countries.


Winners and Losers In Federal Taxes And Spending

Generally speaking, "blue states" (i.e. those that vote for Democrats in Presidential elections) pay more in taxes than they receive in federal spending, while "red states" (i.e. those that vote for Republicans in Presidential elections) are subsidized by blue states and pay less in taxes than they receive in federal spending, although this isn't a strict relationship.

This is mostly because "red states" tend to have lower incomes and GDPs than "blue states". 


At the county level, Biden voting counties had 71% of the national GDP while Trump voting counties had 29% of the national GDP, despite having roughly similar populations. It isn't clear how much of this relationship is because income drives political preferences, and how much of this relationship is because partisan differences in policy drive income differences.

State and Local Taxes

In addition to the federal government, various taxes are collected by state and local governments. The most significant are income taxes (often, but not always based on federal income taxes), business income taxes, taxes on retail sales of certain goods and some select services, property taxes on the assessed values of real property, gas taxes, alcohol taxes, tobacco taxes, and motor vehicle registration fees. Some state and local governments tax the value of real estate transfers. There are also a variety of user's fees. Taxes on mineral extraction and gambling and marijuana are significant revenue sources for some state and local governments.

Alaska pays a fixed some of money to every resident annually, currently $1,580 per resident, from its "permanent fund" of oil and gas tax revenues.

The relative importance of different kinds of state and local taxes varies greatly from state to state.

On balance, most state and local tax systems are regressive, meaning that lower income people are taxed at a higher percentage of their incomes than higher income people. 

Generally speaking, "blue states" have higher overall tax rates and more progressive tax systems, while "red states" have lower overall tax rates and more regressive tax systems, although the correlation isn't perfect.


The combined average state and local tax burden from all state and local taxes combined (from here) is shown below (the U.S. average combined state and local tax burden is 10.56%):


State Level Income Inequality

This only partially drives income inequalities between states, however (states with strong economic contributions very high income industries like technology, finance, and insurance also tend to have great income inequality):