Showing posts with label sports. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sports. Show all posts

14 May 2026

Mental Energy Levels

Some activities take more mental energy, alertness, and attention than others. From low to high:

* Sleeping

* Staring blankly while sitting or lounging

* Sipping a drink alcoholic or otherwise

* Cuddling

* Taking a bath

* Listening to music

* Driving in ordinary conditions

* Interacting with a pet

* Watching spectator sports

* Looking at art in a gallery or museum

* Browsing statistics (e.g. in an almanac or government publication) or maps

* Washing dishes or dealing with trash/recycling/compost

* Facebook

* Grocery shopping

* Making journal entries

* Reading the newspaper or its online equivalent

* Scanning academic journal abstracts

* Researching a non-legal topic

* Watching TV or a streaming video

* Watching a full length movie or opera or ballet or play

* Choosing presents for particular occasions

* Applying math or physics rules that I already know

* Gardening or landscaping work

* Making a music playlist

* Cooking

* Reading fiction for pleasure

* World building in anticipation of writing fiction

* Leading a meeting

* Blogging 

* Rehearing for a music or drama performance

* Participating in most team sports at my mediocre level

* Typical legal work outside of a trial or hearing

* Teaching a continuing education class or college class

* Tutoring

* Reading non-fiction (or a fiction classic for a class)

* Learning how to use a new appliance

* Figuring out why a computer or app thing isn't working properly, or learning a new computer or phone skill

* Social chit chat or being at a party

* Filing papers (i.e. into categories and files)

* Writing fiction

* Planning an event or trip

* The design phase of a remodeling or landscaping project

* Hiking or going on a walk in an unfamiliar place

* Handling the return of a purchased product

* Learning new math or physics topics independently

* Driving in extreme conditions (e.g. an intense snowstorm)

* Acting as a lawyer in a trial or hearing or high pressure emergency situation

* Doing business management/accounting work

* Ice skating

* Trying to learn a foreign language

05 November 2025

Musings On NYC And More

My wife and son ran the NYC marathon together (they were just one minute short of getting a mention in the New York Times for it).

It wasn't my first trip to NYC, but each visit stirs up no impressions.

It is amazing how much a tiny hotel room (there was barely room to walk - the bed was almost wall to wall), a suitcase full of clothes, and a credit card with enough money on it to buy food and subway fares makes. We had a kitchenette, so we could have lived there, and led a reasonably dignified life.

While some things in NYC are modern and cutting edge, it is also to a significant extent, an enclave of the past. The engineering behind the subway train operations is ancient, even though the fare system is very modern. The operations of the NYSE are at their core, ancient. Its residential co-ops are historical relicts from the pre-condo era. Its trash collection systems lack alleys or even dumpsters. Its street system doesn't handle car and truck travel well at all, although its bike lanes are modern and work rather well. It has been highly resistant to big grocery store chains found everywhere else. Its rent control system is its own thing found in only a couple of other places in the nation. It is home to the UN which, alas, isn't a modern, functional institution. It tries, but isn't very disability friendly.

We are in the longest government shutdown of all time in U.S. history. The second longest was also under Trump. There is still no end in sight.

The Dodgers won the World Series.

Two words that would seem useful:

* Dila = daughter-in-law (adjacent)

* Sila = son-in-law (adjacent)

These word would cover both engaged people and people who are in a serious long term relationship with a son or daughter to the point where they have met the family and might very well be more or less permanent family members. The need for a compact word to describe someone who has this relationship to you is real.

I haven't seen a full set of 2025 election results, but generally, Democrats did well.

02 September 2025

Selected Things That I Am The Family Expert On

This post is an incomplete list of things that I know the most about or am best at, in a group one person from a group comprised of myself, my children and my wife.

1. Driving in bad weather.
2. Automotive maintenance and repair.
3. Chess, other board games, role playing games, and war games.
4. Gambling.
5. Cats.
6. Baseball.
7. Firearms and using firearms.
8. Using weapons in hand to hand combat.
9. Carpentry, plumbing, electrical work, masonry, HVAC, cement work, architecture, and civil engineering.
10. Real estate.
11. Finance and investing.
12. Insurance.
13. Economics.
14. Psychology and psychiatry and neuroscience.
15. Psychoactive substances including marijuana.
16. Sailing and operating motor boats.
17. Commercial farming.
18. Mathematics.
19. Law.
20. Political science and politics.
21. History.
22. Art history.
23. Music history and opera.
24. Infectious diseases and epidemiology.
25. Baking bread.
26. Religion.
27. Physics.
28. Anthropology and linguistics.
29. All things Japanese.
30. The French language.
31. Latin.
32. Genealogy.
33. Geology.
34. Energy and transportation technology.
35. Taxes.
36. Geography.
37. Academia.
38. Science fiction, fantasy, and other speculative fiction.
39. The supernatural.
40. Maori place names and culture.
41. Criminology.
42. Bicycles.
43. Genetics.
44. Accounting.
45. New music.
46. Southern culture.
47. Military affairs.
48. Urban planning.
49. Denver geography.
50. Flowers.
51. Business management.

Selected Things I Am Not The Family Expert On

This post is an incomplete list of things that at least one person from a group comprised of myself, my children and my wife, know more about than I do, or are better at than I am.

1. Football.
2. Lacrosse.
3. Golf.
4. Playing an instrument.
5. Anatomy and physiology.
6. The details of biochemical processes.
7. Dogs.
8. Horses.
9. Fashion.
10. Computer programming.
11. The Spanish language.
12. The Korean language.
13. Managing video files on a computer.
14. TV and movie trivia.
15. Song lyrics from memory.
16. Who wrote/performed popular songs.
17. Mountain climbing.
18. When and where the stuff in our house was purchased or otherwise acquired.
19. Classics of English literature.
20. How to optimize job applications that will be screened by artificial intelligence.
21. Driving a stick shift.
22. New York City geography.
23. Traveling abroad.
24. Drawing and painting.
25. Ice skating.
26. Skiing.
27. Distance running.
28. Weight lifting.
29. Dancing.
30. Yoga.
31. Gardening.
32. Dealing with customer service hotlines.
33. Using AI.
34. Wedding planning.
35. Sports medicine.
36. Writing legibly by hand.
37. Online dating.
38. Karaoke.
39. Video games.
40. Cryptocurrency.
41. Ride sharing.
42. AirBnB and similar services.
43. Household cleaning and laundry and fabric care.
44. Makeup and skin care.
45. Towel and fitted sheet folding.
46. Selling wine and liquor.
47. Post-modernism.
48. Using airline miles.
49. Using public transportation.
50. Locating contractors for home renovations and repairs.
51. Marital arts without weapons.

25 August 2025

Who Gets Into Ivy League Colleges?

We use anonymized admissions data from several colleges linked to income tax records and SAT and ACT test scores to study the determinants and causal effects of attending Ivy-Plus colleges (Ivy League, Stanford, MIT, Duke, and Chicago). 
Children from families in the top 1% are more than twice as likely to attend an Ivy-Plus college as those from middle-class families with comparable SAT/ACT scores. Two-thirds of this gap is due to higher admissions rates for students with comparable test scores from high-income families; the remaining third is due to differences in rates of application and matriculation. 
In contrast, children from high-income families have no admissions advantage at flagship public colleges. The high-income admissions advantage at Ivy-Plus colleges is driven by three factors: (1) preferences for children of alumni, (2) weight placed on non-academic credentials, and (3) athletic recruitment. 
Using a new research design that isolates idiosyncratic variation in admissions decisions for waitlisted applicants, we show that attending an Ivy-Plus college instead of the average flagship public college increases students’ chances of reaching the top 1% of the earnings distribution by 50%, nearly doubles their chances of attending an elite graduate school, and almost triples their chances of working at a prestigious firm. 
The three factors that give children from high-income families an admissions advantage are uncorrelated or negatively correlated with post-college outcomes, whereas academic credentials such as SAT/ACT scores are highly predictive of post-college success.
That is from a new paper by Raj Chetty, David J. Deming, and John N. Friedman. One immediate conclusion is that standardized test scores help lower-income groups get into the best schools, compared to the alternatives.

From Tyler Cohen at Marginal Revolution. 

It is well known and consistent with experience that graduating from an Ivy-Plus college is a huge advantage over graduating from a flagship public university.

The fact that Ivy-Plus colleges favor legacies is well known. The fact that admissions favoritism for athletes disproportionately favors students from affluent families (often in obscure sports that students from less affluent families don't even encounter) is much less widely known. It is unsurprising, however, that neither of these factors (controlling for academics and Ivy-Plus admission) influence post-graduation outcomes much (or even hurt). 

It is also no surprise that non-academic credential are important for Ivy-Plus admission or that affluence is a plus in this department. But it is somewhat surprising that those non-academic credentials don't influence post-graduation outcomes much (or even hurt).

A few points that the abstract buries, however, are that SAT/ACT scores are moderately strongly correlated with socio-economic class, that SAT/ACT scores are strongly correlated with IQ (and are not ethnically biased), and that test preparation influences SAT/ACT score outcomes much less than most people (even people very familiar with the college application process) usually believe. See also here. As an aside:

ACT English + ACT Math are actually more predictive of college success and retention than the ACT Composite or the other two parts of the ACT that are more content based. In relative terms, here is how predictive each subsection of the ACT is:

Math (significant at p=0.01 level) 26
English (significant at p=0.01 level) 16
Reading (significant at p=0.05 level) 3
Science (not statistically significant) -1.

Race and ethnicity also influence Ivy-Plus admissions, although in ways rather more complicated than commonly assumed, and in a manner that is rapidly in flux at the moment in light of a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision.

None of this is terribly surprising, but it is a nice, compact analysis with a good methodology. It largely corroborates a similar study about two years ago. As a summary of that study explained:

About 7 percent of the country’s very top students come from the top 1 percent of the income distribution. These students tend to have scored at least 1500 on the SAT (or 35 on the ACT), received top marks on Advanced Placement tests, earned almost all A’s in their high school classes, and often excelled in science fairs or other competitions. . . . 
Perhaps the most surprising pattern involves so-called legacy students, those who attend the same college that their parents did. At the elite colleges that the researchers studied, legacy students had stronger academic qualifications on average than nonlegacy students. Similarly, graduates of private high schools had stronger academic records on average than graduates of public high schools or Catholic schools. 
* . . . About half of legacy students at these colleges would not be there without the admissions boost they receive.  
* A similar advantage applies to the graduates of private schools (not including religious schools). Schools like Andover, Brentwood and Dalton do such a good job of selling their students — through teacher recommendations, essay editing and other help — that colleges admit them more often than academic merit would dictate. Many college admissions officers think they can see through this polish, but they don’t.  
* Recruited athletes are admitted with much lower academic standards — and are disproportionately affluent. It’s not just true of the obvious teams, like golf, squash, fencing and sailing. In today’s era of expensive youth sports, most teams skew wealthy. If colleges changed their approach to sports, they could admit more middle-class and poor athletes (or nonathletes) with stronger academic credentials.
Most of these colleges do not admit only the hyper-qualified affluent students; they also admit many other high-income students. As I mentioned above, 7 percent of the country’s very best high school students come from the top 1 percent of the income distribution. But what proportion of students at elite colleges comes from the top 1 percent of the income distribution? Much more: 16 percent.

I didn't emphasize it when I wrote about this two years ago, but it also is worth observing that 84% of Ivy-Plus college students are not from families in the top 1 percent of the income distribution, although very few of them are truly poor (and if they are poor, they tend to have a very high socio-economic class and social capital despite their personal lack of affluence). This is less than the 93% it would be in a purely meritocratic system, but it is still the lion's share of these students.

Indeed, the colleges with the most affluent student bodies are not the Ivy-Plus schools, but slightly less selective elite liberal arts colleges, like Colby College in Maine and Colorado College in Colorado, that have relatively weak grant based financial aid resources.

05 August 2025

The Proposed Mega Sports Complex For Douglas County


Artist's rendering from Douglas County via the Denver Post

The Project

The controversial Zebulon Regional Sports Complex in Douglas County is set to break ground this fall. It is a $1.3 billion project planned for a site near Chatfield Reservoir in a brownfield development with "an old dynamite-making plant that operated for decades at the proposed Zebulon site" although it purportedly has been fully remediated. The state signed off on that conclusion in 2022.

The plans for the Zebulon Regional Sports Complex are huge.

On the drawing board are four baseball fields, three ice rinks and a pair of soccer fields. Eight to 10 basketball courts — which can be converted into 20 volleyball courts or 30 pickleball courts — are also in the mix. Add in a 400,000-square-foot, domed indoor sports facility that will house more fields for year-round play. . . .

And that’s just the first phase, which could break ground as soon as this fall on a 50-acre parcel just southeast of the master-planned Sterling Ranch community. Later phases could bring as many as eight additional sports fields, along with restaurants, shops and a hotel[.]

Does It Pencil?

I've worked with clients to help vet a similar proposals on a smaller scale, so I have so familiarity with the economics of these deals. For the life of me, I can't see how this could pencil as a "for profit" private sector venture at this scale in this location.

Sure, there is unmet demand in the area, which has had and continues to have large subdivisions rolled out over the last few decades (like 12,000 homes in Sterling Ranch which will house 35,000 people when completed that is only 20% built out), without sufficient government investment or HOA in community amenities. So, a much smaller private non-profit or public sector recreation center run by Sterling Ranch's metro district might work.

But, the demand just isn't there for something of this scale, and a similar but smaller complex in Centennial isn't thriving.
[A] citizen survey conducted last year by Douglas County ... revealed [that] a “mega-sports complex” was identified by 33% of respondents as the “least appealing option” of a list of potential amenities. The survey also showed that just 22% of respondents were dissatisfied with the number of youth sports facilities in the county.
Another smaller recreation center is already on the drawing board for Highland's Ranch which would be between the South Suburban Recreation Center twenty minutes to the east and the Zebulon complex.

The county investment is about $800K in engineering planning for infrastructure (realistically, a drop in the bucket) and a portion of the about $22 million a year in revenues for the the next 15 years from the county's 0.17% sales tax for its Parks, Trails, Historic Resources and Open Space Fund established in 1994.

But even this investment is controversial, in part, because the county leadership whose home rule county proposal epically crashed and burned in June, and which has a history of infighting and political posturing, isn't popular and doesn't have much public trust.

Moreover, as a "for profit" it probably isn't eligible for municipal bond financing with private activity bonds. This project would probably have, at best, a BBB credit rating implying roughly a 6.1% corporate bond interest rate, while a comparable municipal bond would have roughly a 3.6% interest rate, which is a $32.5 million a year difference for an investment of this size. Municipal bond eligibility, that it could receive as a non-profit, would be worth more than all of the sales tax revenue that could be diverted to the project.

There are a few other sports complexes with a similar (but slightly smaller than the proposed full build out) scale in the metro area, the South Suburban complex further east in Douglas County, one in Arvada, and one in Jefferson County (IIRC). But those are strictly government owned and funded, and the most similar South Suburban Parks and Recreation District facility further east, in Centennial, doesn't seem to be thriving.

Bottom Line Analysis

Philosophically, the fact that it is a brownfield development is a good thing, the fact that it provides amenities in a rapidly growing community with unmet needs is a good thing, and the fact that the risk that it will be an unprofitable money pit will fall mostly on wealthy, private sector, for profit, investors with only modest public subsidies is a good thing. It is also estimated to create 1,800 temporary jobs to build it, which is a good thing in what is mostly a bedroom community, where construction work for its huge sprawling suburban subdivisions is winding down due to factors like a limited supply of water for new taps.

But the fact that the proposal appears to be vastly bigger than the realistic demand for recreational facilities, the fact that the public is subsidizing a for profit company (even if it isn't a professional sports team), and the fact that it doesn't have much public support when the public will be providing significant sales tax funding support to the project, aren't good things.

An independent non-profit project, or metro district, or South Suburban Parks and Recreation District (with annexation of additional territory, if needed) sponsored project, that is less ambitious, with more phases to allow experience to determine if demand justifies something larger, would make more sense, in my opinion.

18 March 2024

That Time When Golf Was A Crime

James IV King of Scotland Born March 17, 1473 banned what sport activity in Scotland?

In 1491, James IV reaffirmed a ban on golf that had started in 1457 when James II banned golf and football to preserve the skills of archery. The ban was lifted in 1502 with the signing of the Treaty of Perpetual Peace between England and Scotland. James soon became a golfer himself and made the first recorded purchase of golf equipment, a set of golf clubs from a bow-maker in Perth [not the one in Australia which didn't exist yet].

13 June 2023

Good Job Denver Nuggets!

The NBA pro basketball team, the Denver Nuggets, my hometown team, is the best pro basketball team in the U.S. after winning the NBA finals yesterday. Good for them, I guess. This is the first time it has made it to the finals at all in the history of the franchise.

In 2022, our pro hockey team, the Colorado Avalanche won the Stanley Cup (also in finals against a Florida team). It also won two previous Stanley Cups.

Our football team, the Denver Broncos, has won the Super Bowl three times.

Our baseball team, the Colorado Rockies, made it to the World Series once, but has never won.

Our pro-soccer team, the Colorado Rapids, and our pro-lacrosse team, the Colorado Mammoth, have, as far as I know, never made it to a national final.

07 September 2022

Quote Of The Day

Three Rings for the Elven-kings under the sky,
Seven for the Dwarf-lords in their halls of stone,
Nine for Mortal Men, doomed to die,
Six for J-Lo.

From here. 

21 April 2020

Golf

Golf courses will reopen in Denver tomorrow. As far as coronavirus risk goes, done in a responsible way, it can be pretty low risk. 

My inlaws are about as good as you get as amateur golfers. My daughter was captain of the golf team and even got a golf scholarship to college.

This said, I don't get the value of the sport. Personally, I would not be troubled in the least if every single golf course in the state were bulldozed and converted to open space, campgrounds, parks, and even housing. 

Golf courses are water hogs in the arid west.

Golf is also the physical personification of inequality. They take large tracts of land for the benefit of a few. It takes an immense amounts of leisure time to play eighteen holes, or even nine, which few people have to spare. And, it isn't a cheap sport in terms of money. The equipment isn't super cheap. The fee to play on a public course isn't trivial. And many people join country clubs with membership dues of upwards of $10,000 a year and selective admissions just to play.

As I understand it, the public golf courses in Denver pay for themselves, but that ignores the property tax free opportunity costs associated with the idle land. I don't know if country clubs, which are generally organized as non-profits, pay property taxes on their golf courses or not.

I suppose it is a "lifetime" sport that one can engage in for your whole life, not that there aren't other alternatives. I'm sure that my class biases and values are showing. But, in my humble opinion, a world without golf would be a better world. 

30 December 2018

The Decline of Hunting

A Denver Post article reports that hunting is down by about a third from the early 1980s. I quote rather liberally from the story, since it is simply regurgitating a public domain governmental report for the most part, with little analysis or elaboration. The population of Colorado is about 5,607,000, so there is about one hunting license issued to a resident per 13.6 residents of the state, mostly for elk and deer. This is still, however, above the national average of one hunter per 28.3 people. The decline in hunting rates is one of the main drivers in the declining percentage of the U.S. population that owns guns.
The nation had 11.5 million hunters in 2016, down 2.2 million from 2011 and down about 6 million since the early 1980s, reports the National Survey of Hunting, Fishing, and Wildlife-Associated Recreation. 
Follow the numbers, based on [Colorado Parks and Wildlife]’s latest data, from the 2016-17 fiscal year: 
— 501,168: Hunting tags sold, not counting 85,071 “combination” licenses for small-game hunters and anglers. 
— 1.1 million: Hunters and anglers in the state counted by CPW. Fishing license sales have increased over the past 25 years, but hunting has declined steadily even as Colorado’s population booms. “Substantial” rises in fishing licenses have offset revenue losses from hunting, the agency says. 
— $70 million: Revenue CPW collects from license sales. That was about $45 million in 1990. But adjusting for inflation, revenue is down from three decades ago, the agency says. License revenue is in the same budget line as state park passes and “other fees,” a category that accounts for 56 percent of CPW funding. Salaries and benefits make up most agency expenses, accounting for 42 percent of its spending. Operating costs make up 25 percent, finance reports show. 
— 22 million: Acres for public hunting in Colorado. These include 11 national forests, encompassing the state’s highest elevations and most diverse wildlife habitats. . . .  
— 228,390: Tags sold for elk, by far the most hunted mammal in Colorado. 
— 88,710: Elk, deer and pronghorn tags sold to non-residents. Out-of-staters also can put their names in the lottery for rarer licenses. 
— 1 percent: Chance to have your name drawn to hunt Colorado’s more famous and elusive animals: bighorn sheep, moose and mountain goats. 
— 11: Tags sold for desert sheep, the least sought among the state’s big game. The next lowest? The 202 licenses sold for mountain goats, followed by 301 for bighorn sheep and 350 for moose. 
— 677: Mountain lions that can be harvested this season, which runs through March. Last fiscal year, 2,374 cat tags were sold over the counter. 
— 7: Percent of success bear hunters had last year. CPW reported 1,264 harvested among the 18,109 who tried. 
— 116,729: Small-game hunting tags sold. That includes for rabbits, bobcats, foxes, coyotes and waterfowl. 
— 0: Tags sold for prairie chicken. The lesser prairie chicken is on the state’s endangered species list, and the greater prairie chicken can only be hunted in northeast Colorado, with a maximum of two per shooter.
From here.

20 November 2018

Life In A Bubble

I am well aware that I live in something of a bubble that insulated me from Christian conservatives. I'm aware that they are out there and I have no desire to interact with them socially. I think that their morals are deplorable and their lifestyle is self-destructive.

I've unfriended conservative on Facebook except for a few extended family members.

I live and work in the central part of a major central city in mostly affluent, liberal leaning neighborhoods. I rarely rub shoulders with farmers or blue collar workers in my personal life (although I do often enough in my professional life and do have cousins who are part of that world).

When I get news, I get it from the New York Times, CNN, the Denver Post, NPR and other bastions of the "mainstream media" which the right avoids because they think these sources have a liberal bias. I don't rely on Fox News, the least accurate of the big television networks which has a conservative slant.

When I watch entertainment programming, I am more likely to watch Marvel than D.C. Comics (the more liberal of the two major comic publishers). I am more inclined to watch the Santa Clarita Diet than I am NCIS. I enjoyed Remington Steele and Miami Vice more than Walker Texas Ranger.

When I listen to music, it is rock, or classical, or jazz, but almost never country music. I prefer a nightclub with house music or EDM to country line dancing or square dancing.

I am repulsed by the Confederate battle flag and Confederate monuments, even though I eat grits, biscuits and gravy, chicken friend steak, jambalaya, and other Southern foods (at least when I'm not on a diet). 

I drive an SUV or a small city car, not a pickup truck or a muscle car.

I have no problem if my children end up having relationships with someone of another race or the same sex, but would have to bite my tongue if one of them ended up with a conservative Christian Republican (something that fortunately appears to be a remote possibility given the friends and more than friends whom they have let us know about so far).

When it comes to sports and outdoor activities, I'd rather watch cricket than car racing. I'd rather hike than hunt. I prefer sailboats to motorboats. You'd have to pay me to watch WWF Wrestling, but I've spent time swimming in the ocean at several different Mexican resorts.

I am highly educated in both STEM and law, and trust knowledge obtained from academics and scientists. I even read scholarly journal articles in both science and non-science fields on a regular basis.

Almost all of my relatives went to college and most people that I know attended at least some college. My father went to graduate school at Stanford. My mother went to graduate school at the University of Chicago. I attended a top ten law school, and both my wife and my sister in law have master's degrees. Both of my wife's parents are medical doctors. My brother and I and our wives and my sister in law all attended selective liberal arts colleges, and my daughter is attending one right now. My sister in law's husband is a college graduate from an upper class New York City family. 

I do have friends from high school and before who didn't go to college including a few who went into the military. And, my father and his brother both served in the Army, I have a step-niece who is in the military, and my father in law served his required tour of duty in the South Korean military (all of them in peacetime). My best man at my wedding served in the National Guard (again, without being deployed). But, military service is mostly outside of my world and I specifically opted out of having military recruiters contract my children. The only extended family member who died in a war was a distant cousin who died in Vietnam. My patriline ancestor who came to the U.S. from Europe did so to dodge the draft in 1847. I couldn't identify someone's military rank by looking at their uniform, although I know far more about the military than most liberals of my social class.

I've never been arrested, but have been let of with warnings after traffic stops where I could have been ticketed or arrested several times. I've never bailed anyone out of jail. My entire legal experience with the criminal law first hand involves a few minor traffic tickets that were pleaded out and an appeal of a dog ordinance sanction from a municipal court. I don't fear for my physical safety when I walk around my neighborhood at night, even though I've been robbed at gunpoint right in front of my house, had a bike stolen off my front porch despite a bike lock, and had my car broken into two or three times. I usually lock my doors, but not without fail. The only people I knew growing up who have ever been to prison were school bullies. One was a rural poor kid who together with his big brothers beat up me and my friend in junior high school, he later went to federal prison for stealing social security checks. Another was a peer for a college professor father who went to prison for dealing drugs.

I would never report someone for drinking alcohol underage, using illegal drugs, being an adult prostitute or patronizing one, or an immigration violation, unless that tool were necessary to remove someone who was also a violent threat from my life or the life of a loved one. I don't consider any of those violations of the law to be in any way immoral or wrong, except for that fact that doing those things exposes you to law enforcement scrutiny.

My family has never been without health insurance, although we've had to pay dearly for it at times. We've never gone hungry. We've never been homeless. We've always had computers and books in our home, and we've had high speed internet access at home for as long as that has been a thing. We've always had a car. We've never had to share our home with extended family or another family for any extended period of time. I've never smoked tobacco and never had a drinking problem or a drug addiction.

I am an atheist who hasn't attended church except at Christmas for about nineteen years, except that my wife and I had briefly tried a Unitarian-Universalist church when our kids were elementary school aged (I maintain an affiliation with the American Humanist Association which historically emerged out of the Unitarian-Universalist denomination). I attended a church that was part of the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) when I lived in Grand Junction, Colorado for a few years (mostly the evening service), the Korean language services at a Korean Presbyterian Church when I lived in Buffalo, an Episcopal Church in college, and an ELCA Lutheran Church (and some of its pre-merger antecedents) growing up. Basically, my upbringing was in mainline Protestant churches, although the Korean Presbyterian Church had a bit of an Evangelical flavor culturally and a bit of a Confucian ethical substrate.

My interactions with the Roman Catholic Church have mostly been in scholarship (religious and secular), music, art, weddings and funerals. I've only attended Pentecostal Churches once or twice, once at an Assemblies of God Church that my in laws belonged to. Likewise I've had only rare and sporadic direct encounters with Evangelical Christian churches, the Mormon religion, and black Christian churches. My kids have probably spent as much time as Jewish religious services (bar mitzvahs and bat mitzvahs, and funerals, for example) as they have at Christian ones (mostly Christmas with my grandparents). I am not unaware of Muslims in my community and have some sense of what goes on in Muslim religious rites (in part from a couple of classes I took in college), but I haven't had much contact with that either. And, I likewise have little contract with Hindu religious practice, something that I mostly know about through television, movies and anthropology.  

30 October 2018

Musings On Relevance And Litigation Expenses

This post was mostly written on November 12, 2015.

TL;DR

One of the most powerful ways to make courts reach reasonable fair decisions quickly and at a relatively modest cost is to narrow the scope of the evidence that substantive law considers to be relevant to enforcing rights and resolving disputes.

Analysis

It is common place to blame lawyers or their clients for the fact that civil litigation is slow and expensive. But, a great deal of the blame really needs to be laid to placed upon the substantive and procedural law involved, and upon the underfunding of the public sector component of the judicial dispute resolution process.

Contrary to popular belief, the law is not simply a set of clear rules that can be called quickly and easily by a judge and all the participants, as players and umpires do in sports.

Often, the substantive law is inherently vague, setting forth standards rather than rules.  And, even when the law is not inherently vague, the proper application of the law to the facts is often ambiguous.

It doesn't help that civil procedure allows for clarification of how the law applies to a particular set of facts, in all but the clearest cases, until after all of the facts have been developed and presented to a tribunal.  Jury instructions, for example, are rarely finalized until all of the evidence in the case has been presented.

The rules of civil procedure generally allow the formal process of investigating the facts, known as "discovery" to extend not only to evidence that is relevant, but also to evidence that is reasonably calculated to lead to relevant evidence, even if it is not itself relevant to the dispute.

At a trial in a court, only relevant evidence is admissible, but the standard for what constitutes relevant evidence is a loose one, subject only to a handful of specific exceptions.

In an arbitration hearing, the standard for what evidence is considered relevant is loose indeed.  The American Arbitration Association rules, as they are usually applied, allow almost any evidence related in any way to the dispute to be considered, even if it does not meet the loose standard of relevance to an element of a legal theory applied in a court setting, on the theory that a legally trained arbitrator will not be swayed by legally irrelevant evidence.

Some of this bias towards loose rules of discovery (some judges sum up this attitude by saying that they are "full discovery" judges),  and loose relevance boundaries on the admissibility of evidence, is driven by underinvestment in judicial resources.

Judicial engagement in a case earlier on in litigation to carefully analyze the legal issues presented and to narrow the scope of discovery and subsequent hearing evidence only to the matters that are really legally relevant is much more time consuming than allowing the parties to exchange information and present evidence at trial with minimal judicial intervention, even if this dramatically increases the cost of the litigation to the parties.

Given the extreme emphasis on the finality of decisions in private civil litigation, and an even greater emphasis on finality in arbitration settings, rational litigants need to prepare for every possible interpretation of the law or determination that facts could be relevant, even if that possibility is fairly remote.  Presentations at trial, and pre-trial discovery and presentations, could be dramatically shorter, if judges and arbitrators made clear at the outset which of many ambiguous interpretations of the law regarding what is relevant were provided.

It is also the case, particularly in a court forum, that it often simply takes a long time for a judge to rule on pending matters particularly at the higher end of the judicial hierarchy in general jurisdiction trial courts and in appellate practice.  This isn't a case of judges being lazy.  It is simply a case of a systemic underinvestment in judges relevant to the benefit which society would receive from having enough judges to produce more prompt rulings and to have a great ability to be involved in a case at its early stages.

In those rare areas where the scope of what is relevant at a particular stage of a case is narrow and well defined, such as in a foreclosure or eviction hearing, or an action to regain possession of tangible personal property, hearings can be quite short, can be held quickly, and can be resolved quickly and inexpensively.

In part, this is also because those decisions are highly structured.  In a foreclosure or eviction hearing, for example, the sole inquiry is usually whether there is a default in payments or in other contractual obligations which justifies the remedy sought, not a determination regarding the exact amount owed, which is deferred to a later date if a breach of the agreement is found to exist.

Similarly, in criminal cases, which are often decided quite swiftly, the sole decision presented to a judge or jury at trial is usually whether a criminal statute has been violated in a single, well defined incident, not the punishment that is appropriate to impose if indeed this is the case.

07 September 2018

Pro-Basketball Players Are Not Mutants

Do very tall people like pro-basketball players have special genetics mutations that make them really tall?

Or, do they just have a nearly complete collection of the common genetic variants that tend to make people taller as a matter of more or less random chance?

The answer is the latter. 

All of the height of a very tall pro-basketball player whose genome was examined (citing this study) can be explained by having an above average (at the 4.2 standard deviation level, which is 198 more than the average) proportion of the 2,910 known common height related genes that favor greater height (technically speaking, this is actually 198 more than the average proportion of 2,910 "single nucleotide polymorphisms" a.k.a. SNPs, rather than "genes" in the narrow technical sense of that word).

These individuals just happen to be at the extreme end of the bell curve for height.

31 December 2017

The Broncos Aren't Going To The Playoffs

The Denver Broncos lost their final game of the season today, leaving them with a 5-11 record for the year, fourth in the AFC West.

How the mighty have fallen after days in the Superbowl and with near misses.

At least we aren't the worst in the AFC or the NFL. That dishonor would fall to the Cleveland Browns who have a 0-16 record this season.

21 May 2017

How Long Is A Marathon In Imperial And Metric Units?

A marathon has an official distance of 42,195 meters (42.195 km), which is 26.219 miles (a.k.a. 26 miles, 385 yards). The approximation commonly seen on car stickers in the U.S., 26.2 [miles], is 33 yards too short. The three significant digit approximation in metric units: 42.2 [km] is 5 meters too long.

The distance is rooted in a Greek legend from the historic era.

16 February 2017

College Football Results Influence Juvenile Sentence Lengths

Judges are human and their discretionary decisions, like sentence lengths, are influenced by their moods. This is an important counterpart to the reasons in favor of giving judges wide discretion.
Employing the universe of juvenile court decisions in a U.S. state between 1996 and 2012, we analyze the effects of emotional shocks associated with unexpected outcomes of football games played by a prominent college team in the state. We investigate the behavior of judges, the conduct of whom should, by law, be free of personal biases and emotions. We find that unexpected losses increase disposition (sentence) lengths assigned by judges during the week following the game. Unexpected wins, or losses that were expected to be close contests ex-ante, have no impact. 
The effects of these emotional shocks are asymmetrically borne by black defendants. We present evidence that the results are not influenced by defendant or attorney behavior or by defendants’ economic background. Importantly, the results are driven by judges who have received their bachelor’s degrees from the university with which the football team is affiliated. Different falsification tests and a number of auxiliary analyses demonstrate the robustness of the findings. 
These results provide evidence for the impact of emotions in one domain on a behavior in a completely unrelated domain among a uniformly highly-educated group of individuals (judges), with decisions involving high stakes (sentence lengths). They also point to the existence of a subtle and previously-unnoticed capricious application of sentencing.
Naci Mocan and Ozkan Eren, "Emotional Judges and Unlucky Juveniles" (February 14, 2017).

08 February 2016

Endings

Yesterday was the end of my colleague Matt Nelson's life.

A week earlier was another ending, the death of my father, whose funeral was last Friday.  At the funeral, I was reminded of the death of my relative (maternal great-uncle?) Gordon's recent passing at the age of 101.  He survived his wife Erma by 20 years.  Gordon and Erma had lived across the street from the Lutheran church that my mother attended as a child for many decades and were an extra set of grandparents for my brother and I.

Yesterday was the end of the professional football season culminating in the glorious victory of the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50 (Super Bowl L for those of you who think they should have stuck to Roman numerals), and likely the end of Denver quarterback Peyton Manning's storied career including the most lifetime wins as a quarter back (200), four tries at the Super Bowl (two wins, two losses), and being the oldest quarterback to lead a Super Bowl team (at 39 years old).  It was a remarkable game.  The Carolina Panthers who were favored to win after losing just one game all season ran some of the most innovative offensive plays in the NFL, featuring lots of quarterback rushing yards, lateral passing and unusual formations.  But, they did themselves no favors with an avalanche of penalties in the second half and were put down soundly by the most effective defense in the NFL (the most valuable player was a Broncos defender and one of the Broncos two touch downs was scored by a member of the defensive team following a turnover) and by the Broncos smart, measured offense.  Lady Gaga proved she could deliver a powerful straight line with the national anthem.  Coldplay's halftime performance was so poor that it will probably hurt their upcoming tour, but was rescued by outstanding performances by Bruno Mars and Beyonce who quite frankly belted not only their own lyrics but also Coldplay's better than their front man. It is the third Broncos Super Bowl in franchise history and oddly reminiscent of the Super Bowl win by John Elway who was himself the oldest Super Bowl quarterback at the time.  Congratulations Broncos! There will be a celebratory parade in downtown Denver from Union Station along 17th Street to Broadway and south to Civic Center tomorrow.

Yesterday was the last day of the East Asian Lunar Year (the lunar calendars used by Jews and Muslims also originate in Asia, even though we more often call it the Near East).  Today is the first day of the year of the Monkey, although celebrations in Taiwan have been muted due to an earthquake that flattened a high rise apartment building, killing several dozen.  About 170 people had escaped alive and another 110 were trapped there or missing as this new year dawned.  The new day will see how many of the rest will live.

Last week was the last pre-primary Republican debate. Tomorrow is the first in the nation New Hampshire primary, in which hometown hero Bernie Sanders is sure to prevail by a large margin among Democrats, and in which Republicans will attempt to cull an overcrowded field.  Hope springs eternal that some of the candidates who are far back in the pack in both Iowa and New Hampshire will decide to throw in the towel at that point, allowing support that has been spread among a variety of "establishment" candidates to coalesce among fewer individuals so that they party can decide who to support for the rest of the contests this spring.

Posting frequency will probably be light here and at sister blog Dispatches From Turtle Island, as I assimilate the endings.

24 January 2016

Superbowl!

After a long season of close calls, the Broncos nonetheless delivered the goods and will be going to the Superbowl.  My brother's team, the Patriots, were crushed.  The Broncos' Superbowl adversary will be determined later this evening.

05 January 2016

Rubik's Cube, Faces and Language



Rubik's Cube

My colleague at work likes to use the Rubik's Cube as a metaphor for the difficulty of solving hihgly interrelated problems.  I'm personally fascinated by a quite different element of the 1980s fad toy.

A Rubik's Cube is virtually impossible to solve at all, let alone solve in a reasonable time, without instruction from a book, video or teacher.  Maybe one in a million people are capable of solving it, and the people who did so the first time were mostly graduate students in mathematics who spent weeks or months figuring out how to do it the first time.

Yet, with instruction, almost anyone with average or above average spatial ability and intelligence can solve it (I'd guess that at least 25% to 35% of the population, and quite possibly twice that percentage, are capable of learning to solve it).

Indeed, not only can someone solve it with instruction, but just about anyone who can learn to solve it can do so in a matter of a few minutes or less.  I learned how to do it when I was tween in small town Ohio with a little time on my hands and an illustrated pamphlet about 40 to 60 pages long.  It took a week or two to learn, and a month or so to get to the point where I was able to do it quickly enough to solve it in competitions where I had a fighting chance of at least placing against others who had mastered it.  I was never that great at it, but with less than 100 hours of instruction, my personal record for the amount of time it took me to solve it was within 30 seconds or so of the world record at the time.

For me, the Rubik's Cube is type case for problems that are virtually impossible to solve without instruction, which are easy for very unexceptional people to solve with only modest amounts of instruction.

Another important aspect of the skill of learning to solve a Rubik's Cube is that one of the keys to doing it is to learn a specialized, highly logical language with a dozen or so symbols with which particular manipulations of a Rubik's Cube are described.  Then, the solution consists of learning a dozen or so "sentences" that can be put together using that language and learning when to use each "sentence."

For what it is worth, it is a skill that requires regular practice.  I couldn't solve one if you handed it to me today, several decades after my Rubik's Cube solving hey day, but I could probably relearn the task now in a few hours on a long weekend.

Other Rubik's Cube Tasks

There are other tasks that are similar to the Rubik's Cube although not quite so impossible to master without instruction, and not quite so easy to master with instruction.

One is riding a bike.  Another is doing an inward dive from a diving board or platform.  Two far less specific tasks which have a linguistic or quasi-linguistic element to them are reading music well enough to sight read, and learning to make realistic free hand drawings.

Maybe 25% of people who play an instrument in high school, and maybe 10% of people who sing in organized choirs, can sight read music, even though again, the number of symbols involved is modest and almost everyone who is regularly involved in playing music know what the symbols mean in principle.  But, it is certainly a skill that can be taught and doesn't take many thousands of hours to master.  Many musicians who haven't already mastered the skill learn to do it in college in a single course for a semester or two.

The vast majority of people are not functionally literate in the written language of music, even though a very large percentage of people are quite capable of singing music that they are learned by ear, even though most people know what all of the common symbols used in musical notation mean in principle.

The counterintuitive thing about realistic free hand drawing, which can be learned in a year or two or less depending on how intensively you work at it and the quality of your instruction, is that it has very little to do with manual dexterity.  If you can type, print clearly, and trace an image using tracing paper, you have sufficient manual dexterity to do realistic free hand drawing.  The skill is almost entirely mental and basically involves nothing more than drawing what you actually see, rather than what you conceptually think that you are seeing after processing the image.  If you can shortcut the image analysis circuits in your brain, you can do realistic free hand drawing with only modest additional instruction in techniques like shading and attention to lighting.

But, being able to do realistic free hand drawing is an uncommon skill, I'd guess that fewer than 5%-10% of the population can do it at the high end, in part, because we erroneously tend to think of realistic free hand drawing as an inherited talent, rather than a skill.

The vast majority of people are not functionally literate, or even barely literate in expressing themselves in writing though realistic drawings.

Literacy is a good frame for thinking about this because it captures the power of the idea.  Once you have a vocabulary for describing something, you can think about it in much more efficient and powerful ways.  One of the biggest examples of this comes from deaf people who were not taught sign language as children.  They simply cannot do things like think about what other people are thinking until they learn a sign language that has words for these concepts.  Then, suddenly, those ideas blossom and their minds are opened to whole new categories of understanding and experience.

I think that expanding literacy and vocabulary into other areas could produce similar revelatory discoveries for average people.

Faces and Language

Almost everyone, easily more than 98% of the population, is very, very good at recognizing faces and interpreting facial expressions.  For example, almost everyone who isn't physically blind, or neurologically face blind can pick their own face and the faces of their friends out of group portrait or a crowd of people waiting to greet people leaving an airport in a matter of moments.  Even with a fairly brief chance to see someone's face clearly, the average person, even if they can't remember that person's name, could pick them out of a lineup of pictures.

We've learned from forensic cases that people are less accurate in identifying strangers and people of different races than they are at identifying casual acquaintances and in general people of the same race.  But, we're still very good at it and many humans are better than any computer system in existence at this task.

What we are not at all good at is communicating faces accurately to others in an efficient manner.  As noted above, the ability to communicate a face in writing by drawing it is uncommon.

Most people can say some rudimentary things about a face that they have seen, many of which are in the form of conclusions reached after analyzing the face rather than in the form of a description of the face that they have seen itself.  They can say that face looked happy or pleased or disgusted or sad. They can identify the race and gender and approximate age of most faces. They might be able to distinguish between someone who is fat or thin, chiseled or baby faced.

But, very few people can actually affirmatively describe a person's face with sufficient specificity, for example, to pick it out of a picture of a bunch of kids of the same race, gender, and age in a group portrait of the kids of a school sport's team or club.

There are people who work for police departments who specialize in helping people to communicate a face that they recognize in their mind's eye by sketching according to the observer's description and adjusting the sketch until they get it approximately right over a period of hours.

But, virtually no one, with the possible exception of experienced police sketch artists, physical anthropologists and medical doctors who work with faces regularly, can verbally communicate a face in even a few sentences in a way that someone else can understand well enough to identify that person in a crowd of demographically similar people without seeing a sketch drawn from those instructions.

While we almost all have the inherent ability to recognize faces with a high degree of accuracy, something like 99.9% of people are incapable of articulating that information verbally in an efficient manner without reference to sketches, and something like 90% of people are incapable of communicating that knowledge in writing without expert assistance.

My intuition is that the fact that people are so inarticulate is low hanging fruit that is a Rubik's Cube problem that could be solved by developing a logical language with which to describe faces precisely that could be taught as easily as sight reading music, free hand drawing, mathematical notation, the International Phonetic Alphabet, or a variety of similar tasks, in tens or hundreds of thousand, rather than thousands or tens of thousands of hours.

This is a mind hack waiting to be invented that would have wide utility, but which no one has really articulated and put their mind to, and it really is a "hack".  The key to developing a vocabulary that would communicate information from the facial recognition centers of our brain to others efficiently is to gain a good understanding of how the facial recognition centers of our brain actually "code" and process that information so that the vocabulary of facial identification would track that approach as closely as feasible.

On one hand, this seems doable.  You don't need a general vocabulary for describing all visual input accurately, just one sufficient to describe one highly specialized kind of visual input.  And, almost all of us already have the intuitive, if inarticulate, ability to understand and process this kind of input accurately and quickly.

On the other hand, I suspect that the vocabulary needed to describe faces accurately may be larger than the vocabulary needed, for example, to describe colors or music.  Teaching computers to do this has been a very challenging task and computers very likely process this information in a much different manner than the facial recognition centers of our brains do.

But, it is a worthwhile task to take on, and one that a small interdisciplinary team of investigators, with a modest budget, and some good insights could probably tackle the challenge of creating a good working vocabulary with which to describe faces precisely in a couple of decades.  And, if they were successful, the practical payoffs could be huge.  This is a project that is worth throwing a few tens of millions of dollars at to see what can be accomplished.

In time, learning the vocabulary of facial recognition, learning to sight read music, learning to make realistic free hand drawings, could all become nearly universal aspects of a basic education for someone who is considered a functional literate normal adult, just as learning to ride a bike, to speak and write and read in one's native language, and driving a car are today.